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December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!

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#101
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 10:54 AM

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IWX onboard for 1-2" per hour with the backside band

 

 

 

Attention quickly turns to lake effect snow event for Saturday. As
mentioned...lake enhanced snow should begin as surface low drops
into western Michigan early Saturday morning and winds over the lake
become northwest then north. Delta Ts still climb into lower 20s
while theta e lapse rates around -2 k/km and inversion heights above
10kft. Models have been trending toward possible evolution of
several mesoscale vortices as trailing surface trough slides south
across lake in wake of surface low and lake/land convergence leads
to circulation development. Pattern fits nicely with locally
researched Type VI development which features a mesoscale low and
vort center with an attached single band in its wake. Several hires
models trying to show this with strong 925mb vort center dropping
south Saturday morning. If this mesovort does develop it will aid in
enhancing snowfall rates when it moves onshore but at same time will
lead to more of a meandering and wavy single band that may bend a
little further west than currently expected.
Composite reflectivity
trends from hires models still show most of the single band
remaining over southwest Berrien, Western St. Joseph and central
Laporte counties despite the meandering nature. Models are in good
agreement that warning level snow will fall across these 3 counties
which were in a watch. Have therefore upgraded to a warning. Amounts
will still depend on the evolution and movement of the dominant band
but given the favorable environment we have been discussing along
with long fetch and pre-conditioning should see intense snowfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Total accums in the 4 to 8 inch
range with locally higher amounts if and where this band becomes
stationary. 

 



#102
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 11:01 AM

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Hearing chatta, that these robust bands are bringing some spots across the northern highlands 10+ inches since morning..SLP just northeast of them, about ideal conditions for general streamers off of N Lk Mich

 

Attached File  20171208 130pm NMI radar.PNG   1.47MB   0 downloads



#103
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 12:41 PM

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Latest from IWX on impending Clipper! Sure wish I'd be around to catch the main band! TSSN may be in play, depends on if that band is a single strong streamer, or wavers a bit due to meso-low interactions

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

Remaining cold with the first widespread accumulating snow of the
season Saturday...

A potent and compact shortwave over eastern Manitoba will dig
southeast through the Great Lakes bringing a period of light
synoptic snow later tonight into Saturday morning, followed by a
dominate LES band to nnw LE belts later Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. Strong dynamic forcing will be enough to overcome
dry CP airmass in place, with system snow beginning later tonight
into nw IN/sw Lower MI, then through the rest of the forecast area
Saturday morning. Still thinking a quick 1-2" for most locations as
brief nature to forcing and dearth of moisture limits accums.
Scattered snow showers and flurries will then be possible into the
afternoon everywhere as the trough axis and associated steeper lapse
rates pivot through.

The main focus Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon
will turn to lake enhanced snow...then pure LES in the afternoon
and evening. The low level flow veers more nnw and then eventually
more nw, which will result in strong frictional/thermal
convergence along the long axis of eastern Lake MI. LES parameters
continue to favor good dendritic growth and the potential for
intense 1-2"/hr snowfall rates (near whiteout conditions and gusty
winds) within the dominate band. Berrien/St Joseph IN/LaPorte
still look to be within the pivot point of any banding
, with lower
confidence in surrounding counties given the potential for
mesovorticies to force a more transitory/broken plume. It is worth
noting that a more organized band could reach well inland with
advisory level impacts given 35-40 knots of flow modeled at 925
mb. Steepening boundary layer depth may tap into some of this and
create strong winds and blowing snow/low visby`s, especially in
areas under a warning or advisory.

Drying/subsidence/backing winds will take its tool on inversion
heights and bring an end to any impactful LES later Saturday night.

 


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#104
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 01:13 PM

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GRR's pm update and thoughts..

 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)

Issued at 325 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

A low pressure system will move in from the nw tonight and bring
snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches to most of our fcst area by
mid morning Saturday.
Higher snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
are fcst across our lakeshore counties tonight due to sw flow lake
enhancement.

Our previous headlines looked excellent and remained unchanged.
We decided to also issue a winter wx advisory for Mason/Oceana
counties for tonight due to sw flow lake enhancement (thx for
coord on this APX).

Light snow showers and flurries will linger across our fcst area
from mid morning tomorrow through tomorrow afternoon but with very
light additional accumulations. The exception to this is in far
western Allegan and Van Buren counties which will likely be
clipped by a dominant north/south oriented les band as winds
become northerly and h8 temps fall to -12 to -14 C in the
afternoon.

Therefore several inches of additional snow accumulation are
expected tomorrow from near Holland/Saugatuck southward near the
Lake MI shoreline. Lighter lake effect snow showers will linger
west of US-131 Saturday evening as winds back to the nw. The light
snow showers will taper off to flurries overnight.

A cold front will approach from the north and cause development
of light snow showers Sunday into Sunday night. Synoptic snow tied
to the next clipper system will not move in until Monday.

 

Attached File  20171208 IWX pm snowfall graphic.png   345.33KB   0 downloads



#105
Tom

Posted 08 December 2017 - 01:26 PM

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12z Euro showing .10 over NE IL...take it and run...LOL

 

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.png


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#106
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 01:31 PM

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12z Euro showing .10 over NE IL...take it and run...LOL

 

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.png

 

But what can you fluff that up to???  Play the ratio card my friend. Globals on short range = iffy at best!  Looking at GRR's map, they must be factoring more than that one Euro run..



#107
Tony

Posted 08 December 2017 - 01:41 PM

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12z Euro showing .10 over NE IL...take it and run...LOL

 

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.png

You can have it Tom...I will take the next one.



#108
Tom

Posted 08 December 2017 - 02:07 PM

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But what can you fluff that up to???  Play the ratio card my friend. Globals on short range = iffy at best!  Looking at GRR's map, they must be factoring more than that one Euro run..

1-2" at best...I don't like being on the southern edge of clippers...I was hoping for the one on Mon/Tue to track farther south but that doesn't look like its happening.  It would have been a better "share the wealth" scenario across our region.


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#109
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 02:14 PM

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1-2" at best...I don't like being on the southern edge of clippers...I was hoping for the one on Mon/Tue to track farther south but that doesn't look like its happening.  It would have been a better "share the wealth" scenario across our region.

 

Agree Amigo, NAM is most south solution, GFS tracks overhead or a bit north of you, and GEM's way north and more wound-up across the Straights. GEM would actually be better for LES/LEhS for SWMI vs a system tracking right on top of us. We'll see. Climo in early Dec says north is money for Clippers. 


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#110
indianajohn

Posted 08 December 2017 - 04:47 PM

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d**n just east of me......but it's nothing new with LES....

 

 

WINTER STORM WARNING in effect from Saturday, 12:00 a.m. CST until Saturday, 11:00 p.m. CST. Source: National Weather Service Northern Indiana

WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 4-7 inches, with localized amounts up to 9 inches.

WHERE...Porter, La Porte and St. Joseph Counties in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan.

Porter County from midnight tonight until 6 pm Saturday.

WHEN...
Porter County from midnight tonight until 6 pm Saturday.

Additional Counties From 12 midnight Saturday to 11 PM Saturday night.
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/ PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means
significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency. 


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#111
indianajohn

Posted 08 December 2017 - 04:50 PM

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10" Hourly rates.....can you imagine witnessing that?? I know it's Alaska but almost a foot an hour is crazy!!   Tom Skilling added 4 new photos.
7 hrs · 

Alaska has reported a record rate of snowfall rate in recent days. The Washington Post article which headlined a reported 10" hourly snow rate this past week in Valdez on the state's southern coast, was called to my attention by one of my Facebook friends. I'm posting a link to the article below. Valdez is the city at the southern terminus of the Alaska pipeline which runs nearly 800 miles from the state's arctic coast.


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#112
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 05:29 PM

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Green Bay joined the WWA club. Up to 5" with help off the lake. First real snow for that area.

Oh, and was really surprised to see quite a few patches of my mood coating survived here in Marshall. Mostly on the shady side of the streets, or where it formed small drifts. Hope this Clipper isn't another fail, need to catch my sister from Baton Rouge on snow fall. Pretty embarrassing, lol
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#113
Tom

Posted 08 December 2017 - 06:48 PM

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First flurries flying...


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#114
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:48 PM

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GRRville, where you can get 10" overnight with a WWA


956 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.
Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localized
amounts up to 10 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Allegan and Van Buren counties.

#115
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:58 PM

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GRRville, where you can get 10" overnight with a WWA


956 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.
Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localized
amounts up to 10 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Allegan and Van Buren counties.

Lol that's sad. Here, even if you have a slight possibility of getting 6, you get a WSW.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#116
Tom

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:03 PM

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Just took a walk out around my neighborhood with the flakes flying. I may add that this is not pixie dust and have a nice fluff to them. It seems like this year there are more houses with festive lights. All we need now is a nice dumping of powder!
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#117
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:08 PM

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Interesting from BAMwx on TSSN. Love the spike over Marshall

@Met_khinz
·
12h
Impressive elevated #snow squall parameter into Saturday as a clipper-like system moves into the Ohio Valley...heavy lake effect bands with thundersnow possible #ILwx #INwx #MIwx #OHwx

Was a short video but get error msg when I try to attach it??

#118
SE Wisconsin

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:39 PM

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Latest AFD update from MKX:

 

"18Z GFS and new NAM and HRRR precipitation amounts are a little
less than previous runs. If the evening GFS follows, look for
mainly an inch or less type event. Up to an inch Fond du lac
Sheboygan and Milwaukee metro, with a little less in areas near
and west of Madison."

 

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be the trend this entire winter.  Previous forecasts were for up to as much as three inches.  Now, barely an inch if we're lucky.



#119
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:54 PM

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I've got 0.1" on the season. I'm on the board!


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#120
Hawkeye

Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:30 PM

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I've got 0.1" on the season. I'm on the board!

 

Just a trace down here in CR.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#121
Tom

Posted 09 December 2017 - 04:36 AM

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A whopping 0.5" of snow over here.  Just enough to whiten things up but not enough to cover the grass.  Prob will melt by tomorrow anyway.  Good luck to those who get the LES!  LOT mentioning 2"+/hr snowfall rates in NW IN.  Hope IndianaJohn or Hoosier score some intense snows for a couple hours.  LES is one of my favorite winter headlines. 


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#122
Tom

Posted 09 December 2017 - 05:13 AM

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MKE getting some Lehs right now...NE IL may get some action from this development in the next couple hours...

 

 

 

MKX.N0Q.20171209.1303.gif


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#123
VMB443

Posted 09 December 2017 - 05:43 AM

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Yeah, we got about half an inch and then it stopped and picked back up from the lake - wasn’t expecting that - not much all told but nice to see.
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#124
Tom

Posted 09 December 2017 - 05:46 AM

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Yeah, we got about half an inch and then it stopped and picked back up from the lake - wasn’t expecting that - not much all told but nice to see.

This system is one of those that teases you in the beginning of the season.  I feel ya!  You may get swiped by another band forming offshore of Sheboygan.



#125
Niko

Posted 09 December 2017 - 06:04 AM

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Some light snow headed my way. Couple of inches expected. Currently cloudy and cold w temp @ 26F.



#126
VMB443

Posted 09 December 2017 - 07:38 AM

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This system is one of those that teases you in the beginning of the season. I feel ya! You may get swiped by another band forming offshore of Sheboygan.


Yeah - this one is moving just to the west of me by about two miles! Talk about a tease! Looks nice out there though even still.
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#127
Tom

Posted 09 December 2017 - 08:02 AM

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Yeah - this one is moving just to the west of me by about two miles! Talk about a tease! Looks nice out there though even still.


I agree. Nice to see the snow OTG and gusty winds. I’m making a big pot of soup and will prob put up my Christmas Tree today. It amazing how much of a psychological impact it is to see snow ❄️ during the holiday season.
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#128
indianajohn

Posted 09 December 2017 - 09:11 AM

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A whopping 0.5" of snow over here.  Just enough to whiten things up but not enough to cover the grass.  Prob will melt by tomorrow anyway.  Good luck to those who get the LES!  LOT mentioning 2"+/hr snowfall rates in NW IN.  Hope IndianaJohn or Hoosier score some intense snows for a couple hours.  LES is one of my favorite winter headlines. 

Looks like most of Lake County will miss the LES event....We only get LES on the back end of a major storm as the storm moves to the East. We need an ideal set up to get a major LES event.


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#129
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 10:34 AM

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I agree. Nice to see the snow OTG and gusty winds. I’m making a big pot of soup and will prob put up my Christmas Tree today. It amazing how much of a psychological impact it is to see snow ❄️ during the holiday season.

  

Looks like most of Lake County will miss the LES event....We only get LES on the back end of a major storm as the storm moves to the East. We need an ideal set up to get a major LES event.

Not so fast!

Service Northern Indiana
121 PM EST SAT DEC 9 2017

INZ003-004-MIZ077-091845-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Berrien-
121 PM EST SAT DEC 9 2017

...A DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH...
NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE AND SOUTHWESTERN BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 118 PM EST/1218 PM CST/, a dangerous snow squall was located near
Shorewood-Tower Hill, or 14 miles southwest of St. Joseph, moving
southeast at 15 mph. Brief whiteout conditions can be expected with
these snow squalls. The strongest snow squall will impact Harbert,
Turner Shore, and Three Oaks Michigan as well as Interstate 94
in Michigan between mile markers 5 and 14.

Locations impacted include...
Michigan City, La Porte, Bridgman, New Buffalo, New Carlisle, Three
Oaks, Long Beach, Shorewood-Tower Hill, Shorewood-Tower
Hills-Harbert, Dayton, Galien, Michiana Shores, Grand Beach,
Michiana, Union Pier, Glendora, New Troy, Harbert, Sawyer and
Lakeside In Berrien County.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 47 and 69.
Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 40 and 45.
Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 19.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the
squall passes your location.

#130
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 10:47 AM

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I agree. Nice to see the snow OTG and gusty winds. I’m making a big pot of soup and will prob put up my Christmas Tree today. It amazing how much of a psychological impact it is to see snow ❄️ during the holiday season.


You got an awesome plan going there my friend! I plan to get going on my tree as well. Nothing more than flurries expected the rest of the day, so I finished with a solid 2.5 inches. It was more moist than I thought, nice medium sized dendrites. Most peeps out shovelling and businesses getting plowed for the first time. Even the streets got a blade dropped on 'em by the city crew. Considering the drying trend by models, this turned out great and I'm really pleased! It was mentioned by DTX how this dove straight down from AK, so it had even less moisture than your typical clipper. With light winds, the snows is sitting on all the tree branches. The fountain park area in town looks like Courier & Ives scenery!
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#131
Tom

Posted 09 December 2017 - 11:17 AM

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You got an awesome plan going there my friend! I plan to get going on my tree as well. Nothing more than flurries expected the rest of the day, so I finished with a solid 2.5 inches. It was more moist than I thought, nice medium sized dendrites. Most peeps out shovelling and businesses getting plowed for the first time. Even the streets got a blade dropped on 'em by the city crew. Considering the drying trend by models, this turned out great and I'm really pleased! It was mentioned by DTX how this dove straight down from AK, so it had even less moisture than your typical clipper. With light winds, the snows is sitting on all the tree branches. The fountain park area in town looks like Courier & Ives scenery!

Congrats on the snow.  Just enough to cover the grass tips I bet.  12z Euro has several more inches for MI from the  Mon/Tue system...

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_108.png


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#132
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 11:18 AM

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Michiana getting drilled!

LaPorte Co. Sheriff
@XLSarge
·
2h
Lake effect snow has arrived in La Porte County. Visibility in Rolling Prairie is only a few blocks. Please use headlights and buckle up!

Attached File  DQnf_0zX0AE7yXs.jpeg   73.72KB   0 downloads
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#133
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 11:35 AM

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Congrats on the snow.  Just enough to cover the grass tips I bet.  12z Euro has several more inches for MI from the  Mon/Tue system...
 
ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_108.png

Thanks! Euro looking good, love snow-on-snow and this one should share the love much moreso than today's
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#134
Hoosier

Posted 09 December 2017 - 11:57 AM

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Looks like most of Lake County will miss the LES event....We only get LES on the back end of a major storm as the storm moves to the East. We need an ideal set up to get a major LES event.


Yeah, we are not the snowbelt of Indiana. We can and do get decent LES on occasion (with huge events even less common) but not like the frequency about 25 miles to the east.

#135
Niko

Posted 09 December 2017 - 02:47 PM

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About an inch has fallen IMBY. Still snowing lightly.


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#136
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 03:59 PM

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Looks like the anticipated Lk Mich death band has materialized this evening and is currently pounding St. Joe and likely my work site - wish it had come on a week day. Lol
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#137
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 04:01 PM

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About an inch has fallen IMBY. Still snowing lightly.


You'll do better with the next clipper I believe, but even your inch gets you on the board and sets the table for snow-on-snow Monday. Can't hurt the holiday feel either!

#138
Niko

Posted 09 December 2017 - 04:25 PM

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You'll do better with the next clipper I believe, but even your inch gets you on the board and sets the table for snow-on-snow Monday. Can't hurt the holiday feel either!

Yup, its looking more stronger...I am thinking several inches. Best part is to accumulate snow after snow after snow. Ofc, a small break in between is needed to enjoy the fallen snow b4 the new batch falls on top of the old one. :D


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#139
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 04:31 PM

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Incoming..

Attached File  r03_ICast (6).gif   62.95KB   2 downloads

#140
Niko

Posted 09 December 2017 - 04:35 PM

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Incoming..

attachicon.gifr03_ICast (6).gif

That looks sweet. That is a strong looking precip pushing southward towards MI.


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#141
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 06:53 PM

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0z NAM @ 42..showing Tom some love..looks like 3-5"

Attached File  nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png   180.52KB   0 downloads

Attached File  namconus_asnow_us_25.png   93.16KB   0 downloads

#142
jaster220

Posted 09 December 2017 - 07:25 PM

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Attached File  03Dec2017 NotD Winter Weather.png   354.52KB   0 downloads
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#143
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 December 2017 - 08:19 PM

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Congrats up north guys.
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#144
Niko

Posted 09 December 2017 - 08:46 PM

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Still some light snow in the area. Looking @ 1.3".



#145
Tom

Posted 10 December 2017 - 05:32 AM

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0z NAM @ 42..showing Tom some love..looks like 3-5"

attachicon.gifnam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

attachicon.gifnamconus_asnow_us_25.png

I wish, but more likely it will be a nuisance event but S WI may score a couple of inches.

 

LOT's thinking...

 

Tab2FileL.png



#146
Tom

Posted 10 December 2017 - 06:36 AM

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00z Ukie throwing some pretty good qpf's across MN/WI/N IL/MI over the next 5 days.  Actually, when I took a look at the 00z EPS members, the Wed./Thu clipper takes a nearly picture perfect track/pivot across C IL to give some much needed "snow relief" to those across IA/IL/IN who have missed out.

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_120.png



#147
Niko

Posted 10 December 2017 - 06:40 AM

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I am still getting some light snow outside.Current temp @ 26F.

 

https://weather.com/...urrtrafficspeed


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#148
Niko

Posted 10 December 2017 - 06:42 AM

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Next potential comes tomorrow when several more inches of snow will be possible.


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#149
Tom

Posted 10 December 2017 - 06:46 AM

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Next potential comes tomorrow when several more inches of snow will be possible.

Your snow fall totals, along with the rest of the MI members, are going to start stacking up buddy!  Building that glacier early this year.


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#150
Tom

Posted 10 December 2017 - 07:02 AM

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12z NAM3km showing a weenie band over N IL tomorrow afternoon...just had to post this...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png

 

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png


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