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Christmas Holiday Snow Event

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#101
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:48 PM

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Gfs further north than NAM but slightly south from earlier runs today.

#102
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:06 PM

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
958 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017


NEZ048-049-060>064-072>077-231200-
/O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0009.171223T2100Z-171224T1200Z/
Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-
Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Central City, Stromsburg, Osceola,
Shelby, Polk, Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg,
Kearney, Grand Island, Aurora, York, Elwood, Johnson Lake,
Holdrege, Minden, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar,
Fairfield, Geneva, Exeter, and Fairmont
958 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. This could
cause hazardous travel conditions, especially along Interstate
80.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central
Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

 

Hope this pans out.......just give me 2" and I'll be happy. 


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#103
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 08:49 PM

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UK continues to be further north in Iowa.
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#104
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:03 PM

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I think this is the GEM?? Never can remember what the GDPS model is...Regardless looking like the NAM and GFS. If the EURO holds serve I should be good for a white x-mas! 

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#105
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:06 PM

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The GEM was replaced by the GDPS but it’s just the Canadian model either way. That’s why you see some call it the GEM still. Or CMC sometimes as well but it’s all referring to the GDPS
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#106
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:15 PM

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The GEM was replaced by the GDPS but it’s just the Canadian model either way. That’s why you see some call it the GEM still. Or CMC sometimes as well but it’s all referring to the GDPS

Thanks for clarifying! Meanwhile, Hastings has upgraded the snowfall forecast. Looks to me like it's how lucky you are with your totals...riding that thin line! 

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#107
Hawkeye

Posted 22 December 2017 - 09:20 PM

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The GEM was replaced by the GDPS but it’s just the Canadian model either way. That’s why you see some call it the GEM still. Or CMC sometimes as well but it’s all referring to the GDPS

 

I had no idea they changed it.


season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#108
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:04 PM

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Euro shifted south.

#109
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:28 PM

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I'm sure OAX is all over this

#110
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 22 December 2017 - 11:44 PM

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This system will provide the thinest heavy snow band ever lol. RAP already has almost an inch with the first part of the system by 18z today.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#111
james1976

Posted 23 December 2017 - 12:18 AM

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Snow breaking out in SD & NE now...

#112
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 23 December 2017 - 12:22 AM

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Ah just wonderful. NAM keeps edging south again. What the hell is going on here lol. Building my dreams up to only burn them down on the day of. Lets now cast this s**t.


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#113
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 23 December 2017 - 02:08 AM

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Meanwhile gfs came north a tad, gives omaha 3 inches and 3 to 5 bellevue south

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#114
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 03:24 AM

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06z NAM's....both suggesting a pretty good snow event for those snow starved who have not been hit in the past 3 years it seems....been a while since we have had a decent clipper type system hit a large part of the sub forum.  The heavier banding look across S NE/C IL looks interesting.  Might have some pretty good returns setting up just south of Chi.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png



#115
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 03:26 AM

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A stripe of WWA's hoisted overnight across the Plains/MW/OV...Finally, we could say there is a welcomed surprise snow event for the Christmas Holiday.  I know peeps down in C IL have been itching for a snow system to hit their region.  Been a few years at least.

 

Anyhow, I'm glad to see the colder temps today to allow to refreeze the ground after a warm week of weather.  I'm not looking for more than 1.5" around here.  I'll take it though.

 

 

Tab2FileL.png

 

 

 

 

ChristmasEveSnow.png



#116
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 04:00 AM

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RPM spitting out 2" for ORD, Euro 3.5" while the GFS showing a little over an inch....Santa, please give me enough to at least cover the grass!  Thanks in advance....


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#117
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 04:03 AM

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I really hope I get an inch out of this. It seems like I’m always on that cutoff line. Overnight trends were not favorable for me.

#118
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 04:16 AM

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The Euro took a huge shift south with the heaviest qpf in Iowa. Went from I80 on 12z to IA-MO border on 00z.

#119
Clinton

Posted 23 December 2017 - 05:25 AM

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The south trends are helping me, looks like my best chance of a white Christmas since 2009.


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#120
NEJeremy

Posted 23 December 2017 - 05:55 AM

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For some reason our WFO couldn’t even be bothered to put in the text how much snow we’re supposed to get for our WWA. Isn’t that standard? I know it’s 1-3 for here based on the grids, but I don’t recall ever seeing a winter storm warning and then in the wording the NWS not saying how much snow/ice they’re expecting🤔

#121
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:01 AM

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12z NAM looks like its coming in a bit north and hits S IA better....doesn't look better for LNK....



#122
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:03 AM

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Yes! NAM took a jog north! :) clinging to every model run over here...
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#123
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:04 AM

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The NAM also sped up dramatically from previous runs. A good six hours faster on the snow arrival in E Iowa.

#124
earthandturf

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:06 AM

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Something to plow would be a nice Christmas present!


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#125
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:07 AM

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Seems to be trending towards the Euro...a bit better organized at 500mb which has been a trend...actually, LNK does alright but trended towards the southern edge of the 3" cut off...



#126
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:09 AM

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12z NAM is creeping the 3" line close to Chicago...nice trends over here...looks like 2-3" for ORD which is better than what the 00z/06z runs showed earlier...


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#127
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:13 AM

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I’m gonna blindly believe the NAM here. Not gonna look at any other models...

#128
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:17 AM

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12z NAM...if models trend better after today's 12z suite, LOT may shift the WWA's a county or two north...I'm glad to see this slight bump north...


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#129
Niko

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:17 AM

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Currently getting some snow from the southern system. Just clipping SEMI. Everything white outside. Temp @ 32F.


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#130
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:24 AM

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.16” qpf on the NAM for Iowa City. Showing 2.7” total snow

#131
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:26 AM

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3K NAM is about 30 miles south of the regular nam. Still about 2” for Iowa City, which I would take in a heartbeat

#132
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:26 AM

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High Rez 12z NAM following trends as well....interesting Lehs feature showing up for NW IN....IndianaJohn/Hoosier may cash in...tough to forecast though...

 

 

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_30.png



#133
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:27 AM

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HRRR is agreeing with what the 12z NAM suite...

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png

 

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png



#134
Grizzcoat

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:39 AM

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Attached File  snku_acc.us_mw.png   340.24KB   0 downloads


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#135
Niko

Posted 23 December 2017 - 06:42 AM

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Perhaps WWA's will be posted later this afternoon or early tomorrow morning w this potent clipper on Sunday and into early Monday.



#136
Snowlover76

Posted 23 December 2017 - 07:37 AM

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Gee right on the edge here

#137
Money

Posted 23 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

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Go north!
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#138
gabel23

Posted 23 December 2017 - 07:50 AM

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Snow has started a little earlier than projected last night! Flakes are getting bigger, earlier this morning they were small as small can be! We might sneak out 4" from this, I'm liking the trends!! 



#139
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 07:51 AM

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Snow has started a little earlier than projected last night! Flakes are getting bigger, earlier this morning they were small as small can be! We might sneak out 4" from this, I'm liking the trends!

Happy be-lated B Day gift from mother nature...


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#140
Snowlover76

Posted 23 December 2017 - 07:53 AM

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Go north!


No!

#141
gabel23

Posted 23 December 2017 - 07:54 AM

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I love the new addition this year in Hastings; they give the probabilities of snow for the CWA. Late to the party as a lot of places already do this but it's pretty cool! 

 

 

 Shelby, NE 2 3 3 100% 98% 81% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

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#142
gabel23

Posted 23 December 2017 - 07:56 AM

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Happy be-lated B Day gift from mother nature...

No kidding Tom!! Hopefully this thing surprises and gives us all a white christmas! 


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#143
NebraskaWX

Posted 23 December 2017 - 08:09 AM

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HRRR looks good for LNK. Think somebody will score 6” out of this somewhere :)
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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#144
gabel23

Posted 23 December 2017 - 08:12 AM

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HRRR looks good for LNK. Think somebody will score 6” out of this somewhere :)

I think you guys in Lincoln stand a great chance of seeing 3-6". These type of set-ups tend to favor your region. I think anyone between the Platte river and the I-80 corridor in Eastern Nebraska should average 3-4". Cheers to a white x-mas! 


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#145
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 08:32 AM

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Canadian give i80 corridor 1-1.5” in Iowa. I’ll be happy with that. Just glad that it’s looking like I won’t get shut out entirely

#146
Tom

Posted 23 December 2017 - 09:37 AM

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12z Ukie is the wettest thus far today...let’s see what the Euro shows.

#147
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 23 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

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Rap model has over 3 inches...sounds good to me!

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#148
Hawkeye

Posted 23 December 2017 - 10:08 AM

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12z euro... yesterday's 12z, which had the peak snow band down I-80, was a one-run wonder.  It appears I may get my first measurable snowfall of the season, but that's all.

 

ecmwf_t_precip_mw_48.png

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.png


season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#149
midwest buildit

Posted 23 December 2017 - 11:02 AM

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Something to plow would be a nice Christmas present!


Would love for that to happen also.

#150
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2017 - 11:03 AM

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I said all along I’d be happy with 1”. Even though I’m just going to miss out on heavier snow , I would be satisfied with 1”.