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Christmas Holiday Snow Event

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#1
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:23 AM

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Say it ain't...Snow!  Is Nature about to deliver a Christmas Miracle for us snow enthusiasts???  Yes!  Now, who will have a White Christmas???  Is there another late Christmas day snow system that will traverse our sub forum???   The table has turned and one that is finally favorable for some of us on here to see the flakes fly during the Christmas holiday.

 

 

Latest 12z NAM suite...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

 

 

 

Finally, the 00z Euro...fluff these totals up a bit more...

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_114.png

 

ecmwf_t_precip_mw_114.png

 



#2
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:26 AM

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Euro is least ideal here

#3
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:33 AM

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Euro is least ideal here

How do you figure?

#4
TOL_Weather

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:34 AM

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How do you figure?


Think Lincoln has a good shot at 3-4".

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#5
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

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How do you figure?


Least amount of snow

#6
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

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Southern NE looking real good on the GFS.  I just hope this hits the I80 corridor in Iowa.  


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#7
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

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12z GFS likes OMA/LNK on Christmas eve....



#8
Madtown

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

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....i heard for a whole month clippers don't hit Never? How can this be???😁Enjoy everyone!

#9
Money

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

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Least amount of snow


I thought NE didn’t get snow
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#10
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:42 AM

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Early on, 12z GFS looks like it may be phasing a bit better and a touch NW...



#11
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:43 AM

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Nice run on going from the GFS...low end advisory snows for S NE/S IA/N MO into IL/IN...



#12
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:44 AM

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Sweet, GFS took a nice shift north for my area.  Might only be an inch, but there's hope!


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#13
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:47 AM

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Seems to me like the GFS is finally catching up to the other models for this clipper.

#14
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:48 AM

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At 500mb, you can see the differences as the storm takes on more of a neg tilt as it swings through the MW...



#15
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:49 AM

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Considering the GFS was always further south than the Euro and CMC i am very happy with this.  It's possible it shifts even slightly further north just yet.  I just want an inch, and I'd be happy.  2" and then I'll throw a party.  


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Season Snowfall 23.2"


#16
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:50 AM

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The CMC is just riding directly along 80 in Iowa. 

 

 

611_100.gif


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#17
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:51 AM

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1.1" on the GFS for me! :) ha ha. I'd take it. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#18
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:53 AM

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I hate just being on the outside looking in. Maybe it shifts north a bit yet.

#19
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:56 AM

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The trends in the models showing a better developed wave is a positive thus far.  I'd like to see what the Ukie/Euro show later today if this indeed is a trend among the models.



#20
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:57 AM

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12z GGEM also agreeing with the GFS on track and intensity...

 

gem_apcpn_ncus_12.png


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#21
Jaycee

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:59 AM

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Lincoln looks ideal on each model right now. I'll be in Minnesota though, so ya know, fml. Hope we get leveled either way!



#22
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:02 AM

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Lincoln looks ideal on each model right now. I'll be in Minnesota though, so ya know, fml. Hope we get leveled either way!

Happy B day!  Hey, at least when you come back home there looks to be some snow OTG...hopefully!


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#23
TOL_Weather

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:06 AM

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Happy B day! Hey, at least when you come back home there looks to be some snow OTG...hopefully!


I don't see it going anywhere till at least the January thaw. It's about time Lincoln got snow that's able to stick around! I'm in California so I'm a little bummed but I have snow cover and an active pattern to look forward to when I get back.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#24
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:15 AM

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Looks like the 12z GFS with a much weaker wave mid/late next week. Comes from the NW instead of the south.

#25
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:15 AM

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GFS with a vigorous looking clipper on the 28th as well.  


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#26
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:16 AM

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GFS next week Wed night/Thursday system.

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#27
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:22 AM

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Large piece of energy coming onshore after the clipper too.

#28
gosaints

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:27 AM

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The run to run variability is entertaining is the medium to long range..



#29
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:29 AM

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The run to run variability is entertaining is the medium to long range..


Makes me question why I even spend time looking at model runs outside of 84 hours. Really.
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#30
gosaints

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:31 AM

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Makes me question why I even spend time looking at model runs outside of 84 hours. Really.

They are not even close to the same page.  Wait 6 hours and you might see something you like



#31
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:33 AM

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How does the Ukie look?

#32
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:36 AM

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UK comes out usually right at 10:40.  I'll keep hitting F5.  


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#33
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:47 AM

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UK stayed further north and stronger.

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif


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Season Snowfall 23.2"


#34
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:50 AM

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UK stayed further north and stronger.

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

Is that further north from it's 00z run?

#35
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:57 AM

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UK stayed further north and stronger.

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif


Nice! I’ll take 1-2” all day...maybe if your lucky and some good banding develops and squeeze 3”.

#36
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:59 AM

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Yeah these type of waves tend to over perform often. Someone will get a nice event out of this.

#37
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:08 AM

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Is that further north from it's 00z run?

 

Looks similar to 00z, i meant further north than the GFS sorry.  


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Season Snowfall 23.2"


#38
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:12 AM

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Ukie total precip

 

PA_000-072_0000.gif


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Season Snowfall 23.2"


#39
Madtown

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:21 AM

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ukie.... i even get snow?

#40
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:32 AM

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Well, Accuweather going all out for this clipper in my area!  :lol:

 

 

Attached Files


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#41
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

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ukmet_acc_precip_conus_72.png


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#42
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:54 AM

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So, we get this Clipper wave to amp up, but at the expense of next week's BD. Hmm..while I love snow for Christmas, not sure I like the trade-off tbh. Anyways, great to have something most on here (esp Neb peeps) can get excited for just in time for Santa. Man, what a hole tho for N IA and Wisco/S MN peeps..hope some of you at least have a covering OTG? 


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#43
Bryan1117

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:54 AM

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Hoping the Euro is right on this system, that would dump a solid 2-4” of snow right over the Omaha metro. The NAM still showing this system mainly to our southwest, however I am liking the trends of this being a little farther north and stronger.

All I really want is at least an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, that’s what my kids want... hopefully Mother Nature can deliver this weekend!
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#44
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:55 AM

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Ukie has the most qpf over SMI. I don't think we're getting anything from the Sat wave, so that's contamination imho.. :rolleyes:


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#45
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:08 AM

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12z Euro even father north and stronger...hits NE/C IA/N IL pretty good...
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#46
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:12 AM

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Euro puts the heaviest band over I80 in Iowa.

 

 

ecmwf_t_precip_iowa_54.png


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Season Snowfall 23.2"


#47
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:14 AM

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ugly.  But not surprised

 

 

 

we just cant catch a break here  



#48
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:14 AM

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12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature.
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#49
Grizzcoat

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:15 AM

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DSM-- EURO raw #'s.  looks like 20:1 ratios?

 

SUN 06Z 24-DEC  -5.1   -10.9    1027      58     100    0.03     544     523   
SUN 12Z 24-DEC  -7.0   -13.5    1026      84      99    0.16     536     516   
SUN 18Z 24-DEC  -5.1   -13.9    1026      68      40    0.03     530     509


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#50
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:19 AM

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12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature.

 

Nice. Guess we're no longer left guessing which wave the atmosphere waants to amplify. This was like a spinning roulette wheel OMG..

 

Current state of Snow (cover) as of this early am

 

Attached File  nsm_depth_2017122205_National.jpg   79.16KB   0 downloads


Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967