December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!

[Stacsh]

New here, Grand Haven, Michigan.  Crazy lake band.  My drive to work going east went from heavy snow to clear in about 1.5 miles.  Hope the wind direction stays put for a few more hours.   It's right over my house, but not as heavy there as further south.  

[Tom]

New here, Grand Haven, Michigan.  Crazy lake band.  My drive to work going east went from heavy snow to clear in about 1.5 miles.  Hope the wind direction stays put for a few more hours.   It's right over my house, but not as heavy there as further south.  

Welcome aboard!  Nice to see new members this season.  Looks like #PureMichigan snow belts are locked for some hefty totals.  Good luck!  BTW, snap some pics if you can.  Thanks in advance.

[Minny_Weather]

New here, Grand Haven, Michigan. Crazy lake band. My drive to work going east went from heavy snow to clear in about 1.5 miles. Hope the wind direction stays put for a few more hours. It's right over my house, but not as heavy there as further south.

Another Michigan poster? Okay this is enough, we need to ban one to keep the balance even.

 

Just kidding man, welcome!

[Niko]

00z EPS/Control pretty much a lock for those in NC/E WI and into MI..this may turn into the seasons first warning snows for many up north and east of here.

They are calling for 4-7inches for my area, possibly more if it stalls a bit. Also, mentions that warnings might need to be put out.

[Money]

12z Nam still showing a narrow 8-12 inch band setting up between Appleton and Green Bay

 

Gets down to 994 on the IL/WI broader

[Money]

NAM totals

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2017121212&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[WBadgersW]

Not good trends, for MKE at least. We'll see what this afternoon brings.

[Stacsh]

Welcome aboard!  Nice to see new members this season.  Looks like #PureMichigan snow belts are locked for some hefty totals.  Good luck!  BTW, snap some pics if you can.  Thanks in advance.

Thanks, would love to be there right now to post some pics, but I work in Grand Rapids which is 30 miles east and it's sunny lol

[Tom]

That’s a nasty fronto band setting up across Money’s backyard. Some Lehs showing also as the clipper pivots.

[Money]

3km is pretty similar overall

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017121212&fh=39&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Tony]

If the trend is stronger, its going north...just the way it is with stronger clippers.  This one looks legit.

I would think it would be reverse. Since this system is coming from the north a stronger system would seem to slide farther to the south as usually a strong system from the south heads farther north. Just an observation on my part(right or wrong).

[jaster220]

Its a Winter Wonderland out there. Currently @ 3.1inches and still snowing. Gorgeous.

 

Congrats buddy! Finished with 3.7" in mby, which is about exactly what short-range models were painting 36-48 hrs out, so very satisfied with this little system. Improved on Saturday's total as hoped for. I asked Santa for a camera so I can snap wx pic's, but I borrowed one from the SMI forum that did a great job of capturing the "winter wonderland look" as I cleared my drive and walks about 11 pm last night. 

 

[Tony]

I would think it would be reverse. Since this system is coming from the north a stronger system would seem to slide farther to the south as usually a strong system from the south heads farther north. Just an observation on my part(right or wrong).

None-the-less with this stronger system parameters look good for a period of heavy LES on west side of the lake.

[jaster220]

New here, Grand Haven, Michigan.  Crazy lake band.  My drive to work going east went from heavy snow to clear in about 1.5 miles.  Hope the wind direction stays put for a few more hours.   It's right over my house, but not as heavy there as further south.  

 

Welcome fellow SWMI peep! Love GH, it's a town I'd move to in a heart-beat! You're gonna get rocked this winter! I drive to the lakeshore (St. Joe) from inland, so the opposite of you. It's some mid-winter nastiness out there this morning! 20 deg's and wind whipping ground squalls across the x-way and county roads. Saw my first snowmobile tracks this morning as well. Drove thru some LES streamers with vis down close to a 100 yds. Good luck with your LES/WSWarning today!

 

[Money]

Tom what are your thoughts on the potential weekend storm?

[Niko]

Congrats buddy! Finished with 3.7" in mby, which is about exactly what short-range models were painting 36-48 hrs out, so very satisfied with this little system. Improved on Saturday's total as hoped for. I asked Santa for a camera so I can snap wx pic's, but I borrowed one from the SMI forum that did a great job of capturing the "winter wonderland look" as I cleared my drive and walks about 11 pm last night. 

 

20171212 Det MI snowy holiday ornament.jpg

Awesome pic there!   Congrats on the snow amounts. 

 

Btw: Get ready for some more snows and this could be a bigger snow event.

[gosaints]

Tom what are your thoughts on the potential weekend storm?

Model all over the place right?  Green bay looks decent.  

[Tom]

Tom what are your thoughts on the potential weekend storm?

Well, at this point, I like seeing the Euro still showing the southern energy coming out of CO and most of the EPS members are agreeing to this scenario.  Knowing the LRC pattern, and the modeling behaviours at this juncture, I'm leaning towards a developing southern wave tracking up towards the GL's.  That's all I can say at this point.  What I did notice, and that caught my attention, is that last nights 00z Euro not only had the CO energy eject out into the Plains Day 5, but it also pulled the energy from MX up into TX/OK.  Interesting to say the least and something to look for bc we saw this happen in late Oct so I think its plausible.

 

Heading out for most of the day.  Will look forward to all your posts!

[Stacsh]

Welcome fellow SWMI peep! Love GH, it's a town I'd move to in a heart-beat! You're gonna get rocked this winter! I drive to the lakeshore (St. Joe) from inland, so the opposite of you. It's some mid-winter nastiness out there this morning! 20 deg's and wind whipping ground squalls across the x-way and county roads. Saw my first snowmobile tracks this morning as well. Drove thru some LES streamers with vis down close to a 100 yds. Good luck with your LES/WSWarning today!

 

20171212 GRR am snowfall graphic.png

Thanks!  Here in GH, right on the lake shore, a west wind (which seems to have been the trend the last few years on LE events) tends to blow it east over our heads, but the wind is perfect today!

[Minny_Weather]

It's about time we got SOMETHING from one of these.

 

 

[Money]

NAM/RGEM have 8-10 for Appleton/Wausau area while the GFS is in the 2-3 range. Quite a spread 24 hours out

[Tony]

Canadian models showing more precip for N.IL/S.WI compared to the NAM/GFS. Will see how this plays out but Canadian models have been doing better with these clippers so far.

[Money]

Gfs tries developing the southern wave but northern stream system pretty Mitch blocks it

 

CMC says what northern stream system? And instead has a strong high over Canada. It develops a weaker low which produces a swath of light snow over IA and WI

[Money]

GEM at 102

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121212&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=25

 

GFS at 102

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121212&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=0

[jaster220]

NAM/RGEM have 8-10 for Appleton/Wausau area while the GFS is in the 2-3 range. Quite a spread 24 hours out

 

Canadian models showing more precip for N.IL/S.WI compared to the NAM/GFS. Will see how this plays out but Canadian models have been doing better with these clippers so far.

 

As they did with all the Clipper patterns during 2013-14. I'd bet on the GEM/RGEM with clippers and beat the odds on avg's..

[hlcater]

Gfs tries developing the southern wave but northern stream system pretty Mitch blocks it

CMC says what northern stream system? And instead has a strong high over Canada. It develops a weaker low which produces a swath of light snow over IA and WI

The late weekend system? That's been in and out of the models, but something worth watching if it can develop.

[jaster220]

GEM at 102

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121212&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=25

 

GFS at 102

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121212&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Yeah, something's getting in "the slot" and taking aim on the Lakes to the NE. Has the early looks of a Pan Handler coming together. 

[Money]

The late weekend system? That's been in and out of the models, but something worth watching if it can develop.

Yeah it’s much different than the GFS

[Minny_Weather]

GEM is still very bleh for here. Not expecting more than .5" out of this but I'll take what I can get. I would love to not set any warm or lack of snow records again this year.

[jaster220]

IWX..

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 432 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

Welcome to lake effect land. A few changes to the forecast this
morning, mainly adjusting area of maximum snowfall and adding
LaPorte County, IN to the advisory. The front has passed into the
southeast portion of our CWA as of 9z, and it will continue to sink
southeastward through the day. As planned, lake effect has commenced
as deeper moisture continues to make it southward across Lake
Michigan. Additionally, northwest winds are gusting to around
25-30 knots inland, and up to 35-40 knots on Lake Michigan. Thus
it looks like the forecast is largely on track for our event, and
most of the headlines are in good shape. While snow amounts in
LaPorte county will not reach more than 3 inches (in far north-
northeast parts), with the wind and low visibility due to blowing
and drifting, opted to bump them into a winter weather advisory.
In contrast to the other headlines, this one drops by 00z. Later
shifts can drop if it things clear out faster than anticipated, as
winds will eventually shift slightly, forcing bands further
northward.

 

On and off walls of white all morning. Not sure how much accumulation here but the winds are really whipping the tops of higher trees. Nasty conditions when that whips the +SN into your eyes. Need ski goggles to walk across the street to the parking lot 

[OKwx2k4]

IWX..

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Issued at 432 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

 

Welcome to lake effect land. A few changes to the forecast this

morning, mainly adjusting area of maximum snowfall and adding

LaPorte County, IN to the advisory. The front has passed into the

southeast portion of our CWA as of 9z, and it will continue to sink

southeastward through the day. As planned, lake effect has commenced

as deeper moisture continues to make it southward across Lake

Michigan. Additionally, northwest winds are gusting to around

25-30 knots inland, and up to 35-40 knots on Lake Michigan. Thus

it looks like the forecast is largely on track for our event, and

most of the headlines are in good shape. While snow amounts in

LaPorte county will not reach more than 3 inches (in far north-

northeast parts), with the wind and low visibility due to blowing

and drifting, opted to bump them into a winter weather advisory.

In contrast to the other headlines, this one drops by 00z. Later

shifts can drop if it things clear out faster than anticipated, as

winds will eventually shift slightly, forcing bands further

northward.

 

On and off walls of white all morning. Not sure how much accumulation here but the winds are really whipping the tops of higher trees. Nasty conditions when that whips the +SN into your eyes. Need ski goggles to walk across the street to the parking lot

I hope you're having an absolute blast up there buddy! I'm not gonna lie. I'm jealous.

[jaster220]

Kinda in the "pinch myself" mode when realizing that I'm no longer posting theoretical storm maps at 200+ hrs out but instead these awesome looking maps are virtually on my door step!

 

NAM and GEM are both winners in my book (RGEM was similar btw)

 

 

Split the diff @ 994 mb?? 

 

 

[Niko]

Kinda in the "pinch myself" mode when realizing that I'm no longer posting theoretical storm maps at 200+ hrs out but instead these awesome looking maps are virtually on my door step!

 

NAM and GEM are both winners in my book (RGEM was similar btw)

 

20171212 12z 33hr NAM surface.png

20171212 12z 36hr GEM surface.png

 

Split the diff @ 994 mb?? 

Hey Jaster, we get blasted from snow. Dang!

[Money]

Euro trying to go back to the weekend storm

[gimmesnow]

Kinda in the "pinch myself" mode when realizing that I'm no longer posting theoretical storm maps at 200+ hrs out but instead these awesome looking maps are virtually on my door step!

 

NAM and GEM are both winners in my book (RGEM was similar btw)

 

20171212 12z 33hr NAM surface.png

20171212 12z 36hr GEM surface.png

 

Split the diff @ 994 mb?? 

 

Wow, I'm getting Nebraska'ed in that. Hope that mouth closes up.

[WBadgersW]

Wow, I'm getting Nebraska'ed in that. Hope that mouth closes up.

Going to be a close one here. Any small shift South or North is huge.

[hlcater]

Wow, I'm getting Nebraska'ed in that. Hope that mouth closes up.

No, a super steep gradient between getting screwed over and the jackpot is known as getting Iowa'd. @hwy-20.

[Niko]

Noaa has heavy snow for my area tomorrow w 6-8+inches. Wow...this clipper means business.

[james1976]

Noaa has heavy snow for my area tomorrow w 6-8+inches. Wow...this clipper means business.

Man i cant wait to get one of those storms.

[FV-Mike]

WRF3km model giving me some hope for tomorrow