Tom Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Well, Winter wx continues to roll on as another disturbance is expected to lay down another swath of snow. There is still some uncertainty but the GFS has shown plenty of consistency and it's ensembles agree. Who's ready for another plow-able snow??? 12z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017122512/132/snku_acc.us_mw.png 12z GGEM is showing it also but a little different scenario... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Hard to ignore GFS consistency. Would like to see Euro agree with it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 UK seems to be similar to GFS for wed/thu system. Maybe a little less qpf but precip shield looks similar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Got to work this morning and someone was mentioning this. Hope we get a decent amount... 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 12z GEFS...pretty good agreement on the placement of the expected snows... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro is still pretty weak. A little further north and east with heavier placement from GFS as wel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 12z Euro... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/mw/ecmwf_t_precip_mw_96.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_96.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 12z Euro has the snow falling with temps in the mid teens...I have no doubt snow ratios will at the min be roughly 15:1...all depends on the moisture to deliver... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Might have to gas up my broom again 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro has another wave sneak into the MW on Friday.... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/conus/ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_102.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/conus/ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_108.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/conus/ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_114.png Total qpf from the Thu/Fri event... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/mw/ecmwf_t_precip_mw_114.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_114.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 So has the Thursday storm faded away? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 So has the Thursday storm faded away?No, there is just disagreement on the timing among the models and how it develops... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 12z Euro has the snow falling with temps in the mid teens...I have no doubt snow ratios will at the min be roughly 15:1...all depends on the moisture to deliver...DMX said 20-25:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 DMX said 20-25:1Max ratios very rarely pan out though. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Max ratios very rarely pan out though.This Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Max ratios very rarely pan out though.Ain’t that the truth? Gosh, I can’t even describe how many times I was told ratios would be high and to expect more than the forecast maps were showing, only for them to be something like 8:1 when all is said and done. Ratios are tricky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Most of the GFS ensembles show a good hit here in eastern NEB while the CMC and EURO not so much. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Most of the GFS ensembles show a good hit here in eastern NEB while the CMC and EURO not so much.The GFS has had a decent winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 GFS a little weaker this run but keeps snow coverage and track the same. Still solid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 3-4” for almost all of Iowa this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 DVN saying 1-2" for me of 20-25:1... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 DVN saying 1-2" for me of 20-25:1...Some weenie qpf if thats the case. I guess we cant expect much with bitter cold air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 This from NOAA: Long range guidance is coming into better agreementhandling the arrival of a surge of northern stream PV energyThursday night into Friday, which may spawn another clipper systemsimilar to the one that occurred on Christmas Eve, with this systembeing the next chance for widespread accumulating snowfall. It isstill too early to tell potential amounts, but will need to keepmonitoring this system over the coming days as the synoptic setuplooks to be quite favorable with a negatively-tilted shortwavetrough swinging through. Behind this system heading into the NewYears holiday weekend, lake effect regime will once again setup withstrong high pressure diving south into the northern Plains. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 @Jaster, Keep an eye on this one. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yep, I need it to go stronger and get amped just a bit earlier than yesterday's..should be fun, and I have a good feeling about this next one. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Ratios will be high of course but have to be concerned about flake size and if there will be any wind tearing the flakes apart. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 DVN saying 1-2" for me of 20-25:1...Seems pretty reasonable at this time. I’d say more like 1-3” if I was asked, but it’s still a ways away so who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Both NAM models are basically saying what snow for Nebraska for Wednesday night/ Thursday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Both NAM models are basically saying what snow for Nebraska for Wednesday night/ Thursday?Looks like the Euro.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yup looks like a score for the euro also. Local met going with euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 GFS looks about the same. Still 3-4” for most of Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 GFS looks about the same. Still 3-4” for most of Iowa.Not bad...but I'll take it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 GFS is slowly getting weaker. Not liking that. But I'm also realistic and know that there isn't much of a moisture source. If we squeeze a 1-3 or 2-4 event out of this I will be stoked. Its gonna be brutal cold so anything that falls will fluff up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Not bad...but I'll take it... Widespread advisory snow if that verifies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 2-4” seems realistic to me at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Biggest Euro run ever coming up... ...or at least since 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2017 Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 DMX saying 1-3” area wide. Models still mostly at odds on placement. GFS maintains a much larger area of moderate snow from southern Iowa all the way north of the twin cities. All other models have lighter snow south and the heaviest bands in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Both the GFS and Euro have been consistent run to run and now within 48 hours of the event and we still have a pretty decent discrepancy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 I like this model from the NWS and it did pretty good on the Christmas eve event. This is through Thu 6:00pm... http://wx.graphics/models/ndfd/2017122611/mw/ndfd_acc_snow_mw_66.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2017 Might have to start another thread for the stronger wave on the Fri/Sat period. Will wait another day and see how models trend today on the second wave. Meantime, here is LOT's thinking for Thursday's light snow... There will be a wavein the morning, but it is not clear if this will impact the entirearea or focus along the Wisconsin border north. There is not muchmoisture return also. In spite of these differences, there is adecent signal for at least a period of light snow, or severalperiods Thursday into Thursday night. The dendritic growth region isdeep and on most guidance at least partially supersaturated suchthat a period of fluffy snow (15-20:1 type snow) is expected, inspite of omega still focused at colder than optimal snowproduction values. HPC has a 1- 2" stripe south and 2-4" stripenorth, which while most certainly plausible given the GEFSensemble range of QPF is 0.07" to 0.25" (mean of 0.15") for ORD,but the GFS is the most aggressive in terms of QPF, and we mayjust get grazed with the snow per the NAM/EC/GEM/SREF, so willplay it a bit more conservative this far out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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