January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[hlcater]

12z GFS showing 6-12” in Chicago and NW IN from the clipper...nice

Looks like LEHS is gonna set up favorably for you, I'm hoping we can still steal an every so slight hop to the SE with this.

[Niko]

Its 52F here In SEMI and w a little sunshine to go along w it. Sweet!

[Tom]

Looks like LEHS is gonna set up favorably for you, I'm hoping we can still steal an every so slight hop to the SE with this.

These situations are one of the most ideal set ups to look for with a clipper around here and I’m happy to see the run to run consistency.

[jaster220]

In a winter where most of us are desperate for any snow and you’re gonna LOL our ‘fluff’? Haha. Come on man.

 

If fluff works for ya, great!    I'd take 8:1 any day over 20:1 ...but that's just cuz I'm weird I guess. Certainly seem to be in a vast minority wrt that 

[Niko]

It is certainly gettin windy out there. Everything flying around. Very strong CF coming. Currently @ 53F.

[westMJim]

NEW RECORD HIGH FOR GRAND RAPIDS!!!

With the latest reading of 57° Grand Rapids has officially broke the record for the warmest January 11^th on record. Also a new record high at Saginaw of 56° and Alpena with 51° Flint is tied at 56° there could be more records broken before the day is over. Later on tonight we will have to see how fast it cools down as several record warm minimums are also in play 

[Niko]

55F currently and windy w cloudy skies. Feels super out there. Bring it!

[james1976]

Hows Euro looking for MLK clipper?

[Niko]

NEW RECORD HIGH FOR GRAND RAPIDS!!!

With the latest reading of 57° Grand Rapids has officially broke the record for the warmest January 11^th on record. Also a new record high at Saginaw of 56° and Alpena with 51° Flint is tied at 56° there could be more records broken before the day is over. Later on tonight we will have to see how fast it cools down as several record warm minimums are also in play 

Do you know what the All-Time record high is for Grand Rapids, MI?! or was that an all time record?

[westMJim]

Do you know what the All-Time record high is for Grand Rapids, MI?! or was that an all time record?

That is the record for January 11^th daily weather records go back to 1894 at Grand Rapids.  at Lansing they go all the way back to 1864. And At Detroit they go back to 1874. It looks like January 11^th 1890 was warmer than today as the temperature reach 66 in Detroit and 63 in Lansing. The all time record high at Grand Rapids for the month of January is 66 on January 25^th 1950. 

[jaster220]

Hit 58F in Marshall - likely a record. Can we please stop the roller coaster? I want off...oh wait, too late anyways. The bottom of the next hill's gonna feel horrible! From April to Arctic in a day - uggh!

[hlcater]

Back to all snow again, looking at radar trends and CC, should stay that way.

[Niko]

That is the record for January 11^th daily weather records go back to 1894 at Grand Rapids.  at Lansing they go all the way back to 1864. And At Detroit they go back to 1874. It looks like January 11^th 1890 was warmer than today as the temperature reach 66 in Detroit and 63 in Lansing. The all time record high at Grand Rapids for the month of January is 66 on January 25^th 1950. 

Okay!.......Looks like I wont be reaching record territory, but, I'll take this warmth. Feels good out there.

[jaster220]

@ Hawkeye

 

Those dark blues deliver anything over your way? 

[Hawkeye]

We're pretty much done.  There is a 0.3" layer of crusty sleet on the pavement.  We finished with some light snow, but it didn't amount to anything.

[jaster220]

We're pretty much done.  There is a 0.3" layer of crusty sleet on the pavement.  We finished with some light snow, but it didn't amount to anything.

 

Sorry to hear...MLK Clipper has eyes for E Iowa tho, eh? Clippers have been the way to go so far. Hope you score good again.

[shakjen]

Temp was 57 at 1:00, it is now 30!!

[WBadgersW]

I'm currently sitting on 4.9" for the season. Impressive to say the least!

[jaster220]

Like someone threw gas onto our snowpack a lit a match!   #sad

 

[Minny_Weather]

We have a legit shot at three different measurable clippers over the next four days. We can't miss ALL of them, right?

 

 

 

Right?

[Minny_Weather]

Windy still but the snow isn't blowing around anymore. 16.2*F on the balcony. Wind chill still in the negatives.

[Tony]

Hows Euro looking for MLK clipper?

18z GFS just went a little north so is this the start of something bad....maybe. Just the way its been this winter. 12z Euro was north as well

[Minny_Weather]

GFS brings a storm thru here around Day 9! Therefore, it'll happen.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

D**n more storms to track and be disappointed over..im so looking forward to this!

[Madtown]

So that last one didn't work out. 2.5" (Boulder Jct) ain't gonna help the trails. What's the long range looking into mid Feb. Looking at rebooking.

[Tom]

So that last one didn't work out. 2.5" (Boulder Jct) ain't gonna help the trails. What's the long range looking into mid Feb. Looking at rebooking.

Much better choice if you have the opportunity to do so...I think it'll be more wild than mild that's for sure...

[Tom]

MLK Holiday Clipper thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1716-mlk-holiday-clipper/

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011200/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Minny_Weather]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011200/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

Keep it in your pants. Clippers hate us.

[OKwx2k4]

If fluff works for ya, great! I'd take 8:1 any day over 20:1 ...but that's just cuz I'm weird I guess. Certainly seem to be in a vast minority wrt that

I'm from Oklahoma so sometimes just snow is good enough. It's just really hard to get good snow and be much over 10:1 ever. Lol. I'm lucky to get 2:1 some winters.

[Tom]

Its not often you see the GFS/EURO agreeing on a Big time -AO signal as we approach the period when the long awaited Jan Thaw takes place.  This will clearly be a player as to how strong the thaw actually ends up becoming and also drive the jet stream farther south.  Last nights 00z EPS continues to follow the GEFS trends of building more HP across Canada that bleeds south into the northern tier during this period and into the extended.  Is this high lat blocking legit???  If these trends hold, and the -NAO block also develops, well, this will produce an interesting pattern across our sub forum and quite possibly provide favorable west/east systems coming out of the Rockies.

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_ao_forecast.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gfs_ao_forecast.png

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_nao_2018011200.png

[Tom]

If we are to use the BSR/LRC as guidance, the second half of Jan, specifically beginning around the 21st and through the end of the month, should kick start an active pattern across our sub-forum   Does that mean NE will be the jack zone???  No, I'm not saying that...LOL, but does that mean opportunities will be there...yes!  I have had a lot of interest building for this period.  Specifically, the idea of how strong this Jan Thaw will really end up being.  I made a call over 2 months ago for this long awaited period and I'm very curious how it plays out.  Some of the driving forces that I have been looking for are indeed showing up on the models.  Could the thaw actually end up transient???

 

 

 

Check out the trends of the overnight 00z GEFS and clearly there are signals of a more seasonal look during this "thaw" period as there will be residual cold on the table to produce some wintry systems.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

If we are to use the BSR/LRC as guidance, the second half of Jan, specifically beginning around the 21st and through the end of the month, should kick start an active pattern across our sub-forum Does that mean NE will be the jack zone??? No, I'm not saying that...LOL, but does that mean opportunities will be there...yes! I have had a lot of interest building for this period. Specifically, the idea of how strong this Jan Thaw will really end up being. I made a call over 2 months ago for this long awaited period and I'm very curious how it plays out. Some of the driving forces that I have been looking for are indeed showing up on the models. Could the thaw actually end up transient???

 

 

 

Check out the trends of the overnight 00z GEFS and clearly there are signals of a more seasonal look during this "thaw" period as there will be residual cold on the table to produce some wintry systems.

I was going to ask you what you thought about that period. Euro Weeklies are showing a signal for a big trough pretty consistently for some time between the 25th and 29th.

[Tom]

I was going to ask you what you thought about that period. Euro Weeklies are showing a signal for a big trough pretty consistently for some time between the 25th and 29th.

Despite the torch look both the CFSv2/Euro weeklies have been showing for weeks on end, this period is prob going to turn out rather significant for the central CONUS.  As you know, I'm a big believer in the cyclical nature of our weather pattern and the aforementioned period your talking about is going to be interesting.

[Tom]

@ LNKWx, speaking of that period, just took a peak into the EAR and there is a system tracking in a SW/NE fashion across Japan which would correlate to watch for a storm coming out of the Rockies/SW during this period.  In fact, not only does it fit the EAR but it also over laps a storm system that fits the LRC.

[Minny_Weather]

@ LNKWx, speaking of that period, just took a peak into the EAR and there is a system tracking in a SW/NE fashion across Japan which would correlate to watch for a storm coming out of the Rockies/SW during this period. In fact, not only does it fit the EAR but it also over laps a storm system that fits the LRC.

Looks like a good share the wealth system for North Korea.

[Minny_Weather]

Sunday worries me. Only day till Thursday where we have the possibility of getting above freezing. If it does, let's hope the sun stays hidden. None of us here need any of the snowpack melted before the real cold arrives Monday.

[westMJim]

Boy I was supersized to wake up this morning to a solid half inch of snow cover. I went to bed with only a few snow piles around. Yesterday was the warmest January 11^th in recorded history here in Grand Rapids. With both the high of 58 and the low of 39 being new records for the date. By records at other locations that have kept records longer it looks like January 11^th 1890 was a warmer day across region. At this time I have a temperature of 24° with some very light snow falling and some blowing snow. 

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 12^th     At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is 31/18

The record high is 57° set in 2013 the coldest maximum is 8 in 1912

The record low is -14° in 1918 the warmest minimum is 39 in 2013

The biggest snow fall is 10.0” in 1918

The most on the ground is 22” in 1918

Last year the H/L was 36/24 there was 0.2” of snow fall reported and 0” on the ground.

[Minny_Weather]

Still have our grass with white stuff around it outside. -0.2*F on my balcony, but humidity and wind make it feel MUCH BETTER than that! Wind chill is -15*F. I stepped outside and when I breathed, it looked like I was vaping. That was the most I have ever been able to see my breath.