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January 2018 Observations and Discussions

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#1051
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:14 PM

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What does it have for Lincoln


3-4".

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1052
Tony

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:22 PM

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Another boring weather week coming up for our area. This winter is DOA
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#1053
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:27 PM

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At this range, the 12z EPS is indicating two pieces of energy with a lead wave going through the Dakotas/MN/U.P. and hinting at a secondary piece riding up towards the GL's.  BTW, this is almost very similar to how this past system looked at this range on the ensembles.  What eventually happened is the models weakened the lead wave and focused on the southern wave.  Coincidentally, today's 12z Euro op run flashed a similar outcome with a lead wave ejecting out and a secondary piece rounding the base of the trough and ejecting up into the GL's.  We are going to see a variety of solutions over the course of this upcoming week.

 

Meantime, 12z EPS trending colder and following the GEFS lead Week 1-2 with a more active/snowier pattern across our sub forum.


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#1054
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:49 PM

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OAX will likely issue an advisory for everyone South of Norfolk & West of the Missouri River in the upcoming package. Widespread 3-5" amounts looking very well possible.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1055
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:52 PM

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My forecast has multiple chances for snow next week. We will see how all of this pans out. That's the fun of this hobby.



#1056
snowstorm83

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:02 PM

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No indication of an advisory in the OAX AFD. I guess that settles it, we're getting buried tonight!



#1057
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:09 PM

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Oh yeah, I forgot. They don't look at current model runs, just the runs from the day before.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1058
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:12 PM

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The warm-up next weekend is looking like it may be pushing some 50s or at least near 50F w some wet weather.



#1059
centralweather44

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:15 PM

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OAX will likely issue an advisory for everyone South of Norfolk & West of the Missouri River in the upcoming package. Widespread 3-5" amounts looking very well possible.


Have been out and about and haven’t gotten a chance to look at models. How did NAM look?

#1060
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:24 PM

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It snowed nicely here from about 1 PM to 2 PM MDT, before relenting...probably in response to the recently passed local ordinance prohibiting snow from continuing for more than 60 consecutive minutes.

 

About 2/10 of an inch accumulated; bringing the monthly total to 6/10ths of an inch and the seasonal total to 11.0 inches.

 

Heard of nickel and diming it?  This is a penny and a shilling...


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#1061
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:30 PM

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Have been out and about and haven’t gotten a chance to look at models. How did NAM look?

NAM was slightly lower, 2-3", but NAM has also been not good lately.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1062
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:34 PM

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Latest HRRR approaching 5" for Lincoln... Snowfall rates are expected to be light but it should fall throughout the night and flakes should be fat and fluffy. Not much wind to toss it around, either.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1063
Money

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:38 PM

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Latest HRRR approaching 5" for Lincoln... Snowfall rates are expected to be light but it should fall throughout the night and flakes should be fat and fluffy. Not much wind to toss it around, either.


Where do you see 5? I see 3.2 with the snow stopped
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#1064
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:47 PM

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Where do you see 5? I see 3.2 with the snow stopped

You looking at 10:1? Kuchera should be pretty accurate for this system. I'm on COD.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1065
Money

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:49 PM

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http://www.pivotalwe...18&r=us_c&dpdt=

#1066
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:51 PM

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Weird how it's completely different. 3-4" is a pretty accurate guess I'd think though. Snowfall throughout the night, while light, should produce about that much with the high ratios.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1067
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:06 PM

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HRRR is East compared to radar.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1068
snowstorm83

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:39 PM

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I figured the HRRR is probably overdone, but I still think up to 2" is still likely. 3-5" would be nice, but it was never really a legit possibility with this thing.



#1069
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:41 PM

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It snowed nicely here from about 1 PM to 2 PM MDT, before relenting...probably in response to the recently passed local ordinance prohibiting snow from continuing for more than 60 consecutive minutes.

 

About 2/10 of an inch accumulated; bringing the monthly total to 6/10ths of an inch and the seasonal total to 11.0 inches.

 

Heard of nickel and diming it?  This is a penny and a shilling...

 

Precipitation has moved back in; but now it is in the form of rain; (freezing rain, of course, as the temp is 23 F) but rain nonetheless.

 

A check of the current upper air chart shows that @ 925 mb SW SD is now above 0 C!  Perfect timing!

 

Misfortune...the kind of fortune that never misses!



#1070
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:02 PM

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I figured the HRRR is probably overdone, but I still think up to 2" is still likely. 3-5" would be nice, but it was never really a legit possibility with this thing.

I wouldn't say it's overdone yet. With high ratios, 11 hours of 10-20dBZ (or higher at times) radar readings would produce quite a bit. It would be fluff, however, and will probably compact down if it started to melt at all. Hopefully it won't be an issue tomorrow.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1071
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:43 PM

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Currently @ 11F.



#1072
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:15 PM

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Snowing here in Central Nebraska. Radar seems to have trended farther west of the models.

#1073
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:16 PM

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23Z HRRR did what I was afraid it would do. Shifted West to what current radar trends are doing. Still a decent amount for Lincoln, around 2-3", but doesn't bode well if it even a bit of that snow turns to liquid, as it will compact greatly.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1074
centralweather44

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:27 PM

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All the local Mets here in Lincoln calling for 1-2” tops

#1075
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:30 PM

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All the local Mets here in Lincoln calling for 1-2” tops

If I were them I'd go 1-3". A 2" roof is too low due to easy accumulations imo. Even the most conservative models are saying just under 2". South side of Lincoln, specifically the SW side has the largest accumulation potential.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1076
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:46 PM

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Really nice snow band coming through my county

#1077
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 05:41 PM

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Its a frigid 7F. Back in the deep freeze once again.



#1078
centralweather44

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:16 PM

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Radar isn’t looking good for eastern Nebraska right now. Looks like things are starting to fizzle out a bit already. Possibly hitting some dryer air? Dew point is only 6 here in Lincoln.

#1079
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:20 PM

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Radar isn’t looking good for eastern Nebraska right now. Looks like things are starting to fizzle out a bit already. Possibly hitting some dryer air? Dew point is only 6 here in Lincoln.

The DP is close enough to the actual temperature of 13 here that it won't be a problem. The problem is just storm track. I agree, it's not looking awesome for us. Looking like we won't start seeing precip till after midnight here. The bullseye that we were supposed to be in has shifted to Central Nebraska.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1080
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:41 PM

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Been snowing here for several hours. Looks like more coming from the northwest. I am surprised to say the least.
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#1081
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:53 PM

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 How did NAM look?

 

Pretty good...they've come a long way since the war ended.


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#1082
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:54 PM

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Been snowing here for several hours. Looks like more coming from the northwest. I am surprised to say the least.

Yeah, you stole it from us you thief.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1083
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:58 PM

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Precipitation has moved back in; but now it is in the form of rain; (freezing rain, of course, as the temp is 23 F) but rain nonetheless.

 

A check of the current upper air chart shows that @ 925 mb SW SD is now above 0 C!  Perfect timing!

 

Misfortune...the kind of fortune that never misses!

 

It snowed from about 6 PM to 7 PM MDT...I would say another 1/10 of an inch or so. 

 

I'm not in a hurry to measure; anyway...I do not know too many people who were accused of over reporting when they reported 0.1".


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#1084
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 07:05 PM

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It snowed from about 6 PM to 7 PM MDT...I would say another 1/10 of an inch or so. 

 

I'm not in a hurry to measure; anyway...I do not know too many people who were accused of over reporting when they reported 0.1".

 

I just noticed on my profile that I currently have 111 "likes"; my birthday is on 1/11; and at this moment I have 11.1" of snow on the season.

 

You can't make this stuff up...

 

Elton Musk (and a few others) have argued that life is nothing more than one big computer simulation that we are all trapped in...he might have a point.


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#1085
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 07:18 PM

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Yeah, you stole it from us you thief.


Sorry about that. The short term models have really struggled today. Our local forecast was basically flurries

#1086
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 13 January 2018 - 07:37 PM

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Nam and rap saying 1.5 inches. Ill take what i can get lol

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#1087
snowstorm83

Posted 13 January 2018 - 07:39 PM

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Snowing TINY wet flakes right now



#1088
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 07:46 PM

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Heaviest snow of the evening now falling. Radar just keeps reloading to the northwest.

#1089
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:14 PM

Tom

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-46F in Embarrass, MN this morning...ouch!!! 

 

DTeLlRWW0AU11wf.jpg



#1090
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:16 PM

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Even though the world's tiniest flakes are falling right now, I feel like we're in a good spot in Lincoln, the radar is building up in our favor pretty well. Right now, a dusting is on my "snowboard" a.k.a. car, 13.3*F.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1091
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:34 PM

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-46F in Embarrass, MN this morning...ouch!!! 

 

Kabetogama General Store -37 F 0700 AM 1/13

 

I shop there often...


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#1092
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:37 PM

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 Right now, a dusting is on my "snowboard" a.k.a. car, 13.3*F.

 

Make sure the engine is off...you wouldn't want any to melt.

 

Also, someone might get into it and drive away...


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#1093
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:58 PM

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Snowing harder, flakes are way bigger. 13.5*.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1094
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:59 PM

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0z GFS and Canadian both showing a potential storm for the Central Plains next Saturday-Sunday time frame. Canadian looks like a Colorado Low. Time will tell if it materializes or not.

#1095
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:02 PM

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Snowing harder, flakes are way bigger. 13.5*.

Great. Will be here soon.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#1096
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:02 PM

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0z GFS looks to get very active in the next week and beyond. I think this is what you have been talking about Tom.
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#1097
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:32 PM

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If what the ECMWF had at 12z and what the GFS now has at 0z; where I am would be looking at 10 - 20 inches of wind driven heavy snow starting Friday afternoon; which would go a long way towards making up for the sub-par winter thus far.

 

Note that the 12z ECMWF had some spots in this area with 35 inches of snow on the ground by Day 8.



#1098
bud2380

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:40 PM

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I think the last 12 Colorado lows have tracked directly through Iowa. It definitely feels that way anyway. Looks like another one about to do the same. Why can’t a low track through St Louis anymore??
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#1099
Hawkeye

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:49 PM

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I think the last 12 Colorado lows have tracked directly through Iowa. It definitely feels that way anyway. Looks like another one about to do the same. Why can’t a low track through St Louis anymore??

 

I don't have a great memory of past events, but it seems like there used to be plenty of systems that dropped a heavy snow band from the Texas Panhandle up through Iowa, but those type of systems have nearly gone extinct.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1100
Tabitha

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:57 PM

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I think the last 12 Colorado lows have tracked directly through Iowa. It definitely feels that way anyway. Looks like another one about to do the same. Why can’t a low track through St Louis anymore??

 

http://www.theweathe...therpapers/071/

 

During the dead of winter (January / early February) the odds are much higher for a suppressed track since climatologically the average position of the jet stream is as far south as it typically goes.


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