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12/28 - 12/29 Plains/MW/GL's Snow Event

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#101
james1976

Posted 27 December 2017 - 05:39 AM

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00z EPS mean likes C IA/C IL as the corridor of the heaviest precip...00z Euro control hits all of IA with at least 2-4" and into C IL/C IN...E NE gets clipped as well...N IL roughly 1-2"...Nice overnight trends that did not look all to well yesterday. Don't throw in the towel in a pattern like this. These waves tend to deliver some interesting meso scale banding in such an cold air mass.

Yup, DMX mentioned banding but are not getting aggressive with accumulations. Said maybe iso 3". Did mention potential advisory but with current wind chill headlines they dont want confusion.
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#102
Tom

Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:02 AM

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12z NAM showing a quick burst of snow for C IA peeps overnight tonight with 2-3"...MSP rush hour may not be to nice....



#103
Tom

Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:11 AM

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12z NAM not all that bad for IA/MN peeps with the first wave tonight into tomorrow am...

 

 



#104
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:29 AM

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12z NAM showing a quick burst of snow for C IA peeps overnight tonight with 2-3"...MSP rush hour may not be to nice....


Several inches of very dry snow falling on frozen concrete during rush hour equals disaster. I’m already thinking about working from home tomorrow so I don’t have to deal with that madness. 2-5” in my point and click for tonight thru tomorrow morning.
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#105
Niko

Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:34 AM

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Several inches of very dry snow falling on frozen concrete during rush hour equals disaster. I’m already thinking about working from home tomorrow so I don’t have to deal with that madness. 2-5” in my point and click for tonight thru tomorrow morning.

Best solution bud. I do that all the time, if I must. :)


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#106
james1976

Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:42 AM

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12z NAM not all that bad for IA/MN peeps with the first wave tonight into tomorrow am...

I assume these are with predicted ratios?
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#107
dubuque473

Posted 27 December 2017 - 07:40 AM

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DVN says 18-20:1

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#108
james1976

Posted 27 December 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Man thats a dry looking GFS run. Is it even gonna snow lol?

#109
Madtown

Posted 27 December 2017 - 08:14 AM

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ick...

#110
East Dubzz

Posted 27 December 2017 - 08:32 AM

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Local mets going with 2-3" here...

Seems a bit too aggressive if you ask me.

First storm is drying up. Second storm is south. Let’s bring back the 50s so I can use my new golf membership and new clubs. This cold weather is useless if there’s no snow.
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#111
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 December 2017 - 08:43 AM

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12Z NAM is lighter here for Saturday.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#112
Hawkeye

Posted 27 December 2017 - 09:35 AM

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Models are very weak with the Wednesday night/Thursday wave.  Here's the UK, which only has about 0.03" in CR.

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_36.png


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#113
james1976

Posted 27 December 2017 - 09:36 AM

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Be lucky to get flurries out of this. Models are really drying up.

#114
Hawkeye

Posted 27 December 2017 - 09:40 AM

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The UK is more robust Friday, with a more sw track.  Here's the UK map through the weekend.  A last wave adds a bit to Nebraska over the weekend.

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_108.png


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#115
Hawkeye

Posted 27 December 2017 - 10:17 AM

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The 12z euro continues to show the more robust Friday wave a bit farther northeast, missing Nebraska.  The total precip map isn't loading, but here's the 10:1 snow map through the weekend.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_102.png


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#116
East Dubzz

Posted 27 December 2017 - 10:33 AM

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NWS Quad Cities has 1-2” for tomorrow here; Des Moines has 2-3”; and LaCrosse has 1-2” here. I’d side even more towards the 1” mark than anything, but we’ll see what happens.

#117
james1976

Posted 27 December 2017 - 10:46 AM

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Yup looking way dry. See what the radar does this evening.

#118
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 December 2017 - 11:12 AM

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Forecast totals down to 2-3” here. Will probably be down to an inch by this evening. I always thought the initial forecast totals were a bit too high given the dry, cold air. Temps will be in the low single digits above 0F when the snow falls.

#119
NH4NU

Posted 27 December 2017 - 11:30 AM

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My .02 is that we can’t overlook the fact that 00z and 12z GFS have been relatively consistent with storm track and placement since last Thursday. GFS also caught on to these brutal temps. Appears that EURO is playing catch-up this time around.

#120
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 27 December 2017 - 11:54 AM

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My .02 is that we can’t overlook the fact that 00z and 12z GFS have been relatively consistent with storm track and placement since last Thursday. GFS also caught on to these brutal temps. Appears that EURO is playing catch-up this time around.


Euro is playing catch up? Please elaborate.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#121
james1976

Posted 27 December 2017 - 12:07 PM

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Euro has been drier all along. GFS prolly more accurate with temps.

#122
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 December 2017 - 12:13 PM

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Nwlinncounty ia guy only ssying that cause he prefers the gfs cause it gives him snow lol

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#123
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 December 2017 - 12:14 PM

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I mean EURO

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#124
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 December 2017 - 12:28 PM

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15z SREF plumes with a mean of 4” at MSP. No real high or low outliers skewing the mean either. Nice cluster between 3-5”. We’ll see how this unfolds once the radar lights up. The models were fairly consistent for many days leading up to this. Would be a shame for this thing to die out now.

#125
james1976

Posted 27 December 2017 - 12:47 PM

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I wonder if DMX will still issue advisory. They have a special weather statement now regarding the expected snow.

#126
NEJeremy

Posted 27 December 2017 - 12:49 PM

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Nwlinncounty ia guy only ssying that cause he prefers the gfs cause it gives him snow lol

Craig- The GFS has been crap for amounts. You live in Omaha. Look out your window and see all the snow we didn't get that was forecasted. Euro has been much more accurate on amounts of snow. Placement has been different between the two.


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#127
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 27 December 2017 - 12:50 PM

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Nwlinncounty ia guy only ssying that cause he prefers the gfs cause it gives him snow lol

What? I've been dissing the GFS this whole week, and the Euro is the drier(and more realistic) of the two models. If you were expecting 12" of snow in single digits, you're only fixing to be let down.


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#128
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:05 PM

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Nwlinncounty ia guy only ssying that cause he prefers the gfs cause it gives him snow lol

Also I want you to justify this Facebook post of yours. Seriously?? 

 

0baea097845d76ad5190cc177467eff7.png


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#129
bud2380

Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:18 PM

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Euro has a stripe of .1-.2” qpf directly through Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Friday. With high ratios could be a 2-4” event. I’ll hold my breath.

#130
NEJeremy

Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:21 PM

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Look at these amounts the GFS has kept spitting out for this week. Some of these of course include next weekend yet to come, but it seems we're seeing a trend here with the GFS. Way too wet!!

 

Attached File  18Z GFS 1224 168 hr.png   85.35KB   2 downloads

 

Attached File  12Z GFS 1225 84 hr.png   79.94KB   1 downloads

This was the GFS forecast through tonight into Thursday for only 84 hours out. 8" for Omaha?

 

Attached File  12Z 1225 156hr.png   84.91KB   1 downloads

 

Attached File  0Z GFS 1226 120 hr.png   83.41KB   2 downloads

This was a 5 day total through this Saturday showing a foot to a foot and a half over a large chunk of Iowa


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#131
bud2380

Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:24 PM

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Those GFS maps make no sense. COD must be using 50:1 ratios to get those snow amounts.
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#132
Iowawx

Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:26 PM

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Euro has a stripe of .1-.2” qpf directly through Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Friday. With high ratios could be a 2-4” event. I’ll hold my breath.


What time on Friday does that begin in the Cedar Rapids area?

#133
bud2380

Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:29 PM

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Looks to start after noon on Friday per the euro.

Attached File  EF3C271B-77DA-465E-9F79-4D312EAF4C7F.png   535.08KB   0 downloads

#134
bud2380

Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:33 PM

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DVN completely punted on the Friday forecast in the AFD.

#135
Illinois_WX

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:12 PM

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Still confused if I'm on the right storm lol but the storm on the GFS is starting to trend towards the EURO. King might win out on this, clearly that's what the WFO out here has been going with. No Bueno for us out here in LNK.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#136
Illinois_WX

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:17 PM

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Also I want you to justify this Facebook post of yours. Seriously?? 

 

0baea097845d76ad5190cc177467eff7.png

 

 

 

Funny enough, I had 4 people send this post to me and say "omg how". I just don't like the wording, I have no problem showing it, but instead of saying "prepare now" why not just say "potential for this... stay tuned"; my friends are buying into it because of the wording, and they shouldn't be.  


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#137
NEJeremy

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:27 PM

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Those GFS maps make no sense. COD must be using 50:1 ratios to get those snow amounts.

They are high ratios(some kind of Kuchera method), but even if you look at actual qpf amounts, it was forecasting nearly .6" of moisture in Iowa on that bottom run of the 120 hour through Saturday. Like I said, GFS has been way too wet.



#138
Illinois_WX

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:30 PM

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They are high ratios(some kind of Kuchera method), but even if you look at actual qpf amounts, it was forecasting nearly .6" of moisture in Iowa on that bottom run of the 120 hour through Saturday. Like I said, GFS has been way too wet.

 

 

So what're you thinking as of now? Honestly, with the cold temperatures, we might not even get a dusting from the recent trends :(


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#139
james1976

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:37 PM

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Theres absolutely no talk in here of tonight's event lol

#140
Tabitha

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:41 PM

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Snow is falling in NE Nebraska; per radar...

 

Norfolk reporting some light snow at 4 PM.



#141
Niko

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:57 PM

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Look at these amounts the GFS has kept spitting out for this week. Some of these of course include next weekend yet to come, but it seems we're seeing a trend here with the GFS. Way too wet!!

 

attachicon.gif18Z GFS 1224 168 hr.png

 

attachicon.gif12Z GFS 1225 84 hr.png

This was the GFS forecast through tonight into Thursday for only 84 hours out. 8" for Omaha?

 

attachicon.gif12Z 1225 156hr.png

 

attachicon.gif0Z GFS 1226 120 hr.png

This was a 5 day total through this Saturday showing a foot to a foot and a half over a large chunk of Iowa

It will get very active!



#142
Niko

Posted 27 December 2017 - 02:59 PM

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Prolly nada, but cannot rule out an inch or 2 for MBY. IMHO, I think the dry air will eat out any moisture.


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#143
NEJeremy

Posted 27 December 2017 - 03:21 PM

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So what're you thinking as of now? Honestly, with the cold temperatures, we might not even get a dusting from the recent trends :(

yeah everything keeps getting lowered once we get closer to the actual event. The NAM is now spitting out .25-.3" of qpf in Iowa through Saturday's storm which seems the most reasonable if even that won't end up being a bit too high. 18Z GFS now is in that range too, when it used to show 2x that amount. With these cold temps and high ratios, that could be 4-5" if someone is lucky enough to get hit by both waves. it seems though the ratios haven't always been working out. I know our airport reported an 8:1 ratio on the snowfall before Christmas when the temps were in the teens.

Until we get actual southwest flow that was supposed to be happening by now and heck even a bit warmer temps, I don't see anything more than these nickel and dimers continuing. But hey, at least it's horribly cold!! :P


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#144
NEJeremy

Posted 27 December 2017 - 03:35 PM

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It will get very active!

It already is active. We're getting "clippered to death" with a storm somewhere in this region every couple of days. Nice to see storms, bad if you'd like to get a big snowstorm or blizzard. The issue is if we're wanting a big storm, it's not going to happen in this pattern. 


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#145
Tabitha

Posted 27 December 2017 - 03:42 PM

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 I don't see anything more than these nickel and dimers continuing.

 

There's no free lunch

There's no free time

There's no ladder

I'm going to climb

 

I'd rather lead

A life of crime

Than just get

Nickeled & dimed



#146
Snowlover76

Posted 27 December 2017 - 03:42 PM

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I don't mind clippers.

#147
gabel23

Posted 27 December 2017 - 03:45 PM

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It already is active. We're getting "clippered to death" with a storm somewhere in this region every couple of days. Nice to see storms, bad if you'd like to get a big snowstorm or blizzard. The issue is if we're wanting a big storm, it's not going to happen in this pattern. 

You could have a blizzard with a saskatchewan screamer or alberta clipper. Believe it or not, the 1888 blizzard was brought on by an alberta clipper. I would love to see one of those; but your right we need a colorado low to get a true blizzard. Honestly, if we manage to get one of those this winter I would be happy; this winter has already been better than last years IMO. 



#148
gabel23

Posted 27 December 2017 - 03:46 PM

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There's no free lunch

There's no free time

There's no ladder

I'm going to climb

 

I'd rather lead

A life of crime

Than just get

Nickeled & dimed

:lol:  that's funny shizzit! 


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#149
Tom

Posted 27 December 2017 - 04:11 PM

Tom

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Looks like some decent bands of snow are sliding closer to DSM...


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#150
Money

Posted 27 December 2017 - 04:20 PM

Money

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I don't mind clippers.


Lol that’s not what you said a few weeks ago