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12/28 - 12/29 Plains/MW/GL's Snow Event

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#1
Tom

Posted 25 December 2017 - 08:32 AM

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Well, Winter wx continues to roll on as another disturbance is expected to lay down another swath of snow.  There is still some uncertainty but the GFS has shown plenty of consistency and it's ensembles agree.  Who's ready for another plow-able snow???

 

12z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

12z GGEM is showing it also but a little different scenario...

 

gem_asnow_ncus_21.png

 

 

 


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#2
james1976

Posted 25 December 2017 - 08:40 AM

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Hard to ignore GFS consistency. Would like to see Euro agree with it though.



#3
bud2380

Posted 25 December 2017 - 08:58 AM

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UK seems to be similar to GFS for wed/thu system. Maybe a little less qpf but precip shield looks similar

#4
dubuque473

Posted 25 December 2017 - 09:04 AM

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Got to work this morning and someone was mentioning this. Hope we get a decent amount...
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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#5
Tom

Posted 25 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

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12z GEFS...pretty good agreement on the placement of the expected snows...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png


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#6
bud2380

Posted 25 December 2017 - 10:18 AM

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Euro is still pretty weak. A little further north and east with heavier placement from GFS as wel

#7
Tom

Posted 25 December 2017 - 10:20 AM

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12z Euro...

 

ecmwf_t_precip_mw_96.png

 

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_96.png



#8
Tom

Posted 25 December 2017 - 10:21 AM

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12z Euro has the snow falling with temps in the mid teens...I have no doubt snow ratios will at the min be roughly 15:1...all depends on the moisture to deliver...



#9
BrianJK

Posted 25 December 2017 - 10:22 AM

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Might have to gas up my broom again
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#10
Tom

Posted 25 December 2017 - 10:26 AM

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Euro has another wave sneak into the MW on Friday....

 

ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_102.png

 

ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_108.png

 

ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_114.png

 

 

 

Total qpf from the Thu/Fri event...

 

ecmwf_t_precip_mw_114.png

 

 

ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_114.png


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#11
Iowawx

Posted 25 December 2017 - 10:39 AM

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So has the Thursday storm faded away?



#12
Tom

Posted 25 December 2017 - 10:49 AM

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So has the Thursday storm faded away?

No, there is just disagreement on the timing among the models and how it develops...



#13
james1976

Posted 25 December 2017 - 10:53 AM

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12z Euro has the snow falling with temps in the mid teens...I have no doubt snow ratios will at the min be roughly 15:1...all depends on the moisture to deliver...

DMX said 20-25:1

#14
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 25 December 2017 - 11:38 AM

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DMX said 20-25:1


Max ratios very rarely pan out though.

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.2"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 1.4")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#15
gosaints

Posted 25 December 2017 - 11:52 AM

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Max ratios very rarely pan out though.


This

#16
NebraskaWX

Posted 25 December 2017 - 12:15 PM

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Max ratios very rarely pan out though.


Ain’t that the truth? Gosh, I can’t even describe how many times I was told ratios would be high and to expect more than the forecast maps were showing, only for them to be something like 8:1 when all is said and done. Ratios are tricky.

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#17
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 December 2017 - 12:46 PM

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Most of the GFS ensembles show a good hit here in eastern NEB while the CMC and EURO not so much. 


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#18
Snowlover76

Posted 25 December 2017 - 12:51 PM

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Most of the GFS ensembles show a good hit here in eastern NEB while the CMC and EURO not so much.


The GFS has had a decent winter

#19
bud2380

Posted 25 December 2017 - 01:54 PM

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GFS a little weaker this run but keeps snow coverage and track the same. Still solid.

#20
bud2380

Posted 25 December 2017 - 01:57 PM

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3-4” for almost all of Iowa this run.
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#21
dubuque473

Posted 25 December 2017 - 02:42 PM

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DVN saying 1-2" for me of 20-25:1...

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#22
james1976

Posted 25 December 2017 - 03:00 PM

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DVN saying 1-2" for me of 20-25:1...

Some weenie qpf if thats the case. I guess we cant expect much with bitter cold air.
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#23
Niko

Posted 25 December 2017 - 04:29 PM

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This from NOAA:

 

Long range guidance is coming into better agreement
handling the arrival of a surge of northern stream PV energy
Thursday night into Friday, which may spawn
another clipper system
similar to the one that occurred on Christmas Eve,
with this system
being the next chance for widespread accumulating snowfall. It is
still too early to tell potential amounts, but will need to keep
monitoring this system over the coming days as the synoptic setup
looks to be quite favorable with a negatively-tilted shortwave
trough swinging through. Behind this system heading into the New
Years holiday weekend, lake effect regime will once again setup with
strong high pressure diving south into the northern Plains.



#24
Niko

Posted 25 December 2017 - 04:35 PM

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@Jaster,

 

Keep an eye on this one. ;)


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#25
jaster220

Posted 25 December 2017 - 04:41 PM

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Yep, I need it to go stronger and get amped just a bit earlier than yesterday's..should be fun, and I have a good feeling about this next one.
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#26
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 December 2017 - 05:20 PM

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Ratios will be high of course but have to be concerned about flake size and if there will be any wind tearing the flakes apart.


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#27
East Dubzz

Posted 25 December 2017 - 06:15 PM

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DVN saying 1-2" for me of 20-25:1...


Seems pretty reasonable at this time. I’d say more like 1-3” if I was asked, but it’s still a ways away so who knows.

#28
NEJeremy

Posted 25 December 2017 - 07:15 PM

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Both NAM models are basically saying what snow for Nebraska for Wednesday night/ Thursday?

#29
gosaints

Posted 25 December 2017 - 07:23 PM

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Both NAM models are basically saying what snow for Nebraska for Wednesday night/ Thursday?


Looks like the Euro..

#30
GDR

Posted 25 December 2017 - 07:26 PM

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Yup looks like a score for the euro also. Local met going with euro.

#31
bud2380

Posted 25 December 2017 - 07:53 PM

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GFS looks about the same. Still 3-4” for most of Iowa.

#32
Tom

Posted 25 December 2017 - 08:09 PM

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GFS looks about the same. Still 3-4” for most of Iowa.

Not bad...but I'll take it...



#33
Snowlover76

Posted 25 December 2017 - 08:13 PM

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Ew

#34
james1976

Posted 25 December 2017 - 08:25 PM

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GFS is slowly getting weaker. Not liking that. But I'm also realistic and know that there isn't much of a moisture source. If we squeeze a 1-3 or 2-4 event out of this I will be stoked. Its gonna be brutal cold so anything that falls will fluff up.


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#35
james1976

Posted 25 December 2017 - 08:27 PM

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Not bad...but I'll take it...

 

Widespread advisory snow if that verifies.



#36
bud2380

Posted 25 December 2017 - 08:28 PM

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2-4” seems realistic to me at this point.
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#37
Tabitha

Posted 25 December 2017 - 09:37 PM

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Biggest Euro run ever coming up...

 

...or at least since 12z



#38
bud2380

Posted 26 December 2017 - 03:58 AM

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DMX saying 1-3” area wide. Models still mostly at odds on placement. GFS maintains a much larger area of moderate snow from southern Iowa all the way north of the twin cities. All other models have lighter snow south and the heaviest bands in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Both the GFS and Euro have been consistent run to run and now within 48 hours of the event and we still have a pretty decent discrepancy

#39
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 04:18 AM

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I like this model from the NWS and it did pretty good on the Christmas eve event.  This is through Thu 6:00pm...

 

ndfd_acc_snow_mw_66.png



#40
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 04:44 AM

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Might have to start another thread for the stronger wave on the Fri/Sat period.  Will wait another day and see how models trend today on the second wave.

 

Meantime, here is LOT's thinking for Thursday's light snow...

 

 

 

There will be a wave
in the morning, but it is not clear if this will impact the entire
area or focus along the Wisconsin border north. There is not much
moisture return also. In spite of these differences, there is a
decent signal for at least a period of light snow, or several
periods Thursday into Thursday night. The dendritic growth region is
deep and on most guidance at least partially supersaturated such
that a period of fluffy snow (15-20:1 type snow) is expected, in
spite of omega still focused at colder than optimal snow
production values. HPC has a 1- 2" stripe south and 2-4" stripe
north, which while most certainly plausible given the GEFS
ensemble range of QPF is 0.07" to 0.25" (mean of 0.15") for ORD,
but the GFS is the most aggressive in terms of QPF, and we may
just get grazed with the snow per the NAM/EC/GEM/SREF, so will
play it a bit more conservative this far out.


#41
Hawkeye

Posted 26 December 2017 - 05:38 AM

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At this point, the GFS is the only model showing anything decent for most of Iowa Thursday, and each run is shrinking and drying the system a bit more.


season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#42
bud2380

Posted 26 December 2017 - 06:26 AM

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NAM continues to be way north of the GFS.  Like a couple hundred miles.  Stunning really considering this event is now about 36 hours from breaking out snow.  I have a feeling the GFS will be more wrong than right.  



#43
NEJeremy

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:11 AM

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NWS going with a 30% snow here for a couple hours for Wednesday night. Says snow will be northeast of Omaha. GFS was off it’s rocker when it showed run after run of 4-6”+ for eastern Nebraska
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#44
GDR

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:47 AM

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Yup not sure what Kool-aid gfs is on but not looking good for Iowa but maybe a inch or two with these clippers coming through . Oh well!

#45
bud2380

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:51 AM

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yep, GFS with a big jump north.  now in line with most of the other models.  Still drops an  inch or so down my way, but nothing like the 3-5" it had been showing for the past 3 days.  



#46
bud2380

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:52 AM

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2.3" for Iowa City I guess verbatim, but given the evolution of this storm, that seems overdone.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#47
GDR

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:53 AM

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Yup big jump north nothing but some flurries for my area. Looks like the weekend might be a non factor also.

#48
GDR

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:54 AM

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The 12z is even further north.

#49
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:54 AM

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I'll take another 1-2" for a re-fresher and keep building up the snow pack around these parts as we head into January.


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#50
Tom

Posted 26 December 2017 - 07:57 AM

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The 12z is even further north.

Second wave on Fri hits S IA with 1-2"...these waves can be sneaky as we have seen in parts of NE/KC yesterday and today...esp with such cold air and good dendrite growth...


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