January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[St Paul Storm]

12z EPS take the mean SLP from KC thru E IA/S WI and hit MSP up into NW/N Wisco in the jack zone...

I’ve lost count how many times I’ve seen this 6 days out this winter.

[Money]

Part of the fun right.. I have excepted it.  Snow weenie gonna snow weenie

Yup

 

I think by Wed night we should start getting a better idea.

[Tom]

I’ve lost count how many times I’ve seen this 6 days out this winter.

Agree, but this time I think there is less confusion among the models as they seem to be closing in on 1 piece of energy coming out of the SW.  The last system had so many variables and pieces that wrecked havoc IMO.  This time around, there is less havoc to deal with and that's why I think this will be a different story.

[Tom]

Late weekend storm threat thread....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1719-121-123-winter-storm/

[Niko]

On to some other news....cannot wait for some warmer weather by the weekend....Looking forward to some rain and temps in the 40s. Great opportunity to clean out the streets from all of that salt.

 

Btw: Month and  a half remaining until its March 1st. Ahhhhh, Meteorological Spring just around the corner. 

[Niko]

Currently, snow and a temp of 18F. Close to 3".

[Hawkeye]

I'm also looking forward to some warmer weather.  I've had enough of the frigid stuff for a while.  Still, I hope enough cold returns for the big storm.

 

There shouldn't be much left of our snow/ice by the weekend.  It will be nice to get the crusty sleet/ice layer off the pavement.  Most people didn't even bother shoveling it off.  Even I didn't do the entire driveway.

[Niko]

Yup.....I've had enough of the cold as well. Speaking of cleaning the driveway from free of ice, I never add salt onto my pavement as this will damage my cement and create cracks down the road. All I do is use my snowblower and throw snow on my grass.

[snowstorm83]

LPS cancelling due to the cold tomorrow. Kind of surprised since it's not warning criteria cold.

[Minny_Weather]

LPS cancelling due to the cold tomorrow. Kind of surprised since it's not warning criteria cold.

Seriously? Just bundle up the kids. My god. They've gone to school in worse.

[East Dubzz]

Ehh, you'll golf in either, right?

I like the way you think

[Tom]

I like the way the Euro weeklies are trending, esp out in the Plains/MW to close out the month.  Lot's of winter fun still on the table even if you miss out on the weekend storm.  Jan Thaw will be in full effect around here later in the week and likely wipe out the fluff we have received over the past couple days.  Yesterday, it snowed continuously all day long which I enjoyed on my day off.  It was a pleasantly cold/snowy mid-winter day in Chicago.  Can we have these more frequently please?

[westMJim]

We will soon be on the road. The first part of the trip will with a lot of rush time traffic and lake snows. Here at my house picked up 4” of snow from midnight until cleared out the drive way. The good news is it’s very fluffy and easy to move. The temperature here is 15° with snow falling. We will be in Bowling Green KY tonight,

[westMJim]

 Climatology for today January 16^th  At Grand Rapids Mi

The average H/L 31/18

The record high is 58° in 1949 the coldest maximum is 9 in 1994

The record low is -16 in 1994 the warmest minimum is 39 in 1939

The most snow is reported as 5.5” in 1924

The most on the ground is 23” in 1979

Last year the H/L was 33/20 and there was no snow on the ground.

[Tom]

Implications in the longer range to close out the month suggest to look for the cold to make another push and fight against the ridge.  Yesterday's Euro MJO still suggesting it to head into the Null Phase and is exactly why I noticed the WPO trend more negative and following the GFS lead (crazy to think).

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_wpo_forecast.png

[Snowlover76]

Storm will bust

[jaster220]

I like the way the Euro weeklies are trending, esp out in the Plains/MW to close out the month.  Lot's of winter fun still on the table even if you miss out on the weekend storm.  Jan Thaw will be in full effect around here later in the week and likely wipe out the fluff we have received over the past couple days.  Yesterday, it snowed continuously all day long which I enjoyed on my day off.  It was a pleasantly cold/snowy mid-winter day in Chicago.  Can we have these more frequently please?

 

Snowy W Michigan welcomes you..make the move

[jaster220]

Storm will bust

 

Already is a bust for me. Care to be a little more specific?

[snowstorm83]

Mom is sending pics back home in Mississippi and it easily looks like 3" or so. That place went 4 years without an inch of snow when I was a teenager and as soon as I leave it's been picking up snow like it's nothing lol

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I can see why schools here cancelled lol. -1.8°F on my balcony. Not like they've actually gone to school in worse, right?

 

My school isn't cancelled. How will I walk 5 minutes from my parking garage to the downtown campus I attend? Oh right, gloves and a hat. I forgot.

[Niko]

Still a few snowshowers out there and a temp of 13F. 3.3" total. Expecting some more pm snowshowers, so it could add more to that.

[Minny_Weather]

My mom in Houston sent me this. It's 30°F and raining there. Everything is an icy mess.

[Niko]

Some colder weather is to return after the weekend rainstorm, but it wont be nearly as cold like it has been in the recent days. As a matter of fact, near average  to maybe slightly below. I think ( maybe ) we are done w the bitter cold airmasses that we have been encountering this Winter. Days are also longer as well. Higher sun angle also as we move into February. Although, have to say, the month of February could be a doozy one ( in terms of snowstorms) especially on the EC.

[Hawkeye]

We've had a new small layer of accumulating snow overnight into this morning.  It's still snowing.  I had no idea it was supposed to snow at all.

[Minny_Weather]

We've had a new small layer of accumulating snow overnight into this morning. It's still snowing. I had no idea it was supposed to snow at all.

There were a few flakes on my car that I just brushed off with my hand.

[NEJeremy]

The schools were canceled for forecast windchills of -25 that were supposed to last most of the morning(advisory was set to expire at noon). You may have heavy hats, coats, and gloves, etc, but my wife teaches at a school in a poorer part of Omaha where believe it or not, not all kids have heavy winter clothing and some kids have to walk to school. Better safe than sorry. Not sure why people get so worked up about stuff like this.

[jaster220]

Some colder weather is to return after the weekend rainstorm, but it wont be nearly as cold like it has been in the recent days. As a matter of fact, near average  to maybe slightly below. I think ( maybe ) we are done w the bitter cold airmasses that we have been encountering this Winter. Days are also longer as well. Higher sun angle also as we move into February. Although, have to say, the month of February could be a doozy one ( in terms of snowstorms) especially on the EC.

 

Nah, just look at the NWS hazards map for a recurring theme for this winter, thus more warnings for Dixieland than the Midwest. Get ready for at least another 2 full months of cold clippers and suppressed S storms, intermingled with the occasional rainer/cutter going well north of us. I was super lucky to get hit with last Friday's mini-storm in Marshall. Too bad I was at work so missed every flake, lol   Gotta love it..

[Niko]

Nah, just look at the NWS hazards map for a recurring theme for this winter, thus more warnings for Dixieland than the Midwest. Get ready for at least another 2 full months of cold clippers and suppressed S storms, intermingled with the occasional rainer/cutter going well north of us. I was super lucky to get hit with last Friday's mini-storm in Marshall. Too bad I was at work so missed every flake, lol   Gotta love it..

Ugh!!!!

 

In February, I'd rather get 2 big storms than clippers. I think we had enough clippers already, although, in December, I have to say were very good ones. SEMI is all about clippers I see . 

[Niko]

Currently @ 17F w snowshowers. Very light activity, nothing extreme.

[Niko]

Nah, just look at the NWS hazards map for a recurring theme for this winter, thus more warnings for Dixieland than the Midwest. Get ready for at least another 2 full months of cold clippers and suppressed S storms, intermingled with the occasional rainer/cutter going well north of us. I was super lucky to get hit with last Friday's mini-storm in Marshall. Too bad I was at work so missed every flake, lol   Gotta love it..

 

Geeh...I wonder whatever happened to big southern storms that were projected for us back in the late Autumn to hit our area under a favorable pattern in Winter......   I'd tell ya one thing, don't eva believe any pretty maps that are posted or anything that is shown because its all garbage. Ma Nature will do what she wants.  Its okay to fantasize though!

[jaster220]

Nah, just look at the NWS hazards map for a recurring theme for this winter, thus more warnings for Dixieland than the Midwest. Get ready for at least another 2 full months of cold clippers and suppressed S storms, intermingled with the occasional rainer/cutter going well north of us. I was super lucky to get hit with last Friday's mini-storm in Marshall. Too bad I was at work so missed every flake, lol   Gotta love it..

 

Geeh...I wonder whatever happened to big southern storms that were projected for us back in the late Autumn to hit our area under a favorable pattern in Winter......   I'd tell ya one thing, don't eva believe any pretty maps that are posted or anything that is shown because its all garbage. Ma Nature will do what she wants.  Its okay to fantasize though!

 

Yep, sure got my pre-season mileage in that dept. Oh well, next seaon will look like the crappiest pattern evva, but somehow we will catch every break and it'll end up delivering. Ma Nature will be rolling on the floor laughing all the while 

[Snowlover76]

The schools were canceled for forecast windchills of -25 that were supposed to last most of the morning(advisory was set to expire at noon). You may have heavy hats, coats, and gloves, etc, but my wife teaches at a school in a poorer part of Omaha where believe it or not, not all kids have heavy winter clothing and some kids have to walk to school. Better safe than sorry. Not sure why people get so worked up about stuff like this.

Wussification of America

[NEJeremy]

Wussification of America

Ignorant

[Minny_Weather]

Dean Wysocki on why it will be cold in the long range:

 

Some reasons why cold temperatures and stormy weather may again control the February landscape around much of North America:

 

1) The storm complex off of the West Coast should draw in a warmer pattern from Texas into the Eastern Seaboard later this week. But California, the Intermountain Region and Upper Midwest will almost surely cool back down as a result of the passage of this disturbance.

 

2) Note the expansion and intensification of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, now nosing out into the western Pacific Ocean form the Maritime Continent. The chances that the MJO will link with the polar and subtropical jet streams, thus creating a window for amplification, will be increasing within 10 days. That just might lead to colder profiles in the middle of the U.S. and Canada.

 

3) Snow and ice coverage across the Northern Hemisphere is nearing its seasonal maximum. Remember that a vast snowpack and sea ice serves as a refrigerant for developing Arctic air masses.

 

4) Computer models seem to favor another period of southward drainage of Arctic air, particularly on and after January 26. The East Coast may escape, but for how long?

 

Winter is alive and well, my friends.

[hlcater]

A lot of GEFS members also have another system in KS 7 days out. Doesn't appear particularly strong at the moment though.

 

[gimmesnow]

My January observation is that it sucks to leave anywhere near Chicago if you want a snow storm.

[Niko]

Not sure if anyone saw or heard a loud noise, but a "Meteor Shower" visited the Detroit Metro area. I saw it. It was huge and had a bright light and then a loud bang. It happened around 8 to 810pm this evening. Amazing stuff!

 

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/videos-bright-light-seen-loud-explosion-heard-in-metro-detroit

[Niko]

Good banding came through earlier and picked up a quick 1.7". It was really coming down. Total since yesterday @ 4.4".

[westMJim]

As you may or may not know we are on our way down to Florida and will be on a cruise next week. We stayed last night in Bowling Green KY. The trip here started with moderate snow falling in Grand Rapids and it snowed almost to South Bend I 196 and US 31 were generally well cleared but there was a lot of black ice south of Holland (MI) the one thing that stood out is that the temperature started out at 15 when we left and dropped the further south we drove. And by the time the sun cane out south of South Bend the temperature was only +2° and stayed between +2 and +5 all the way cross Indiana it did get in the low teens in Kentucky. The sun was out all the way after we got south of  South Bend.

 

Here in Bowling Green KY there looks to be about 5” of snow and ice on the ground there is a lot of ice on the road signs and trees so they did get a lot of freezing rain along with the snow. The schools are still closed here today the main roads here in Kentucky are not bad the side roads not so good yet. Will see how they are in Tennessee as we head that way after breakfast, Right now it is cloudy and 9 here.

[Tom]

The next storm maker is already showing up in the Day 9-10 range that has been well predicted for some time now.  00z EPS/GEFS are highlighting yet another system coming out of the SW/Rockies around the 25th/26th.  Based on what I'm seeing at this range, I feel those who will miss our late weekend system will have a better shot at seeing snow out of this system.  There will be residual cold around post late weekend storm and more HP to provide the blocking.  Not only that, but the -AO will have solidly taken place across N.A. which should help suppress the storm track south during the time when the jet typically reaches its strongest strength in late Jan/early Feb.