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January 2018 Observations and Discussions

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#51
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:00 AM

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CMC has the low too but doesn't really join forces with the cold air. But liking the fact that a storm is at least on it


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#52
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:47 AM

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Euro showing something in WY/CO @ 192. Once again has cold air going away here. 


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#53
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Euro much different but still has the system. Weaker and further south. Here we go buckle up for a ride!

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#54
jaster220

Posted 30 December 2017 - 11:02 AM

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You guy doing play-by-play comments on a d9 storm crack me up. It's not worth more than a passing mention at this range. Thus why AFD's usually won't waste more than that AMT of time on it.

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#55
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 30 December 2017 - 11:04 AM

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Then why even post here then? This place is too discuss potential systems lol
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#56
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 December 2017 - 11:25 AM

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You guy doing play-by-play comments on a d9 storm crack me up. It's not worth more than a passing mention at this range. Thus why AFD's usually won't waste more than that AMT of time on it.


The reason they don't mention it is because it's outside of their 7-day window. A few forecasters go beyond that but not many.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#57
Madtown

Posted 30 December 2017 - 11:44 AM

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Hey Tom! What's your thoughts on the 17th to 21st period...hope to do some sledding up north. Wondering if that's the pullback period or still downright frigid. That is for any input!

#58
Tom

Posted 30 December 2017 - 11:56 AM

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Hey Tom! What's your thoughts on the 17th to 21st period...hope to do some sledding up north. Wondering if that's the pullback period or still downright frigid. That is for any input!

I think the farther north you go your going to be safe from any big thaw.  Climo at this time of year is usually when its the coldest anyhow.  It could get stormy around this period though so something to keep an eye on.  I'll keep you in mind when I dive in deeper later in the month.



#59
Tom

Posted 30 December 2017 - 12:02 PM

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My goodness, what an active wave train in the N PAC up into the Aleutians/Bearing Sea over the nex 10 days!  12z EPS has 3 significant storms taking almost an identical path straight up from the N/C PAC into the central Bearing Sea.  You can't script it better than that and may likely translate to a very active second half of January.  GEFS are also indicating a similar look.

 

 


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#60
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 December 2017 - 01:13 PM

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OAX is very excited about the long term obviously. They put awesome effort into the long term AFD.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

The extended period looks cold and dry with highs in the teens.
However, there is hope on the horizon with highs back into the mid
20s to lower 30s by next Saturday.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#61
Niko

Posted 30 December 2017 - 01:40 PM

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My highs for next week just keep getting colder and colder and colder. There is a good chance that my highs could remain below zero much of the day and lows approaching all time record cold, which could be in the -20s. For sure -10s. Real feel if there is wind could be dangerously cold. This coldwave could surpass 13-14' cold.


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#62
GDR

Posted 30 December 2017 - 03:23 PM

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Looks like a boring gfs run

#63
Niko

Posted 30 December 2017 - 03:51 PM

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Not going above freezing anytime soon. Wow. Here is a record likely to be broken for Detroit........

 

Per NOAA:

With increased confidence regarding sub-20
degree temperatures on Wednesday, Detroit will have a shot at
breaking the record for number of consecutive days where max
temperature < 20. The current record is 11 days in a row, once
achieved on 02/02/1936 and again on 02/18/1979.



#64
Tony

Posted 30 December 2017 - 04:14 PM

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This cold us reminiscent of the late 70's but unfortunately we had tons more snow back then. Maybe things will change but not looking good as of now.
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#65
Money

Posted 30 December 2017 - 08:33 PM

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GFS/GEM both with a cutter

Hits WI/IA/MN pretty good

#66
Tony

Posted 30 December 2017 - 08:41 PM

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Not much snow with it but a good start

#67
Madtown

Posted 30 December 2017 - 08:42 PM

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Rainer down this way?

#68
Money

Posted 30 December 2017 - 08:47 PM

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Rainer down this way?


Nah both are good for you

#69
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 30 December 2017 - 09:55 PM

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Wow GFS / CMC sure look pretty good for Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin folks here. Let's keep an eye on it.


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#70
gabel23

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:39 PM

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Wow GFS / CMC sure look pretty good for Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin folks here. Let's keep an eye on it.


If the euro is still showing I’m liking the chances of some sort of trough moving through! Hopefully we get lucky with a share the wealth storm.

#71
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:45 PM

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Euro has a weaker storm for here but colder temps so it evens out here. May be even better cuz it would add onto our current snowpack instead of the current snowpack melting first.

Okay, maybe I'm speaking too soon. Now it's showing as an Ozark special. I'll keep editing this post as the run continues.

At hour 198, the snow literally splits and goes AROUND my county both to my North and my South. That's actually hilarious.

I'm done watching, but I'll say it's better to be North of the bullseye of a potential system this far out than on the bullseye.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#72
Snowlover76

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:48 PM

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Boo

#73
Snowlover76

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:53 PM

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Euro has a weaker storm for here but colder temps so it evens out here. May be even better cuz it would add onto our current snowpack instead of the current snowpack melting first.

Okay, maybe I'm speaking too soon. Now it's showing as an Ozark special. I'll keep editing this post as the run continues.

At hour 198, the snow literally splits and goes AROUND my county both to my North and my South. That's actually hilarious.

I'm done watching, but I'll say it's better to be North of the bullseye of a potential system this far out than on the bullseye.

why are you getting caught up in specifics this far out?  Just be thankfull the storm is still there 


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#74
gabel23

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:56 PM

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In other news; it's -2 and i'm seeing some very light snow, it's amazing seeing the low level clouds zipping by with the moon shining through! The next couple of days could bring temps around here that we haven't seen in quiet some time. Lows below zero would be the first one I can remember. Although I do recall the outbreak of Jan. 1996 that brought about a 40 degree temp drop in like 3 hours. I think the next day we experienced below zero highs. Regardless, we will have a cold start to the new year! 

Attached Files


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#75
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 December 2017 - 10:57 PM

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why are you getting caught up in specifics this far out? Just be thankfull the storm is still there


I'm not. Just mentioning every model trend. That's literally why I said it's better to appear screwed by a potential storm this far out than cash in. If I got excited by being in a 20" bullseye 8 days out, then I'd be an idiot.

Besides, why are you of all people telling me to be thankful?
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#76
Tom

Posted 31 December 2017 - 04:42 AM

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In other news; it's -2 and i'm seeing some very light snow, it's amazing seeing the low level clouds zipping by with the moon shining through! The next couple of days could bring temps around here that we haven't seen in quiet some time. Lows below zero would be the first one I can remember. Although I do recall the outbreak of Jan. 1996 that brought about a 40 degree temp drop in like 3 hours. I think the next day we experienced below zero highs. Regardless, we will have a cold start to the new year! 

Stay warm my friend!  Even though we are not getting as cold as you guys out there, we still may break or tie a record low tonight and a record low high for tomorrow.  The prolong stretch of this cold is something else.  I just had this feeling back in Oct when those strong early Autumn HP's centered themselves over the Plains you guys would be experiencing some frigid air this winter.  Happy New Year bud!


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#77
Tom

Posted 31 December 2017 - 06:00 AM

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IF the GEFS Strat forecats are correct, along with the N PAC pattern over the next 2 weeks, this month may end up significantly colder than expected.  The forecasted behavior in the models of the Polar Vortex reminds me vividly of what we saw in Jan '14.  Models keep trending colder in the extended and we are also seeing high lat blocking which is a bonus element into the pattern going forward.  The CFSv2 weeklies may be beginning to trend colder for Week 3-4 as the model is suggesting a warm PDO/warm ring of waters in the N PAC.

 

 

CFSv2.SST.20171231.201801.gif

 

 

 

Here is the last run for Jan...

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20171231.201801.gif

 

 

See the trends...warm temps along the west coast up into NW NAMER...I recall seeing the same flips in the model for Jan '14...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201801.gif


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#78
gabel23

Posted 31 December 2017 - 07:06 AM

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Stay warm my friend! Even though we are not getting as cold as you guys out there, we still may break or tie a record low tonight and a record low high for tomorrow. The prolong stretch of this cold is something else. I just had this feeling back in Oct when those strong early Autumn HP's centered themselves over the Plains you guys would be experiencing some frigid air this winter. Happy New Year bud!


Thanks man, happy new year to you too! Thanks for all you do Tom, I always look forward to reading your posts, you do an awesome job! Which by the way, where you ever going to major in Weather or is it just a side passion?? I started off majoring in it but the math was too hard for me.....
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#79
Tom

Posted 31 December 2017 - 08:10 AM

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Thanks man, happy new year to you too! Thanks for all you do Tom, I always look forward to reading your posts, you do an awesome job! Which by the way, where you ever going to major in Weather or is it just a side passion?? I started off majoring in it but the math was too hard for me.....

I appreciate that!  Years ago, when I was just a kid, watching Tom Skilling on WGN and also TWC, the weather became a fascination to me.  It was not until 4 or 5 years ago where I became very curious of the climate and how it all works together.  Until recently, I became overwhelmed by the majesty of the weather and climate around the globe and how it impacts our lives.  My intentions are to work on some peculiar plans in this field in the years to come, but first, I need to finish getting our companies project off the ground and running in 2018 as we anticipate to come out of the gates roaring.  At least, that is the plan...


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#80
gabel23

Posted 31 December 2017 - 08:27 AM

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I appreciate that!  Years ago, when I was just a kid, watching Tom Skilling on WGN and also TWC, the weather became a fascination to me.  It was not until 4 or 5 years ago where I became very curious of the climate and how it all works together.  Until recently, I became overwhelmed by the majesty of the weather and climate around the globe and how it impacts our lives.  My intentions are to work on some peculiar plans in this field in the years to come, but first, I need to finish getting our companies project off the ground and running in 2018 as we anticipate to come out of the gates roaring.  At least, that is the plan...

Well good luck to you and keep the posts coming!! 


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#81
gabel23

Posted 31 December 2017 - 08:29 AM

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The sun is shining and the temp is -2. Gonna be hard pressed to stay below zero I think. I'll be watching; one thing for sure it's like an arctic tundra out there! I'm glad we got the snow that we got last week. 


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#82
Niko

Posted 31 December 2017 - 08:34 AM

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January 2018 looks to make a cold entrance. Lets see how this month plays out and if it will be as good as December was for MBY.


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#83
Snowlover76

Posted 31 December 2017 - 09:18 AM

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The sun is shining and the temp is -2. Gonna be hard pressed to stay below zero I think. I'll be watching; one thing for sure it's like an arctic tundra out there! I'm glad we got the snow that we got last week.



If Ford makes good thermometers in their trucks it's -2 here. I think we hit 2 or 3 above.
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#84
CentralNebWeather

Posted 31 December 2017 - 09:24 AM

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As of 11:15 AM, it is -5 with a Wind Chill of -23.
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#85
jaster220

Posted 31 December 2017 - 10:13 AM

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I appreciate that! Years ago, when I was just a kid, watching Tom Skilling on WGN and also TWC, the weather became a fascination to me. It was not until 4 or 5 years ago where I became very curious of the climate and how it all works together. Until recently, I became overwhelmed by the majesty of the weather and climate around the globe and how it impacts our lives. My intentions are to work on some peculiar plans in this field in the years to come, but first, I need to finish getting our companies project off the ground and running in 2018 as we anticipate to come out of the gates roaring. At least, that is the plan...


I'm thinking Chicago does really good in January, would not be surprised if you jackpot tbh! Skilling was an immediate wx idol for me this first time I caught him on WGN (via cable) circa 1982?? But, I'd have to guess that growing up in those fabulous 70's winters is the root source of my passion for extreme conditions and snowstorms. KFNT near my home town not only did well with the 3-in-a-row that everyone remembers, but the 74-75 season was their snowiest on record with 83" until 13-14 narrowly surpassed that total. 4 out of 5 winters during the formable age of 10-15 were top 5 record setting for my region. Ofc, as a youth I thought that was "normal", LOL
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#86
Tom

Posted 31 December 2017 - 10:27 AM

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12z Euro has a sneak clipper tracking from NW/SE across ND/DSM/STL dropping 1-2” Thu pm into Fri am.
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#87
Niko

Posted 31 December 2017 - 10:34 AM

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@ Jaster

 

I think December ended up between 21-26" IMBY. First storm walloped my area w 10inches, 2nd w 7.2inches and had a few smaller ones ranging within 2-4". Safe to say, that my snowfall tally #s run close to accuracy. Dont have time to do the search!



#88
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 December 2017 - 11:15 AM

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Cmc has snow over NEB gfs gies north and euro goes south with the storm. Letbthe games begin!b

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#89
Tom

Posted 31 December 2017 - 11:31 AM

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Lets go for the record Chitown!

 

DSZDbClXcAA73PQ.jpg


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#90
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 December 2017 - 11:35 AM

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Hanging at -3 still at the airport here. If we stay at that then we will tie a record for a record low high

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#91
Tom

Posted 31 December 2017 - 01:37 PM

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CPC's outlook for the month...

 

off15_temp.gif

 

off15_prcp.gif


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#92
Niko

Posted 31 December 2017 - 02:11 PM

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Boston might be in for a major snowstorm next week. NYC is looking 50/50. All depends on the track.



#93
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 December 2017 - 02:43 PM

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That storm will likely go out to sea. Gfs came out...still north with the system. But plenty of quedtions left to be answered.

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#94
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 31 December 2017 - 03:53 PM

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The track of that system has big ramifications on our system, cant remember what, but it does.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#95
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 December 2017 - 04:07 PM

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On the bright side, fantasy GFS shows a decent storm here!


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#96
jaster220

Posted 31 December 2017 - 08:15 PM

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Starting with Wed night's clipper the pattern looks active going forward! CMC is a bit rainy with next Sunday's system and develops it more like a panhandle system while the GFS has the west to east look and way less wound-up. Long ways to go. I could stand a little rain tbh. Would settle and solidify this 2nd fluff stack into a more respectable base similar to Jan '14

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#97
Iowawx

Posted 31 December 2017 - 09:10 PM

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GFS has clipper system that Euro was showing for Friday. It's a weak system but maybe something to watch. 



#98
Iowawx

Posted 31 December 2017 - 10:05 PM

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We are now down to -22 in Cedar Rapids with a windchill of -43.



#99
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 31 December 2017 - 10:28 PM

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The extent of wind chill headlines tonight has to break some sort of record. Nearly everyone east of the rockies...

 

8cb9555ca34d06e621503bb2aa2cf058.png


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#100
Tom

Posted 01 January 2018 - 05:25 AM

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Rise and shine!  Welcome to 2018!  The future is here...as the sun rises, the temp at ORD dipped to a current low of -8F with a -27F WC under clear skies.  Looking back, I guess the GFS wasn't off its rocker showing mid -20's for this period days ago prior to this Arctic blast.

 

Here are some morning lows across N IL...

 

DSdUngtWsAAlIe-.jpg


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