January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

10F currently after a morning low of -15F. Looks like milder air is trying to push in, finally. Some snow coming for later today w a swath of 2-3inches by Monday morning.

[Niko]

Looking forward to this brief Thaw coming later this week. It will feel great.

[WBadgersW]

Hopefully we get some rain soon. We've had more salt than snow this season. WASH IT AWAY PLEASE

[Tom]

Both the GEFS/EPS are trending with more high lat blocking Week 1-2 and I think this will likely create some interesting scenarios between the 17th-22nd.  At this range, the 12z EPS is "seeing" the potential large system around the 21st which not only fits the LRC, but the BSR as well.  There has been a notable trend in both GEFS/EPS that after the 21st/22nd period, more HP builds up in NW NAMER and the pattern will likely seed more cold down into the central Plains.  Where will the "fight" take place???  All I know, there will be a "cutter alley" across our sub forum Week 1-2.

[Niko]

My area is now under a WWA for 2-4"+.

 

Per NOAA:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO8 AM EST MONDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,  including during the morning commute on Monday. Total snow  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Monday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at  times.

[Niko]

I am seeing a lot of moisture streaming up from the south and heading to Chicago and points eastward towards the southern GL's region. We might be seeing an overachiever here w the moisture.

[Niko]

Remembering the Anniversary of the EC Blizzard of 96: 

 

January 6-8th, 1996.

 

 

Two cars remain sit buried in the snow as pedestrians walk on 21st Street in Philadelphia Monday, Jan. 8, 1996.

[jaster220]

Cautious eyes are on the Fri-Sat time-frame over this way. Could we see a similar set-up as we had with the Oct 23-24 system? Euro flashing bliz conditions gets the old storm radar perked up, that's for sure! First a little refresher tonight. Would love a solid 2" taking me back to 7" depth. Can we do it??? Climbed from 4-32 deg's attm. Very moist outside.

[FV-Mike]

Had about 2 hours of freezing rain and now its switch over to snow. everything is slick

[jaster220]

Was gone all day some of which was tubing at the ski area. What a blast I had with my teens! Looked and felt like a classic SMI winter day. Gray overcast, stiff winds, flurries and about 20F

[Tom]

Over a week ago, I suggested a cross polar flow pattern by mid month.  Tonight's 00z GFS is flashing a text book jet stream pattern that does exactly that...not only that, but the increasing amount of blocking is intriguing...

 

 

[Niko]

Cautious eyes are on the Fri-Sat time-frame over this way. Could we see a similar set-up as we had with the Oct 23-24 system? Euro flashing bliz conditions gets the old storm radar perked up, that's for sure! First a little refresher tonight. Would love a solid 2" taking me back to 7" depth. Can we do it??? Climbed from 4-32 deg's attm. Very moist outside.

This could be juicy!

[Grizzcoat]

To Tom's point above-- not a lot of "Thaw" in that kind of pattern shown on 00z GFS

[snowstorm83]

Yeah, GFS isn't excited about any type of thaw. Highest temperature on the whole run after Wednesday night for Lincoln is 29. That might be a bit overdone but still nothing even close to a real thaw.

[Tom]

I have a light glaze of ice and a coating of snow from the precip last night.  A bit slick out there this morning.  Tons of accidents across the roadways, esp farther south.  Meantime, we broke past the freezing mark for the first time last night.

 

00z EPS indicating a very strong signal for a large impactful lower lakes/OV cutter.  I think I'll start a separate thread for this one later this morning. 

[Tom]

Made me think of this exchange between Tom and I back in November:

 

BrianJK, on 24 Nov 2017 - 08:18 AM, said:

Yes, I believe this ridge is certainly an exhibit to the LRC and something we will have to look for in future cycles.  However, when you get deeper into the winter months (DJF), these ridges and troughs feedback very differently than the Spring/Summer months.  Let's say the LRC is a 60-day cycle and you are anticipating this long period of ridging to come back, say, end of January (aka January Thaw).  I could see the west/SW torch but if the blocking is prevalent and if the PV is split or severely disrupted, those are compensating factors that argue for cold or a major fight somewhere across our sub forum.

Brian, if the GEFS are right, this call may not be that far fetched after all.  There has been an increasing trend among both the GEFS/EPS ensembles for high lat blocking during the long awaited 17th-21st period.  Last night's 00z GEFS knife down the cold across the Plains during this period and a very sharp temp gradient sets up from the SW up towards the GL's.

Check out these maps below...they did NOT look like this several days ago...in fact, they have been steadily trending colder each run given the magnitude of the blocking.  Very interesting.  There will be some places on here who get buried over the next couple weeks.   

 

 

 

[Niko]

Still snowing w 3.1" so far. Could top off @ 4inches b4 it all ends later this morning. Nice appetizer, for sure.

[Tom]

Still snowing w 3.1" so far. Could top off @ 4inches b4 it all ends later this morning. Nice appetizer, for sure.

What do you have OTG now?

[Niko]

What do you have OTG now?

Close to 3.1". It is still snowing, so I could end up close to 3.5 to maybe 4".

 

Btw: I have a strong band to my west (heavy snow) which is making a b-line towards my area. That can easily drop an inch more. After that, I think the snow comes to an end.

[Tom]

Imagine the possibilities when this pattern cycles back through in Feb....with a deeper snow pack, one can only imagine...

 

[Niko]

I see no signs of a Thaw, maybe on Thursday and that's all. Next week looks brutal w more snow chances.

[Tom]

I'm starting to become more convinced that the second half of January is going to deliver the goods and there could be some big time hits starting around the 21st (give or take a day or two).  N PAC pattern as dominating as its been all season long.  This storm track across the Aleutians/Bearing Sea screams cutter's across our sub forum.  Who will cash in???  Best guess at this juncture, I would place the central Plains in the most favorable location up towards the western GL's early, then spreads east later.

 

 

[Tom]

Close to 3.1". It is still snowing, so I could end up close to 3.5 to maybe 4".

 

Btw: I have a strong band to my west (heavy snow) which is making a b-line towards my area. That can easily drop an inch more. After that, I think the snow comes to an end.

I meant how much snow do you have total on the ground???  What is your base???

[Niko]

I meant how much snow do you have total on the ground???  What is your base???

7-9"

[Tom]

7-9"

Not to shabby....your snow pack should fair well even if it does warm up this week briefly.

[Madtown]

Man to cxl or not. This 11th storm needs to deliver 5in or it's time.

[Niko]

Not to shabby....your snow pack should fair well even if it does warm up this week briefly.

No complaints.....how much snowpack do you have otg now?

[Niko]

Currently @ 32F w moderate snow falling. Man, it feels balmy outside.

[Tom]

No complaints.....how much snowpack do you have otg now?

Barely 2", of which, will be gone by Wed...then I'll take my Christmas lights down...

[Niko]

Barely 2", of which, will be gone by Wed...then I'll take my Christmas lights down...

I think you should do well w the weekend storm.  Speaking of Christmas lights, Thursday might be a good time for me also to take them down. My highs are projected to be in the 40s, briefly.

[Tom]

I think you should do well w the weekend storm.  Speaking of Christmas lights, Thursday might be a good time for me also to take them down. My highs are projected to be in the 40s, briefly.

This one has my interests heightened, but I'm a little worried of being missed to the east...

[westMJim]

   Here at my house I received 2.5” of wet snow last night.  And now I have 9.5” on the ground. So far this winter season compared to last season. So far this winter season has been colder but here in Grand Rapids we continue to have less total snow fall. This season the total as of January 7^th is 37.1” while last season it was 42.4”

[Minny_Weather]

I'm taking my lights down tomorrow probably. I would normally take them down on new years but I didn't for obvious reasons.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 8^th    At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is 31/18°

The record high is 59° set in 1965 the coldest maximum is 9° set in 1942

The record low is -13° set in 1988 the warmest minimum is 40° in 2008

The largest snow fall is 5.2” set in 2015

The mot snow on the ground is 20” in 1999

Last year the H/L was 18/8 and there was 3” of snow on the ground.

[Niko]

This one has my interests heightened, but I'm a little worried of being missed to the east...

That is a possibility, but I am assuming you get some accumulating snows, at least.

 

FWIW: its only Monday and my forecasters feels very definite giving me an 80% chance for heavy snow and wind Friday and Saturday. Get this, they are calling for 1-3 for Friday, 5-8 Friday night and 3-5" for Saturday . I am shocked at how confident they feel so early. I am expecting that these totals will lessen up bit, no?  

[Niko]

   Here at my house I received 2.5” of wet snow last night.  And now I have 9.5” on the ground. So far this winter season compared to last season. So far this winter season has been colder but here in Grand Rapids we continue to have less total snow fall. This season the total as of January 7^th is 37.1” while last season it was 42.4”

We are at the same camp. My accumulations are roughly the same, give or take (7-9" range).

[Tom]

That is a possibility, but I am assuming you get some accumulating snows, at least.

 

FWIW: its only Monday and my forecasters feels very definite giving me an 80% chance for heavy snow and wind Friday and Saturday. Get this, they are calling for 1-3 for Friday, 5-8 Friday night and 3-5" for Saturday . I am shocked at how confident they feel so early. I am expecting that these totals will lessen up bit, no?

You've been the jack pot zone thus far, why not???  Good luck...

[gabel23]

I'm taking my lights down tomorrow probably. I would normally take them down on new years but I didn't for obvious reasons.

Got all mine taken down yesterday! Glad I did! 

[Niko]

You've been the jack pot zone thus far, why not???  Good luck...

Thanks

[Niko]

Snow has ended. Temps are @ 32F w cloudy skies.