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January 2018 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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Here at my house I am now at 1” of new snow fall. Still getting light snow falling with a temperature of 15°.  We are leaving for Florida tomorrow and as luck would have it there is WSW’s and WWA and of course wind chill advisories all across the south. It now looks like I will be taking the (western) route down there as the snow looks to move east Tuesday and Wednesday.  On my (western) route there are no mountains But there will be snow on the ground well into Alabama

We are now half way thru January and at the half way point. The mean this January so far is 18.6° (-6.1) the average H/L is 26.9/10.3° there had been 6.7” of snow so far and for this winter season we are now at 40.4”

Have a safe and fun trip bud!

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.LONG TERM...(Tuesday daytime through Sunday)Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018General overview of this 6-day period:Due to more pressing issues involving the dangerous wind chills inthe short-term, will be keeping this section shorter-than-usual,but will highlight the big stories in roughly chronological order.Before getting into that though, a quick word of caution regardingnext weekend`s forecast: While CURRENT models show a potentially-concerning snow storm, we want to emphasize that this is stillSEVERAL days away and subject to a considerable amount ofuncertainty. We urge anyone reading this to refrain from gettingtoo "hyped up" over this system, as less than a week ago we justhad a storm system that ended up looking much stronger in themodels several days out than it ended up being (at least in termsof snow accumulation).

2) Weekend Winter storm? (see cautionary note above!):

While Saturday daytime currently looks mainly dry, the Saturday

night-Sunday time frame has grown a bit more concerning over the

past 24 hours, as at least for now both the ECMWF/GFS are in

surprisingly good agreement showing a strong upper trough

intensifying as it lifts east-northeast across the Central Plains

toward the Upper Midwest. While we are DAYS away from having

considerable confidence in how this pans out, current models do

show a potentially potent combo of accumulating snow and strong

winds. In coordination with neighboring WFOs, have capped snow

chances (PoPs) at 50 percent for now, but this system clearly

bears close watching as it slowly nears.

AFD from Hastings.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It’s 6 days out! You’re joking, right?

About which part?  And no, if you follow history the past few years, there hasn't been a synoptic style storm that has setup well for Eastern Iowa in quite some time.  The Euro is usually pretty good with the track by 120 hours, so if it doesn't change between now and say Wednesday then I'm not optimistic.  That and NWS already calling it a rain maker for our area with highs in the 30s and 40s doesn't look promising. Certainly it could change, which is why I stated I'm waiting a bit.   

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thanks

 

Dittos, and find some sunshine and warmth while you're down there.. ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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the difference this storm seems to have so far is it strengthens slightly as it heads east, whereas previous storms were weakening.  This one goes from about 1008mb in CO to 998mb in central IL

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011512/174/snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Still not sure why everyone is fretting over the euro. We need to remember that it was absolute garbage with both of the last SW flow systems. It may be just as bad this time around. Still a lot of time left to go on this one yet.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Still not sure why everyone is fretting over the euro. We need to remember that it was absolute garbage with both of the last SW flow systems. It may be just as bad this time around. Still a lot of time left to go on this one yet.

Fretting?? We are  6 days out of course it could be wrong.  Personally I wouldnt discount the EURO because it performed poorly last time.  

 

If that is the way we roll there are not many storms at which we should even look at the GFS outside of 3 days.

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Fretting?? We are 6 days out of course it could be wrong. Personally I wouldnt discount the EURO because it performed poorly last time.

 

If that is the way we roll there are not many storms at which we should even look at the GFS outside of 3 days.

I’m not discounting the euro, but I’m also less willing to put a lot of stock in it because of that. That wouldn’t change regardless of which model had snow here, if any. Completely discounting a model of any skill is generally a poor move.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I’m not discounting the euro, but I’m also less willing to put a lot of stock in it because of that. That wouldn’t change regardless of which model had snow here, if any. Completely discounting a model of any skill is generally a poor move.

Do you put more stock in the GFS than the EURO?

 

Again not that it matters at 150 hours.  I mean if that track ends up 100 miles north of the GFS or 100 miles south is that really a bad performance at 150 hours?

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Do you put more stock in the GFS than the EURO?

Right now, yes. But by saying that I also should say it’s almost certainly well overdone with the snow amounts. 50/30 in favor of the GFS. Normally I side with th euro, but with significant blunders in the last week or so, I’m hesitant to do so.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Hopefully this one doesn’t follow the pattern so far this winter. How many of these storms have shown up 5-6 days out only to fizzle out within 36 hours? I’ve lost count.

 

agree sick of storms taking a crap....  

 

I need S and E trends ofc, but that = weak sauce so far this winter. Lose-lose on the table unless this breaks the mold

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Right now, yes. But by saying that I also should say it’s almost certainly well overdone with the snow amounts. 50/30 in favor of the GFS. Normally I side with th euro, but with significant blunders in the last week or so, I’m hesitant to do so.

Ya 30 inches is probably overdoing it.  Fair enough.  Either model could be more right and I would argue at 150 hours they are not really that far apart.  

 

And I hate the EURO solution.  Enough rain to melt all of the snow that we have, though we will lose alot at the end of the week anyways

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UKMET only model to give me hope...all others are far to the south; even the German.

 

What does it see that the others don't?

 

I once read that it had the best verification scores of any model in the 5 - 7 day range; even the ECMWF...

 

But Canadian, GFS, and German, all far to the south.

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Diving into the long range pattern on this MLK holiday, I'd like to start off by talking about the glaring warm bias on the EPS as well as the CFSv2.  Interestingly, the GEFS have not been as warm in the extended and you have to give it some credit as it first "saw" the cooling trend during the long awaited 17th-21st pullback.  The EPS finally "saw" the cooler look as we got closer to the period.  With that being said, I continue to see the warm bias of the Euro in the extended and it is my opinion the GEFS have the right idea.  Why you may ask???  Well, everyone knows how much I use the BSR/LRC and EAR along with other long range forecasting techniques that have done quite well this season in general predicting storm patterns/troughs/ridges/etc.  

 

Let's use the LRC, as an example, and go back to the Dec 4th-5th Upper MW Blitz, which in all likely hood will cycle through this weekend.  Following that, 4 days later Dec 8th-9th, there was a frontal boundary draped across the southern Plains and a clipper that tracked across the north.  During that period, we had a +PNA/+NAO which did not favor a storm system and as this energy cycles through, I think we will see another southern wave ride up from the south.

 

If we were to use the EAR, there are several more storm chances showing up and lining up with the LRC, coincidentally...or not...check out the 12z GEFS/EPS showing a storm tracking across Japan on the 17th...this translates to a system in our part of the world between the 24th-26th.

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_9.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_4.png

 

 

Following that, the active pattern continues and I'm looking out for yet another SW flow system during the 28th-30th time frame...I think thats about it for now.  I don't think it truly does get real warm around these parts, except if you end up to the south of a particular storm.  The temp pattern will be volatile during this period but residual cold that will be around to tap should provide ample amount of cold air to produce winter storms.

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_9.png

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_29.png

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I would pay a lot of money just to lock in that GFS run. I feel like this screams Norfolk/Sioux City/Rochester special, but still many more stroke-inducing models runs to go lol. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Now this is the kind of system I’m talking about lol

 

Yeah, so was I last week with the Euro runs.. :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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