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December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!


jaster220

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Man i cant wait to get one of those storms.

I hear ya!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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WRF3km model giving me some hope for tomorrow

 

WWA here for 2-4

 

Milwaukee forecasting more for them then up here

 

Odd

 

Not sure on MKE's motives tbh, but south trends like yesterday are in vogue, especially with yesterday's storm bombing in E Canada - that alone argues for this getting pushed a bit south. Like yesterday, those on the south fringe (not OKwx - sorry bud) should rightfully hold onto hope imho

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Noaa has heavy snow for my area tomorrow w 6-8+inches. Wow...this clipper means business. :o :ph34r:

 

So, where's your headlines then?? DTX -- hello? DTX?? Hello, anybody home??  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So, where's your headlines then?? DTX -- hello? DTX?? Hello, anybody home??  :lol:

I can see them putting my area in a Winterstorm Warning by later this afternoon. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not sure on MKE's motives tbh, but south trends like yesterday are in vogue, especially with yesterday's storm bombing in E Canada - that alone argues for this getting pushed a bit south. Like yesterday, those on the south fringe (not OKwx - sorry bud) should rightfully hold onto hope imho

I believe that we will be seeing snow in N IL just not to the extent of those farther north

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I can see them putting my area in a Winterstorm Warning by later this afternoon. ;)

 

1st things 1st, you may get a Watch (blue boxer you!) 

 

3 to 5 inches for all locations except the Thumb

is expected. A very healthy fgen band will bring potential for 6 inches or more. The potential

placement of this band is expected to be somewhere between M-59 and the Michigan border with in/oh.

A winter storm watch will be given strong consideration with the 4pm forecast issuance. Finally -

lake-effect wrapping in on the back side of the low will give potential for a few additional inches

in portions of the Thumb making up for what is expected to be lighter daytime accumulations. A

winter storm watch will likely be issued this afternoon. 

 

:)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1st things 1st, you may get a Watch (blue boxer you!) 

 

3 to 5 inches for all locations except the Thumb

is expected. A very healthy fgen band will bring potential for 6 inches or more. The potential

placement of this band is expected to be somewhere between M-59 and the Michigan border with in/oh.

A winter storm watch will be given strong consideration with the 4pm forecast issuance. Finally -

lake-effect wrapping in on the back side of the low will give potential for a few additional inches

in portions of the Thumb making up for what is expected to be lighter daytime accumulations. A

winter storm watch will likely be issued this afternoon. 

 

:)

:D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per Noaa:

 

  • Wednesday
     

    http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/medium/sn100.png

    Heavy Snow

    High: 21 °F

  • Wednesday
    Night

    http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/medium/nsn100.png

    Heavy Snow

    Low: 13 °F

     

    :D :ph34r: ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per Noaa:

 

  • Wednesday

     

    http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/medium/sn100.png

    Heavy Snow

    High: 21 °F

  • Wednesday

    Night

    http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/medium/nsn100.png

    Heavy Snow

    Low: 13 °F

     

    :D :ph34r: ;)

 

 

Per another former SEMI guy..

 

 

 

According to DTX's afternoon, a Winter Storm Watch is forthcoming for 5-8".

 

The rare heavy snow wording for 2"/he rates (per DTX's discussion) is also in the grids.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just need a slight bump south for a sweet spot in Marshall

 

20171212 GRR pm snowfall graphic.jpg

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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How on this god D**n Earth can you issue a WWA for widespread 4-8"?

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
345 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-057>059-065>067-073-074-130445-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0022.171213T1200Z-171214T0400Z/
Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Kent-Ionia-
Clinton-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids,
Mount Pleasant, Greenville, Alma, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns,
Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson
345 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest
Michigan.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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GRR missed the mark today and in the areas that had the WSW there were school closings based on the warning and guess what? much of the area had sunny skies today. 

GRR is honestly up there with some of the worst WFOs in the country. Seen a significant line of mistakes from them over the past 3 years, far more than any other office. I get that its LES, but MQT and DTX do not have these terrible verification issues.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Per TWC:

 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT... HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. A NARROW BAND OF SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY AFFECT A PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * WHERE... SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THUMB. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN I-69 AND I-94. * WHEN... FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW-COVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My area is in for a major snowstorm! :D

 

Noaa:

 

The potential for high impact
timing, briefly high-end snowfall rates, and storm totals of 5 to 8,
perhaps locally more, warrants the issuance of a winter storm watch.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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OAX still refuses to acknowledge snow chances for here. They are actually up there with GRR for the worst CWA in the country. They don't even use AFDs for their intended purpose. One time, their long term AFD literally just said "Dry and mild weather will continue."

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Per NOAA:

 

Winterstorm Warning for my area

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations  of 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally higher amounts  possible. Snowfall rates this afternoon reaching an inch per  hour or greater.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per NOAA:

 

Winterstorm Warning for my area

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations  of 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally higher amounts  possible. Snowfall rates this afternoon reaching an inch per  hour or greater.

Congrats on the first Warning snows of the season!  You may be the only one who really cash's in on this clipper as it seems the band is setting up farther north.  The stronger the clipper the farther north she goes.  Good luck!

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Congrats on the first Warning snows of the season!  You may be the only one who really cash's in on this clipper as it seems the band is setting up farther north.  The stronger the clipper the farther north she goes.  Good luck!

Thanks man......Tbh, It is kinda hard to believe that a clipper can be that strong....you would think that this type of storm would be a "Panhandle Hook Storm".

 

Btw: My local weatheman said just recently, that a foot could be in the forecast w this clipper. I can already see snow to my west racing towards SEMI. Also, it is going to be a very cold storm. Temps during this major snowstorm will not be getting outta the teens. Brutal!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Thanks man......Tbh, It is kinda hard to believe that a clipper can be that strong....you would think that this type of storm would be a "Panhandle Hook Storm".

 

Btw: My local weatheman said just recently, that a foot could be in the forecast w this clipper. I can already see snow to my west racing towards SEMI. Also, it is going to be a very cold storm. Temps during this major snowstorm will not be getting outta the teens. Brutal!

HRRR gets this down to a 989mb Clipper just south of Jaster's place!  That is pretty darn strong and I could see some pretty intense banding already in place across MN/WI which should pivot just right for MI peeps.  

 

As for MBY, the window of opportunity comes from LES starting around 10:00pm and lasting till about 3:00am for NE IL.  Latest HRRR showing some bands of LES developing later tonight.

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png

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The snow fall has now picked up in intensity it is close to moderate in intensity  and with a temperature of 19° the snow will not have a problem acclaiming on both the ground and untreated roads (even treated roads will become snow covered) I know some areas near the lake received a good amount of snow yesterday but here in Grand Rapids the official amount was reported at just a trace. In Muskegon they reported just over a half inch at .6” and in the center of the state Lansing had just under a half inch coming in a .4”  Today there will be much more snow that that. 

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The snow fall has now picked up in intensity it is close to moderate in intensity  and with a temperature of 19° the snow will not have a problem acclaiming on both the ground and untreated roads (even treated roads will become snow covered) I know some areas near the lake received a good amount of snow yesterday but here in Grand Rapids the official amount was reported at just a trace. In Muskegon they reported just over a half inch at .6” and in the center of the state Lansing had just under a half inch coming in a .4”  Today there will be much more snow that that. 

Get that snowblower ready! ;)

6-12 inches looking likely.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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HRRR gets this down to a 989mb Clipper just south of Jaster's place!  That is pretty darn strong and I could see some pretty intense banding already in place across MN/WI which should pivot just right for MI peeps.  

 

As for MBY, the window of opportunity comes from LES starting around 10:00pm and lasting till about 3:00am for NE IL.  Latest HRRR showing some bands of LES developing later tonight.

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_17.png

This will be a great storm. Accumulations in the order of 6-12 looking very likely and locked in. :D :ph34r:

 

Hope you can win out at least some LES. Good luck on that!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This will be a great storm. Accumulations in the order of 6-12 looking very likely and locked in. :D :ph34r:

 

Hope you can win out at least some LES. Good luck on that!

I'm not holding my breath but it would be nice to cover the grass tips...LOL....of which, will probably all melt by the weekend anyway.  MI is in the prime spot right now for the next 5 days until around the Solstice period things getting more interesting the farther west you go.

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I'm not holding my breath but it would be nice to cover the grass tips...LOL....of which, will probably all melt by the weekend anyway.  MI is in the prime spot right now for the next 5 days until around the Solstice period things getting more interesting the farther west you go.

Probably even beyond that as my extended shows snowy weather even b4 Solstice period and on into Christmas day. There will have to be a storm to watch on that timeframe.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

344 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

 

...Heavy Snow To Impact The Evening Commute...

 

MIZ047-053-060>062-068>070-075-076-131645-

/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.171213T1500Z-171214T0600Z/

/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.171213T1500Z-171214T0500Z/

Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-

Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-

Including the cities of Midland, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer,

Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit

344 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO

MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,

including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations

of 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally higher amounts

possible. Snowfall rates this afternoon reaching an inch per

hour or greater.

 

* WHERE...Midland, Saginaw, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer,

Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties.

 

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight. Peak

snowfall rates in the late afternoon hours.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for visiblities approaching a

quarter mile at times. Roads will be snow covered and very

difficult to travel on. If you must travel this afternoon and

evening, expect a much longer and stressful commute.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra

flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an

emergency.

 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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....still buying Tom, but first it was the 5th then the 16th, now the 21st ish. Hope it works, but the snow deficit grows up to about 10" below normal now.

What do you mean?? Are you referring to potential systems to track for YBY? If so, I was always a believer the 4th/5th Blitz to be a hard cutter, the 16th-18th to track NW of Chi (but may actually be right over head) and the Winter Solstice storm to be more of a player farther south. We’ll see how it goes from here.

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Not just for Mby. Not referring to specific storms either. Northern WI got off to a quick start in Nov, but not enough snow to even open trails yet. Mich is scoring big, but outside of there pretty blah as we head into mid to late December. For what was supposed to be an above avg snow year for 90% of Wisco, there is no way we make up a 10" difference (mby) and pull ahead to above avg. numbers

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