jaster220 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2017 Biggest report and first above 4" so far from NWS site NWUS53 KGRR 071922LSRGRRPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI222 PM EST THU DEC 7 2017..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0200 PM SNOW ALLENDALE 42.99N 85.95W12/07/2017 E6.0 INCH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTERTOTAL SO FAR TODAY. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI300 PM EST THU DEC 07 2017..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0250 PM SNOW HUDSONVILLE 42.87N 85.87W12/07/2017 M6.0 INCH OTTAWA MI PUBLIC Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Per Noaa: Current QPF forecastwith the amount of forcing with the system would yield widespreadsnowfall amounts of generally 2-3 inches with locally higher amountspossible. These numbers would increase if QPF trends upward, so willneed to keep an eye on the QPF trends as the event nears. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 This weekend clipper showing the potential of a couple of inches here IMBY. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Might get an inch out of this system. Not looking like it will be enough to cover the grass tips. Prob will melt by Monday anyway so it'll be just enough to be a "mood" setter. If anything, the Mon/Tue system could be enough to cover the grass around here. Both 00z EPS/Control take a track a bit more south than the other modeling. Here is the 00z Euro Control thru Tues.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 The EURO depicts 10 days of nothing but flurries verbatim. Its hard to spin it any other way. I dont like the signs of the pattern break down being pushed back 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 The EURO depicts 10 days of nothing but flurries verbatim. Its hard to spin it any other way. I dont like the signs of the pattern break down being pushed backBut hey Michigan does well. We need to reshuffle the cards here, or nothing will happen. In fact, I don't think CID has recorded measurable snow so far this season. At least most other places have that going for them. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 But hey Michigan does well. We need to reshuffle the cards here, or nothing will happen. In fact, I don't think CID has recorded measurable snow so far this season. At least most other places have that going for them.We haven’t here in WI either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 From APX - I remember my days living in the NMI snow belts when we'd get this kinda pattern it was always fresh looking snow OTG, a true winter wonderland up there .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017High impact weather potential...Ongoing lake effect snow will beenhanced by periodic snow from passing clipper systems. This couldyield some significant snow totals for some areas.An unrelenting, active winter pattern for the Great Lakes regionthrough the period as a persistent longwave trough sits over theregion. A progression of several systems and repeated blasts ofArctic air look to rotate around the trough at various time. Aclipper system will dive through the Great Lakes late Sunday nightinto Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -20C orperhaps colder heading into Tuesday. Snowblow, shovel, and repeat asyet another clipper system rounds the trough Wednesday night intoThursday, following a nearly identical track. In between thesesystems, of course, will be ongoing lake effect...reinforced by theperiodic shots of cold, Arctic air. Northerly and northwesterly flowsnow belts appear to be most favored through the period. Taking acursory look at BUFKIT data and GEFS plumes, snowfall from the lakeeffect combined with the passing clipper systems could be enough towarrant headlines for some areas, but time will tell of course asdetails become clearer in the coming days. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 From APX - I remember my days living in the NMI snow belts when we'd get this kinda pattern it was always fresh looking snow OTG, a true winter wonderland up there .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High impact weather potential...Ongoing lake effect snow will beenhanced by periodic snow from passing clipper systems. This couldyield some significant snow totals for some areas. An unrelenting, active winter pattern for the Great Lakes regionthrough the period as a persistent longwave trough sits over theregion. A progression of several systems and repeated blasts ofArctic air look to rotate around the trough at various time. Aclipper system will dive through the Great Lakes late Sunday nightinto Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -20C orperhaps colder heading into Tuesday. Snowblow, shovel, and repeat asyet another clipper system rounds the trough Wednesday night intoThursday, following a nearly identical track. In between thesesystems, of course, will be ongoing lake effect...reinforced by theperiodic shots of cold, Arctic air. Northerly and northwesterly flowsnow belts appear to be most favored through the period. Taking acursory look at BUFKIT data and GEFS plumes, snowfall from the lakeeffect combined with the passing clipper systems could be enough towarrant headlines for some areas, but time will tell of course asdetails become clearer in the coming days.Snowpocalypse! Prepare yourselves... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Closer to home, even tho headlines are a mix of WWA's and WSWarnings, some areas per the headline txt's will likely reach double digits, maybe double the best of yesterday's event, thus a solid 12" not out of the question. The synoptic qpf with this Clipper has not ramped-up for areas inland as hoped for, yet with Lake Mich still quite warm, I could see this thing "scooping" a bit more moisture across SWMI and possibly generating better totals than is currently being forecast. Usually when GRR aims low, the results go the other way, and vice-versa, yesterday being a classic example. The very immediate lake shore looks to get the best of all sides of this compact storm. Should really look like full-on winter around St. Joe by Monday GRR IWX 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Closer to home, even tho headlines are a mix of WWA's and WSWarnings, some areas per the headline txt's will likely reach double digits, maybe double the best of yesterday's event, thus a solid 12" not out of the question. The synoptic qpf with this Clipper has not ramped-up for areas inland as hoped for, yet with Lake Mich still quite warm, I could see this thing "scooping" a bit more moisture across SWMI and possibly generating better totals than is currently being forecast. Usually when GRR aims low, the results go the other way, and vice-versa, yesterday being a classic example. The very immediate lake shore looks to get the best of all sides of this compact storm. Should really look like full-on winter around St. Joe by Monday GRR 20171208 GRR am snowfall graphic.png IWX 20171208 IWX am snowfall graphic.pngNice! 2-4" looking likely for MBY. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 ..and BAM! it's winter 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 ..and BAM! it's winter 20171208 KBEH 1st headline.PNGYou should do well these upcoming days. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Nice! 2-4" looking likely for MBY. Should be great for the Christmas season, eh?? My local calling for 4" TonightSnow showers, mainly after 1am. Low around 24. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. SaturdaySnow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. South southwest wind 6 to 14 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Should be great for the Christmas season, eh?? My local calling for 4"Absolutely. Hopefully, the next clipper early next week will be stronger. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Absolutely. Hopefully, the next clipper early next week will be stronger.Based off of the 12z GEFS, it is looking better and def better potential than the 1st one. If it can shift south some more many more on here would bode well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Based off of the 12z GEFS, it is looking better and def better potential than the 1st one. If it can shift south some more many more on here would bode well.Hopefully, it does. Lets see what happens. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Based off of the 12z GEFS, it is looking better and def better potential than the 1st one. If it can shift south some more many more on here would bode well. Late season Clippers trend south, not normally so for early December. Look at tonight's for example. IND peeps were all excited that they were targeted by the models several days ago. But, as per usual, it'll be about 1 state north of where models kept showing it. In this case, I'm a benefactor, but mostly in the past I've been the cheated. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) Well, after reviewing all the short-range models at lunch, they appear in pretty good agreement on ~ a 12 hr window for snow in Marshall. First flakes look to be around 3 am, with light to steady snow til peaking from 4 to 10 am, then a more scattered look depending on the model. Some, even seem to have a convective look with squalls around near the CF as seen on the 2nd Intell map: EDIT: That main N-S streamer shown coming in behind the CF should be the real deal. Won't last too long but will likely produce 1+" per hour rates. Ofc, this is hitting on a weekend so I won't be here in St. Joe to experience it first hand Edited December 8, 2017 by jaster220 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Well, after reviewing all the short-range models at lunch, they appear in pretty good agreement on ~ a 12 hr window for snow in Marshall. First flakes look to be around 3 am, with light to steady snow til peaking from 4 to 10 am, then a more scattered look depending on the model. Some, even seem to have a convective look with squalls around near the CF as seen on the 2nd Intell map: 20171208 Intellicast 24hr GLs map-1am Sat 9th.jpg 20171208 Intellicast 48hr GLs map-7am Sat 9th.jpgLook at that blue color covering SEMI and SWMI. Gotta like that! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 IWX onboard for 1-2" per hour with the backside band Attention quickly turns to lake effect snow event for Saturday. Asmentioned...lake enhanced snow should begin as surface low dropsinto western Michigan early Saturday morning and winds over the lakebecome northwest then north. Delta Ts still climb into lower 20swhile theta e lapse rates around -2 k/km and inversion heights above10kft. Models have been trending toward possible evolution ofseveral mesoscale vortices as trailing surface trough slides southacross lake in wake of surface low and lake/land convergence leadsto circulation development. Pattern fits nicely with locallyresearched Type VI development which features a mesoscale low andvort center with an attached single band in its wake. Several hiresmodels trying to show this with strong 925mb vort center droppingsouth Saturday morning. If this mesovort does develop it will aid inenhancing snowfall rates when it moves onshore but at same time willlead to more of a meandering and wavy single band that may bend alittle further west than currently expected. Composite reflectivitytrends from hires models still show most of the single bandremaining over southwest Berrien, Western St. Joseph and centralLaporte counties despite the meandering nature. Models are in goodagreement that warning level snow will fall across these 3 countieswhich were in a watch. Have therefore upgraded to a warning. Amountswill still depend on the evolution and movement of the dominant bandbut given the favorable environment we have been discussing alongwith long fetch and pre-conditioning should see intense snowfallrates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Total accums in the 4 to 8 inchrange with locally higher amounts if and where this band becomesstationary. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hearing chatta, that these robust bands are bringing some spots across the northern highlands 10+ inches since morning..SLP just northeast of them, about ideal conditions for general streamers off of N Lk Mich Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Latest from IWX on impending Clipper! Sure wish I'd be around to catch the main band! TSSN may be in play, depends on if that band is a single strong streamer, or wavers a bit due to meso-low interactions .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017Remaining cold with the first widespread accumulating snow of theseason Saturday...A potent and compact shortwave over eastern Manitoba will digsoutheast through the Great Lakes bringing a period of lightsynoptic snow later tonight into Saturday morning, followed by adominate LES band to nnw LE belts later Saturday morning throughSaturday evening. Strong dynamic forcing will be enough to overcomedry CP airmass in place, with system snow beginning later tonightinto nw IN/sw Lower MI, then through the rest of the forecast areaSaturday morning. Still thinking a quick 1-2" for most locations asbrief nature to forcing and dearth of moisture limits accums.Scattered snow showers and flurries will then be possible into theafternoon everywhere as the trough axis and associated steeper lapserates pivot through.The main focus Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoonwill turn to lake enhanced snow...then pure LES in the afternoonand evening. The low level flow veers more nnw and then eventuallymore nw, which will result in strong frictional/thermalconvergence along the long axis of eastern Lake MI. LES parameterscontinue to favor good dendritic growth and the potential forintense 1-2"/hr snowfall rates (near whiteout conditions and gustywinds) within the dominate band. Berrien/St Joseph IN/LaPortestill look to be within the pivot point of any banding, with lowerconfidence in surrounding counties given the potential formesovorticies to force a more transitory/broken plume. It is worthnoting that a more organized band could reach well inland withadvisory level impacts given 35-40 knots of flow modeled at 925mb. Steepening boundary layer depth may tap into some of this andcreate strong winds and blowing snow/low visby`s, especially inareas under a warning or advisory.Drying/subsidence/backing winds will take its tool on inversionheights and bring an end to any impactful LES later Saturday night. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 GRR's pm update and thoughts.. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)Issued at 325 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017A low pressure system will move in from the nw tonight and bringsnow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches to most of our fcst area bymid morning Saturday. Higher snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inchesare fcst across our lakeshore counties tonight due to sw flow lakeenhancement.Our previous headlines looked excellent and remained unchanged.We decided to also issue a winter wx advisory for Mason/Oceanacounties for tonight due to sw flow lake enhancement (thx forcoord on this APX).Light snow showers and flurries will linger across our fcst areafrom mid morning tomorrow through tomorrow afternoon but with verylight additional accumulations. The exception to this is in farwestern Allegan and Van Buren counties which will likely beclipped by a dominant north/south oriented les band as windsbecome northerly and h8 temps fall to -12 to -14 C in theafternoon.Therefore several inches of additional snow accumulation areexpected tomorrow from near Holland/Saugatuck southward near theLake MI shoreline. Lighter lake effect snow showers will lingerwest of US-131 Saturday evening as winds back to the nw. The lightsnow showers will taper off to flurries overnight.A cold front will approach from the north and cause developmentof light snow showers Sunday into Sunday night. Synoptic snow tiedto the next clipper system will not move in until Monday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 12z Euro showing .10 over NE IL...take it and run...LOL http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120812/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 12z Euro showing .10 over NE IL...take it and run...LOL http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120812/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.png But what can you fluff that up to??? Play the ratio card my friend. Globals on short range = iffy at best! Looking at GRR's map, they must be factoring more than that one Euro run.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 12z Euro showing .10 over NE IL...take it and run...LOL http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120812/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.pngYou can have it Tom...I will take the next one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 But what can you fluff that up to??? Play the ratio card my friend. Globals on short range = iffy at best! Looking at GRR's map, they must be factoring more than that one Euro run..1-2" at best...I don't like being on the southern edge of clippers...I was hoping for the one on Mon/Tue to track farther south but that doesn't look like its happening. It would have been a better "share the wealth" scenario across our region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 1-2" at best...I don't like being on the southern edge of clippers...I was hoping for the one on Mon/Tue to track farther south but that doesn't look like its happening. It would have been a better "share the wealth" scenario across our region. Agree Amigo, NAM is most south solution, GFS tracks overhead or a bit north of you, and GEM's way north and more wound-up across the Straights. GEM would actually be better for LES/LEhS for SWMI vs a system tracking right on top of us. We'll see. Climo in early Dec says north is money for Clippers. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 D**n just east of me......but it's nothing new with LES.... WINTER STORM WARNING in effect from Saturday, 12:00 a.m. CST until Saturday, 11:00 p.m. CST. Source: National Weather Service Northern IndianaWHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 4-7 inches, with localized amounts up to 9 inches.WHERE...Porter, La Porte and St. Joseph Counties in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan.Porter County from midnight tonight until 6 pm Saturday.WHEN...Porter County from midnight tonight until 6 pm Saturday.Additional Counties From 12 midnight Saturday to 11 PM Saturday night.ADDITIONAL HAZARDS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.PRECAUTIONARY/ PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow meanssignificant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that willmake travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in caseof an emergency. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 10" Hourly rates.....can you imagine witnessing that?? I know it's Alaska but almost a foot an hour is crazy!! Tom Skilling added 4 new photos. 7 hrs · Alaska has reported a record rate of snowfall rate in recent days. The Washington Post article which headlined a reported 10" hourly snow rate this past week in Valdez on the state's southern coast, was called to my attention by one of my Facebook friends. I'm posting a link to the article below. Valdez is the city at the southern terminus of the Alaska pipeline which runs nearly 800 miles from the state's arctic coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Green Bay joined the WWA club. Up to 5" with help off the lake. First real snow for that area. Oh, and was really surprised to see quite a few patches of my mood coating survived here in Marshall. Mostly on the shady side of the streets, or where it formed small drifts. Hope this Clipper isn't another fail, need to catch my sister from Baton Rouge on snow fall. Pretty embarrassing, lol 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 First flurries flying... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 GRRville, where you can get 10" overnight with a WWA 956 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM ESTSATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Allegan and Van Buren counties. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 GRRville, where you can get 10" overnight with a WWA 956 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM ESTSATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localizedamounts up to 10 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Allegan and Van Buren counties.Lol that's sad. Here, even if you have a slight possibility of getting 6, you get a WSW. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just took a walk out around my neighborhood with the flakes flying. I may add that this is not pixie dust and have a nice fluff to them. It seems like this year there are more houses with festive lights. All we need now is a nice dumping of powder! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Interesting from BAMwx on TSSN. Love the spike over Marshall @Met_khinz·12hImpressive elevated #snow squall parameter into Saturday as a clipper-like system moves into the Ohio Valley...heavy lake effect bands with thundersnow possible #ILwx #INwx #MIwx #OHwx Was a short video but get error msg when I try to attach it?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Latest AFD update from MKX: "18Z GFS and new NAM and HRRR precipitation amounts are a littleless than previous runs. If the evening GFS follows, look formainly an inch or less type event. Up to an inch Fond du lacSheboygan and Milwaukee metro, with a little less in areas nearand west of Madison." Why do I get the feeling this is going to be the trend this entire winter. Previous forecasts were for up to as much as three inches. Now, barely an inch if we're lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I've got 0.1" on the season. I'm on the board! 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I've got 0.1" on the season. I'm on the board! Just a trace down here in CR. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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