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January 2018 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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I have been paying attn to this and it's something we have to monitor as to how strong the ridging will try to come back from the south and east.  The CFSv2/Euro Weeklies did a bad job for the week of the 7th-15th which will in all likelihood be colder than what they were showing just last week.  I firmly believe its the N PAC pattern and the "miss" in the -EPO which was not being advertised back then.  I want to wait till we get into later next week before jumping on board towards a major Jan Thaw.  There was a big Bearing Sea ridge that formed around Christmas thru the 28th which suggests a big ridge to come fighting back around the 17th-18th for about 3-4 days, but this seems to be a transient period as I don't see a ridge to lock and hold.  I think this is a typical CFSv2 feedback problem out in the PAC.

thank you

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Gfs still has the CO L

 

Strong high in Canada also

High over Low working out pretty good at this range...strength and placement will be interesting to track going forward.  Nice to see a storm to finally track that should cover a lot of us on here.

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High over Low working out pretty good at this range...strength and placement will be interesting to track going forward.  Nice to see a storm to finally track that should cover a lot of us on here.

Looks good!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Right on schedule!  Now, we just need this to deliver into a beautiful west/east CO Low....

LOT met has a similar idea. 

 

 

 

Regarding the possible system toward the end of the Euro run, 00z run has it again tonight. 00z 12/29 and 12z 12/29 Euro ensembles also had quite a strong signal for a system for being that far out with multiple members showing decent low pressure centers and a surface low in the ensemble mean. Hopefully if something does develop, the continued -EPO ridging that now is appearing likely prevents a warm cutter.
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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Looks like a dramatic rain to snow changeover. That's a classic CO low setup here.

I'm not sure why it's initially so warm though, all of the well entrenched cold air just gets up and leaves, it would put up more of a fight than that, which would probably lend to more of mixed precip event over straight snow.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I'm not sure why it's initially so warm though, all of the well entrenched cold air just gets up and leaves, it would put up more of a fight than that, which would probably lend to more of mixed precip event over straight snow.

Both GFS and Euro are showing that. I wonder if it'll correct itself as it gets closer. And that correction may very well include the storm disappearing. Wouldn't be the first time. It is 8 days out after all.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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You guy doing play-by-play comments on a d9 storm crack me up. It's not worth more than a passing mention at this range. Thus why AFD's usually won't waste more than that AMT of time on it.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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You guy doing play-by-play comments on a d9 storm crack me up. It's not worth more than a passing mention at this range. Thus why AFD's usually won't waste more than that AMT of time on it.

The reason they don't mention it is because it's outside of their 7-day window. A few forecasters go beyond that but not many.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Hey Tom! What's your thoughts on the 17th to 21st period...hope to do some sledding up north. Wondering if that's the pullback period or still downright frigid. That is for any input!

I think the farther north you go your going to be safe from any big thaw.  Climo at this time of year is usually when its the coldest anyhow.  It could get stormy around this period though so something to keep an eye on.  I'll keep you in mind when I dive in deeper later in the month.

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My goodness, what an active wave train in the N PAC up into the Aleutians/Bearing Sea over the nex 10 days!  12z EPS has 3 significant storms taking almost an identical path straight up from the N/C PAC into the central Bearing Sea.  You can't script it better than that and may likely translate to a very active second half of January.  GEFS are also indicating a similar look.

 

 

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OAX is very excited about the long term obviously. They put awesome effort into the long term AFD.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017

The extended period looks cold and dry with highs in the teens.
However, there is hope on the horizon with highs back into the mid
20s to lower 30s by next Saturday.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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My highs for next week just keep getting colder and colder and colder. There is a good chance that my highs could remain below zero much of the day and lows approaching all time record cold, which could be in the -20s. For sure -10s. Real feel if there is wind could be dangerously cold. This coldwave could surpass 13-14' cold.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not going above freezing anytime soon. Wow. Here is a record likely to be broken for Detroit........

 

Per NOAA:

With increased confidence regarding sub-20
degree temperatures on Wednesday, Detroit will have a shot at
breaking the record for number of consecutive days where max
temperature achieved on 02/02/1936 and again on 02/18/1979.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Euro has a weaker storm for here but colder temps so it evens out here. May be even better cuz it would add onto our current snowpack instead of the current snowpack melting first.

 

Okay, maybe I'm speaking too soon. Now it's showing as an Ozark special. I'll keep editing this post as the run continues.

 

At hour 198, the snow literally splits and goes AROUND my county both to my North and my South. That's actually hilarious.

 

I'm done watching, but I'll say it's better to be North of the bullseye of a potential system this far out than on the bullseye.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Euro has a weaker storm for here but colder temps so it evens out here. May be even better cuz it would add onto our current snowpack instead of the current snowpack melting first.

 

Okay, maybe I'm speaking too soon. Now it's showing as an Ozark special. I'll keep editing this post as the run continues.

 

At hour 198, the snow literally splits and goes AROUND my county both to my North and my South. That's actually hilarious.

 

I'm done watching, but I'll say it's better to be North of the bullseye of a potential system this far out than on the bullseye.

why are you getting caught up in specifics this far out?  Just be thankfull the storm is still there 

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In other news; it's -2 and i'm seeing some very light snow, it's amazing seeing the low level clouds zipping by with the moon shining through! The next couple of days could bring temps around here that we haven't seen in quiet some time. Lows below zero would be the first one I can remember. Although I do recall the outbreak of Jan. 1996 that brought about a 40 degree temp drop in like 3 hours. I think the next day we experienced below zero highs. Regardless, we will have a cold start to the new year! 

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Screen Shot 2017-12-31 at 12.55.03 AM.png

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why are you getting caught up in specifics this far out? Just be thankfull the storm is still there

I'm not. Just mentioning every model trend. That's literally why I said it's better to appear screwed by a potential storm this far out than cash in. If I got excited by being in a 20" bullseye 8 days out, then I'd be an idiot.

 

Besides, why are you of all people telling me to be thankful?

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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In other news; it's -2 and i'm seeing some very light snow, it's amazing seeing the low level clouds zipping by with the moon shining through! The next couple of days could bring temps around here that we haven't seen in quiet some time. Lows below zero would be the first one I can remember. Although I do recall the outbreak of Jan. 1996 that brought about a 40 degree temp drop in like 3 hours. I think the next day we experienced below zero highs. Regardless, we will have a cold start to the new year! 

Stay warm my friend!  Even though we are not getting as cold as you guys out there, we still may break or tie a record low tonight and a record low high for tomorrow.  The prolong stretch of this cold is something else.  I just had this feeling back in Oct when those strong early Autumn HP's centered themselves over the Plains you guys would be experiencing some frigid air this winter.  Happy New Year bud!

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IF the GEFS Strat forecats are correct, along with the N PAC pattern over the next 2 weeks, this month may end up significantly colder than expected.  The forecasted behavior in the models of the Polar Vortex reminds me vividly of what we saw in Jan '14.  Models keep trending colder in the extended and we are also seeing high lat blocking which is a bonus element into the pattern going forward.  The CFSv2 weeklies may be beginning to trend colder for Week 3-4 as the model is suggesting a warm PDO/warm ring of waters in the N PAC.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171231.201801.gif

 

 

 

Here is the last run for Jan...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20171231.201801.gif

 

 

See the trends...warm temps along the west coast up into NW NAMER...I recall seeing the same flips in the model for Jan '14...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201801.gif

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Stay warm my friend! Even though we are not getting as cold as you guys out there, we still may break or tie a record low tonight and a record low high for tomorrow. The prolong stretch of this cold is something else. I just had this feeling back in Oct when those strong early Autumn HP's centered themselves over the Plains you guys would be experiencing some frigid air this winter. Happy New Year bud!

Thanks man, happy new year to you too! Thanks for all you do Tom, I always look forward to reading your posts, you do an awesome job! Which by the way, where you ever going to major in Weather or is it just a side passion?? I started off majoring in it but the math was too hard for me.....

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Thanks man, happy new year to you too! Thanks for all you do Tom, I always look forward to reading your posts, you do an awesome job! Which by the way, where you ever going to major in Weather or is it just a side passion?? I started off majoring in it but the math was too hard for me.....

I appreciate that!  Years ago, when I was just a kid, watching Tom Skilling on WGN and also TWC, the weather became a fascination to me.  It was not until 4 or 5 years ago where I became very curious of the climate and how it all works together.  Until recently, I became overwhelmed by the majesty of the weather and climate around the globe and how it impacts our lives.  My intentions are to work on some peculiar plans in this field in the years to come, but first, I need to finish getting our companies project off the ground and running in 2018 as we anticipate to come out of the gates roaring.  At least, that is the plan...

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I appreciate that!  Years ago, when I was just a kid, watching Tom Skilling on WGN and also TWC, the weather became a fascination to me.  It was not until 4 or 5 years ago where I became very curious of the climate and how it all works together.  Until recently, I became overwhelmed by the majesty of the weather and climate around the globe and how it impacts our lives.  My intentions are to work on some peculiar plans in this field in the years to come, but first, I need to finish getting our companies project off the ground and running in 2018 as we anticipate to come out of the gates roaring.  At least, that is the plan...

Well good luck to you and keep the posts coming!! 

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