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January 2018 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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I see this is a quality discussion about meteorology and how it over the coming weeks will affect members across the board.

This is why I hate when they complain. It’s not about meteorology etc it’s them whining about models that will change before the storm hits. It makes the board look bad when guests are reading it

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This is why I hate when they complain. It’s not about meteorology etc it’s them whining about models that will change before the storm hits. It makes the board look bad when guests are reading it

And you responding to us out in the open, in the main weather thread doesn't look bad? I tried to move this to the complaints thread but to no avail.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Let me just say this for the record. Yes models will change and maybe they'll throw a decent curveball towards us for once. So calling it quits after a bad 12z suite 5 days out really isn't smart. But when people start acting like we're entitled for wanting something decent to hit us for once and start generally attacking posters from NE for things that happened in the past and have nothing to do with the present situation, I'll speak out like I obviously have been. People from outside of here have little to no room to talk to us in a negative manner when we respond poorly to a model run. A good season for us used to be 30", maybe even 35". Now a good season for us is just above average. I have yet to find one weather enthusiast from here who would not give an arm and a leg for an above average season. Now let's all just continue watching the models and be respectful towards the people on this forum.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The best way to stop the complaining is to NOT respond to those that complain, and set your setting to ignore the complainers. If no one responds and no one sees the compalints, its like they don’t exist. You can’t control the weather, but you can control the complaining.

Ditto, and I'm gonna add something on. It's okay to show emotion. Really, it is. As long as you're not flat out forecasting based off of emotion a la Snowlover in December, expressing frustration in the form of one post is not something to get worked up about.

 

Also, if you're ignoring someone, consider who it is. If it's someone who does nothing but nonstop complain, or nonstop wishcast then complain about the wishcast not working out, then yeah probably best to ignore them. But if it's someone who does nothing but speak the 100% truth, it's hard to blame them.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I ignored all the Nebraska posters. It's really annoying hearing them complain more than anyone else, when most of us are in the same situation. I haven't used my snowmobile in two and a half years, because there's been no snow and I haven't been able to travel. We get it, we know NE has had horrible winters since 2014, so have most of us. Stop whining and talk about meteorology.

Badgers suck.

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This is why I hate when they complain. It’s not about meteorology etc it’s them whining about models that will change before the storm hits. It makes the board look bad when guests are reading it

Not all of us have had snowy winter after snowy winter. Last decent winter around here was 2009. I'd like to see you go that long.

 

 

Jerk

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18z is better for us. Even though it's majority liquid rain, we need precip. With quite a bit of cloud cover on Wednesday too, we can hold out hope that maybe models are overdoing it on temps. Even a 4 degree difference of the high on Wednesday can mean an additional 2" of snow here later on.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I've not set anyone to ignore. Personally, as a snowSTORM lover, and a annual snowfall geek I totally get Neb peeps's disappointments and frustrations. It's horrid enough to endure such a long streak in the winter doldrums, but the repeated model teasings may be the worst! In their situation, having the storm shown then yanked out of reach just at the threshold of hope is cruelty by lame technology. Better to not be flashed hope than to have the rug constantly pulled out from underneath. I'm the poster/member with the least to complain about, but for all the differences from last winter, synoptically and snow amount wise, there's been too many parallels for my liking. Things could change in tracks, so I'll be patient despite the pending thaw.

 

On a positive note, I'm struck by how fresh my 5" depth here in Marshall looks. No doubt due to staying so drastically cold. Hit -11F again last night but a sunny 12 degs made for a solid mid-winter setting.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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No, the GEM has been terrible. GFS actually hasn’t been bad.

In most cases this season, GEM has actually outperformed GFS, that's how bad GFS has been. In this one instance, I think GFS has the edge. GEM has the low in Northern Kansas, not too unreasonable, but it completely splits off the precip into the Black Hills region instead of closely following the low, which actually makes sense.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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If the 00z suite moves North then I'm throwing in the towel. 12z was the first real bad suite we've had for both major models. Hard to call it quits after just one shift North as the models have been rather back and forth about this.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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@ Tom

 

I don't get the paid Euro data. Was hoping you might confirm or deny this person's take..

 

 

"GEM and Euro especially flashing a major winter storm next weekend. That is going to be a big winter storm and comes right from the S with a strong northern branch dropping in. All that warmth being shown and off past next weekend could be altered by that storm.."

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If the 00z suite moves North then I'm throwing in the towel. 12z was the first real bad suite we've had for both major models. Hard to call it quits after just one shift North as the models have been rather back and forth about this.

 

Have a feeling they GFS won't budge much but the Euro might do something crazy since it's been all over the freaking place. It's looking more likely that cold will settle in through at least Monday, so it'll be real ugly if we can't at least get an inch or two.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Doubt it happens, but sure is funny how they hype a phased storm that brings warm rain, but down play a synoptic storm when snow is expected

Glad I'm not the only one noticing total random bs from GRR when it comes to non-LES events!

 

This guy is near Grand Haven iirc

 

"The good ol' warministas of GRR are still honing in on freezing drizzle, despite models showing us getting several inches of snow here. (Looks like some lake enhancement?) I sure wish the northern and southern waves could phase together. Well, even if we do get some freezing rain, it could be a positive in preserving the snowpack more during the late week thaw."

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Glad I'm not the only one noticing total random bs from GRR when it comes to non-LES events!

 

This guy is near Grand Haven iirc

 

"The good ol' warministas of GRR are still honing in on freezing drizzle, despite models showing us getting several inches of snow here. (Looks like some lake enhancement?) I sure wish the northern and southern waves could phase together. Well, even if we do get some freezing rain, it could be a positive in preserving the snowpack more during the late week thaw."

How much snow is in your forecast? I am in the 1-3"+ range followed by freezing drizzle.

 

Btw: your lake enhancement should be winding down since your part of the lake has almost frozen up, no?!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently @ 0F. Going down to -10F. Brrr.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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How much snow is in your forecast? I am in the 1-3"+ range followed by freezing drizzle.

 

Btw: your lake enhancement should be winding down since your part of the lake has almost frozen up, no?!

 

Less than 1/2" LOL. What once was supposed to be a big storm. Youre joking! Lake is wide open..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wednesday Night

A chance of rain before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 10pm and 11pm, then snow likely after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Blustery.
Thursday
A chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Blustery.

OAX is thinking that the rain to snow changeover will take place before midnight. This is in huge contrast to the models which show it being after 6am. If it were to happen before midnight, we may look at WSW snows. Sadly, I think they are wrong.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Less than 1/2" LOL. What once was supposed to be a big storm. Youre joking! Lake is wide open..

Its too bad the phase will not happen. Would have been another nice snowevent. Darn it! :wacko: ;)

 

Wow....okay. Should be easing up soon. They are saying that a lot of the lakes have frozen up.

 

Per TWC:

Cloudy with snow showers in the evening and steady snow likely after midnight. Low 21F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Day 3 without snowfall and I'm having withdrawals,lol

 

Strange how a pattern can set in and even tho amnts were often tiny, it becomes familiar and "the norm" as they say. I think it was Dec of '92 that Traverse recorded measurable snow all 31 days! Now that's a pattern. Was only my 2nd year there so I thought it was fantastic!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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There will be a lot of record lows broken tanite. No winds, clear skies and a snowcover will do the job.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Its too bad the phase will not happen. Would have been another nice snowevent. Darn it! :wacko: ;)

 

Wow....okay. Should be easing up soon. They are saying that a lot of the lakes have frozen up.

 

Per TWC:

Cloudy with snow showers in the evening and steady snow likely after midnight. Low 21F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

GRR seems to be riding the NAM train that is the most aggressive with warm air aloft, thus they're calling for more ZR than snow. We will see. The early Dec cold gave up easily, but this is another scenario entirely.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

I don't get the paid Euro data. Was hoping you might confirm or deny this person's take..

 

 

"GEM and Euro especially flashing a major winter storm next weekend. That is going to be a big winter storm and comes right from the S with a strong northern branch dropping in. All that warmth being shown and off past next weekend could be altered by that storm.."

Yes, it has the look of a GOMEX Low and shoots straight north. Euro control has it also with a 6-12” stripe through IL/IN/MI. Although it’s nice to look at, its to far out to get excited.

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