January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[hlcater]

Looks like a good share the wealth system for North Korea.

The "wealth" has been shared for over 50 years and counting!

[Minny_Weather]

The "wealth" has been shared for over 50 years and counting!

About as much wealth as the share the wealth clipper on MLK day.

[Niko]

Winds are howling w wcf in the upper single digits. Currently @ 21F. Brrrr. Very icy out there.

[bud2380]

I noticed the Euro has another Iowa rainmaker in the extended. Yeah!

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011212/192/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011212/216/sfcmslp.conus.png

[snowstorm83]

We might get just enough to cover the grass from the Sunday morning clipper, but I'm kind of worried about Sun. afternoon temps. If it gets above freezing, we could end up right back where we started and plunge into sub zero temps with a basically bare ground.

[Niko]

Down into the teens already and still falling. It will be a frigid night.

[Minny_Weather]

We might get just enough to cover the grass from the Sunday morning clipper, but I'm kind of worried about Sun. afternoon temps. If it gets above freezing, we could end up right back where we started and plunge into sub zero temps with a basically bare ground.

Sunday isn't too worrisome for me, especially if we do see fresh snow. Between that and cloud cover, we should stay below freezing. Even if we do creep above, once again there will be quite a bit of cloud cover so melting won't be accelerated.

[Niko]

Currently @ 12F and a wcf of -3F. Hard to believe that some places have a massive 24hour temp change from yesterday this time ( 35 to 45 degrees colder than last night).

[Madtown]

-3 with bare ground. little chilly out there!

[gosaints]

Potential for a snowpack destroyer.  

[Tom]

The Ice Box of the nation down to an insane -32F this morning...numbing cold!  Dipped down to a current low of +7F with brown grass.  Not fun!  

[Tom]

I know we have a lone member down near KY and by the looks of this map (might have sleet/ice taken into account) but it looks like he may have gotten some snow from yesterday's storm.  Would like to hear and see your reports if you have any.

 

 

The Chicago/MKE/STL split in full effect...#sacrcasm

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201801/nsm_depth_2018011305_National.jpg

[Tom]

Who wants to book a flight to the Alps???  Meters of snow have buried this region....

 

[Tom]

To put it into perspective, here is are Chicago's snow fall stats through today compared to last 5 years....

 

[Minny_Weather]

I thought the snow last night was gonna be too light to accumulate, but I woke up this morning to 0.2" of fluff on the sidewalks. Must have been in the past few hours, it looks & feels really fresh. Flurries are falling now. Actually a nice setting. Also doesn't hurt to have a 0.2" security blanket. 8.4*F on the balcony with a light North breeze.

[Minny_Weather]

Okay, I'm calling it 0.3", that's what it was on my "snowboard," a.k.a. the roof of my car. No real wind to toss it around. This is the fluffiest snow I have ever seen. Basically, take a bunch of dandelion fluff, put it on your car, and clear it off your car, that's literally how this snow is.

[Tom]

The long awaited Jan Thaw period (17th-21st) is fast approaching and there is a storm system at the tail end of this period to monitor that has been on my calendar for a few weeks now.  Why isn't this period going to be as warm as the models have been predicting for days and weeks???  I recall seeing the CFSv2 weeklies and Euro weeklies advertising blow torch warmth for this period in the extended and you could argue that it had merit.  However, one of the KEY ingredients in a season that from the beginning I felt there would be "surprises" or "busts" by the models are now not so surprising after all.  Sure, it is going to get warm (albeit a 2-3 day spike in temps) but it will be transient as has been the case this season.  The LRC's long term long wave trough/ridges have had ridges in the west/SW and in the East/SE.  So, here we are, within the Day 5-10 range and I'll show some maps of why I think it's valuable to use the LRC/BSR/EAR as long range pattern recognition tools.

 

Check out the Day 15 GEFS 500mb maps for the Jan 21st period of when I initially made a call over 2 weeks ago to look for a storm that would kick start an active pattern to close out January and should put an end to the "Jan Thaw" pullback.

 

 

Now look at the Day 9 GEFS 500mb map...pretty different wouldn't ya say???

 

 

 

Now, knowing this and the various long range forecasting tools I use I would expect the models to do the same with another system I'm looking for during the 24th-27th period.  You may ask yourself, what storm when the 00z GEFS last night are showing this????  The models clearly have missed the high lat blocking which is becoming a very clear signal and a missing ingredient we haven't seen all season long.  It has been an anticipated benefactor in a -QBO/Low Solar season.  Is it finally going to deliver?  In my opinion, I believe the best pattern of the season to produce winter storms is on the horizon.  Patience will pay off to those who are going to be in the vicinity of this storm track.

 

[westMJim]

It is mostly cloudy with some very light snow falling here with a temperature of 16° here at my house. There sure was a sharp cut off of the snow fall from SE to NW across the metro area, at the airport they reported 1.1” of snow fall, here at my house I recorded around a half inch and less than a mile to the west of me (I went to the bank there yesterday) there was not more than a trace of snow there with mostly bare ground. That is one of  the most noticeable differences I have seen in the GR metro area. Many times there is a big difference but most areas generally have several inches or more.

[westMJim]

Okay, I'm calling it 0.3", that's what it was on my "snowboard," a.k.a. the roof of my car. No real wind to toss it around. This is the fluffiest snow I have ever seen. Basically, take a bunch of dandelion fluff, put it on your car, and clear it off your car, that's literally how this snow is.

Now you kind of know what lake effect is like with cold temperatures. Years ago I used to live in the south side of Grand Rapids and drive to Holland ever night for a job I had there. One night in Holland from the time I started work to the time I got off Holland had over 20" of lake effect snow with the temperature of +5° At the time I drove a  Chevy Chevette and even with all that much snow I was not only able to drive out of the parking lot I was able to get home that night. Of course about a mile east of with I worked there was much less snow.

[Minny_Weather]

Now, knowing this and the various long range forecasting tools I use I would expect the models to do the same with another system I'm looking for during the 24th-27th period.  You may ask yourself, what storm when the 00z GEFS last night are showing this????  The models clearly have missed the high lat blocking which is becoming a very clear signal and a missing ingredient we haven't seen all season long.  It has been an anticipated benefactor in a -QBO/Low Solar season.  Is it finally going to deliver?  In my opinion, I believe the best pattern of the season to produce winter storms is on the horizon.  Patience will pay off to those who are going to be in the vicinity of this storm track.

Looks like a good scenario for here!

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 13^th      At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is 31/18

The record high is 58 set in 1932 the warmest maximum is +5° set in 1929

The record low is -5 in 2015 the warmest minimum is 43 set in 1932

The most snow fall is 10.5” in 1979

The most on the ground is 20” in 1918

Last year the H/L was 24/17 and there was no snow on the ground

[Minny_Weather]

Area of flurries is backbuilding. Looks like we're getting flurries for a while. Actually kind of pretty with the fresh sheet of snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Sure didn’t realize Chicago had such a meager amount of snow so far. Good luck Tom.

[Tom]

Sure didn’t realize Chicago had such a meager amount of snow so far. Good luck Tom.

Cutter season is about to ignite...I'm fired up about where this pattern is heading....good luck to you to buddy!

[hlcater]

Cutters are always a roll of the dice though, especially further east. MI peeps may get rain on their parade quite a lot of it comes into fruition.

[Tom]

Cutters are always a roll of the dice though, especially further east. MI peeps may get rain on their parade quite a lot of it comes into fruition.

Indeed, and that's what makes tracking storms fun and exciting.  There will be hits and misses in this sub forum and I'm already anticipating some angst.

[Minny_Weather]

Extremely light snow continues to fall. Decent sized flakes though. Really pleasant to look at.

[Tom]

A lot of peeps (including myself) on here are going to get sucked into a long week of tracking the storm showing up around the 21st.  I hope this time people cash in on a somewhat decent storm.  With all the blocking that will have developed and locked in during this period I don't expect a dud.

[Money]

Gem has it also but a tad farther north

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018011312&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=219

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is showing it on the 20th/21st here, but it's nothing big.

[Niko]

Nice warm-up coming by next weekend. Looking like 40s popping up for highs.

[Niko]

Currently @ 13F w deep blue skies and a nice snowcover to go w it.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Cmc has the storm too.

[Money]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018011312&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=365

 

D**n nearly every gfs ensemble has the system

[Minny_Weather]

A lot of this morning's snow has already sublimated. Flurries still but those should die down shortly. 16.9*F.

[Andrew NE]

I am happy for Gary Lezak's close followers around the KC area, I do read his blogs from time to time, but those people have been begging for snow and it never seems to materialize for them. It looks like they may score >1" which would end his snowfall contest.

[bud2380]

Euro has low pressure developing in CO at hour 168 and colder air starting to seep in from the north. Let’s see if it heads east or cuts due northeast like usual.

[Minny_Weather]

Dakotas special on Euro. That's good for Tabitha but nobody else on here. Maybe twin cities will catch the back side.

[bud2380]

Straight NE into central MN. It’s weird though because cold 850 temps encircle the surface low. You don’t see that often unless the low is occluding and stalling out. Whatever it’s 8 days out.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro has had an outrageous North bias recently. It'll head South.