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The Winter Solstice Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:32 AM

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The long awaited, much anticipated, and well predicted Winter Solstice Storm is nearly upon us.  Who will cash in on the snow???  Could this actually put an end to the snow drought for many on here???  The devil is in the details but trends are favoring our first widespread winter storm to effect our sub forum.

 

12z Euro.,..


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#2
james1976

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:35 AM

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The long awaited, much anticipated, and well predicted Winter Solstice Storm is nearly upon us.  Who will cash in on the snow???  Could this actually put an end to the snow drought for many on here???  The devil is in the details but trends are favoring our first widespread winter storm to effect our sub forum.

 

12z Euro.,..

How much rain does the southern end of that have to overcome?



#3
Tom

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:40 AM

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How much rain does the southern end of that have to overcome?


Not much at all. Most precip falls as snow north of the 0c thermals.

#4
Hawkeye

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:50 AM

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And the sharp snow gradient from northern Iowa to southern Iowa continues into another winter.  If all I'm going to get from this is some light rain followed by a half inch of slop at the end, forget it.  Keep the entire thing north.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#5
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:52 AM

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ecmwf_mslp_conus_138.png

 

 

Surface low is too far north for those south of HWY20 to get anything other than back end flurries. Reminds me of the last 2 winters almost exactly lol.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#6
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:54 AM

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I think we might want to use the kuchera method though. Much of the snow is delayed behind the front in the 20-25 degree air on the EURO.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#7
Tom

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:56 AM

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There is a confused look on the Euro with another 3rd piece of energy that rides up the trailing cold front all the way from deep TX. With all these peices of energy around it’s going to be interesting tracking this thing. Maybe it goes back to a 980’s storm and bundles all the energy into a doozy. Could be another last min trend.
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#8
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:59 AM

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There is a confused look on the Euro with another 3rd piece of energy that rides up the trailing cold front all the way from deep TX. With all these peices of energy around it’s going to be interesting tracking this thing. Maybe it goes back to a 980’s storm and bundles all the energy into a doozy. Could be another last min trend.

As long as the south doesn't get hit with any winter weather I'm good with anything else lol. 


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#9
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:59 AM

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There is a confused look on the Euro with another 3rd piece of energy that rides up the trailing cold front all the way from deep TX. With all these peices of energy around it’s going to be interesting tracking this thing. Maybe it goes back to a 980’s storm and bundles all the energy into a doozy. Could be another last min trend.

Which would turn the storm into a hard upper GL's cutter and screw everyone but MN. I'll take a hard pass on that if it means a hard cutter is in the cards. I just want to see something greater than an inch at this point.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#10
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:00 AM

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Which would turn the storm into a hard upper GL's cutter and screw everyone but MN. I'll take a hard pass on that if it means a hard cutter is in the cards. I just want to see something greater than an inch at this point.

I agree. 


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#11
Tom

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:05 AM

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Which would turn the storm into a hard upper GL's cutter and screw everyone but MN. I'll take a hard pass on that if it means a hard cutter is in the cards. I just want to see something greater than an inch at this point.


Not if it digs and when I looked at the 500mb vorticity it looks like it wants to dig. At this point, anything is on the table.

#12
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:13 AM

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Not if it digs and when I looked at the 500mb vorticity it looks like it wants to dig. At this point, anything is on the table.

Wants to and actually does are two different things. It digging further into, say, OK is still in the cards for sure, but getting a storm to dig that much is challenging. Especially if it wants to rapidly deepen into a GL's bomb. The absolute best case if it were to bomb out, would be to ever so slightly deepen as it dug into OK then lift northward into MO and begin deepening at a greater rate. Any sooner than that, and it will travel poleward more quickly. Which, I'd like to avoid if at all possible.

 

I should also say that I think the storm getting to the 980s in any degree seems unlikely to me. Particularly because no models want to do that and have seemed to like a ~1000mb low in general.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#13
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:18 AM

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One saving grace for those in mn/wi is the strong high to the north

You can see it on the euro. Won’t cut into it
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#14
Tom

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:27 AM

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Wants to and actually does are two different things. It digging further into, say, OK is still in the cards for sure, but getting a storm to dig that much is challenging. Especially if it wants to rapidly deepen into a GL's bomb. The absolute best case if it were to bomb out, would be to ever so slightly deepen as it dug into OK then lift northward into MO and begin deepening at a greater rate. Any sooner than that, and it will travel poleward more quickly. Which, I'd like to avoid if at all possible.

I should also say that I think the storm getting to the 980s in any degree seems unlikely to me. Particularly because no models want to do that and have seemed to like a ~1000mb low in general.


Ya, 980’s is a long shot but a stronger storm is still possible. I was referring back to the 12z run from 2 days ago when I made that comment.

#15
mlgamer

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:38 AM

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The 12z GFS/EURO had two snowfall doughnut holes over the next 10 days. One in SD into MN and the usual KS into MO. It will be interesting to see how all of this unfolds beginning with this first system.


LNK_Weather: "Why is Kansas getting more than us? Kansas sucks."

http://theweatherfor...owers/?p=301282


#16
Tom

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:47 AM

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12z Euro Control went north with the snow band and hits MSP/N WI/UP....12z EPS 2" mean still paints N IA/S WI on north... 


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#17
Madtown

Posted 16 December 2017 - 01:05 PM

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Riding the southern edge 5 days out normally doesn't boad well.

#18
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 01:13 PM

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Not feeling the best about this one. If it hoes north thats been the trend all winter

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#19
GDR

Posted 16 December 2017 - 01:26 PM

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Riding the train

#20
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 01:27 PM

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Im not gonna live and die by one run though. Still a good shot

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#21
jaster220

Posted 16 December 2017 - 01:40 PM

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Was mentioned that we're at least a day away from good sampling. Patience required with this for sure!

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#22
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:03 PM

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18z looks a bit south and holding more energy back

#23
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:05 PM

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There’s precip from the Rockies all the way to Michigan at hr 126

#24
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:15 PM

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18z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=
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#25
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:16 PM

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18z GFS with a step NW like like GEM and Euro it looks like. Gosaints reeling in the first big dog.

#26
bud2380

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:17 PM

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18z GFs even worse for the I80 corridor in Iowa. I’ve seen this movie before. It always ends the same way.

#27
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:31 PM

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The same areas that did well the past 2 seasons seem to be in for it again this storm. It's 5 days out yet, but still. A common theme is a common theme. It seems like this always happens.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#28
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:37 PM

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Just wonderful lol

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#29
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:40 PM

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Afternoon disco from MPX:
Initially, a warm air advection regime will commence late
Wednesday across central Minnesota where the best potential of a
few inches of snow will fall. The bigger question is the storm
moving out of the Rockies and into the plains late in the week.
The set up is a classic Colorado, or Plains low which does support
a large swath of heavy snow on the northwest side of the surface
low track. Using CIPS analogs, valid around Wednesday afternoon,
does support a swath of warm air advection snowfall across central
Minnesota. The schematic of the CIPS analogs does have a small
but heavy band of snow across west central to central Minnesota
(1st analog is December 9, 2012). However, it looks as though this
could be two systems interacting, and not so much on the initial
warm air advection regime. Looking at stormdata during that
period in 2012, there was a significant blizzard in western
Minnesota, where some areas in west central Minnesota receiving a
foot or more of snow. I don`t want anyone to get excited for a lot
of snow, but the potential is there.
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#30
GDR

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:46 PM

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The edge of this will be up near ia MN border when all said and done

#31
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:47 PM

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Thats a little bit much don't you think DVN? 80% snow POPs at this range. That's how you jinx a storm 101.

 

a197ffe53e51f68b169cff610add1d7b.png


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#32
Tom

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:51 PM

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18z GFS is also picking up on the energy that the 12z Euro showed coming out of the deep south....so many things going on, needless to say, it's going to be interesting tracking this complex system.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png



#33
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 02:58 PM

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Ah this is a bunch of crap what Im seeing lately.Not feeling the christmas spirit as I did yesterday lol


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#34
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 03:04 PM

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Ah this is a bunch of crap what Im seeing lately.Not feeling the christmas spirit as I did yesterday lol

Dude you're living and dying every run. Chill. Gonna be a long rest of the winter if you keep that attitude. I learned the hard way. Does it look good right now? No, not for us, but what are you gonna do about it?


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#35
Niko

Posted 16 December 2017 - 03:08 PM

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Per NOAA:

 

The second half of next week will be impacted by a low pressure
system that will develop over the central plains and push
northeastward starting on Thursday. The warm front will lift through
SE Michigan during the afternoon and lead to a chance of showers
that will increase in likelihood and coverage overnight as the low
pressure center approaches. Precipitation type forecast confidence
is still low as models continue to diverge on placement and timing
of the low. If the low passes to the north, a rain to snow evolution
will be most likely, but if the low passes over Ohio, we will stay
on the cold side and an all-snow solution is more likely.

Regardless, widespread precipitation is expected Friday. Another
cold airmass will settle into the region for next weekend in the
wake of this system.



#36
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 03:36 PM

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Dude you're living and dying every run. Chill. Gonna be a long rest of the winter if you keep that attitude. I learned the hard way. Does it look good right now? No, not for us, but what are you gonna do about it?

I will complain all I want. I was more patient years ago when things were good lol


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#37
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 03:38 PM

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I will complain all I want. I was more patient years ago when things were good lol

Okay... These are the types of people that run facebook weather pages folks, remember that.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#38
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 04:16 PM

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Life isnt about being unrealistically positive, the fact is the trend for things is to go north and east. I know enough to know it could change again.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#39
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 04:19 PM

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And so what if I complain, snowlover is from Omaha and hes a pain in the a**. I know things can change but Im pissed and want snow and i need some place to vent at.
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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 6.25"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#40
bud2380

Posted 16 December 2017 - 04:30 PM

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Ironically the 18z GEFS looks much better for e Iowa than previous runs despite the Op model taking a turn for the worst

Attached File  E1B4A162-C821-4EE7-9CAF-D5301977A068.png   1.08MB   1 downloads
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#41
bud2380

Posted 16 December 2017 - 04:37 PM

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Looks like quite a few of the GEFS members must be showing the system the following weekend like Tom has been mentioning

#42
jaster220

Posted 16 December 2017 - 06:23 PM

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This is supposed to be the year when we're no longer the zone of dearth across this sub. I will be surprised if this has finished trending this far out.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#43
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 December 2017 - 07:27 PM

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Funny how most of the GEFS members get rid of this storm but put on a good show for Christmas Eve/Christmas.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#44
Grizzcoat

Posted 16 December 2017 - 07:53 PM

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Hopefully the trend stops but the NW trend seems to be continue through HR 84 GFS with warmer air even further N compared to previous runs. I hope I'am wrong but  I call a SD- Central MN to N WI jack pot.



#45
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 07:53 PM

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Gfs is gonna be way north this run

#46
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 December 2017 - 07:55 PM

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0z GFS seems to be slowing things down a bit, and heading north through hour 84

#47
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 07:58 PM

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Gem coming in way north also

#48
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:00 PM

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This isn’t good for anyone here.

#49
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:04 PM

Money

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Gem

https://www.tropical...xpos=0&ypos=118

https://www.tropical...xpos=0&ypos=143

#50
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:06 PM

hlcater

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Gfs is gonna be way north this run

Doesn't seem any more north than it was at 18z. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn