Money Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Why are you using maps that go to hr 240 when talking about this storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 You do better on both. I just scored 12.5" over 10 days, the 5-ish shown by the GFS won't excite, especially if it's lost to rain puddles, falls with temps at 35F etc.. Pardon me, but I'm setting the bar a bit higher, Christmas or not.. I'm still awaiting my pay-back for the '09 fiasco GEM might work for ya. Its Pre-Christmas week. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Side note....coldest 46 i can remember today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Why are you using maps that go to hr 240 when talking about this storm? Good point, but Tom mentioned something about extension and I just ran away with it I guess. My bad Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z GEFS... Can I vote for starting with e19 and ironing out the details later. Suddenly, I've gone from little interest in a Rainer, to hopeful for action 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 There are more 12z EPS individual members showing a swath of snow from the secondary wave....more so, then last nights 00z EPS run...trend is positive in my opinion....overall, it keeps the track from the Texarkana region up thru S IL/S IN/OH. I counted nearly 50% of the members jumping on the secondary low development. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z GEFS... I will take Ensemble Memeber 9 for $200 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 too far south for southern wi? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 18z NAM coming north with the secondary/southern piece....FWIW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 too far south for southern wi?If there is a wound up second wave I think you are in a good spot... The runs tonight show start to zero in on that idea. The wave should be fully sampled the more I look at it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 The 18z NAM seems to be favorable for alot of you guys at 500 mb. End of the run but shows the potential is there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 There are more 12z EPS individual members showing a swath of snow from the secondary wave....more so, then last nights 00z EPS run...trend is positive in my opinion....overall, it keeps the track from the Texarkana region up thru S IL/S IN/OH. I counted nearly 50% of the members jumping on the secondary low development. Yep, lookin better in the past 24 hrs, quite a turn-about actually. CPC steps away from the Heavy Snow they painted across the north yesterday, but not really committed to the precip down south getting north enough to show it over our region. No shock really, they've missed every storm since October's flooding rainers. Another theme of this early winter continues imho 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 The 18z NAM seems to be favorable for alot of you guys at 500 mb. End of the run but shows the potential is there.Yup. Starts to explode at hr 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 18z NAM nearly in a perfect "slot" position right as it begins to deepen... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 All gonna depend on when that southern wave strengthens and finally ejects... It cant be to slow or nothing will happen. Its really a more of a delicate system than what we have had in the last couple seasons. Small changes at 500 mb will have large impacts on the evolution of the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 All gonna depend on when that southern wave strengthens and finally ejects... It cant be to slow or nothing will happen. Its really a more of a delicate system than what we have had in the last couple seasons. Small changes at 500 mb will have large impacts on the evolution of the system.Very true. This is why I had flashbacks of the late October GL's bomb bc none of the models (except the Euro) had any idea of a big storm 4-5 days out. Then once we got into the 84 hour range we began to see the GFS correct it's know (to fast to the east bias) and the GGEM/NAM jumped on board. The NAM steadily saw the phasing each day going forward so when I see today's 18z run showing the phase late in the run, I see flashbacks of that particular Oct storm which also was very delicate as you mentioned. Honestly, that storm was about as complex as this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Well, seeing how my towel is now in orbit, I guess it is time to see just how cold we can get around here into next week! 13-14 coming to mind if models are anywhere close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 18z gfs is gonna be farther east this run compared to 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 DVN AFD didn't even mention the GFS, seems to be completely discounting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Definitely a SE shift on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Tough forecast. It’s gonna be all about when that southern wave ejects etc. gfs delays it a little bit and is a bit weaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 0z runs should be fully sampled I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Someone said(i think on AmWx) said that this set up is especially finicky due to the way that it ejects. Also how any delay will force the system southeast and weaker. For most of this sub we'd want a faster evolution, otherwise the only people that will see any appreciable snow is MI. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Well once again Michigan posters win out here where the rest of us are snow starved lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 The GFS just races this wave through which will make it hard to get any decent accumulations. I think it's too fast no matter who ends up getting snow out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Man guys what a winter storm! FLURRY WARNING MAY BE ISSUED! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Someone please take the winter storm title off this post. It doesn't deserve it. Even calling it a system is not the right word. More like a wave. lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just for the record, this storm sucks. Crazy how much it changed/weakened in just 24 hours. I looked at yesterday's 18z GFS and it still showed 6-10" for a huge area including MSP. Now it shows 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 If that storm system near New Years doesn't show up we'll only end up with a trace of snow the entire month of December. Thats crazy insane. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 If that storm system near New Years doesn't show up we'll only end up with a trace of snow the entire month of December. Thats crazy insane. Same here. We had a couple of trace amounts. A very light dusting maybe on grassy areas one day, and some flurries or very light snow one or two other times that didn't amount to anything measurable. Not a great start to winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 I think the only winners so far is the south. That was a once in a lifetime situation they had Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 What a difference a couple days make in the model watching world. Bummed that this one is shearing out and not going to deliver much here. Hope we can get the next one before the year is up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just for the record, this storm sucks. Crazy how much it changed/weakened in just 24 hours. I looked at yesterday's 18z GFS and it still showed 6-10" for a huge area including MSP. Now it shows I’m just happy the existing snowpack mostly survived 40F yesterday and 35F today. If the snow on the ground had melted, it would make missing this storm sting even more. White Christmas is now a lock here with temps on the major decline. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 local Mets punting...sayin inch at best through Sat am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 weather channel buying 3-5" here and 5-8" from milwaukee on north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 weather channel buying 3-5" here and 5-8" from milwaukee on north.They just want a reason to name another winter "storm". 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Anyone know where 2017 ranks for least amount of snow in a calendar year? It's gotta be close to the top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Anyone know where 2017 ranks for least amount of snow in a calendar year? It's gotta be close to the top.I think it will be the top assuming we don't pull a nice storm out of our asses before the year ends. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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