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What's Up With The Solar Activity Lately?


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#51
westiztehbest

Posted 29 April 2015 - 07:42 PM

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Sunspots back under 40.

 

Capture.jpg



#52
weatherfan2012

Posted 24 May 2015 - 12:18 PM

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the solar is going to be interisting to follow to see what happens as we get into 2016 and beowed just to see how steep the fall ends up being with cycle 24 after the weak max we had.now we will see and find out just how low this min will end up being.

#53
Chris

Posted 01 June 2015 - 07:05 AM

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Has anyone read this paper? I highly recommend it for anyone wanting to understand the solar/weather/climate connections. It's also very easy to understand:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.1812.pdf

 

Even I can follow most of that one.  Thanks for the link.



#54
weatherfan2012

Posted 10 July 2015 - 07:29 PM

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Robert Filex has a great artical on the up coming solar min http://iceagenow.inf...ing-on-ice-age/ Phil and geos will like this read.

#55
Chris

Posted 30 October 2015 - 07:07 AM

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White House releases plan to deal with space weather threat

 

http://www.usatoday....hreat/74815660/



#56
crf450ish

Posted 08 December 2015 - 12:51 PM

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Are we on the cusp of entering into a solar minimum?



#57
Chris

Posted 09 December 2015 - 09:56 AM

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Are we on the cusp of entering into a solar minimum?

 

That's what they're predicting.   We'll see...



#58
Andie

Posted 10 December 2015 - 01:55 PM

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White House releases plan to deal with space weather threat

http://www.usatoday....hreat/74815660/

My husband is in Federal Emergency Management for North Texas. He mostly deals with Huriricanes and very large wildfires, but one of the things that worry all the responders is that our power grid needs to be hardened for several reasons... Space weather, terrorism, and Emp's from weapons detonated overhead.
We are way behind on taking care of this. One can only hope they'll get it done in time. I know security has been undergoing a tightening, but the grid is still very vulnerable, especially on the big feeder lines that criss-cross the country from generation stations.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.

#59
weatherfan2012

Posted 12 February 2016 - 06:15 AM

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[quote name="Phil" post="76502" timestamp="1429416098"]While it'd be nice to see the cycle end soon for shorter term results in the high latitude circulations, a longer cycle would be more typical entering a grand minima, and would make predictions much easier.this was posted today about the current solar cycle 24 some still reading the comments are not convinced that solar plays into cooling and warming cycles even those the evendence says strongly other wise.[/quotehttp://wattsupwithth...arly-200-years/

#60
Chris

Posted 19 February 2016 - 09:48 AM

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For anyone interested in understanding the nature of solar forcing, and its expression through the Holocene as well as more recently, this is a must-read paper:

http://cc.oulu.fi/~u...2008-3Color.pdf

The worldwide agreement noted in the Beryllium-10 proxies, regarding the magnitude of the recent solar maximum, is astounding.

 

 

For those who prefer visual representations of the compiled studies, here's a summary. The exceptional nature of the modern maximum, at least geomegnetically, is quite mind boggling when looking at the data over the duration of the Holocene.

Reconstruction of HMF at Earth-orbit using the Berrylium-10 isotope fractal:

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

Full Carbon-14 based solar activity reconstruction through the Holocene:

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

Aggregate of first two (BE^10, C^14) at base integral, plus the modern GSN on a higher resolution:

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg



#61
snow_wizard

Posted 19 February 2016 - 10:50 PM

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[quote name="Phil" post="76502" timestamp="1429416098"]While it'd be nice to see the cycle end soon for shorter term results in the high latitude circulations, a longer cycle would be more typical entering a grand minima, and would make predictions much easier.this was posted today about the current solar cycle 24 some still reading the comments are not convinced that solar plays into cooling and warming cycles even those the evendence says strongly other wise.[/quotehttp://wattsupwithth...arly-200-years/

 

Some scientists are taking a way too simplistic view on how solar grand maxima and grand minima effect the temperatures on Earth.  The effect is fairly small on a total global average temperature scale, but the placement of anomaly centers is greatly altered.  Grand minima are thought to cause highly amplified ridges over the Oceans which makes the continents (which is where everyone lives) much colder in the winter.  I think some scientists are playing dumb because they want to imagine everything happening to the climate is man caused.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#62
snow_wizard

Posted 26 February 2016 - 10:54 PM

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The sun is very near spotless now.  Just two tiny spots and one is about to rotate off the edge.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#63
Black Hole

Posted 12 March 2016 - 04:08 PM

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Phil, or others, are there any new thoughts on the state of the sun at this point? Its been pretty consistently quiet for quite a while now with just a few decent spots forming here and there. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#64
weatherfan2012

Posted 25 March 2016 - 01:57 PM

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Robert Filex from iceagenow  has an interesting Artical on the Solar  http://iceagenow.inf...ty-well-normal/Robert stated he thinks it's going to be important to see how far and low the Declining Magnetic field Strength ends up being doing the next few solar cycles as its a key on our ice age cycles.



#65
snow_wizard

Posted 03 April 2016 - 09:31 AM

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The dramatic drop in solar activity over the past two week looks to continue with the sun going spotless in one or two days.  Looking at past records the current drop off (if it continues) will rate as one of the sharpest in this stage of the solar cycle on record.  Very interesting indeed!


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Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#66
weatherfan2012

Posted 26 April 2016 - 05:25 PM

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It will be interesting Robert filex and others do have interesting ideas only time will tell how it all plays out and how deep and low cycles 25 and 26 ultimately are.it will be a big test for both sides

#67
weatherfan2012

Posted 10 May 2016 - 05:28 PM

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Robert Filex posted a new update on the solar drop http://iceagenow.inf...ssive-downturn/

#68
Geos

Posted 13 May 2016 - 08:43 PM

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Robert Filex posted a new update on the solar drop http://iceagenow.inf...ssive-downturn/

 

Just saw this. That's a huge dip!

 

Going to be even lower by year's end.


Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

2016-2017 snowfall: 14.0"

Total moisture 2017: 17.44" 03/31

Elevation: 460 ft
 


#69
Black Hole

Posted 04 June 2016 - 11:20 AM

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The sun is finally blank again, zero sunspots the last 2 days. We are hopefully beginning a long period of very low solar activity at this point. This will be a crucial test to see what affects this can have on global temperature/climate. 


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#70
Geos

Posted 04 June 2016 - 09:33 PM

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The sun is finally blank again, zero sunspots the last 2 days. We are hopefully beginning a long period of very low solar activity at this point. This will be a crucial test to see what affects this can have on global temperature/climate. 

 

And today (5th) as well.

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/


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Univ. of WI Parkside Geosciences (environmental conc.), GIS - 2011

 

2016-2017 snowfall: 14.0"

Total moisture 2017: 17.44" 03/31

Elevation: 460 ft
 


#71
weatherfan2012

Posted 11 June 2016 - 10:44 AM

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saw this article http://www.vencorewe...ompletely-blankvery interesting.

#72
Tom

Posted 23 June 2016 - 07:36 PM

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The sun continues with its "Zzzzzz" sleep...yet another spotless day recorded over the last 3-4 weeks.  That makes 4 days this year without a sunspot.  Trending lower with time...

 

solar.png



#73
weatherfan2012

Posted 24 June 2016 - 11:39 AM

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http://iceagenow.inf...ain/#more-18391Robert Filex posted this today on his site blog.

#74
snow_wizard

Posted 25 June 2016 - 08:20 PM

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Pretty impressive how the solar acitvity is collapsing so quickly with solar min still 4 to 5 years out.  This is going to be a very long deep minimum it would appear.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#75
Tom

Posted 26 June 2016 - 07:58 AM

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4th day in a row the sun has zero sun spots...very interesting...wonder what implications this will create as we move forward towards the cold season.  CFSv2 has been gun hoe on intense Greenland Blocking along with a -AO.



#76
Black Hole

Posted 26 June 2016 - 11:16 AM

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Yep, pretty quiet right now. Should still see some active periods ahead but it's nice to see things really falling off now. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#77
snow_wizard

Posted 26 June 2016 - 08:58 PM

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Wow!  Four consecutive spotless days and the x-ray flux is still dropping.  That makes 8 spotless days in the past few weeks.  Very impressive for this stage of the game.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#78
Tom

Posted 30 June 2016 - 05:59 AM

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7 Days in a row and counting...no sunspot activity...

 

Here is the Sunspot Number Progression updated through May...

 

solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif



#79
snow_wizard

Posted 30 June 2016 - 04:42 PM

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This is an astounding run of inactivity for this early in the cycle.  Not only have there been no spots for a week, but the flux continues a slow downward trend.  The flux numbers at present are essentially unable to support spots.  This run could go many more days.  At this stage in the last cycle there were only occasional isolated spotless days here and there.  Already looking like a good shot at the deepest and longest minimum in 200 years.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#80
weatherfan2012

Posted 02 July 2016 - 12:42 PM

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Another Article that Robert Filex posted from iceagenow about the solar sun http://iceagenow.inf...seen-200-years/
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#81
snow_wizard

Posted 04 July 2016 - 09:09 AM

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Still spotless.  That makes over 10 consecutive days now.  This is looking like a BIG deal alright.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#82
Tom

Posted 04 July 2016 - 09:12 AM

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Still spotless. That makes over 10 consecutive days now. This is looking like a BIG deal alright.


Actually, it's at 11 days currently and NASA isn't expecting any flares today. I was not expecting to see this long of a stretch. It's rather interesting and we may be entering unchartered territory.

#83
Tom

Posted 06 July 2016 - 09:50 AM

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The streak of spotless days on the sun has been broken at 12 days as 2 small sunspots have been recorded today.  We shall see how much activity we see throughout the Summer and how this may effect our Fall/Winter season.



#84
Black Hole

Posted 22 July 2016 - 11:19 PM

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After about 2 weeks of activity we may be about to go spotless again as the big cluster of sunspots rotates around to the back side. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#85
Black Hole

Posted 26 July 2016 - 01:21 PM

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Yep, it is blank again. This seems unusual how many blank days we are suddenly seeing. Maybe the sun really is finally going to sleep. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#86
weatherfan2012

Posted 26 July 2016 - 06:59 PM

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It would be unusual to close out such a weak cycle this soon.it going to be interesting how this shapes up the next few years.

#87
Tom

Posted 27 July 2016 - 05:33 AM

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It is expected that the sun may be blank for a good 10+ day stretch.

 

 

 

It's worth noting that Solar Minimum isn't here yet. Indeed, only one half of the sun is blank. Sunspot complex AR2565-AR2567 still exists on the farside of the sun, and it could return ~12 days from now when the sun's rotation spins those dark coresback around in our direction. Until then, stay tuned for blank suns.


#88
crf450ish

Posted 24 October 2016 - 07:56 PM

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I believe THIS is noteworthy:

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 21 days (8%)  
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 25 Oct 2016

 

As per http://www.spaceweather.com

 

Now, I am not smart enough to make an educated guess on whether or not the 2016 spotless days has anything to do with the current stratosphere behavior. I can however speculate that the sunspots, or lack thereof, have something to do with it. Hmm...


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#89
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 October 2016 - 03:08 PM

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I believe THIS is noteworthy:

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 21 days (8%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 25 Oct 2016

As per http://www.spaceweather.com

Now, I am not smart enough to make an educated guess on whether or not the 2016 spotless days has anything to do with the current stratosphere behavior. I can however speculate that the sunspots, or lack thereof, have something to do with it. Hmm...


I'd be inclined to agree with you. That doesn't include the massive number of days with low spot numbers this year either.

#90
Black Hole

Posted 03 November 2016 - 07:58 AM

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Sun is blank today, but generally has been very quiet for some time with just 1-2 spots most days. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#91
Tom

Posted 11 December 2016 - 07:22 AM

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Today marks the first day in a while where the sun has gone blank.  Interestingly, solar activity might be reaching a new low over the last year...

 

solar.png



#92
crf450ish

Posted 18 December 2016 - 05:52 PM

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Anyone notice the recent increase in volcanic eruptions? Hmmm.
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#93
Andie

Posted 19 December 2016 - 06:17 PM

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Here's good site for eruptions.

https://www.wired.co...olcanoes-earth/
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes................. "TwcMan say's...I've got the brass...to ban...your a**." .... TWCMan, the Legend.

#94
Tom

Posted 30 December 2016 - 08:02 AM

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The sun has been blank 4x in the past week or so.  Seemingly, we are heading towards the next minimum at a quick pace.  Next year should be interesting to watch these trends in solar activity.



#95
Black Hole

Posted 30 December 2016 - 12:46 PM

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The sun has been blank 4x in the past week or so.  Seemingly, we are heading towards the next minimum at a quick pace.  Next year should be interesting to watch these trends in solar activity.

Spaceweather.com says there has been 32 blank days this year, and I would add a lot of single spot days too. Definitely just about there for the minimum. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#96
Tom

Posted 06 January 2017 - 06:40 AM

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Spaceweather.com says there has been 32 blank days this year, and I would add a lot of single spot days too. Definitely just about there for the minimum. 

2017 and the sun is asleep...Zzzzzz.....wonder what implications this will have for volcanic activity this year and for the following winter.  Haven't had true blocking overall this winter season, except during the Autumn when the AO tanked in October.


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#97
Black Hole

Posted 10 January 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Its been blank for 6 days in a row. and 8/10 for 2017 so far. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#98
Tom

Posted 10 January 2017 - 08:16 AM

Tom

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Its been blank for 6 days in a row. and 8/10 for 2017 so far. 

The stage is set for the Solar Minimum...dun dun dun...



#99
snow_wizard

Posted 16 January 2017 - 10:10 AM

snow_wizard

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I think this solar minimum is going to be very deep. Probably a lot deeper than the last one. We could easily still be 3 years from the bottom.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#100
weatherfan2012

Posted 16 January 2017 - 03:35 PM

weatherfan2012

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I think this solar minimum is going to be very deep. Probably a lot deeper than the last one. We could easily still be 3 years from the bottom.

while the sun spots have been weak the solar wind has been still on the reather high end side of things as solar winds tends to lag a few years after the max.I just wonder those once the solar wind weakens what kind of strong blocking we will see in a few years with the nao and Ao.