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December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!

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#301
Money

Posted 12 December 2017 - 07:42 AM

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NAM/RGEM have 8-10 for Appleton/Wausau area while the GFS is in the 2-3 range. Quite a spread 24 hours out

#302
Tony

Posted 12 December 2017 - 07:54 AM

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Canadian models showing more precip for N.IL/S.WI compared to the NAM/GFS. Will see how this plays out but Canadian models have been doing better with these clippers so far.


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#303
Money

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:08 AM

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Gfs tries developing the southern wave but northern stream system pretty Mitch blocks it

CMC says what northern stream system? And instead has a strong high over Canada. It develops a weaker low which produces a swath of light snow over IA and WI

#304
Money

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:10 AM

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GEM at 102

https://www.tropical...&xpos=0&ypos=25

GFS at 102

https://www.tropical...2&xpos=0&ypos=0

#305
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:15 AM

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NAM/RGEM have 8-10 for Appleton/Wausau area while the GFS is in the 2-3 range. Quite a spread 24 hours out

 

Canadian models showing more precip for N.IL/S.WI compared to the NAM/GFS. Will see how this plays out but Canadian models have been doing better with these clippers so far.

 

As they did with all the Clipper patterns during 2013-14. I'd bet on the GEM/RGEM with clippers and beat the odds on avg's.. ;)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#306
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:16 AM

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Gfs tries developing the southern wave but northern stream system pretty Mitch blocks it
CMC says what northern stream system? And instead has a strong high over Canada. It develops a weaker low which produces a swath of light snow over IA and WI


The late weekend system? That's been in and out of the models, but something worth watching if it can develop.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#307
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:17 AM

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Yeah, something's getting in "the slot" and taking aim on the Lakes to the NE. Has the early looks of a Pan Handler coming together. 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#308
Money

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:20 AM

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The late weekend system? That's been in and out of the models, but something worth watching if it can develop.


Yeah it’s much different than the GFS

#309
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:27 AM

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GEM is still very bleh for here. Not expecting more than .5" out of this but I'll take what I can get. I would love to not set any warm or lack of snow records again this year.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#310
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:57 AM

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IWX..

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 432 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

Welcome to lake effect land. A few changes to the forecast this
morning, mainly adjusting area of maximum snowfall and adding
LaPorte County, IN to the advisory. The front has passed into the
southeast portion of our CWA as of 9z, and it will continue to sink
southeastward through the day. As planned, lake effect has commenced
as deeper moisture continues to make it southward across Lake
Michigan. Additionally, northwest winds are gusting to around
25-30 knots inland, and up to 35-40 knots on Lake Michigan. Thus
it looks like the forecast is largely on track for our event, and
most of the headlines are in good shape. While snow amounts in
LaPorte county will not reach more than 3 inches (in far north-
northeast parts), with the wind and low visibility due to blowing
and drifting, opted to bump them into a winter weather advisory.
In contrast to the other headlines, this one drops by 00z. Later
shifts can drop if it things clear out faster than anticipated, as
winds will eventually shift slightly, forcing bands further
northward.

 

On and off walls of white all morning. Not sure how much accumulation here but the winds are really whipping the tops of higher trees. Nasty conditions when that whips the +SN into your eyes. Need ski goggles to walk across the street to the parking lot  :lol:


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#311
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:11 AM

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IWX..


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 432 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

Welcome to lake effect land. A few changes to the forecast this
morning, mainly adjusting area of maximum snowfall and adding
LaPorte County, IN to the advisory. The front has passed into the
southeast portion of our CWA as of 9z, and it will continue to sink
southeastward through the day. As planned, lake effect has commenced
as deeper moisture continues to make it southward across Lake
Michigan. Additionally, northwest winds are gusting to around
25-30 knots inland, and up to 35-40 knots on Lake Michigan. Thus
it looks like the forecast is largely on track for our event, and
most of the headlines are in good shape. While snow amounts in
LaPorte county will not reach more than 3 inches (in far north-
northeast parts), with the wind and low visibility due to blowing
and drifting, opted to bump them into a winter weather advisory.
In contrast to the other headlines, this one drops by 00z. Later
shifts can drop if it things clear out faster than anticipated, as
winds will eventually shift slightly, forcing bands further
northward.

On and off walls of white all morning. Not sure how much accumulation here but the winds are really whipping the tops of higher trees. Nasty conditions when that whips the +SN into your eyes. Need ski goggles to walk across the street to the parking lot :lol:


I hope you're having an absolute blast up there buddy! I'm not gonna lie. I'm jealous. :)
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#312
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:37 AM

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Kinda in the "pinch myself" mode when realizing that I'm no longer posting theoretical storm maps at 200+ hrs out but instead these awesome looking maps are virtually on my door step!

 

NAM and GEM are both winners in my book (RGEM was similar btw)

 

Attached File  20171212 12z 33hr NAM surface.png   192.93KB   6 downloads

Attached File  20171212 12z 36hr GEM surface.png   168.76KB   5 downloads

 

Split the diff @ 994 mb??  :D

 

 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#313
Niko

Posted 12 December 2017 - 09:51 AM

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Kinda in the "pinch myself" mode when realizing that I'm no longer posting theoretical storm maps at 200+ hrs out but instead these awesome looking maps are virtually on my door step!

 

NAM and GEM are both winners in my book (RGEM was similar btw)

 

attachicon.gif20171212 12z 33hr NAM surface.png

attachicon.gif20171212 12z 36hr GEM surface.png

 

Split the diff @ 994 mb??  :D

Hey Jaster, we get blasted from snow. Dang!


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#314
Money

Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:28 AM

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Euro trying to go back to the weekend storm
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#315
gimmesnow

Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:51 AM

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Kinda in the "pinch myself" mode when realizing that I'm no longer posting theoretical storm maps at 200+ hrs out but instead these awesome looking maps are virtually on my door step!

 

NAM and GEM are both winners in my book (RGEM was similar btw)

 

attachicon.gif20171212 12z 33hr NAM surface.png

attachicon.gif20171212 12z 36hr GEM surface.png

 

Split the diff @ 994 mb??  :D

 

Wow, I'm getting Nebraska'ed in that. Hope that mouth closes up.


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#316
WBadgersW

Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:54 AM

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Wow, I'm getting Nebraska'ed in that. Hope that mouth closes up.


Going to be a close one here. Any small shift South or North is huge.

#317
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Wow, I'm getting Nebraska'ed in that. Hope that mouth closes up.


No, a super steep gradient between getting screwed over and the jackpot is known as getting Iowa'd. @hwy-20.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#318
Niko

Posted 12 December 2017 - 11:32 AM

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Noaa has heavy snow for my area tomorrow w 6-8+inches. Wow...this clipper means business. :o :ph34r:



#319
james1976

Posted 12 December 2017 - 11:38 AM

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Noaa has heavy snow for my area tomorrow w 6-8+inches. Wow...this clipper means business. :o :ph34r:

Man i cant wait to get one of those storms.
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#320
FV-Mike

Posted 12 December 2017 - 11:47 AM

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WRF3km model giving me some hope for tomorrow

Attached Files


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#321
Niko

Posted 12 December 2017 - 11:48 AM

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Man i cant wait to get one of those storms.

I hear ya!



#322
Money

Posted 12 December 2017 - 11:52 AM

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WWA here for 2-4

Milwaukee forecasting more for them then up here

Odd

#323
WBadgersW

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:10 PM

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WWA here for 2-4

Milwaukee forecasting more for them then up here

Odd


Lol

#324
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:19 PM

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WRF3km model giving me some hope for tomorrow

 

WWA here for 2-4

Milwaukee forecasting more for them then up here

Odd

 

Not sure on MKE's motives tbh, but south trends like yesterday are in vogue, especially with yesterday's storm bombing in E Canada - that alone argues for this getting pushed a bit south. Like yesterday, those on the south fringe (not OKwx - sorry bud) should rightfully hold onto hope imho


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#325
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:21 PM

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Noaa has heavy snow for my area tomorrow w 6-8+inches. Wow...this clipper means business. :o :ph34r:

 

So, where's your headlines then?? DTX -- hello? DTX?? Hello, anybody home??  :lol:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#326
Niko

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:23 PM

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So, where's your headlines then?? DTX -- hello? DTX?? Hello, anybody home??  :lol:

I can see them putting my area in a Winterstorm Warning by later this afternoon. ;)



#327
Tony

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:25 PM

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Not sure on MKE's motives tbh, but south trends like yesterday are in vogue, especially with yesterday's storm bombing in E Canada - that alone argues for this getting pushed a bit south. Like yesterday, those on the south fringe (not OKwx - sorry bud) should rightfully hold onto hope imho

I believe that we will be seeing snow in N IL just not to the extent of those farther north


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#328
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:26 PM

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I can see them putting my area in a Winterstorm Warning by later this afternoon. ;)

 

1st things 1st, you may get a Watch (blue boxer you!) 

 

3 to 5 inches for all locations except the Thumb
is expected. A very healthy fgen band will bring potential for 6 inches or more. The potential
placement of this band is expected to be somewhere between M-59 and the Michigan border with in/oh.
A winter storm watch will be given strong consideration with the 4pm forecast issuance. Finally -
lake-effect wrapping in on the back side of the low will give potential for a few additional inches
in portions of the Thumb making up for what is expected to be lighter daytime accumulations. A
winter storm watch will likely be issued this afternoon. 

 

:)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#329
Niko

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:31 PM

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1st things 1st, you may get a Watch (blue boxer you!) 

 

3 to 5 inches for all locations except the Thumb
is expected. A very healthy fgen band will bring potential for 6 inches or more. The potential
placement of this band is expected to be somewhere between M-59 and the Michigan border with in/oh.
A winter storm watch will be given strong consideration with the 4pm forecast issuance. Finally -
lake-effect wrapping in on the back side of the low will give potential for a few additional inches
in portions of the Thumb making up for what is expected to be lighter daytime accumulations. A
winter storm watch will likely be issued this afternoon. 

 

:)

:D



#330
Niko

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:32 PM

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Per Noaa:

 

  • Wednesday
     

    sn100.png

    Heavy Snow

    High: 21 °F

  • Wednesday
    Night

    nsn100.png

    Heavy Snow

    Low: 13 °F

     

    :D :ph34r: ;)



#331
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:40 PM

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Per Noaa:

 

  • Wednesday
     

    sn100.png

    Heavy Snow

    High: 21 °F

  • Wednesday
    Night

    nsn100.png

    Heavy Snow

    Low: 13 °F

     

    :D :ph34r: ;)

 

 

Per another former SEMI guy..

 

 

 

According to DTX's afternoon, a Winter Storm Watch is forthcoming for 5-8".

The rare heavy snow wording for 2"/he rates (per DTX's discussion) is also in the grids.

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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#332
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 December 2017 - 01:38 PM

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NAMily 18z runs looking down for us. What does fall comes when the temperature is 34, thus making for trace accumulations.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#333
jaster220

Posted 12 December 2017 - 01:46 PM

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Just need a slight bump south for a sweet spot in Marshall

 

Attached File  20171212 GRR pm snowfall graphic.jpg   232.38KB   0 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#334
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 December 2017 - 02:44 PM

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How on this god d**n Earth can you issue a WWA for widespread 4-8"?

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
345 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-057>059-065>067-073-074-130445-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0022.171213T1200Z-171214T0400Z/
Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Kent-Ionia-
Clinton-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids,
Mount Pleasant, Greenville, Alma, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns,
Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson
345 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest
Michigan.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#335
westMJim

Posted 12 December 2017 - 03:55 PM

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How on this god d**n Earth can you issue a WWA for widespread 4-8"?

GRR missed the mark today and in the areas that had the WSW there were school closings based on the warning and guess what? much of the area had sunny skies today. 



#336
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 12 December 2017 - 04:36 PM

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GRR missed the mark today and in the areas that had the WSW there were school closings based on the warning and guess what? much of the area had sunny skies today. 

GRR is honestly up there with some of the worst WFOs in the country. Seen a significant line of mistakes from them over the past 3 years, far more than any other office. I get that its LES, but MQT and DTX do not have these terrible verification issues.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#337
Niko

Posted 12 December 2017 - 06:54 PM

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Per TWC:

 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT... HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. A NARROW BAND OF SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY AFFECT A PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * WHERE... SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THUMB. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN I-69 AND I-94. * WHEN... FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW-COVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.



#338
Niko

Posted 12 December 2017 - 06:55 PM

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My area is in for a major snowstorm! :D

 

Noaa:

 

The potential for high impact
timing, briefly high-end snowfall rates, and storm totals of 5 to 8,
perhaps locally more, warrants the issuance of a winter storm watch.



#339
Madtown

Posted 12 December 2017 - 07:57 PM

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Duluth AFD update saying everything is coming in little south and may add a tier of counties south to the wwa

#340
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:05 PM

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OAX still refuses to acknowledge snow chances for here. They are actually up there with GRR for the worst CWA in the country. They don't even use AFDs for their intended purpose. One time, their long term AFD literally just said "Dry and mild weather will continue."


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#341
Madtown

Posted 12 December 2017 - 08:27 PM

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la Crosse also mentioning southward shift and added a county or 2

#342
Niko

Posted 13 December 2017 - 03:19 AM

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Per NOAA:

 

Winterstorm Warning for my area

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations
  of 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally higher amounts
  possible. Snowfall rates this afternoon reaching an inch per
  hour or greater.

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#343
Niko

Posted 13 December 2017 - 03:35 AM

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Currently frigid and cloudy w temps @ 9F.

:ph34r:



#344
Tom

Posted 13 December 2017 - 03:52 AM

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Per NOAA:

 

Winterstorm Warning for my area

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations
  of 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally higher amounts
  possible. Snowfall rates this afternoon reaching an inch per
  hour or greater.

Congrats on the first Warning snows of the season!  You may be the only one who really cash's in on this clipper as it seems the band is setting up farther north.  The stronger the clipper the farther north she goes.  Good luck!


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#345
Niko

Posted 13 December 2017 - 03:59 AM

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Congrats on the first Warning snows of the season!  You may be the only one who really cash's in on this clipper as it seems the band is setting up farther north.  The stronger the clipper the farther north she goes.  Good luck!

Thanks man......Tbh, It is kinda hard to believe that a clipper can be that strong....you would think that this type of storm would be a "Panhandle Hook Storm".

 

Btw: My local weatheman said just recently, that a foot could be in the forecast w this clipper. I can already see snow to my west racing towards SEMI. Also, it is going to be a very cold storm. Temps during this major snowstorm will not be getting outta the teens. Brutal!



#346
Tom

Posted 13 December 2017 - 04:31 AM

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Thanks man......Tbh, It is kinda hard to believe that a clipper can be that strong....you would think that this type of storm would be a "Panhandle Hook Storm".

 

Btw: My local weatheman said just recently, that a foot could be in the forecast w this clipper. I can already see snow to my west racing towards SEMI. Also, it is going to be a very cold storm. Temps during this major snowstorm will not be getting outta the teens. Brutal!

HRRR gets this down to a 989mb Clipper just south of Jaster's place!  That is pretty darn strong and I could see some pretty intense banding already in place across MN/WI which should pivot just right for MI peeps.  

 

As for MBY, the window of opportunity comes from LES starting around 10:00pm and lasting till about 3:00am for NE IL.  Latest HRRR showing some bands of LES developing later tonight.

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png



#347
Madtown

Posted 13 December 2017 - 05:14 AM

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this weekend fade away?

#348
Money

Posted 13 December 2017 - 05:19 AM

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Went from 7-10 to now 1-2 in 24 hours

Lol

#349
Madtown

Posted 13 December 2017 - 05:25 AM

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....so fading....lol

#350
westMJim

Posted 13 December 2017 - 05:32 AM

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The snow fall has now picked up in intensity it is close to moderate in intensity  and with a temperature of 19° the snow will not have a problem acclaiming on both the ground and untreated roads (even treated roads will become snow covered) I know some areas near the lake received a good amount of snow yesterday but here in Grand Rapids the official amount was reported at just a trace. In Muskegon they reported just over a half inch at .6” and in the center of the state Lansing had just under a half inch coming in a .4”  Today there will be much more snow that that.