January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Money]

Straight NE into central MN. It’s weird though because cold 850 temps encircle the surface low. You don’t see that often unless the low is occluding and stalling out. Whatever it’s 8 days out.

The HP is there at least just need it to sag farther south

[Minny_Weather]

GEFS mean for us is 3". It's 8 days out. Now that does count tonight's clipper and tomorrow night's front, so about 1.5-2", but still a rather big number.

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR...

[Andrew NE]

HRRR...

You should do pretty good, I may be just to far east.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

HRRR...

More east then I thought. Maybe we can scoot this even further east over the OmaDome. lol

[Minny_Weather]

You should do pretty good, I may be just to far east.

Things definitely are trending that way. Every snow event recently has overperformed from what models were showing it as, too. We weren't supposed to get accumulations here last night.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The RAP model gives Omaha 2-3 inches....well ...I'll take it!

[Minny_Weather]

1.9" for OMA at the end of the HRRR run and still snowing.

[Niko]

Currently @ 17F w deep blue skies and some fair weather cumulus clouds.

[centralweather44]

1.9" for OMA at the end of the HRRR run and still snowing.

What does it have for Lincoln

[Minny_Weather]

What does it have for Lincoln

3-4".

[Tony]

Another boring weather week coming up for our area. This winter is DOA

[Tom]

At this range, the 12z EPS is indicating two pieces of energy with a lead wave going through the Dakotas/MN/U.P. and hinting at a secondary piece riding up towards the GL's.  BTW, this is almost very similar to how this past system looked at this range on the ensembles.  What eventually happened is the models weakened the lead wave and focused on the southern wave.  Coincidentally, today's 12z Euro op run flashed a similar outcome with a lead wave ejecting out and a secondary piece rounding the base of the trough and ejecting up into the GL's.  We are going to see a variety of solutions over the course of this upcoming week.

 

Meantime, 12z EPS trending colder and following the GEFS lead Week 1-2 with a more active/snowier pattern across our sub forum.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX will likely issue an advisory for everyone South of Norfolk & West of the Missouri River in the upcoming package. Widespread 3-5" amounts looking very well possible.

[Niko]

My forecast has multiple chances for snow next week. We will see how all of this pans out. That's the fun of this hobby.

[snowstorm83]

No indication of an advisory in the OAX AFD. I guess that settles it, we're getting buried tonight!

[Minny_Weather]

Oh yeah, I forgot. They don't look at current model runs, just the runs from the day before.

[Niko]

The warm-up next weekend is looking like it may be pushing some 50s or at least near 50F w some wet weather.

[centralweather44]

OAX will likely issue an advisory for everyone South of Norfolk & West of the Missouri River in the upcoming package. Widespread 3-5" amounts looking very well possible.

Have been out and about and haven’t gotten a chance to look at models. How did NAM look?

[Tabitha]

It snowed nicely here from about 1 PM to 2 PM MDT, before relenting...probably in response to the recently passed local ordinance prohibiting snow from continuing for more than 60 consecutive minutes.

 

About 2/10 of an inch accumulated; bringing the monthly total to 6/10ths of an inch and the seasonal total to 11.0 inches.

 

Heard of nickel and diming it?  This is a penny and a shilling...

[Minny_Weather]

Have been out and about and haven’t gotten a chance to look at models. How did NAM look?

NAM was slightly lower, 2-3", but NAM has also been not good lately.

[Minny_Weather]

Latest HRRR approaching 5" for Lincoln... Snowfall rates are expected to be light but it should fall throughout the night and flakes should be fat and fluffy. Not much wind to toss it around, either.

[Money]

Latest HRRR approaching 5" for Lincoln... Snowfall rates are expected to be light but it should fall throughout the night and flakes should be fat and fluffy. Not much wind to toss it around, either.

Where do you see 5? I see 3.2 with the snow stopped

[Minny_Weather]

Where do you see 5? I see 3.2 with the snow stopped

You looking at 10:1? Kuchera should be pretty accurate for this system. I'm on COD.

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011320&fh=18&r=us_c&dpdt=

[Minny_Weather]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011320&fh=18&r=us_c&dpdt=

Weird how it's completely different. 3-4" is a pretty accurate guess I'd think though. Snowfall throughout the night, while light, should produce about that much with the high ratios.

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR is East compared to radar.

[snowstorm83]

I figured the HRRR is probably overdone, but I still think up to 2" is still likely. 3-5" would be nice, but it was never really a legit possibility with this thing.

[Tabitha]

It snowed nicely here from about 1 PM to 2 PM MDT, before relenting...probably in response to the recently passed local ordinance prohibiting snow from continuing for more than 60 consecutive minutes.

 

About 2/10 of an inch accumulated; bringing the monthly total to 6/10ths of an inch and the seasonal total to 11.0 inches.

 

Heard of nickel and diming it?  This is a penny and a shilling...

 

Precipitation has moved back in; but now it is in the form of rain; (freezing rain, of course, as the temp is 23 F) but rain nonetheless.

 

A check of the current upper air chart shows that @ 925 mb SW SD is now above 0 C!  Perfect timing!

 

Misfortune...the kind of fortune that never misses!

[Minny_Weather]

I figured the HRRR is probably overdone, but I still think up to 2" is still likely. 3-5" would be nice, but it was never really a legit possibility with this thing.

I wouldn't say it's overdone yet. With high ratios, 11 hours of 10-20dBZ (or higher at times) radar readings would produce quite a bit. It would be fluff, however, and will probably compact down if it started to melt at all. Hopefully it won't be an issue tomorrow.

[Niko]

Currently @ 11F.

[CentralNebWeather]

Snowing here in Central Nebraska. Radar seems to have trended farther west of the models.

[Minny_Weather]

23Z HRRR did what I was afraid it would do. Shifted West to what current radar trends are doing. Still a decent amount for Lincoln, around 2-3", but doesn't bode well if it even a bit of that snow turns to liquid, as it will compact greatly.

[centralweather44]

All the local Mets here in Lincoln calling for 1-2” tops

[Minny_Weather]

All the local Mets here in Lincoln calling for 1-2” tops

If I were them I'd go 1-3". A 2" roof is too low due to easy accumulations imo. Even the most conservative models are saying just under 2". South side of Lincoln, specifically the SW side has the largest accumulation potential.

[CentralNebWeather]

Really nice snow band coming through my county

[Niko]

Its a frigid 7F. Back in the deep freeze once again.

[centralweather44]

Radar isn’t looking good for eastern Nebraska right now. Looks like things are starting to fizzle out a bit already. Possibly hitting some dryer air? Dew point is only 6 here in Lincoln.

[Minny_Weather]

Radar isn’t looking good for eastern Nebraska right now. Looks like things are starting to fizzle out a bit already. Possibly hitting some dryer air? Dew point is only 6 here in Lincoln.

The DP is close enough to the actual temperature of 13 here that it won't be a problem. The problem is just storm track. I agree, it's not looking awesome for us. Looking like we won't start seeing precip till after midnight here. The bullseye that we were supposed to be in has shifted to Central Nebraska.

[CentralNebWeather]

Been snowing here for several hours. Looks like more coming from the northwest. I am surprised to say the least.