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January 2018 Observations and Discussions

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#1251
gosaints

Posted Yesterday, 10:38 AM

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And then it goes all out blizzard between 144 and 168



#1252
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 10:39 AM

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Like all cutter systems, the placement of the HP to the north is going to be one of the important underlining factors where this system tracks.  Normally, I'd shy away from starting a thread but I'm convinced a storm is in the making.

 

And then it goes all out blizzard between 144 and 168

N/NW Wisco gets blasted with close to 2 feet!



#1253
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 10:42 AM

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GL's monster in the making???  Would be nice to see for many on here but we all know how much the Euro likes to amp storms up in the 5-7 range.



#1254
gosaints

Posted Yesterday, 10:42 AM

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GL's monster in the making???  Would be nice to see for many on here but we all know how much the Euro likes to amp storms up in the 5-7 range.

Yes



#1255
james1976

Posted Yesterday, 10:43 AM

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Like all cutter systems, the placement of the HP to the north is going to be one of the important underlining factors where this system tracks. Normally, I'd shy away from starting a thread but I'm convinced a storm is in the making.

N/NW Wisco gets blasted with close to 2 feet!

Yeah id say thread time. All models have been showing it for a few days now.
Im liking the stronger trends.

#1256
St Paul Storm

Posted Yesterday, 11:03 AM

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And then it goes all out blizzard between 144 and 168


You nervous being in the jackpot zone this early?

#1257
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted Yesterday, 11:06 AM

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Yeah id say thread time. All models have been showing it for a few days now.
Im liking the stronger trends.

I'd wait. Remember what happened last time? 5-6 days is a really long time, and plenty to trend into a turd. I'd wait until 12z tomorrow, but that may just be me.


2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.2"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 1.4")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#1258
bud2380

Posted Yesterday, 11:19 AM

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Euro 10:1 map

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_192.png


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#1259
bud2380

Posted Yesterday, 11:21 AM

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This was the 00z run; pretty solid shift SE.  Keep it coming. :) 

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_192.png


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#1260
gosaints

Posted Yesterday, 11:26 AM

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You nervous being in the jackpot zone this early?

Jack pot zone of one run 150 hours out... I would be nervous if this was 3 days out but not this range.  Heck could still turn into nothing



#1261
LNK_Weather

Posted Yesterday, 11:30 AM

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Yay! In the bullseye 6 days out. That usually ends up well.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#1262
GDR

Posted Yesterday, 11:36 AM

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I smell a southeast trend

#1263
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 11:47 AM

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12z EPS take the mean SLP from KC thru E IA/S WI and hit MSP up into NW/N Wisco in the jack zone...



#1264
Tony

Posted Yesterday, 11:52 AM

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12z EPS take the mean SLP from KC thru E IA/S WI and hit MSP up into NW/N Wisco in the jack zone...

I have a good feeling about this one for some odd reason. Not saying we will be in the jackpot zone but we should see accumulating snowfall of several inches, especially if it keeps inching south. Liking the slow movement of this.



#1265
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 12:07 PM

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I'd wait. Remember what happened last time? 5-6 days is a really long time, and plenty to trend into a turd. I'd wait until 12z tomorrow, but that may just be me.

 

Nah, just title it Jan 21-22 Little wimpy mouse-turd storm. It's all about the title, can't go wrong.. :lol:


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1266
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 12:08 PM

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EURO weaker south.  Thermals iffy.

 

Concrete

 

Shocker!  Lol, we asked for some pattern other than strong NW trenders


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1267
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 12:16 PM

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From a poster elsewhere..I thought there's going to be some blocking in play, no?

 

Teleconnections would favor a southern solution but there’s also lack of strong blocking to the north. Not really sure about this one. 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1268
gabel23

Posted Yesterday, 12:18 PM

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Bring on the southward shift! Just a little bit.....

Attached Files


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#1269
Money

Posted Yesterday, 12:26 PM

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I have a good feeling about this one for some odd reason. Not saying we will be in the jackpot zone but we should see accumulating snowfall of several inches, esp
cially if it keeps inching south. Liking the slow movement of this.


Same

#1270
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 12:27 PM

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12z EPS trends over the last 4 runs...missed the southern energy, ay???  It also is showing more separation from the lead wave across the north which would allow more HP to build across the north.

Attached Files



#1271
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 12:28 PM

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There will be a storm to track..no doubt about that.  Overwhelming support in the ensembles and my gut is telling me this one will deliver the goods to those who are lucky, esp knowing what its done in previous cycles. 



#1272
East Dubzz

Posted Yesterday, 12:31 PM

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Gimme a foot or gimme rain.

#1273
gosaints

Posted Yesterday, 12:32 PM

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There will be a storm to track..no doubt about that.  Overwhelming support in the ensembles and my gut is telling me this one will deliver the goods to those who are lucky, esp knowing what its done in previous cycles. 

Might as well start a thread..  Its what this thread will be filled with anyways.  I can only imagine the model tugging we will be doing with this one.  


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#1274
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 12:32 PM

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12z EPS trends over the last 4 runs...missed the southern energy, ay???  It also is showing more separation from the lead wave across the north which would allow more HP to build across the north.

 

Can I get a truckload of that ASAP?!? Thx


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1275
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 12:33 PM

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Gimme a foot or gimme rain.

 

Ehh, you'll golf in either, right? 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1276
gosaints

Posted Yesterday, 12:34 PM

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I dont like seeing the EPS that far NW.



#1277
Money

Posted Yesterday, 12:46 PM

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I dont like seeing the EPS that far NW.


You’re in great shape

#1278
St Paul Storm

Posted Yesterday, 12:50 PM

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Jack pot zone of one run 150 hours out... I would be nervous if this was 3 days out but not this range.  Heck could still turn into nothing


Haha. I’m just messing with you. People are so up and down 6 days out.

#1279
gosaints

Posted Yesterday, 12:52 PM

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Haha. I’m just messing with you. People are so up and down 6 days out.

Part of the fun right.. I have excepted it.  Snow weenie gonna snow weenie


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#1280
FV-Mike

Posted Yesterday, 12:53 PM

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With such a large sub this will definitely be a tug-a-war system. 



#1281
St Paul Storm

Posted Yesterday, 12:54 PM

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12z EPS take the mean SLP from KC thru E IA/S WI and hit MSP up into NW/N Wisco in the jack zone...


I’ve lost count how many times I’ve seen this 6 days out this winter.

#1282
Money

Posted Yesterday, 12:58 PM

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Part of the fun right.. I have excepted it.  Snow weenie gonna snow weenie


Yup

I think by Wed night we should start getting a better idea.

#1283
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 01:08 PM

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I’ve lost count how many times I’ve seen this 6 days out this winter.

Agree, but this time I think there is less confusion among the models as they seem to be closing in on 1 piece of energy coming out of the SW.  The last system had so many variables and pieces that wrecked havoc IMO.  This time around, there is less havoc to deal with and that's why I think this will be a different story.


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#1284
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 01:19 PM

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Late weekend storm threat thread....

 

http://theweatherfor...3-winter-storm/



#1285
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 04:01 PM

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On to some other news....cannot wait for some warmer weather by the weekend....Looking forward to some rain and temps in the 40s. Great opportunity to clean out the streets from all of that salt.

 

Btw: Month and  a half remaining until its March 1st. Ahhhhh, Meteorological Spring just around the corner.  :D



#1286
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 04:05 PM

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Currently, snow and a temp of 18F. Close to 3".



#1287
Hawkeye

Posted Yesterday, 04:08 PM

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I'm also looking forward to some warmer weather.  I've had enough of the frigid stuff for a while.  Still, I hope enough cold returns for the big storm.

 

There shouldn't be much left of our snow/ice by the weekend.  It will be nice to get the crusty sleet/ice layer off the pavement.  Most people didn't even bother shoveling it off.  Even I didn't do the entire driveway.


season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1288
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 04:49 PM

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Yup.....I've had enough of the cold as well. Speaking of cleaning the driveway from free of ice, I never add salt onto my pavement as this will damage my cement and create cracks down the road. All I do is use my snowblower and throw snow on my grass. :D



#1289
snowstorm83

Posted Yesterday, 06:02 PM

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LPS cancelling due to the cold tomorrow. Kind of surprised since it's not warning criteria cold.

#1290
LNK_Weather

Posted Yesterday, 06:13 PM

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LPS cancelling due to the cold tomorrow. Kind of surprised since it's not warning criteria cold.

Seriously? Just bundle up the kids. My god. They've gone to school in worse.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#1291
East Dubzz

Posted Yesterday, 06:38 PM

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Ehh, you'll golf in either, right?


I like the way you think :)

#1292
Tom

Posted Today, 04:26 AM

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I like the way the Euro weeklies are trending, esp out in the Plains/MW to close out the month.  Lot's of winter fun still on the table even if you miss out on the weekend storm.  Jan Thaw will be in full effect around here later in the week and likely wipe out the fluff we have received over the past couple days.  Yesterday, it snowed continuously all day long which I enjoyed on my day off.  It was a pleasantly cold/snowy mid-winter day in Chicago.  Can we have these more frequently please?



#1293
westMJim

Posted Today, 04:36 AM

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We will soon be on the road. The first part of the trip will with a lot of rush time traffic and lake snows. Here at my house picked up 4” of snow from midnight until cleared out the drive way. The good news is it’s very fluffy and easy to move. The temperature here is 15° with snow falling. We will be in Bowling Green KY tonight,



#1294
westMJim

Posted Today, 04:37 AM

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 Climatology for today January 16th  At Grand Rapids Mi

The average H/L 31/18

The record high is 58° in 1949 the coldest maximum is 9 in 1994

The record low is -16 in 1994 the warmest minimum is 39 in 1939

The most snow is reported as 5.5” in 1924

The most on the ground is 23” in 1979

Last year the H/L was 33/20 and there was no snow on the ground.



#1295
Tom

Posted Today, 04:55 AM

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Implications in the longer range to close out the month suggest to look for the cold to make another push and fight against the ridge.  Yesterday's Euro MJO still suggesting it to head into the Null Phase and is exactly why I noticed the WPO trend more negative and following the GFS lead (crazy to think).

 

 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

ecmwf_wpo_forecast.png