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January Weather In the PNW

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#9351
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 02:00 PM

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By 2020 we’ll be hearing about multi year La Nina’s in the mid 2020s.


No, you won’t. I’ve had this prediction for awhile. Expect another Niño “head fake” this spring before a retraction to ENSO neutral for winter 2018/19, followed by the climatological solar min/El Niño response in 2019/20, then a very amplified multiyear La Niña spanning the early 2020s. At least one winter in the early 2020s will feature a strong La Niña.

The climate system has been undergoing a significant transition since 2012/13. Except for 2015/16, the ENSO has been essentially dormant since then. Recent years with largely dormant ENSO include 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2016/17. We can probably add 2018/19, as well. Quite the stretch.

The El Niño of 2019/20 wil mark the return of a more amplified ENSO phase, IMO.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#9352
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 31 January 2018 - 02:09 PM

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It feels like winter is over and it probable is as far as anything decent. 


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#9353
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 02:09 PM

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If you’ve read the literature on tropical climate, you know that “slowing down = speeding up”.

In other words, when we get these multi-year stretches with stagnant tropical forcing/dormant ENSO, we observe large scale reorganization(s) of the climate during or after their termination.

A dormant ENSO represents a “change in direction” for the system, like when you hit the breaks before making a turn in a vehicle. Usually, the more prolonged the dormant stretch, the more significant the upcoming regime change.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#9354
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 02:15 PM

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This “slowing down before speeding up” behavior is found throughout the climate system, on many timescales.

Even in the context of paleoclimate.

https://www.research...mate-change.pdf

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

In the Earth’s history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. Therefore, our results imply independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds. Because the mechanism causing slowing down is fundamentally inherent to tipping points, it follows that our way to detect slowing down might be used as a universal early warning signal for upcoming catastrophic change. Because tipping points in ecosys- tems and other complex systems are notoriously hard to predict in other ways, this is a promising perspective.


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#9355
stuffradio

Posted 31 January 2018 - 02:25 PM

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I'm at more than 2 inches above normal precip for this month. 10.35" is average for January and 8.38" is average for February. We're starting to rapidly decline month over month in average precip amounts. I have received more than 12" of precipitation this month.



#9356
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 02:35 PM

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Another thing about ENSO. Its recent medium period operating harmonic has resembled a “drinking bird” function over the last fifty years or so.

The more recent reputations have been faster, with more prolonged cycle returns into El Niño, versus the earlier ones, which were slower, with much quicker cycle returns into El Niño.

It just so happens that 2013 marked the start of a new ENSO cycle.

1Y5JVn2.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#9357
DareDuck

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:17 PM

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No, you won’t. I’ve had this prediction for awhile. Expect another Niño “head fake” this spring before a retraction to ENSO neutral for winter 2018/19, followed by the climatological solar min/El Niño response in 2019/20, then a very amplified multiyear La Niña spanning the early 2020s. At least one winter in the early 2020s will feature a strong La Niña.

The climate system has been undergoing a significant transition since 2012/13. Except for 2015/16, the ENSO has been essentially dormant since then. Recent years with largely dormant ENSO include 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2016/17. We can probably add 2018/19, as well. Quite the stretch.

The El Niño of 2019/20 wil mark the return of a more amplified ENSO phase, IMO.

I honestly don’t really care about a strong La Niña all that much. The best winters in my area the last 30 years or so have been best in weak -ENSO.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#9358
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:22 PM

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I honestly don’t really care about a strong La Niña all that much. The best winters in my area the last 30 years or so have been best in weak -ENSO.


That might have been true in the past, but things could very well be different in the future. These teleconnective relationships aren’t linear, and neither are the phenomena in transaction.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#9359
TT-SEA

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:39 PM

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6 more days of warm front drizzle... counting down the days until next Wednesday when it finally might be dry.     This is the absolute worst weather pattern we experience here in my opinion.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png


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#9360
MossMan

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:42 PM

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It feels like winter is over and it probable is as far as anything decent.

I ate my salad today with a fork...the same fork that I am sticking into the winter (if you want to call it a winter) that was 2017/2018. Massively boring much like the last 5 winters have been for the Puget Sound area. All we can hope for is a cycle back to 2006-2012 type winters again.

#9361
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 31 January 2018 - 04:10 PM

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Things have changed a ton. Growing up here i remember sledding every year a few times. 


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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#9362
Front Ranger

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:34 PM

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6 more days of warm front drizzle... counting down the days until next Wednesday when it finally might be dry.     This is the absolute worst weather pattern we experience here in my opinion.  

 

 

Hasn't rained in 48 hours at SEA.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#9363
TT-SEA

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:38 PM

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Hasn't rained in 48 hours at SEA.

 

Yes... classic weak warm front situation.    Drizzled here almost all day... 6 more to go.  



#9364
Deweydog

Posted 31 January 2018 - 07:09 PM

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Colder than average high today at PDX.

#nice

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#9365
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 31 January 2018 - 07:11 PM

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If that is the case it means we will have gone through meteorological winter with exactly one winter storm that brought us 8" of snow for South Lake Tahoe. This would be unprecedented and would be far worse than the 1976, 1932, 2013, and 2014 winters for snowfall. It's looking like 3 of the top 5 least snowy winters will all of happened since 2013 up here. Records go back to the 1880's. This stretch is remarkable.

 

This has been an absolutely terrible fall and winter season for CA, especially Socal, but your area has done very poorly, too.



#9366
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 31 January 2018 - 07:15 PM

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12Z GFS shows 6 more days of warm front drizzle and occasional rain and then finally some dry weather.   

 

A deep trough and an active pattern would be fine (like yesterday) or some dry weather.   Nothing is worse than days of warm front drizzle and high snow levels right now.  

 

A deep trough that brings some meaningful rain and snow to the entire West Coast would really be nice about now!



#9367
tomas

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:31 PM

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Another thing about ENSO. Its recent medium period operating harmonic has resembled a “drinking bird” function over the last fifty years or so.

The more recent reputations have been faster, with more prolonged cycle returns into El Niño, versus the earlier ones, which were slower, with much quicker cycle returns into El Niño.

It just so happens that 2013 marked the start of a new ENSO cycle.

1Y5JVn2.jpg

           
geopolar-ssta-monthly-nnvl--web--2017-12

geopolar-ssta-monthly-nnvl--620x413--201

 

Forecasters believe the ongoing weak-to-moderate La Niña is currently peaking and will weaken into the spring.


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#9368
jcmcgaffey

Posted 31 January 2018 - 10:02 PM

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Yes... classic weak warm front situation. Drizzled here almost all day... 6 more to go.

. It rained in most places yesterday and today (including almost all of the city of Seattle. SEA was a bit of an outlier the last few days in terms of not seeing any rain.

#9369
Geos

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:05 AM

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Just shy of 7" for the month. 6.97" total. Only like 5 nights were it hitting freezing or below.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 21.70", 05/20

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#9370
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:07 AM

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Just shy of 7" for the month. 6.97" total. Only like 5 nights were it hitting freezing or below.

 

Never did go below freezing here the entire month.    SEA only had one below freezing temp... 31 on New Years Day morning.