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December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!

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#1
jaster220

Posted 05 December 2017 - 01:42 PM

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GRR has issued the first of what may be quite a string of WWA's for certain SWMI counties. I take their maps with a grain of salt east of Kalamazoo due to a lot of personal let-downs. But, it does look good to at least get my first measurable snow of the winter  :)

 

Attached File  20171205 GRR pm snowfall graphic.png   235.69KB   0 downloads


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#2
Tom

Posted 05 December 2017 - 03:38 PM

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Thanks for starting a thread.  It's time the lower lakes snow belts get in on the action this season.  Here's to hoping we can both score some snow from the Fri/Sat system! 


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#3
Tom

Posted 05 December 2017 - 03:50 PM

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18z GFS suggest 1-2" for MBY, maybe 3" if your lucky west of LM???  I def think those streamers are going to give you guys in the LES belts of MI some pounding bands.

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#4
jaster220

Posted 05 December 2017 - 07:18 PM

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I'm hopeful that these Clippers that look so dry on the globals will in reality be a bit better when we get in the shorter range. I've seen the true LES gurus say not to waste your time with a global for accurate portrayals. Also be nice for yby and others on the far side to get a bump in totals.

#5
St Paul Storm

Posted 05 December 2017 - 07:39 PM

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Good luck with the potential clippers! I’m hopping on a plane in the morning and flying to Ireland for 6 days. Hope some of you can get a taste of winter in the next week.
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#6
jaster220

Posted 05 December 2017 - 07:39 PM

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WWA for mostly Lakeshore counties


Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
315 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071-072-060415-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0018.171206T2100Z-171207T2100Z/
Mason-Lake-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Hart, Muskegon,
Grand Haven, Jenison, Holland, South Haven, and Kalamazoo
315 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow showers becoming widespread late Wednesday and
continuing into Thursday afternoon. Heaviest snow will occur
over Allegan and Van Buren County. Plan on slippery road
conditions, especially during the Thursday morning commute.
Travel conditions locally worse under stronger bands of snow.
Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches expected with locally
higher amounts.

* WHERE...Southwest Lower Michigan west of US-131.

* WHEN...Heaviest snow occurs Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

weather.gov/grr

#7
jaster220

Posted 05 December 2017 - 07:40 PM

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@ St Paul Storm

Thanks, and happy trails!
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#8
Niko

Posted 05 December 2017 - 08:36 PM

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Good luck with the potential clippers! I’m hopping on a plane in the morning and flying to Ireland for 6 days. Hope some of you can get a taste of winter in the next week.

Have fun! :D


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#9
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 03:35 AM

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Good luck with the potential clippers! I’m hopping on a plane in the morning and flying to Ireland for 6 days. Hope some of you can get a taste of winter in the next week.

Safe travels!  Enjoy having a beer or two while your out there.  I know 'em Irish folks like to drink so if you have time to kick back in a tavern somewhere with them folks....enjoy!


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#10
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 03:55 AM

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00z Euro came back with a decent chance of our first accumulating snowfall of the season for most of N IL/WI and Michiana region.  I'll take it and run!

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_114.png

 

 

A different look among the GFS/EURO...

 

DQW7lIqX4AAZCuu.jpg



#11
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 04:13 AM

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00z UKIE spitting out some decent qpf around the GL's from the first clipper...

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_96.png



#12
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 04:16 AM

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00z Euro control also joining the Euro Op and Ukie with a bit more "umpfff"...

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#13
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:35 AM

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Perhaps 1-3 or 2-4" amounts could be possible w this clipper type system for SEMI. The further SE movement, the, better for my area. We will see how this thing unfolds. The chance for snow exists though for this weekend, indeed.



#14
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:38 AM

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Per NOAA:

 

The next potential, more impact-based, weather system to watch will
be a possible clipper system this weekend diving southeast from
Manitoba.
Model guidance is showing a clear trend in some sort of a
clipper low forming as additional energy diving south in the
longwave trough spawns cyclogenesis, but there is considerable
uncertainty with the track, which will have big implications on snow
potential this weekend. The NAM is further north and east with the
track, and the deepest solution (995 hPa), leaving southeast
Michigan on the unfavorable side of the clipper low although the
strength of the dynamics would still be enough for scattered light
snow. The ECMWF is weaker (around 1005 hPa) and further south with
the track across northern Indiana/Ohio, putting the area in the
favorable quadrant for accumulating light snow, while the GFS is
taking the middle ground. Still some time to watch how this system
plays out in the short term model guidance, as it will all hinge on
how the embedded pieces of shortwave energy interact with the
longwave trough, but there is some potential for a widespread light
snowfall Saturday into Sunday.


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#15
jaster220

Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:48 AM

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Great maps Tom! As expected, some ticks upward with moisture, even on the globals so very positive signs with this. Most guidance tossing up 3-ish inches for Marshall, but I think half is from this 1st LES round. Should look festive, and even back across IL does ok for mood flakes to a coating.
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#16
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:51 AM

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This clipper has potential. Things just have to fall in place at the right time and there ya go, BOOOMMM. Several inches of accumulations could happen. Time will tell. Chicago has great potential also w this one, especially if it dives further SE towards the Indiana/Ohio Valley path.



#17
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 06:57 AM

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12z NAM looking better and a bit more SW with its track and more moisture esp in MI...fluff up these totals a bit more with better snow ratios.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png


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#18
jaster220

Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:00 AM

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GRR's latest for wave 1

"The first widespread accumulating snow this season is expected to occur this afternoon through Thursday evening. Bands of lake effect snow will first develop over northern Michigan, then spread southward through the afternoon and evening. A weak trough of low pressure will then enhance snow late tonight and early Thursday. Snow could become moderate in intensity, or even briefly heavy. This may cause significant reductions to visibility and quick accumulations on roads and walkways, making them slippery."

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#19
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:03 AM

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12z NAM looking better and a bit more SW with its track and more moisture esp in MI...fluff up these totals a bit more with better snow ratios.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

Not bad. Gettin better each run. Lets continue this trend. That map clearly has my area in the 3-6" range, especially, in the Detroit area itself.


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#20
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:52 AM

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Heck ya, 12z GFS looks like the Euro/Control and coming in stronger!

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

That's going to be a sweet looking LES Plume for IN/MI!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png

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#21
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 07:56 AM

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Heck ya, 12z GFS looks like the Euro/Control and coming in stronger!

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

That's going to be a sweet looking LES Plume for IN/MI!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png

I'll take that in a heartbeat and run. Looking like a 3-6inch snowfall. Snow ratios might be high as well, which, would enhance snowfall numbers.



#22
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:13 AM

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Looking like Chicago and associated areas are gonna get enough to whiten up the grass. Trough hangs around long enough that melting shouldn't be a huge issue. Models have us getting some flakes as well, but nothing really that measurable.

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.1"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1)


#23
FV-Mike

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:38 AM

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Heck ya, 12z GFS looks like the Euro/Control and coming in stronger!

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

That's going to be a sweet looking LES Plume for IN/MI!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png

 

Looks good. I always thought that the GFS handled Clippers better



#24
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 09:18 AM

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Looks good. I always thought that the GFS handled Clippers better

It has great potential. It just needs to track SE towards the IN/Ohio border.



#25
bud2380

Posted 06 December 2017 - 09:31 AM

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I'm going to be in Northeast Iowa this weekend, so I just need this to shift about 50 miles further west to clip me with an inch or so of snow.  Wisconsin looks like they will do well Friday night into Saturday.  Still hope to see a small shift west.  I'd be happy with even a 1/2" of snow to whiten things up.  


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#26
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 09:56 AM

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Looks good. I always thought that the GFS handled Clippers better

A few days ago, it had a stronger clipper that dove straight north/south, then lost it and tracked farther NE of here, but since has trended back the other way.  Good signs among the NAM/GFS camp, now lets see if the Euro holds on.



#27
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:08 AM

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12z Euro coming in a bit more wetter across N MN compared to 00z run...



#28
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:11 AM

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12z Euro def stronger/wetter and thus a little more NE with it's track...



#29
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:28 AM

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12z Euro...ironing out the details this far out on clippers isn't the focus here...

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_108.png



#30
WBadgersW

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:32 AM

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That could really fluff up in Michigan. Hopefully things keep trending in the right direction.

#31
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:40 AM

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That could really fluff up in Michigan. Hopefully things keep trending in the right direction.

No doubt!  12z Euro has 3 systems to track over the next 6-7 days.  Also, they are trending stronger and more interesting each day we get closer.


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#32
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:47 AM

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Razor sharp cut-off on the 12z Euro regarding placement of the thermal boundary and precip.  12z Euro trends are wetter over the next week.  Someone could score 4-6" in IA/MN/WI/IL outta this pattern.  MI is going to be ground zero and should be fully under a nice snow pack going forward.

 

ecmwf_t_precip_mw_180.png

 

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_180.png


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#33
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:50 AM

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Razor sharp cut-off on the 12z Euro regarding placement of the thermal boundary and precip.  12z Euro trends are wetter over the next week.  Someone could score 4-6" in IA/MN/WI/IL outta this pattern.  MI is going to be ground zero and should be fully under a nice snow pack going forward.

 

ecmwf_t_precip_mw_180.png

 

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_180.png

This model clearly paints 6inches IMBY! :o


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#34
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 06 December 2017 - 10:59 AM

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Razor sharp cut-off on the 12z Euro regarding placement of the thermal boundary and precip.  12z Euro trends are wetter over the next week.  Someone could score 4-6" in IA/MN/WI/IL outta this pattern.  MI is going to be ground zero and should be fully under a nice snow pack going forward.
 


I'd take that verbatim. 2-4" over the next week is better than 0"!
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2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.1"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1)


#35
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 11:04 AM

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I'd take that verbatim. 2-4" over the next week is better than 0"!

Absolutely, in this highly amplified north/south pattern, anyone of these clippers can lay down a decent snowfall.  Question is, on which side of the playing field will you be???  It is looking like IA will be the battle ground until about the 15th of the month when the pattern flattens out a bit.  I'm sure E IA scores some snow out of this pattern over the next week.

 

For instance, check out the 12z GEFS trends over the last 3 runs...getting wetter...

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#36
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 11:06 AM

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Noaa on board w potential decent snowfall during Saturday and into Saturday night (3-5"latest thinking). Ofc, w all the cold weather staying around, whatever snow does fall aint going anywhere anytime soon.


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#37
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 06 December 2017 - 11:11 AM

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Absolutely, in this highly amplified north/south pattern, anyone of these clippers can lay down a decent snowfall.  Question is, on which side of the playing field will you be???  It is looking like IA will be the battle ground until about the 15th of the month when the pattern flattens out a bit.  I'm sure E IA scores some snow out of this pattern over the next week.
 
For instance, check out the 12z GEFS trends over the last 3 runs...getting wetter...


This is a double edged sword. This highly amplified pattern can also shear off and destroy these relatively fragiile clippers, leading to more disorganized and dryer systems. Although, as you said, they can sometimes feed off of the baroclinic zone on the west side of the trough as energy, still don't wanna fall for the bait just to have it yanked away from us, a la this week.
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2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.1"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1)


#38
bud2380

Posted 06 December 2017 - 11:43 AM

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That run of the Euro was disappointing for this weekend for me.  The 00z run looked more promising for far NE Iowa, the 12z run misses Iowa altogether.  



#39
FV-Mike

Posted 06 December 2017 - 01:57 PM

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Nice write up by LOT. General 1-2 inches with areas of 3 in NE IL


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#40
bud2380

Posted 06 December 2017 - 02:42 PM

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these types of clippers always seem to over perform as well as long as they have any moisture to work with.  Usually can get some quick fluffy snow.  if trends continue I'll be most of WI and N IL get 1-3" with maybe even isolated higher.  I'm praying we get 1" in far NE Iowa at my parents house, the kids would be very happy to see any snow.  


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#41
Money

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:14 PM

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0z GFS with 4-6 inches of snow in eastern wi through next Tuesday

#42
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:34 PM

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GFS is very active with disturbances every other day next week near the GL’s. Fun times ahead.
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#43
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:41 PM

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GFS is very active with disturbances every other day next week near the GL’s. Fun times ahead.

Except they all miss Iowa default_axesmiley.png, except for that real nice one.... at hour 210. Although DVN mentioned in their AFD recently that its quite likely this clippers will bounce around a bit due to their low amplitude signature. Maybe one or 2 will bounce southwest and we get lucky? They're only missing by 75-80miles verbatim.


2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.1"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1)


#44
Money

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:43 PM

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GFS is very active with disturbances every other day next week near the GL’s. Fun times ahead.


Yup nearly 8-10+ from mn to mi through hr 240

Cold and snow
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#45
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:44 PM

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Except they all miss Iowa default_axesmiley.png, except for that real nice one.... at hour 210. Although DVN mentioned in their AFD recently that its quite likely this clippers will bounce around a bit due to their low amplitude signature. Maybe one or 2 will bounce southwest and we get lucky? They're only missing by 75-80miles verbatim.


They're coming here instead. I'll bet you on that. Loser gets my cat.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#46
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:45 PM

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Except they all miss Iowa default_axesmiley.png, except for that real nice one.... at hour 210. Although DVN mentioned in their AFD recently that its quite likely this clippers will bounce around a bit due to their low amplitude signature. Maybe one or 2 will bounce southwest and we get lucky? They're only missing by 75-80miles verbatim.

Ya, it's going to bounce around but that is to be expected.  The GEFS have been trending wetter so its encouraging to see the 00z GFS come in wetter in the 5-10 day period.  I'm thinking the 00z GEFS continue the wetter trend.  Now, if the 00z Euro shows something similar maybe we'll be onto something.  Regarding the Day 9-10 system, it's lining up to something the 12z Euro was "trying" to show when I posted the jet structure maps in our Dec Observation thread.  That system could become a hybrid.


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#47
Tom

Posted 06 December 2017 - 08:47 PM

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MI is going to be building a glacier next week...LES belts gonna crank!

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#48
Niko

Posted 06 December 2017 - 09:07 PM

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Models are coming in more moist for Saturday. A storm on the EC might slow down this clipper and throw down some more accumulations in MI. Something to keep an eye on. Could be higher snow totals than currently anticipated.



#49
Tom

Posted 07 December 2017 - 04:11 AM

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LOT's take....

 

Tab2FileL.png

 

 

 

 

Guidance solutions indicate fairly strong lift, albeit quick
hitting, within favorable snow profiles Friday night. This
supports moderate to brief heavy snowfall rates. Mixing ratios
are forecast to peak at or a little above 2 g/kg on key isentropic
layers but for only about 6 hours or so, so empirically in warm
advection that lines up well with forecast maximums around 2-3
inches
. Given the mean path of the system, this higher snowfall
total area would include parts of far northeast Illinois/Chicago
area and northwest Indiana. The timing for the widespread snow is
mainly overnight/early Saturday morning, which may keep impacts
somewhat down. However a Winter Weather Advisory may still need to
be considered.

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#50
Tom

Posted 07 December 2017 - 04:14 AM

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RPM Model...

 

DQcTLaBVAAISySj.jpg

 

 

Euro vs GFS...

 

DQcGedfXUAAeInl.jpg

 

 

Michiana is going to get pounded!

 

 

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