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12/28 - 12/29 Plains/MW/GL's Snow Event


Tom

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At this point, the GFS is the only model showing anything decent for most of Iowa Thursday, and each run is shrinking and drying the system a bit more.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Friday's event is a thread the needle type system on the GFS.  Looks like about 50-75 mile swath is all.  Saturday is looking to be decent for Nebraska, but then either dries out or heads south from there.  

The Sat/Sun showing the CO Low coming out into the Plains is trending better for those out in the Plains/S MW....its trending better with a High over Low and could be a decent NYE storm system to track.  However, we may be to far north for this one.

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Euro was a little farther north with this system. Even if we get missed the LES looks to be the real deal.

I'm considering starting a separate thread for the weekend system.  It's been on my calendar for a couple weeks and I hope the trends are positive today with the rest of the models.  

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Most of these waves have trended north lately so guessing weekend system might do the same

In fact, most waves/systems have over performed as we got closer...Ala Christmas Eve surprise and Christmas Day/night surprise in NE/KS...can't rule it out for this weekend.  I think the tables have turned as we entered past the Winter Solstice. 

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Recent trends seems to fit in perfectly with this winter. And last. I’d rather just have it back into the 50s so I can hit the links.

 

Welcome back.  I haven't seen you post in a long time.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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In fact, most waves/systems have over performed as we got closer...Ala Christmas Eve surprise and Christmas Day/night surprise in NE/KS...can't rule it out for this weekend. I think the tables have turned as we entered past the Winter Solstice.

Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to that

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Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to that

To be clear, I’m not talking about fantasy land snow clown maps as your indicating. I’m referring to near term tracking. This particular system can easily be an over achiever.
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Most of these waves have overperformed? The GFS has been showing for days 12-18” of snow for this week for large chunks of our forum and it’s not going to come anywhere close to that

GFS shows big hits trends to almost nothing... Then performs about as to be expected maybe over performs where meso weenie bands set up

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To be clear, I’m not talking about fantasy land snow clown maps as your indicating. I’m referring to near term tracking. This particular system can easily be an over achiever.

These were forecast maps for the next 5-6 days. Hell the GFS had 8-10” within 3 days for Wednesday night and Thursday for eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Not fantasy land time to me but to each their own

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These were forecast maps for the next 5-6 days. Hell the GFS had 8-10” within 3 days for Wednesday night and Thursday for eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Not fantasy land time to me but to each their own

Fair enough. Based on my ideas/thoughts with this NYE holiday system, I’m going to believe trends hold. It’s been on my mind for quite a while so I think I have a good idea of its potential.

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Welcome back. I haven't seen you post in a long time.

Thanks! I am usually more of a winter guy, and well.... our winters have been lacking, which doesn’t help.

 

Plus I’m in the middle of my last year of college, so I’ve been really busy the past few months. Was hoping to get some nice storms to track over break, but I’m not too happy with what I’m seeing right now!

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Tom, you may wanna consider killing 2 birds with one stone and extending the date of this thread to include the weekend system. We're talking about the weekend in here already.

 

DVN

 

The first issue is a Clipper system that will affect at least a

portion of the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. The

GFS/GEM continue to be more bullish with QPF than the ECMWF/WRF,

which limit most of the snow to north of Interstate 80. Not going to

discount the GFS/GEM yet, and have boosted pops/QPF/snowfall from

the model blend output. This yields 1-2 inches north of Interstate

80, with a light dusting south. Would not be surprised if we

eventually need to consider an advisory with the arctic air in place

and SLR`s at or above 20:1. Snow with the first Clipper will likely

taper off Thursday evening in the northeast.

 

The next Clipper likely arrives Friday afternoon and evening, with

another quick 1-2 inches possible. Consensus pops favor the

southwest half of the forecast area for the most snow. Another shot

of bitterly cold air will arrive behind this wave, with wind chill

values to 25 below zero across the north.

 

For Saturday, the GFS is advertising an third Clipper, while the

ECMWF is dry. Have continued low pops for this period. What is more

certain is continue cold conditions, with wind chill advisory

criteria likely over much if not all of the forecast area Saturday

night and again Sunday night.

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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