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SoCal Storm Forecast Contest!

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#1
Eujunga

Posted 20 December 2017 - 09:46 AM

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Will it ever rain in Southern California?  Make your vote count!  The winner will receive an official "attaboy" as well as priceless forum bragging rights!

 

Edit:  Poll closed.  The 10 votes tallied are displayed below.  As of 1/1/18, there are a few showery periods in the offing, but nothing conclusive as far as a significant storm.

 

Screen_Shot_2018-01-01_at_4.15.24_PM.png


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#2
happ

Posted 20 December 2017 - 10:40 AM

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EC showed a wet storm for early January but not now. Subtropical ridge has an iron grip due to warm SST between Hawaii and California. My hunch is that a GOA low will penetrate SoCal sometime next month and maybe atmospheric river undercuts the ridge.  



#3
Phil

Posted 20 December 2017 - 11:34 AM

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EPAC Hadley Cell is fookin’ huge right now. What we’re seeing now, in that regard, is something that’s more typical for the month of May. 😂
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#4
Jesse

Posted 20 December 2017 - 12:37 PM

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EPAC Hadley Cell is fookin’ huge right now. What we’re seeing now, in that regard, is something that’s more typical for the month of May. 😂


Warming climate is the white elephant in the room.

#5
snow_wizard

Posted 20 December 2017 - 07:40 PM

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Warming climate is the white elephant in the room.

 

I don't think that has anything to do with this.  Besides you can make a strong case there will be a decent cooling over the next few years given the post super Nino and very low solar combo.

 

I'm going with Jan 16 to Jan 31.  Just a hunch given the current MJO forecasts and how that is likely to effect the weather patterns over the Western US.  I still think a NW Arctic blast with an undercutting AR is in the cards.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#6
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 21 December 2017 - 03:10 AM

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EPAC Hadley Cell is fookin’ huge right now. What we’re seeing now, in that regard, is something that’s more typical for the month of May.

 

I thought you had said earlier this year that the Hadley Cells were beginning to contract. Did the EPAC cell expand again over the last few months?



#7
Eujunga

Posted 21 December 2017 - 09:19 AM

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Guess I should record my own vote, which is for the first half of February.  I'll declare the contest closed on Jan. 1st, and then we'll see what happens.

 

Get your votes in, even if SoCal isn't in your backyard or area of interest.  The more the merrier!


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#8
happ

Posted 08 January 2018 - 10:56 AM

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I voted for 2nd half of Jan; glad I am wrong.



#9
BLI snowman

Posted 08 January 2018 - 11:17 AM

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I guessed January 1-15.

 

When in doubt go with climo.



#10
Jesse

Posted 08 January 2018 - 11:43 AM

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I thought you had said earlier this year that the Hadley Cells were beginning to contract. Did the EPAC cell expand again over the last few months?


Phil contradicts himself every few weeks on average.

#11
Deweydog

Posted 08 January 2018 - 11:45 AM

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Phil contradicts himself every few weeks on average.


You seemed to be hanging on his every word until about two weeks ago...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#12
Jesse

Posted 08 January 2018 - 11:47 AM

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You seemed to be hanging on his every word until about two weeks ago...


Perception is a funny thing.

#13
Deweydog

Posted 08 January 2018 - 12:25 PM

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Perception is a funny thing.


It's especially funny when it's based in reality.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#14
Jesse

Posted 08 January 2018 - 12:42 PM

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It's especially funny when it's based in reality.

 

And even funnier when it's not.

 

I've always had a healthy skepticism of Phil's predictions. Sure, I was interested in his thoughts for this month just like everyone else given his decent track record during the lead up, but I have never refrained from questioning him or calling him out. No different now than then.



#15
Eujunga

Posted 08 January 2018 - 12:50 PM

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Who are the other two votes for Jan. 1-15 besides Jesse?  Looking pretty likely for a win, but it ain't over til it's over.

 

Downtown storm total so far 0.05".


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#16
Phil

Posted 08 January 2018 - 01:50 PM

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Phil contradicts himself every few weeks on average.


I swear, sometimes you appear have the attention span of a gnat. The above example (Hadley Cell) is a perfect example of my statements being taken out of context since my statements in question were referring to two very different timescales. No contradictions.

It doesn’t seem to matter how many times I regurgitate the same sentence(s). I still have imaginary forecasts and/or statements attributed to me.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#17
Phil

Posted 08 January 2018 - 01:56 PM

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Who are the other two votes for Jan. 1-15 besides Jesse? Looking pretty likely for a win, but it ain't over til it's over.

Downtown storm total so far 0.05".


I voted Jan 1-15 as well. Indo MJO ftw.
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#18
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 08 January 2018 - 02:12 PM

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Who are the other two votes for Jan. 1-15 besides Jesse?  Looking pretty likely for a win, but it ain't over til it's over.

 

Downtown storm total so far 0.05".

 

I was one of those other two votes. With the rain falling today and the amounts forecast for tonight and tomorrow, January 1-15 appears to be the right call!



#19
Jesse

Posted 08 January 2018 - 03:32 PM

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I swear, sometimes you appear have the attention span of a gnat. The above example (Hadley Cell) is a perfect example of my statements being taken out of context since my statements in question were referring to two very different timescales. No contradictions.

It doesn’t seem to matter how many times I regurgitate the same sentence(s). I still have imaginary forecasts and/or statements attributed to me.


Meanie!!!
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#20
Phil

Posted 08 January 2018 - 05:39 PM

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Meanie!!!


😈
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#21
Eujunga

Posted 08 January 2018 - 06:02 PM

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Looks like a break in the action until the cold front arrives in the wee hours.  0.32" at Downtown LA so far, so if I had picked the 8th as an arbitrary cutoff date, it would likely be a no-go.

 

All models advertise well over 0.50" in the 12 hour period between midnight and noon tomorrow, however.


  • Phil and happ like this

Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#22
Eujunga

Posted 09 January 2018 - 07:40 AM

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As of 7 a.m., the contest still lives!  After much hype and ballyhoo, this morning's round of cold-front showers has left a paltry 0.41" in the last 12 hours at Downtown LA.  Although the storm total is 0.66", there has not been any 12-hour period in which the total exceeded 0.50".

 

Radar shows the latest band of showers clearing out from the southwest, with nothing more incoming.  So unless a convective shower pops up soon enough today to bring a 12-hour period to over 0.50", the game will still be on.  Like I said, it ain't over til it's over.

 

Given the latest model projections, it could be a long time indeed before the next chance for anyone to win!

 

Will be watching the Downtown conditions intently...


  • happ likes this

Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#23
Eujunga

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:07 AM

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Update — Downtown has received just enough rain in the last couple of hours to put it over 0.50” for the 12-hour period.

Congratulations, Jesse, Phil, and Dan! Your swag bag is in the works.
  • Dan the Weatherman and happ like this

Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#24
Eujunga

Posted 09 January 2018 - 02:29 PM

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Just to add that of course, with all the mayhem and destruction and even tragic deaths in Montecito, this has to be considered a “significant storm” no matter what the rain totals might be in Downtown L.A.

Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.