Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Christmas Holiday Snow Event

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:23 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Say it ain't...Snow!  Is Nature about to deliver a Christmas Miracle for us snow enthusiasts???  Yes!  Now, who will have a White Christmas???  Is there another late Christmas day snow system that will traverse our sub forum???   The table has turned and one that is finally favorable for some of us on here to see the flakes fly during the Christmas holiday.

 

 

Latest 12z NAM suite...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

 

 

 

Finally, the 00z Euro...fluff these totals up a bit more...

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_114.png

 

ecmwf_t_precip_mw_114.png

 



#2
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:26 AM

Snowlover76

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1117 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
Euro is least ideal here

#3
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:33 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Euro is least ideal here

How do you figure?

#4
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:34 AM

LNK_Weather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1535 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

How do you figure?


Think Lincoln has a good shot at 3-4".

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#5
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

Snowlover76

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1117 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

How do you figure?


Least amount of snow

#6
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Southern NE looking real good on the GFS.  I just hope this hits the I80 corridor in Iowa.  



#7
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z GFS likes OMA/LNK on Christmas eve....



#8
Madtown

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

Madtown

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 920 posts
....i heard for a whole month clippers don't hit Never? How can this be???😁Enjoy everyone!

#9
Money

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7186 posts

Least amount of snow


I thought NE didn’t get snow
  • jaster220 likes this

#10
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:42 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Early on, 12z GFS looks like it may be phasing a bit better and a touch NW...



#11
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:43 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Nice run on going from the GFS...low end advisory snows for S NE/S IA/N MO into IL/IN...



#12
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:44 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Sweet, GFS took a nice shift north for my area.  Might only be an inch, but there's hope!



#13
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:47 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Seems to me like the GFS is finally catching up to the other models for this clipper.

#14
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:48 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

At 500mb, you can see the differences as the storm takes on more of a neg tilt as it swings through the MW...



#15
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:49 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Considering the GFS was always further south than the Euro and CMC i am very happy with this.  It's possible it shifts even slightly further north just yet.  I just want an inch, and I'd be happy.  2" and then I'll throw a party.  


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#16
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:50 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

The CMC is just riding directly along 80 in Iowa. 

 

 

611_100.gif



#17
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:51 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

1.1" on the GFS for me! :) ha ha. I'd take it. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#18
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:53 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
I hate just being on the outside looking in. Maybe it shifts north a bit yet.

#19
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:56 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The trends in the models showing a better developed wave is a positive thus far.  I'd like to see what the Ukie/Euro show later today if this indeed is a trend among the models.



#20
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:57 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z GGEM also agreeing with the GFS on track and intensity...

 

gem_apcpn_ncus_12.png


  • NebraskaWX likes this

#21
NebraskaWX

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:59 AM

NebraskaWX

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 887 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

Lincoln looks ideal on each model right now. I'll be in Minnesota though, so ya know, fml. Hope we get leveled either way!


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#22
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:02 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Lincoln looks ideal on each model right now. I'll be in Minnesota though, so ya know, fml. Hope we get leveled either way!

Happy B day!  Hey, at least when you come back home there looks to be some snow OTG...hopefully!


  • NebraskaWX likes this

#23
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:06 AM

LNK_Weather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1535 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Happy B day! Hey, at least when you come back home there looks to be some snow OTG...hopefully!


I don't see it going anywhere till at least the January thaw. It's about time Lincoln got snow that's able to stick around! I'm in California so I'm a little bummed but I have snow cover and an active pattern to look forward to when I get back.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#24
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:15 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Looks like the 12z GFS with a much weaker wave mid/late next week. Comes from the NW instead of the south.

#25
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:15 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

GFS with a vigorous looking clipper on the 28th as well.  



#26
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:16 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

GFS next week Wed night/Thursday system.

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png



#27
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:22 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Large piece of energy coming onshore after the clipper too.

#28
gosaints

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:27 AM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3866 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

The run to run variability is entertaining is the medium to long range..



#29
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:29 AM

St Paul Storm

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 837 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

The run to run variability is entertaining is the medium to long range..


Makes me question why I even spend time looking at model runs outside of 84 hours. Really.
  • jaster220 likes this

#30
gosaints

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:31 AM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3866 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

Makes me question why I even spend time looking at model runs outside of 84 hours. Really.

They are not even close to the same page.  Wait 6 hours and you might see something you like



#31
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:33 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
How does the Ukie look?

#32
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:36 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

UK comes out usually right at 10:40.  I'll keep hitting F5.  



#33
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:47 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

UK stayed further north and stronger.

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif


  • Tom, jaster220 and bainbridgekid like this

#34
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:50 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

UK stayed further north and stronger.

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

Is that further north from it's 00z run?

#35
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:57 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

UK stayed further north and stronger.

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif


Nice! I’ll take 1-2” all day...maybe if your lucky and some good banding develops and squeeze 3”.

#36
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:59 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3603 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Yeah these type of waves tend to over perform often. Someone will get a nice event out of this.

#37
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:08 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Is that further north from it's 00z run?

 

Looks similar to 00z, i meant further north than the GFS sorry.  


  • james1976 likes this

#38
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:12 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Ukie total precip

 

PA_000-072_0000.gif


  • Tom likes this

#39
Madtown

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:21 AM

Madtown

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 920 posts
ukie.... i even get snow?

#40
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:32 AM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1035 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Well, Accuweather going all out for this clipper in my area!  :lol:

 

 

Attached Files


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#41
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_72.png



#42
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:54 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3942 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

So, we get this Clipper wave to amp up, but at the expense of next week's BD. Hmm..while I love snow for Christmas, not sure I like the trade-off tbh. Anyways, great to have something most on here (esp Neb peeps) can get excited for just in time for Santa. Man, what a hole tho for N IA and Wisco/S MN peeps..hope some of you at least have a covering OTG? 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#43
Bryan1117

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:54 AM

Bryan1117

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 62 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE
Hoping the Euro is right on this system, that would dump a solid 2-4” of snow right over the Omaha metro. The NAM still showing this system mainly to our southwest, however I am liking the trends of this being a little farther north and stronger.

All I really want is at least an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, that’s what my kids want... hopefully Mother Nature can deliver this weekend!
  • jaster220 likes this

#44
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:55 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3942 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Ukie has the most qpf over SMI. I don't think we're getting anything from the Sat wave, so that's contamination imho.. :rolleyes:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#45
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:08 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
12z Euro even father north and stronger...hits NE/C IA/N IL pretty good...
  • jaster220 likes this

#46
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:12 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1298 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Euro puts the heaviest band over I80 in Iowa.

 

 

ecmwf_t_precip_iowa_54.png


  • Grizzcoat likes this

#47
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:14 AM

Snowlover76

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1117 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

ugly.  But not surprised

 

 

 

we just cant catch a break here  



#48
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:14 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 14991 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature.
  • bainbridgekid likes this

#49
Grizzcoat

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:15 AM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1023 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

DSM-- EURO raw #'s.  looks like 20:1 ratios?

 

SUN 06Z 24-DEC  -5.1   -10.9    1027      58     100    0.03     544     523   
SUN 12Z 24-DEC  -7.0   -13.5    1026      84      99    0.16     536     516   
SUN 18Z 24-DEC  -5.1   -13.9    1026      68      40    0.03     530     509


  • Tom likes this

#50
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:19 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3942 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature.

 

Nice. Guess we're no longer left guessing which wave the atmosphere waants to amplify. This was like a spinning roulette wheel OMG..

 

Current state of Snow (cover) as of this early am

 

Attached File  nsm_depth_2017122205_National.jpg   79.16KB   0 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."