January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

12z Euro...most precip in IN/S MI may be mixed per this map...

[Money]

after the storm on the euro, looks like we go back in the freezer. Yay.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010112/216/850tw.conus.png

Fun. I’m guessing the ice should be pretty good on Lake Winnebago this year

[Tom]

The idea of back 2 back storms between the Jan 7th-15th period is still in play.  All the models today showed that possibility in today's 12z suite of runs.  Let's see how nature delivers this go around as Winter is fully entrenched.

[Minny_Weather]

after the storm on the euro, looks like we go back in the freezer. Yay.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010112/216/850tw.conus.png

And most of the snow here should be gone after this weekend, so we'll go thru that with little or no snow left.

[snowstorm83]

I've never felt a sub zero temp before and I missed this past cold snap so I wouldn't mind another one! Just wish models are overdoing weekend temps or we actually get new snow.

[jaster220]

More southern members showed up this run and seem to have that look the 12z GGEM showed.

  

Indeed, both UKIE and Euro showing the CO Low feature. Let’s see where this goes.

Was going to question your enthusiasm for the 12z GEM run that gave yby nada..but then the Euro ran and I see now. Would be roughly 49 days from 18 Nov?

[Tom]

12z Euro control very similar to the Euro op and focuses on the southern energy with pretty similar snow maps.  Trends are looking better than what they were showing last couple days and still a lot of possibilities at this range.  Hey, at least there is something to track with another one on its heels a couple days later (the later may be the big dog that tugs down the Nanook).

[Tom]

  

Was going to question your enthusiasm for the 12z GEM run that gave yby nada..but then the Euro ran and I see now. Would be roughly 49 days from 18 Nov?

Similar set up but I'm not sure yet if this is the same system...will have to see about this in a couple days.

[Iowawx]

Even at 2:00PM, we are still only at -8 here in Cedar Rapids. Does not look like we will get any warmer than that today before sunset. Forecast for tonight is -22, but wouldn't be surprised if that is lowered when afternoon forecast update comes out. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

We have a long ways to go with this new storm were tracking. Every GFS ensemble is different. But since the last bust of the GFS i would tend to follow the EURO more closely this time. 

[Money]

18z gfs taking a small step towards Euro

[Iowawx]

GFS has rain for Iowa, Illinois, Southern Wisconsin and Indiana. Keep this storm away if its going to be a rain event.

[Madtown]

La Crosse and MKX saying highs in the 20s. No mention of mixing. Both offices sound pretty confident about light accumulations.

[james1976]

2 cold weather related deaths in WI. Be safe out there folks.

[Tom]

ORD only made it to +1F today which again models busted to high with temps. Set a record low max temp for the day.

[jaster220]

ORD only made it to +1F today which again models busted to high with temps. Set a record low high temp for the day.

A balmy 10-13 deg all day here in Marshall. But, even with that I went out and plugged my block heater in then tried to clean the snow off my car and shovel with bare hands. Uh uh! The steel handle had me finding gloves, lol. Can't fathom the stuff from Chicago on west!

[jaster220]

Perusing Lower Michigan, it looks like Mancelona in Antrim Cnty has been ground zero for snow this past week, reporting a cool 24" depth. Several other towns I love to tourist at are at 20" as well

 

CoCoRaHS Precipitation Reports

Values are for the previous 24 hours ending around 7 am EST.

All reports have been recorded in inches.

 

SNOW SNOW WATER

STATION LOCATION PCPN FALL DEPTH EQUIV

MIAT06 : MANCELONA 0.5 ESE * : 0.25 / 4.8 / 24.0 / MM

MILL01 : NORTHPORT 5.0 SSW * : 0.20 / 2.9 / MM / MM

MICX07 : EAST JORDAN 2.1 NNW * : 0.12 / 2.0 / 19.5 / MM

MIMN06 : WELLSTON 3.9 WNW * : 0.12 / 2.0 / 0.0 / 0.00

MIBZ01 : BENZONIA 5.3 S * : 0.11 / 1.7 / 20.0 / MM

MIOT04 : GAYLORD 1.7 WNW * : 0.08 / 1.6 / 15.0 / MM

MIEM05 : HARBOR SPRINGS 0.7 ENE * : 0.05 / 0.8 / 15.0 / MM

MIOD03 : LUZERNE 2.4 NE * : 0.05 / 1.0 / 3.0 / 0.35

MICX04 : CHARLEVOIX 4.3 SSE * : 0.05 / 1.5 / MM / MM

MIPI01 : ROGERS CITY 0.2 WSW * : 0.01 / 0.1 / 11.0 / MM

MIMC04 : ST. IGNACE 0.5SE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 7.0 / MM

MIIC03 : EAST TAWAS 0.8 WSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 5.0 / MM

MIAR02 : ALGER 2.4 ENE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM

[Tom]

[Minny_Weather]

Hashtag make Nebraska Winters great again.

[Snowlover76]

Hashtag make Nebraska Winters great again.

 

I'd take a decade of garbage winters for the huskers to go on a run like they did in the 90's

[Tom]

It’s crazy to think it’s already -5F with only a couple inches of snow OTG. The magnitude of this cold is impressive to say the least. Normally, you would need somewhere on the order of 6-10” of snow at the bare min to get temps this cold. Not this year.

[Minny_Weather]

I'd take a decade of garbage winters for the huskers to go on a run like they did in the 90's

Hey, the few years before our last run was pretty bad for snow. About as bad as the past few years. Maybe Frost has a double meaning here?

[Money]

0z gfs really going with the southern energy this run

 

999 L at hr 132 in the co region

[Money]

997 L in E KS at hr 138 with snow falling in WI/IL/IA

[hlcater]

997 L in E KS at hr 138 with snow falling in WI/IL/IA

Got quite a bit of a warm surge with it though, snow would probably transition to rain. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nice, looking like euro except a bit more north over us

 

[bud2380]

Lots of rain in Iowa this run.

[Money]

Ends up tracking just south of Chicago this run

[bud2380]

Maybe 2-4” north of i 80 in Iowa. I don’t like these types of storms for my area. Rarely do they pan out. Huge warm surge out in front of the system. Positive tilt. Then even if the low tracks to the south, usually the best moisture is off to the north and east by the time the cold arrives. Not worth worrying about yet though.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

WOW canadian has a NW flow clipper with more arctic air. Completely different from the GFS / EURO. Should be fun to track lol

[Snowlover76]

Hey, the few years before our last run was pretty bad for snow. About as bad as the past few years. Maybe Frost has a double meaning here?

Seeing Bama play Georgia in the title game is about as bad as it gets.

[Money]

Ukie sides with the gem

 

No southern storm

[Tom]

00z Euro with widespread 3-5" totals across N MO/IL/IN and into MI...looks like it tries phasing as it tracks towards the GL's and taking on a neg tilt.  These finer details will be something to iron out this week.  Both the GFS/EURO are now trending towards more blocking with a -AO/-NAO in tandem.  Could we have turned a corner with a sustained -AO in a -QBO winter???

[Tom]

GFS vs Euro comparison...

 

[james1976]

Chicago does well with both solutions. Glad we have something to track this week besides cold!

[Tom]

This season we have seen flashes of the winters in the late 70's, 60’s, and more recently '13/'14...but also, we are seeing 1917-18 in the mix...very interesting winter that is transpiring. Sick of the cold??? Well, as mentioned earlier, if we were to use the BSR and LRC, there is another pull back that's been on my mind between the 17th-21st, give or take a couple days. Back in late Nov into early Dec, there was a zonal pattern that developed across the lower 48 and overnight GEFS/EPS are showing signs of it in the extended. Something to keep an eye on.

 

Worcester had a two-fer on New Years Day. The low temperature tied the record for the date, -5 degrees set in 1918. The high temperature was 8 degrees, which set a record for coldest maximum temperature for the date. The previous record low maximum was 9 degrees in 1918.

[Tom]

Current temps across the area....umm, ya....could I have a late start today????

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like we're gonna get a lot of snowmelt here this weekend. It won't completely go away, but it'll be just enough to make it look ugly outside with grassy patches.

[james1976]

Cedar Rapids record low was -14 set in 1974. It was -22 last hour.

[james1976]

City water tower in Evansdale, IA froze up last night. Mayor has urged city residents to leave their faucets trickling to keep pipes from freezing up. Yeah its cold.