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The Winter Solstice Storm


Tom

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Stop going north please! I beg you! But honestly this was likely going to be a MSP special anyways so I'm not surprised. Especially if the surface low trends stronger like it has. The blocking high just isn't strong enough for us down south to cash in unfortunately.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Great job with all the posts coming in.  I had a late night last night celebrating one my best friends B Day in the west loop.  This time of year the city is electric and festive.  The only thing missing is snow for the holidays!

 

Interesting trends in the GFS trying to amp this storm which correlates well with the EAR/BSR at the potential for an explosive system.  We saw this leading up to the Dec 4th/5th Blizzard that hit MN and this storm is tracking into the LRC's Long Wave Long Term Trough position where systems intensified.  I'd like to see the 12z Euro run today before jumping the gun but my gut tells me this will end up being a MSP/NC WI special if trends towards a stronger storm persist.  This is a complex system and I hope we get some more consistency today/tomorrow as the wave will be better sampled.  It's currently located in the NE PAC/AK where I've learned models have trouble reading the energy.  As it rides down the west coast of N.A., how far south this storm digs and how much the Alaskan ridge pops along with phasing will be issues the models need to resolve.  Such a complex scenario with various solutions still on the table.

 

I recall the models for the Dec 4th/5th Blizzard doing the same thing days before the event cutting off the energy in the SW and eventually trending towards a better flow which the GFS is doing now.  Look at the last 8 runs and why I always believed this energy would not cut off as this season there is a much better flow that kicks the energy out of the SW.

 

 

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Just a huge change from the UK this morning.  Last run took a strong low up through central Iowa.  The new run has a strengthening low tracking from St. Louis to Toledo, with heavy defo zone precip from northern Missouri through Chicago to Lake Huron.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just a huge change from the UK this morning.  Last run took a strong low up through central Iowa.  The new run has a strengthening low tracking from St. Louis to Toledo, with heavy defo zone precip from northern Missouri through Chicago to Lake Huron.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php

Ya, that is a big change and something I'm not biting into at the moment but could be signaling the energy digging more so now that the -EPO is being better digested.  Now, if the Euro does something like this then it will be more encouraging to see.

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The UK holds all the energy back for one low tracking south of Chicago Friday.  The Euro ejects a weaker, less moist, low across southeast Iowa Thursday night, leaving the next piece of energy to simply enhance thunderstorms along the front.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro also showing a massive arctic outbreak in the wake of this storm. Wowzers.

Man, that just screams of a system riding along that thermal divide, especially with the extremes portrayed. You don't see that everyday. KBUF calls it a full lat phasing at 500 mb. Isn't that kinda what the March '93 Superstorm had?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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MPX showing some rare excitement:

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK...

 

There remains uncertainty in the forecast on the exact track of a

winter storm late next week, but confidence has increased enough

to warrant a headline in the extended period due to several

reasons.

 

First, both the GFS/EC have been consistent in the past two runs

on the upper level pattern for this week, and nearly the same for

a surface low developing across Colorado, and moving it northeast

across the plains, and into the western Great Lakes region. Only

the GEM has a slight southern track bias which leads to the

uncertain in the exact track.

 

Secondly, CIPS analogs for late this week (108 hrs) remained

favorable for accumulating snowfall across Minnesota, and northern

Wisconsin. Only subtle differences in the thermal profile and the

jet couplet are noted, but this is for the number one analog and

not necessarily the mean.

 

Thirdly, this winter storm is forming in the Rockies, and moving

out into the plains near Colorado/Texas/Oklahoma. This is a

classic scenario of a winter storm for the Upper Midwest. Only

differences are the track on the surface low, the amount of

moisture available, and upper level dynamics.

 

I don`t want to alarm those who are going to be traveling late

next week, but this scenario does support an eye on the weather

front. As always, uncertainties exist, so always check back for

the latest forecast

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Man, that just screams of a system riding along that thermal divide, especially with the extremes portrayed. You don't see that everyday. KBUF calls it a full lat phasing at 500 mb. Isn't that kinda what the March '93 Superstorm had?

It screams of a system getting suppressed by high pressure. But you never know I guess, maybe we can get something?

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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OAX still refuses to get rid of the "snow likely" wording in their forecast for here. Not sure what super secret models they're looking at but I want them.

Same here in the DMX area. 70% chance? 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It screams of a system getting suppressed by high pressure. But you never know I guess, maybe we can get something?

With that steep of an incline, what looks great here, would be too far east for IA, so we're both correct it would seem

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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