December Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Farmboy]

I have the good fortune to be spending this winter on the Alvord ranch on the east side of Steens mountain. This is one of the most interesting microclimates I've ever seen. While at the same elevation as Burns, it's usually 4-5, sometimes 7 or more degrees warmer. Tonight's forecast calls for rain changing over to snow at some point overnight tonight. Don't think it'll be much, but still nice to see. It'll be interesting to see how cold it gets with the developing cold pool...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Farmboy]

Day 7

. Westerlies are just itching to undercut that ridge...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[ShawniganLake]

Day 8

She’s a beauty. Too bad it’s not July or August.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have the good fortune to be spending this winter on the Alvord ranch on the east side of Steens mountain. This is one of the most interesting microclimates I've ever seen. While at the same elevation as Burns, it's usually 4-5, sometimes 7 or more degrees warmer. Tonight's forecast calls for rain changing over to snow at some point overnight tonight. Don't think it'll be much, but still nice to see. It'll be interesting to see how cold it gets with the developing cold pool...

 

Sounds like an amazing experience.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

[TT-SEA]

She’s a beauty. Too bad it’s not July or August.

 

No doubt!    

 

This is an ugly pattern for December.   

 

Some of the analogs from the 00Z GFS included December 1985 after all the fun in November of that year... and early December of 1976... and early December of 2002.    

[Gradient Keeper]

.... andddddd Day 10

[Kayla]

Pretty amazing that we continue to maintain the block through the period. Haven't seen that in December for a while.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMC stronger block, more sturdy/upright and strong east winds for 7+ days. That seems to follow the ensembles very well.

 

Day 5

 

Day 7

 

 

Day 10

[Kayla]

12z CMC stronger block and strong east winds for 7+ days. That seems to follow the ensembles very well.

 

Yeah and for what it's worth the CMC has been scoring quite a bit better than the GFS lately. Of course the ECMWF continues to lead the way.

[Farmboy]

Sounds like an amazing experience.

 

It is. The people here tell me last winter featured a 3 foot snow pack that lasted for an entire month in the January-February time frame. I don't think this winter will quite match that, but there should still be at least something of interest in the snow department...

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah and for what it's worth the CMC has been scoring quite a bit better than the GFS lately. Of course the ECMWF continues to lead the way.

Oh yeah the CMC is nearly superior to the GFS anymore. I would lean towards persistent blocking rather than the GFS Op tinkering with the westerlies undercutting block by day 8-10+

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS starts building a SE ridge at the end of the run.

 

[BLI snowman]

12z lame

[Farmboy]

12Z GFS starts building a SE ridge at the end of the run.

 

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_53.png

Baby steps...

[Deweydog]

Phil says it's a clear case of disingenuous retrogression.

[Front Ranger]

Flatiron is mad that you don’t have DVDs from February 2006 instead.

Nostalgia is a wonderful/terrible thing.

 

Feb 2006 was very windy in Tacoma!

[stuffradio]

Nostalgia is a wonderful/terrible thing.

 

Feb 2006 was very windy in Tacoma!

November 2006 destroyed a bunch of trees in Stanley park.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS says the Op is an outlier

[Jesse]

I have the good fortune to be spending this winter on the Alvord ranch on the east side of Steens mountain. This is one of the most interesting microclimates I've ever seen. While at the same elevation as Burns, it's usually 4-5, sometimes 7 or more degrees warmer. Tonight's forecast calls for rain changing over to snow at some point overnight tonight. Don't think it'll be much, but still nice to see. It'll be interesting to see how cold it gets with the developing cold pool...

Wow, jealous. The Steens Mountain area has long been on my bucket list. You’ll have to keep us posted over the winter. How is internet out there?

[westcoastexpat]

I'm getting 2013-14 flashbacks with the ridge that won't die. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm getting 2013-14 flashbacks with the ridge that won't die.

I'm fine with a 13-14 redux

[BLI snowman]

I'm getting 2013-14 flashbacks with the ridge that won't die. 

 

I was just thinking how much the 12z reminded me of December 2013.

[MossMan]

How funny and sad would it be if the ridge just parked itself right over us until mid March!

[ShawniganLake]

How funny and sad would it be if the ridge just parked itself right over us until mid March!

#Drought

[Gradient Keeper]

12/2/17 Teleconnections Indices Forecast

 

[Guest happ]

12/2/17 Teleconnections Indices Forecast

 

 

Thanks for posting graphs/ model updates  

[Guest happ]

I was just thinking how much the 12z reminded me of December 2013.

 

Not a good memory!

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks for posting graphs/ model updates  

No problem you're welcome.

[umadbro]

If February 2014 happened again, I'd call the winter a success.

[Guest happ]

No problem you're welcome.

 

I am lazy and haven't always had good Internet connection on some sites. These daily updates are appreciated by all.  

[ShawniganLake]

If February 2014 happened again, I'd call the winter a success.

What about the poor Puget Sound people?

[umadbro]

What about the poor Puget Sound people?

I pull for them. But I don't get all jesse'd if it doesn't happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

... Big East Winds PDX Metro east of I-205/Gorge ...

 

PDX-DLS -11mb. Combine that with the strong inversion and east winds for those east of I-205/Gorge will be very strong.

 

10 AM Wednesday

 

 

12km Time Height. 50-55kts just above the surface. VERY strong east winds Wednesday. Wind Advisory likely needed and maybe a HWWarning? perhaps.

[stuffradio]

How funny and sad would it be if the ridge just parked itself right over us until mid March!

Comeback Kids: Blob edition

[Gradient Keeper]

You're just going to love the 12z CMCE Ensembles. LOL ENDLESS ridging