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December Weather In the PNW

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#151
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:53 PM

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We will have a lot of frost next week.

I won’t believe it until I see picture evidence of Tims frosty dead (dormant) roses.
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#152
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 12:17 AM

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I won’t believe it until I see picture evidence of Tims frosty dead (dormant) roses.

LOL



#153
pscz1140

Posted 02 December 2017 - 02:09 AM

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It's gonna be worth the wait.

 

Not sure about his libido, but somehow Tiger is in 5th place heading into the weekend. I peed next to him about 20 years ago at the MGM in Vegas. One of the top 10 moments of my life....

 

.....and in weather news, I'm freezing my a** off right now. Went out to the bars tonight in a thin shirt and no jacket in hopes that would impress the ladies. Since I'm posting on a weather forum right now we all know how that worked out :)


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#154
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 02 December 2017 - 02:09 AM

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I won’t believe it until I see picture evidence of Tims frosty dead (dormant) roses.

With a newspaper

#155
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 03:20 AM

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6z GFS made me want to poop in a shoe, then put it on, lace 'em up, and then go jogging in a giant field of endless dog and horse s**t while The Chariots of Fire theme song is blared on loudspeakers. Yeah, it was that good.

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#156
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:22 AM

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12z GFS in 2 minutes!



#157
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:35 AM

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Looks like the Pivotal site is slow again. No idea why.



#158
TT-SEA

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:39 AM

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With a newspaper

 

Their blooming days are about over now!  


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#159
Deweydog

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:53 AM

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Looks like the Pivotal site is slow again. No idea why.


Tax reform.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#160
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:57 AM

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Looks like the Pivotal site is slow again. No idea why.

It’s okay. We aren’t close to anything good right now anyway

#161
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:02 AM

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Tax reform.

Of course.



#162
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:05 AM

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12z GFS Day 5

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_21.png



#163
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Day 6

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_25.png



#164
Farmboy

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:12 AM

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I have the good fortune to be spending this winter on the Alvord ranch on the east side of Steens mountain. This is one of the most interesting microclimates I've ever seen. While at the same elevation as Burns, it's usually 4-5, sometimes 7 or more degrees warmer. Tonight's forecast calls for rain changing over to snow at some point overnight tonight. Don't think it'll be much, but still nice to see. It'll be interesting to see how cold it gets with the developing cold pool...
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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#165
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:20 AM

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Day 7

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_29.png



#166
Farmboy

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:26 AM

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Day 7
gfs_z500_mslp_npac_29.png

. Westerlies are just itching to undercut that ridge...
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#167
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:26 AM

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Day 8

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_33.png



#168
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:29 AM

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Day 8
gfs_z500_mslp_npac_33.png

She’s a beauty. Too bad it’s not July or August.
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#169
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:30 AM

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I have the good fortune to be spending this winter on the Alvord ranch on the east side of Steens mountain. This is one of the most interesting microclimates I've ever seen. While at the same elevation as Burns, it's usually 4-5, sometimes 7 or more degrees warmer. Tonight's forecast calls for rain changing over to snow at some point overnight tonight. Don't think it'll be much, but still nice to see. It'll be interesting to see how cold it gets with the developing cold pool...

 

Sounds like an amazing experience.


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#170
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:33 AM

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Day 9

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_37.png



#171
TT-SEA

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:34 AM

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She’s a beauty. Too bad it’s not July or August.

 

No doubt!    

 

This is an ugly pattern for December.   

 

Some of the analogs from the 00Z GFS included December 1985 after all the fun in November of that year... and early December of 1976... and early December of 2002.     :wacko:



#172
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:41 AM

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.... andddddd Day 10

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_41.png



#173
Kayla

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:46 AM

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Pretty amazing that we continue to maintain the block through the period. Haven't seen that in December for a while.


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 157.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 14.0"

Highest snow depth: 36.0"

Coldest high: -4.0º
Coldest low: -22.0º

Number of subzero days: 26

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#174
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:46 AM

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12z CMC stronger block, more sturdy/upright and strong east winds for 7+ days. That seems to follow the ensembles very well.

 

Day 5

gem_z500_mslp_npac_21.png

 

Day 7

gem_z500_mslp_npac_29.png

 

 

Day 10
gem_z500_mslp_npac_41.png


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#175
Kayla

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:48 AM

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12z CMC stronger block and strong east winds for 7+ days. That seems to follow the ensembles very well.

 

Yeah and for what it's worth the CMC has been scoring quite a bit better than the GFS lately. Of course the ECMWF continues to lead the way.


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 157.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 14.0"

Highest snow depth: 36.0"

Coldest high: -4.0º
Coldest low: -22.0º

Number of subzero days: 26

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#176
Farmboy

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:49 AM

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Sounds like an amazing experience.



It is. The people here tell me last winter featured a 3 foot snow pack that lasted for an entire month in the January-February time frame. I don't think this winter will quite match that, but there should still be at least something of interest in the snow department...
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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#177
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:51 AM

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Yeah and for what it's worth the CMC has been scoring quite a bit better than the GFS lately. Of course the ECMWF continues to lead the way.

Oh yeah the CMC is nearly superior to the GFS anymore. I would lean towards persistent blocking rather than the GFS Op tinkering with the westerlies undercutting block by day 8-10+


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#178
stuffradio

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:56 AM

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12Z GFS starts building a SE ridge at the end of the run.

 

Attached File  gfs_z500aNorm_namer_53.png   183.48KB   2 downloads


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#179
BLI snowman

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:03 AM

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12z lame



#180
Farmboy

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:04 AM

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12Z GFS starts building a SE ridge at the end of the run.

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_53.png

Baby steps...
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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#181
Deweydog

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:11 AM

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Phil says it's a clear case of disingenuous retrogression.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#182
Front Ranger

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:21 AM

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Flatiron is mad that you don’t have DVDs from February 2006 instead.


Nostalgia is a wonderful/terrible thing.

Feb 2006 was very windy in Tacoma!

It's just the internet. Don't take it personal.


#183
stuffradio

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:22 AM

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Nostalgia is a wonderful/terrible thing.

Feb 2006 was very windy in Tacoma!

November 2006 destroyed a bunch of trees in Stanley park.



#184
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:23 AM

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12z GEFS says the Op is an outlier


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#185
Jesse

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:33 AM

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I have the good fortune to be spending this winter on the Alvord ranch on the east side of Steens mountain. This is one of the most interesting microclimates I've ever seen. While at the same elevation as Burns, it's usually 4-5, sometimes 7 or more degrees warmer. Tonight's forecast calls for rain changing over to snow at some point overnight tonight. Don't think it'll be much, but still nice to see. It'll be interesting to see how cold it gets with the developing cold pool...


Wow, jealous. The Steens Mountain area has long been on my bucket list. You’ll have to keep us posted over the winter. How is internet out there? :lol:

#186
westcoastexpat

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:36 AM

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I'm getting 2013-14 flashbacks with the ridge that won't die.  :angry:



#187
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

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I'm getting 2013-14 flashbacks with the ridge that won't die. :angry:


I'm fine with a 13-14 redux

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#188
BLI snowman

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

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I'm getting 2013-14 flashbacks with the ridge that won't die.  :angry:

 

I was just thinking how much the 12z reminded me of December 2013.


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#189
MossMan

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:47 AM

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How funny and sad would it be if the ridge just parked itself right over us until mid March!

#190
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:49 AM

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How funny and sad would it be if the ridge just parked itself right over us until mid March!

#Drought

#191
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:54 AM

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12/2/17 Teleconnections Indices Forecast

 

4indices.png



#192
Guest_happ_*

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:55 AM

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12/2/17 Teleconnections Indices Forecast

 

4indices.png

 

Thanks for posting graphs/ model updates   :)


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#193
Guest_happ_*

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:58 AM

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I was just thinking how much the 12z reminded me of December 2013.

 

Not a good memory!



#194
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:58 AM

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Thanks for posting graphs/ model updates   :)

No problem you're welcome.



#195
umadbro

Posted 02 December 2017 - 10:00 AM

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If February 2014 happened again, I'd call the winter a success.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#196
Guest_happ_*

Posted 02 December 2017 - 10:02 AM

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No problem you're welcome.

 

I am lazy and haven't always had good Internet connection on some sites. These daily updates are appreciated by all.  


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#197
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 December 2017 - 10:06 AM

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If February 2014 happened again, I'd call the winter a success.

What about the poor Puget Sound people?

#198
umadbro

Posted 02 December 2017 - 10:09 AM

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What about the poor Puget Sound people?


I pull for them. But I don't get all jesse'd if it doesn't happen.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#199
DJ Droppin

Posted 02 December 2017 - 10:09 AM

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... Big East Winds PDX Metro east of I-205/Gorge ...

 

PDX-DLS -11mb. Combine that with the strong inversion and east winds for those east of I-205/Gorge will be very strong.

 

10 AM Wednesday

slp.102.0000.gif

 

 

12km Time Height. 50-55kts just above the surface. VERY strong east winds Wednesday. Wind Advisory likely needed and maybe a HWWarning? perhaps.

kpdx.x.th.gif



#200
stuffradio

Posted 02 December 2017 - 10:11 AM

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How funny and sad would it be if the ridge just parked itself right over us until mid March!

Comeback Kids: Blob edition