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12/28 - 12/29 Plains/MW/GL's Snow Event

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Tom
Tom

Fair enough. Based on my ideas/thoughts with this NYE holiday system, I’m going to believe trends hold. It’s been on my mind for quite a while so I think I have a good idea of its potential.

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

This.  This last band is dropping the kind of snow I love to watch.... medium dendrites coming down pretty good, no wind.  I wish all snow could be like this.

hlcater
hlcater

Feels amazing to have this back in the forecast. I can't remember the last one.  

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

Posted
Posted

12z Canadian is fantastic for the Black Hills; with almost continuous snow here from Hour 48 through Hour 120.

 

Of course the Canadian is terrible outside of 48 hours; so take it with a grain of NaCl...

 

As bad as the EC is for the Black Hills (maybe 0.2 - 0.4 LE depending on altitude); I'm still quite optimistic.  The GFS, Canadian, & UKMET all look good; they all look like at least 8 inches or more of snow from Thursday through Sunday.

 

Truth be told; the 12z EC was a slight improvement over the terrible 0z run for this area.

 

The ratio for the month has averaged around 23:1 out here...

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
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The NAM has the Friday system cutting through the heart of Iowa.  Similar to the Euro.  

 

And it's totally gone on the 00z.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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6z NAM wants a little surprise over Omaha into northeast Nebraska and western Iowa lol

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017122706/021/snku_acc.us_c.png

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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00z EPS mean likes C IA/C IL as the corridor of the heaviest precip...00z Euro control hits all of IA with at least 2-4" and into C IL/C IN...E NE gets clipped as well...N IL roughly 1-2"...Nice overnight trends that did not look all to well yesterday.  Don't throw in the towel in a pattern like this.  These waves tend to deliver some interesting meso scale banding in such an cold air mass.

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

Posted
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00z EPS mean likes C IA/C IL as the corridor of the heaviest precip...00z Euro control hits all of IA with at least 2-4" and into C IL/C IN...E NE gets clipped as well...N IL roughly 1-2"...Nice overnight trends that did not look all to well yesterday. Don't throw in the towel in a pattern like this. These waves tend to deliver some interesting meso scale banding in such an cold air mass.

Yup, DMX mentioned banding but are not getting aggressive with accumulations. Said maybe iso 3". Did mention potential advisory but with current wind chill headlines they dont want confusion.
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St Paul Storm Contributor

St Paul Storm

Posted
Posted

12z NAM showing a quick burst of snow for C IA peeps overnight tonight with 2-3"...MSP rush hour may not be to nice....

Several inches of very dry snow falling on frozen concrete during rush hour equals disaster. I’m already thinking about working from home tomorrow so I don’t have to deal with that madness. 2-5” in my point and click for tonight thru tomorrow morning.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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Several inches of very dry snow falling on frozen concrete during rush hour equals disaster. I’m already thinking about working from home tomorrow so I don’t have to deal with that madness. 2-5” in my point and click for tonight thru tomorrow morning.

Best solution bud. I do that all the time, if I must. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
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Models are very weak with the Wednesday night/Thursday wave.  Here's the UK, which only has about 0.03" in CR.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017122712/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_36.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The UK is more robust Friday, with a more sw track.  Here's the UK map through the weekend.  A last wave adds a bit to Nebraska over the weekend.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017122712/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_108.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The 12z euro continues to show the more robust Friday wave a bit farther northeast, missing Nebraska.  The total precip map isn't loading, but here's the 10:1 snow map through the weekend.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122712/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_102.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

My .02 is that we can’t overlook the fact that 00z and 12z GFS have been relatively consistent with storm track and placement since last Thursday. GFS also caught on to these brutal temps. Appears that EURO is playing catch-up this time around.

Euro is playing catch up? Please elaborate.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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