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December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!


jaster220

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GRR has issued the first of what may be quite a string of WWA's for certain SWMI counties. I take their maps with a grain of salt east of Kalamazoo due to a lot of personal let-downs. But, it does look good to at least get my first measurable snow of the winter  :)

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm hopeful that these Clippers that look so dry on the globals will in reality be a bit better when we get in the shorter range. I've seen the true LES gurus say not to waste your time with a global for accurate portrayals. Also be nice for yby and others on the far side to get a bump in totals.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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WWA for mostly Lakeshore counties

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

315 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

 

MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071-072-060415-

/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0018.171206T2100Z-171207T2100Z/

Mason-Lake-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-

Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Hart, Muskegon,

Grand Haven, Jenison, Holland, South Haven, and Kalamazoo

315 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM

EST THURSDAY...

 

* WHAT...Snow showers becoming widespread late Wednesday and

continuing into Thursday afternoon. Heaviest snow will occur

over Allegan and Van Buren County. Plan on slippery road

conditions, especially during the Thursday morning commute.

Travel conditions locally worse under stronger bands of snow.

Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches expected with locally

higher amounts.

 

* WHERE...Southwest Lower Michigan west of US-131.

 

* WHEN...Heaviest snow occurs Thursday morning.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at

times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered

roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

 

$$

 

weather.gov/grr

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ St Paul Storm

 

Thanks, and happy trails!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Good luck with the potential clippers! I’m hopping on a plane in the morning and flying to Ireland for 6 days. Hope some of you can get a taste of winter in the next week.

Have fun! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Good luck with the potential clippers! I’m hopping on a plane in the morning and flying to Ireland for 6 days. Hope some of you can get a taste of winter in the next week.

Safe travels!  Enjoy having a beer or two while your out there.  I know 'em Irish folks like to drink so if you have time to kick back in a tavern somewhere with them folks....enjoy!

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00z Euro came back with a decent chance of our first accumulating snowfall of the season for most of N IL/WI and Michiana region.  I'll take it and run!

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120600/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_114.png

 

 

A different look among the GFS/EURO...

 

DQW7lIqX4AAZCuu.jpg

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Perhaps 1-3 or 2-4" amounts could be possible w this clipper type system for SEMI. The further SE movement, the, better for my area. We will see how this thing unfolds. The chance for snow exists though for this weekend, indeed.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per NOAA:

 

The next potential, more impact-based, weather system to watch will
be a possible clipper system this weekend diving southeast from
Manitoba.
Model guidance is showing a clear trend in some sort of a
clipper low forming as additional energy diving south in the
longwave trough spawns cyclogenesis, but there is considerable
uncertainty with the track, which will have big implications on snow
potential this weekend. The NAM is further north and east with the
track, and the deepest solution (995 hPa), leaving southeast
Michigan on the unfavorable side of the clipper low although the
strength of the dynamics would still be enough for scattered light
snow. The ECMWF is weaker (around 1005 hPa) and further south with
the track across northern Indiana/Ohio, putting the area in the
favorable quadrant for accumulating light snow, while the GFS is
taking the middle ground. Still some time to watch how this system
plays out in the short term model guidance, as it will all hinge on
how the embedded pieces of shortwave energy interact with the
longwave trough, but there is some potential for a widespread light
snowfall Saturday into Sunday.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Great maps Tom! As expected, some ticks upward with moisture, even on the globals so very positive signs with this. Most guidance tossing up 3-ish inches for Marshall, but I think half is from this 1st LES round. Should look festive, and even back across IL does ok for mood flakes to a coating.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This clipper has potential. Things just have to fall in place at the right time and there ya go, BOOOMMM. Several inches of accumulations could happen. Time will tell. Chicago has great potential also w this one, especially if it dives further SE towards the Indiana/Ohio Valley path.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GRR's latest for wave 1

 

"The first widespread accumulating snow this season is expected to occur this afternoon through Thursday evening. Bands of lake effect snow will first develop over northern Michigan, then spread southward through the afternoon and evening. A weak trough of low pressure will then enhance snow late tonight and early Thursday. Snow could become moderate in intensity, or even briefly heavy. This may cause significant reductions to visibility and quick accumulations on roads and walkways, making them slippery."

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z NAM looking better and a bit more SW with its track and more moisture esp in MI...fluff up these totals a bit more with better snow ratios.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

Not bad. Gettin better each run. Lets continue this trend. That map clearly has my area in the 3-6" range, especially, in the Detroit area itself.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Heck ya, 12z GFS looks like the Euro/Control and coming in stronger!

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

That's going to be a sweet looking LES Plume for IN/MI!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png

I'll take that in a heartbeat and run. Looking like a 3-6inch snowfall. Snow ratios might be high as well, which, would enhance snowfall numbers.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looking like Chicago and associated areas are gonna get enough to whiten up the grass. Trough hangs around long enough that melting shouldn't be a huge issue. Models have us getting some flakes as well, but nothing really that measurable.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Looks good. I always thought that the GFS handled Clippers better

It has great potential. It just needs to track SE towards the IN/Ohio border.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm going to be in Northeast Iowa this weekend, so I just need this to shift about 50 miles further west to clip me with an inch or so of snow.  Wisconsin looks like they will do well Friday night into Saturday.  Still hope to see a small shift west.  I'd be happy with even a 1/2" of snow to whiten things up.  

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Looks good. I always thought that the GFS handled Clippers better

A few days ago, it had a stronger clipper that dove straight north/south, then lost it and tracked farther NE of here, but since has trended back the other way.  Good signs among the NAM/GFS camp, now lets see if the Euro holds on.

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That could really fluff up in Michigan. Hopefully things keep trending in the right direction.

No doubt!  12z Euro has 3 systems to track over the next 6-7 days.  Also, they are trending stronger and more interesting each day we get closer.

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Razor sharp cut-off on the 12z Euro regarding placement of the thermal boundary and precip.  12z Euro trends are wetter over the next week.  Someone could score 4-6" in IA/MN/WI/IL outta this pattern.  MI is going to be ground zero and should be fully under a nice snow pack going forward.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120612/mw/ecmwf_t_precip_mw_180.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120612/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_180.png

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Razor sharp cut-off on the 12z Euro regarding placement of the thermal boundary and precip.  12z Euro trends are wetter over the next week.  Someone could score 4-6" in IA/MN/WI/IL outta this pattern.  MI is going to be ground zero and should be fully under a nice snow pack going forward.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120612/mw/ecmwf_t_precip_mw_180.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120612/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_180.png

This model clearly paints 6inches IMBY! :o

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Razor sharp cut-off on the 12z Euro regarding placement of the thermal boundary and precip.  12z Euro trends are wetter over the next week.  Someone could score 4-6" in IA/MN/WI/IL outta this pattern.  MI is going to be ground zero and should be fully under a nice snow pack going forward.

 

 

I'd take that verbatim. 2-4" over the next week is better than 0"!

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I'd take that verbatim. 2-4" over the next week is better than 0"!

Absolutely, in this highly amplified north/south pattern, anyone of these clippers can lay down a decent snowfall.  Question is, on which side of the playing field will you be???  It is looking like IA will be the battle ground until about the 15th of the month when the pattern flattens out a bit.  I'm sure E IA scores some snow out of this pattern over the next week.

 

For instance, check out the 12z GEFS trends over the last 3 runs...getting wetter...

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Noaa on board w potential decent snowfall during Saturday and into Saturday night (3-5"latest thinking). Ofc, w all the cold weather staying around, whatever snow does fall aint going anywhere anytime soon.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Absolutely, in this highly amplified north/south pattern, anyone of these clippers can lay down a decent snowfall.  Question is, on which side of the playing field will you be???  It is looking like IA will be the battle ground until about the 15th of the month when the pattern flattens out a bit.  I'm sure E IA scores some snow out of this pattern over the next week.

 

For instance, check out the 12z GEFS trends over the last 3 runs...getting wetter...

This is a double edged sword. This highly amplified pattern can also shear off and destroy these relatively fragiile clippers, leading to more disorganized and dryer systems. Although, as you said, they can sometimes feed off of the baroclinic zone on the west side of the trough as energy, still don't wanna fall for the bait just to have it yanked away from us, a la this week.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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these types of clippers always seem to over perform as well as long as they have any moisture to work with.  Usually can get some quick fluffy snow.  if trends continue I'll be most of WI and N IL get 1-3" with maybe even isolated higher.  I'm praying we get 1" in far NE Iowa at my parents house, the kids would be very happy to see any snow.  

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