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What's Up With The Solar Activity Lately?


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#101
ClaireAnderson

Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:47 PM

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Scientists have now got access to the most detailed real-time images of the Sun with a new upgrade to the world's highest-resolution solar telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory.The new capabilities will allow the  researchers to study a wider view of solar activity as it's actually happening. With this upgrade now, we'll be able to watch things like massive sunspots stretching some 32,000 kilometers wide (about 20,000 miles) in the Sun's photo-sphere in real-time, whereas previously we could only see a narrower portion of the event without distortion.


Claire Anderson

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San Francisco, CA, USA

 


#102
Tom

Posted 13 February 2017 - 07:48 AM

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I found this Interesting chart comparison...thoughts???

 

C3mRsuJXUAUXldz.jpg



#103
weatherfan2012

Posted 13 February 2017 - 12:30 PM

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I found this Interesting chart comparison...thoughts???
 
C3mRsuJXUAUXldz.jpg

I think the next few cycles are going to be very interesting to follow and just as interesting in how deep they end up being.

#104
Andie

Posted 19 February 2017 - 11:28 AM

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What does the last century look like? 


Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#105
snow_wizard

Posted 24 February 2017 - 06:03 PM

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What does the last century look like?


Much of the 20th century featured a grand maximum with very high numbers of sunspots and strong solar winds. Very possible it was largely responsible for the warming seen the second half of the century.

An interesting side note to this is that global warming caused by the grand maximum (if it was caused by that) would also account for much of the atmospheric CO2 increase as warmer ocean temperatures released CO2 that was bound up in the sea water.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#106
Phil

Posted 24 February 2017 - 07:53 PM

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Much of the 20th century featured a grand maximum with very high numbers of sunspots and strong solar winds. Very possible it was largely responsible for the warming seen the second half of the century.

An interesting side note to this is that global warming caused by the grand maximum (if it was caused by that) would also account for much of the atmospheric CO2 increase as warmer ocean temperatures released CO2 that was bound up in the sea water.


Much of it could have been solar, but there must be something else at play here, because the warming from the 1690s to the 1940s was exceptional, more than can be explained by solar alone. Some research suggests it was greater than 1.5C.

There was clearly a monstrous shift in the global circulation(s) that began during the early 1700s, but as for what triggered it..who knows?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#107
weatherfan2012

Posted 25 February 2017 - 03:20 PM

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Much of it could have been solar, but there must be something else at play here, because the warming from the 1690s to the 1940s was exceptional, more than can be explained by solar alone. Some research suggests it was greater than 1.5C.
There was clearly a monstrous shift in the global circulation(s) that began during the early 1700s, but as for what triggered it..who knows?

Much of it could have been solar, but there must be something else at play here, because the warming from the 1690s to the 1940s was exceptional, more than can be explained by solar alone. Some research suggests it was greater than 1.5C.
There was clearly a monstrous shift in the global circulation(s) that began during the early 1700s, but as for what triggered it..who knows?

another one of many puzzles of climate that is still not peace togeather yet.

#108
snow_wizard

Posted 11 March 2017 - 12:08 AM

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Looks like we may have entered a really good spotless period this time. Flux numbers are very low....the lowest yet for this cycle.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#109
Tom

Posted 13 March 2017 - 06:27 AM

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Looks like we may have entered a really good spotless period this time. Flux numbers are very low....the lowest yet for this cycle.

On another note, how was your Winter out west???  We finally broke the 80+ day streak of 1" or less snowfall recorded during the Winter.  The last 1"+ snowfall we received was back on Dec 17th!



#110
snow_wizard

Posted 14 March 2017 - 11:15 PM

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On another note, how was your Winter out west???  We finally broke the 80+ day streak of 1" or less snowfall recorded during the Winter.  The last 1"+ snowfall we received was back on Dec 17th!


Very solid winter out here in spite of my area not doing too well for snow. It was the coldest winter at least since 1992-93 and many areas had significant snowfall. Extreme NW Washington and SW BC had very close to a top tier winter with many locations receiving 50+ inches of snow. Overall I'm quite intrigued by the persistent blocking we saw over Alaska.

I'm really looking forward to the next 5 years or so. Could be a wild ride!
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#111
Tom

Posted 15 March 2017 - 05:47 AM

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Very solid winter out here in spite of my area not doing too well for snow. It was the coldest winter at least since 1992-93 and many areas had significant snowfall. Extreme NW Washington and SW BC had very close to a top tier winter with many locations receiving 50+ inches of snow. Overall I'm quite intrigued by the persistent blocking we saw over Alaska.

I'm really looking forward to the next 5 years or so. Could be a wild ride!

Glad to hear!  I saw it coming when the cold pool was building in October in SW Canada.  Here's to the next solar minimum!



#112
snow_wizard

Posted 16 March 2017 - 09:29 PM

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Big time spotless period now. Well over a week and the flux numbers are still tanked.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#113
Black Hole

Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:52 AM

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Spaceweather.com shows 11 days in a row without any spots right now. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#114
snow_wizard

Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:46 PM

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I'm very intrigued seeing a streak this long so long before solar minimum.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#115
Tom

Posted 18 March 2017 - 06:05 AM

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From Spaceweather:

 

 

 

REALLY BLANK SUN: The sun has been blank (no sunspots) for 12 consecutive days.  If today ends without a sunspot, the number will increase to 13, matching the longest stretch of blank suns since April of 2010. This is yet another sign that the sunspot cycle is crashing toward a deep minimum expected in 2019-2020.


#116
Tom

Posted 20 March 2017 - 06:59 AM

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Sunspots reach a 7-year low!  Impressive 2 week stretch of a blank sun...it'll be interesting following the trends of the suns activity this year and what it may translate to the overall weather pattern.



#117
Andie

Posted 21 March 2017 - 04:40 AM

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Third weakest solar cycle since records began in 1755.

https://wattsupwitht...weeks-straight/

Graphs

https://wattsupwitht...still-slumping/

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#118
Tom

Posted 21 March 2017 - 05:55 AM

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Third weakest solar cycle since records began in 1755.

https://wattsupwitht...weeks-straight/

Graphs

https://wattsupwitht...still-slumping/

I'm curious to see how the level of neutron flux will impact the global climate as this author compared our current levels to Solar Cycle 20 which causing global cooling in the late 1970's. 

 

To see the deep waters of the Arctic oceans cooling is very interesting.  Great finds!



#119
Andie

Posted 21 March 2017 - 04:51 PM

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Much off the information on this site is over my head but I think many of you more scientific climate types will enjoy this.

Tons of information and they've been tracking information for 7 yrs.
The crazy thing is Landscheidt was a German astrologer and amateur climatologist. He predicted sunspot minima after 1990 with a stronger minimum and more intense cold peaking in 2030. He died in 2004. Enjoy a stroll through the pages.

I don't know if this is of use or not. Just found it interesting.

http://www.landscheidt.info

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#120
Tom

Posted 03 April 2017 - 06:22 AM

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Sheesh, talk about an active sun all of a sudden!  Haven't seen this in a very long time.

 

 

solar.png

 

 

 

 

hmi200.gif


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#121
Tom

Posted 12 May 2017 - 02:55 PM

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The sun has gone quiet again...

 

 

 

SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE PLUMMETING: Today marks the 33rd day in 2017 that the sun has been blank--no sunspots. This exceeds the total number of spotless days in all of 2016 (32). The accelerating pace of spotlessness is a sign that Solar Minimum is approaching. Forecasters expect the sunspot cycle, which swings like a pendulum between high and low sunspot number every ~11 years, to reach its nadir in 2019-2020. Stay tuned for more blank suns.


#122
Andie

Posted 13 May 2017 - 04:30 PM

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Cosmic rays are up.

http://spaceweather....th=05&year=2017

Attached File  IMG_2449.PNG   42.37KB   0 downloads

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#123
Tom

Posted 10 July 2017 - 06:15 AM

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The largest sunspot of the year...

 

http://www.spaceweat...giggt5e00dj4fb7



#124
Andie

Posted 20 July 2017 - 05:22 AM

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This was published in 2015, however it has some interesting things to say on long term cooling from a grand solar Minimum.

https://www.nature.c...cles/ncomms8535

However, the recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end1. Using past variations of solar activity measured by cosmogenic isotope abundance changes, analogue forecasts for possible future solar output have been calculated. An 8% chance of a return to Maunder Minimum-like conditions within the next 40 years was estimated in 2010 (ref. 2). The decline in solar activity has continued, to the time of writing, and is faster than any other such decline in the 9,300 years covered by the cosmogenic isotope data1. If this recent rate of decline is added to the analysis, the 8% probability estimate is now raised to between 15 and 20%.
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#125
Black Hole

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:19 PM

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Very quiet sun these days. It's been blank for 52% of the days this year so far.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#126
snow_wizard

Posted 03 March 2018 - 01:55 PM

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Very quiet sun these days. It's been blank for 52% of the days this year so far.

 

The flux numbers are really low now.  The x-ray flux has dropped below A0.0 and the 10.7 flux has dropped to 67.  We should still be at least a year from solar minimum so this will be a good one.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#127
Andie

Posted 09 March 2018 - 10:46 AM

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I'm reading more and more solar reports with long term cooling in the picture.
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#128
Andie

Posted 09 March 2018 - 04:07 PM

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Found this

“The radiation environment is worsening more rapidly than previously estimated. Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the Space Age.”

– Nathan Schwadron, Ph.D., Physicist, Univ. of New Hampshire
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#129
Tom

Posted 02 May 2018 - 03:38 AM

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Today's write-up on Spaceweather.com is probably one of the more interesting ones I've read over the past year or so.  You have to wonder why NASA is planning a mission to touch the sun this summer (Solar Probe Plus) https://www.nasa.gov...on-to-touch-sun.  It is my opinion, the gov't likely knows that the sun is going to be a big contributor in our climate for decades to come.

 

 

 

"Solar cycle 24 is declining more quickly than forecast," stated NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center on April 26th. This plot shows observed sunspot numbers in blue vs. the official forecast in red:

progression_strip.png

"The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April-May 2018 is about 15," says NOAA. "However, the actual monthly values have been lower."

"Official" forecasts of the solar cycle come from NOAA's Solar Cycle Prediction Panel–a group of experts from NOAA, NASA, the US Air Force, universities and other research organizations. They have been convening at intervals since 1989 to predict the timing and intensity of Solar Max. The problem is, no one really knows how to predict the solar cycle. The most recent iteration of the panel in 2006-2008 compared 54 different methods ranging from empirical extrapolations of historical data to cutting-edge supercomputer models of the sun's magnetic dynamo. None fully described what is happening now.

 

 

SUNSPOTS VANISHING FASTER THAN EXPECTED: continued...

 

 

It's important to note that solar minimum is a normal part of the sunspot cycle. Sunspots have been disappearing (or nearly so) every ~11 years since 1843 when German astronomer Samuel Heinrich Schwabe discovered the periodic nature of solar activity. Sometimes they go away for decades, as happened during the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century.  We've seen it all before. Or have we….?

 

 

sunspotcycle2_strip.png

 

Researchers are keeping a wary eye on the sun now because of what happened the last time sunspots disappeared. The solar minimum of 2008-2009 was unusually deep. The sun set Space Age records for low sunspot number, weak solar wind, and depressed solar irradiance. When the sun finally woke up a few years later, it seemed to have "solar minimum hangover." The bounce-back Solar Max of 2012-2015 was the weakest solar maximum of the Space Age, prompting some to wonder if solar activity is entering a  phase of sustained quiet. The faster-than-expected decline of the sunspot cycle now may support that idea.

 

Newcomers to the field are often surprised to learn that a lot happens during solar minimum: The sun dims, albeit slightly. NASA recently launched a new sensor (TSIS-1) to the International Space Station to monitor this effect. With less extreme UV radiation coming from the sun, Earth's upper atmosphere cools and shrinks. This allows space junk to accumulate in low Earth orbit.

neutrons_strip.pngAbove: A neutron bubble chamber in an airplane 35,000 feet above Greenland. Spaceweather.com and Earth to Sky Calculus are flying these sensors to measure aviation radiation during solar minimum. [more]

.

The most important change, however, could be the increase in cosmic rays. Flagging solar wind pressure during solar minimum allows cosmic rays from deep space to penetrate the inner solar system. Right now, space weather balloons and NASA spacecraft are measuring an uptick in radiation due to this effect. Cosmic rays may alter the chemistry of Earth's upper atmosphere, trigger lightning, and seed clouds.

 

Air travelers are affected, too. It is well known that cosmic rays penetrate airplanes. Passengers on long commercial flights receive doses similar to dental X-rays during a single trip, while pilots have been classified as occupational radiation workers by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Ongoing measurements by Spaceweather.com and Earth to Sky Calculus show that dose rates at cruising altitudes of 35,000 feet are currently ~40 times greater than on the ground below, values which could increase as the solar cycle wanes.

 

Solar minimum is just getting started. Stay tuned for updates.