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12/28 - 12/29 Plains/MW/GL's Snow Event


Tom

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Well, Winter wx continues to roll on as another disturbance is expected to lay down another swath of snow.  There is still some uncertainty but the GFS has shown plenty of consistency and it's ensembles agree.  Who's ready for another plow-able snow???

 

12z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017122512/132/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

12z GGEM is showing it also but a little different scenario...

 

gem_asnow_ncus_21.png

 

 

 

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Euro has another wave sneak into the MW on Friday....

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/conus/ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_102.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/conus/ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_108.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/conus/ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_114.png

 

 

 

Total qpf from the Thu/Fri event...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/mw/ecmwf_t_precip_mw_114.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_114.png

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Max ratios very rarely pan out though.

Ain’t that the truth? Gosh, I can’t even describe how many times I was told ratios would be high and to expect more than the forecast maps were showing, only for them to be something like 8:1 when all is said and done. Ratios are tricky.

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This from NOAA:

 

Long range guidance is coming into better agreement
handling the arrival of a surge of northern stream PV energy
Thursday night into Friday, which may spawn
another clipper system
similar to the one that occurred on Christmas Eve,
with this system
being the next chance for widespread accumulating snowfall. It is
still too early to tell potential amounts, but will need to keep
monitoring this system over the coming days as the synoptic setup
looks to be quite favorable with a negatively-tilted shortwave
trough swinging through. Behind this system heading into the New
Years holiday weekend, lake effect regime will once again setup with
strong high pressure diving south into the northern Plains.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yep, I need it to go stronger and get amped just a bit earlier than yesterday's..should be fun, and I have a good feeling about this next one.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DMX saying 1-3” area wide. Models still mostly at odds on placement. GFS maintains a much larger area of moderate snow from southern Iowa all the way north of the twin cities. All other models have lighter snow south and the heaviest bands in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Both the GFS and Euro have been consistent run to run and now within 48 hours of the event and we still have a pretty decent discrepancy

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Might have to start another thread for the stronger wave on the Fri/Sat period.  Will wait another day and see how models trend today on the second wave.

 

Meantime, here is LOT's thinking for Thursday's light snow...

 

 

 

There will be a wave
in the morning, but it is not clear if this will impact the entire
area or focus along the Wisconsin border north. There is not much
moisture return also. In spite of these differences, there is a
decent signal for at least a period of light snow, or several
periods Thursday into Thursday night. The dendritic growth region is
deep and on most guidance at least partially supersaturated such
that a period of fluffy snow (15-20:1 type snow) is expected, in
spite of omega still focused at colder than optimal snow
production values. HPC has a 1- 2" stripe south and 2-4" stripe
north, which while most certainly plausible given the GEFS
ensemble range of QPF is 0.07" to 0.25" (mean of 0.15") for ORD,
but the GFS is the most aggressive in terms of QPF, and we may
just get grazed with the snow per the NAM/EC/GEM/SREF, so will
play it a bit more conservative this far out.
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