January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Hoosier]

Its too bad the phase will not happen. Would have been another nice snowevent. Darn it!

 

Wow....okay. Should be easing up soon. They are saying that a lot of the lakes have frozen up.

 

Per TWC:

Cloudy with snow showers in the evening and steady snow likely after midnight. Low 21F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

It would pretty much take an act of God to entirely freeze Lake Michigan. You can get a lot of ice buildup for sure but there will still be some open water to work with.

[Niko]

It would pretty much take an act of God to entirely freeze Lake Michigan. You can get a lot of ice buildup for sure but there will still be some open water to work with.

True. Its a big lake (Third largest Great Lake). I wonder if it has ever frozen up entirely.

[Niko]

Temps are dropping rapidly. Currently @ -11F.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Latest NAM seems more south tonight with the low.

[jaster220]

There will be a lot of record lows broken tanite. No winds, clear skies and a snowcover will do the job.

  

True. Its a big lake (Third largest Great Lake). I wonder if it has ever frozen up entirely.

Pellston had -32F this morning - shades of '94

 

If not completely, it has come close in 1963 and 1979. 2014 was a threat to freeze over, and many believed satellite data saying it was, but I drive along the lake everyday after work and the shore ice never extended more than a mile out. Freezing over is never a concern if you ask me. Erie on the other hand is mostly ice/slush covered and has frozen over by Christmas once

[jaster220]

Latest NAM seems more south tonight with the low.

Looks better here for tomorrow as well. Mostly snow with a few hrs of mix. Prolly why GRR doubled my snow to .99" from .49"

 

RGEM looks robust! Would love to see it hand the 12k a resounding defeat. Just to mess with my WFO if for no other reason

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Honestly nam was way more north earlier but its aligning more with the gfs now.

[Minny_Weather]

Honestly nam was way more north earlier but its aligning more with the gfs now.

It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow when it's on top of us.

[Niko]

Currently @ -12F.

[Minny_Weather]

Currently @ -12F.

My God you guys are really in the deep freeze!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Currently seems like the cold air is pushing through faster on this run.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

And seems like there is a little bit more emphasis on the northern stream this run, time will tell though and I could be wrong lol. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I am liking this GFS run for Central Nebraska.

[Minny_Weather]

Currently seems like the cold air is pushing through faster on this run.

Yeah and that works to our advantage as this run looks a bit more progressive and ever so slightly more North. If the cold air comes in quicker, we'll have to worry less about storm track. Every run of every model has shown good QPF for us, some are just showing more rain than others. With the way GFS looks, our changeover could happen before 3am.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Holy crap I was right! This looks great!

 

[Grizzcoat]

Significant shift on GFS -- especially for Central IA...

[Minny_Weather]

YAHOO there's the curveball!

 

Now let's watch it go away by 12z tomorrow.

[Minny_Weather]

Not too excited just yet. It's one run of the GFS. The Euro has overall been heartbreak after heartbreak for this storm. Let's see if it can do some good stuff with the 00z data.

 

But lordy wouldn't it be epic if what GFS is showing turned out to be correct. It would give me one more week to finish my classwork.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice look for many in Nebraska.

[Grizzcoat]

Canadian mainly affects W.NE and MN

[Minny_Weather]

Canadian mainly affects W.NE and MN

I'm tossing the Canadian in the trash for this storm. The placement of the precip compared to the SLP makes absolutely no meteorological sense.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is still liking the idea of maybe the remnants of a Pac NW storm getting here and bringing some light snow Friday as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

[jaster220]

Holy crap I was right! This looks great!

 

If nothing else, you guys have scored some of the best eye-candy runs of the season. Perhaps things have turned a corner after all

[Minny_Weather]

Image.png

I think Kuchera is gonna be null and void for this storm. The wind will be whipping like crazy so I think that'll do enough to bring ratios down closer to 10:1.

[hlcater]

That was a sizable jump SE that run. Sounds like the Canadian is finally warming up to the idea of a storm as well. Thread time?

[Niko]

My God you guys are really in the deep freeze!

Bone-chilling!!!  Lows dipping in the mid to upper -teens.

[Minny_Weather]

That was a sizable jump SE that run. Sounds like the Canadian is finally warming up to the idea of a storm as well. Thread time?

I wouldn't be opposed to starting a thread. By the looks of it it's almost 100% certain that someone on here is gonna see a nice amount of snow.

[Grizzcoat]

Will be interesting what the UKIE does. It's been more on the side of the Euro with this system.

[Niko]

Hope ya guys score big! Lets go Plains!

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE appears to be not biting on what the GFS has to offer. Still inline with EURO. I would expect the EURO to hold serve tonight.

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

And as far as a big sustained warmup-- the GFS through the 20th says "what sustained warm up"?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Dang thats a huge difference

[Minny_Weather]

I'm honestly skeptical of GFS's random dig South, especially considering it's the only run that has done that so far. I'm not going to live by that run. Grizz is right, Euro is probably going to keep true to its word.

 

These are two stubborn models.

[Grizzcoat]

JB mentioned the "cattle probe" of the SOI today as it is tanking.... You can clearly see the uptick in potential systems on long range models.

[clintbeed1993]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1712-110-111-possible-centralnorthern-plains-winter-storm/ Thread started since this is about all we will be talking about over the next several days.

[Minny_Weather]

31° on my balcony. First time I've been able to open the back passenger side door on my car since mid-December, it's been frozen shut since. Took the opportunity to wash my car, it's been extremely dirty. Later when it's in the upper 40s, I'll take down my Christmas lights. I don't mind this thaw to get some work done. Especially knowing a new snowpack is on the horizon.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 7^th   At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The record High for today is 63° set in 2008 the coldest maximum is +4° set in 1942

The record low is -15° set in 1988 the warmest minimum is 51° set in 2008

The biggest snow fall is 5.4” in 1962

The most on the ground is 20” in 1999

Last year the H/L was 15/7° there was 2.2” of snow fall and 2” on the ground.

[westMJim]

2016/17 vs 2017/18 snow fall total at Grand Rapids. So far this season Grand Rapids has recorded 36.7” of snow fall. Last season as of January 6^th the total here was 40.2” so this season continues to fall below last season that this point!