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January Weather In the PNW


stuffradio

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GEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Even with that wild retrogression shown on the 00Z GEM... it still does not really get there for us through 240 hours.  

 

The real cold air is still bottled up north of the border.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the 00z ia gunna get good around day 10 again.

I don’t see it. And yeah, I know I’ll be attacked by everyone for this post.

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Once again, the GFS is looking for a way to have extreme Alaskan blocking without a Western Arctic outbreak. It's a delicate balance, but one that this winter has managed to pull off time and again.

I only believe in seasonal pattern repetition when it's repeating patterns we like.

 

We have to SCORE at some point.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I only believe in seasonal pattern repetition when it's repeating patterns we like.

 

We have to SCORE at some point.

 

Sure, maybe. But you have to admit that few winters manage to pull off this much blocking without notable cold in the PNW. It's been borderline remarkable to this point, and if this coming pattern doesn't pull it off, maybe unprecedented.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I only believe in seasonal pattern repetition when it's repeating patterns we like.

 

We have to SCORE at some point.

We will...next winter.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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That should definitely be the main takeaway at this point.

 

Yes.   Or should we extrapolate the GEM beyond 240 hours?   Because even the GEM does not get us there.     :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes.   Or should we extrapolate the GEM beyond 240 hours?   Because even the GEM does not get us there.     :)

 

It's by far the most promising run within 10 days to this point. Looking at the overall pattern...the details like will the Arctic front get hung up at the border or not are pretty much meaningless.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Sure, maybe. But you have to admit that few winters manage to pull off this much blocking without notable cold in the PNW. It's been borderline remarkable to this point, and if this coming pattern doesn't pull it off, maybe unprecedented.

Eh, we've yet to see an evolution this winter which smelled all that tasty from a teleconnection standpoint. I'm sure you'll find some vague anomaly map to counter this but the reality has been there has been a significant disconnect between what has been high latitude blocking and an insistence on keeping a mainly progressive wavetrain in the mid latitudes since the big -PNA ridge broke down in mid December.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It's by far the most promising run within 10 days to this point. Looking at the overall pattern...the details like will the Arctic front get hung up at the border or not are pretty much meaningless.

He knows this. He does this everytime there is a decent run.

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It's by far the most promising run within 10 days to this point. Looking at the overall pattern...the details like will the Arctic front get hung up at the border or not are pretty much meaningless.

It doesn't have a passport and when it gets one it will realize it prefers the beauty of the Great Plains. This will happen...absolutely.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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This 00z GFS run is so weird looking, it has to have a SSW event or something weird aloft with the waves.

 

Oh, and the GGEM overdoes retrogressions, so perhaps nothing Earth shattering in regards to that.

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It's by far the most promising run within 10 days to this point. Looking at the overall pattern...the details like will the Arctic front get hung up at the border or not are pretty much meaningless.

 

I think the GEM is probably pretty meaningless in general.   But who knows?

 

I will wait until the ECMWF and EPS come aboard.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes. Or should we extrapolate the GEM beyond 240 hours? Because even the GEM does not get us there. :)

In my mind, that shortwave dropping into the Yukon at hour 240 explodes into the existing omega block and drops to 499dm. Sub 480dm thicknesses into Deer Park. The moisture-laden Arctic front stalls on a line from Wilsonville to McMinnville.

 

Thank you, mind.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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He knows this. He does this everytime there is a decent run.

 

Incorrect Bryant... as usual.  

 

I often post decent run maps.   All the time in fact.    And lots of snowfall maps from WeatherBell.  

 

So petty.   And bitter.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In my mind, that shortwave dropping into the Yukon at hour 240 explodes into the existing omega block and drops to 499dm. Sub 480dm into Deer Park. The moisture-laden Arctic front stalls on a line from Wilsonville to McMinnville.

Thank you, mind.

You only have to wait 1 more year for that. January 25th 2019. I was there. Tim was in hawaii.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Eh, we've yet to see an evolution this winter which smelled all that tasty from a teleconnection standpoint. I'm sure you'll find some vague anomaly map to counter this but the reality has been there has been a significant disconnect between what has been high latitude blocking and an insistence on keeping a mainly progressive wavetrain in the mid latitudes since the big -PNA ridge broke down in mid December.

 

I'd have to look closer again, but I don't think there have been hardly any winters with this much -EPO and so little meaningful cold in the PNW.

 

Obviously, the lack of -PNA has been the big killer, but it's still very unusual to have the amount of Alaskan blocking we've seen without that.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I'd have to look closer again, but I don't think there have been hardly any winters with this much -EPO and so little meaningful cold in the PNW.

 

Obviously, the lack of -PNA has been the big killer, but it's still very unusual to have the amount of Alaskan blocking we've seen without that.

Weird year.

 

Obviously when the sharpest mind on the forum busts this badly for the coldest month of the cold season you know something is SERIOUSLY f*cked up.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Talk about high drama with the models right now.  Oh the suspense!

 

I think we have a realistic shot at a good outcome.  Hopefully a clearer picture will emerge over the next couple of days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Talk about high drama with the models right now.  Oh the suspense!

 

I think we have a realistic shot at a good outcome.  Hopefully a clearer picture will emerge over the next couple of days.

 

It certainly has that "ripe with potential" feeling right now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Talk about high drama with the models right now. Oh the suspense!

 

I think we have a realistic shot at a good outcome. Hopefully a clearer picture will emerge over the next couple of days.

The drama on the forum overshadows any drama in the models.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The drama on the forum overshadows any drama in the models.

 

True dat!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Incorrect Bryant... as usual.

 

I often post decent run maps. All the time in fact. And lots of snowfall maps from WeatherBell.

 

So petty. And bitter.

You post whatever fits your narrative, because "I'm better than everyone else" Tim is never wrong
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According to the Weatherbell site the ECMWF had the WPO dropping to -5 next week on it's 12z run today.  Forecasts for PNA and EPO have turned negative on both the GFS and ECMWF on recent runs.  On paper that should equate to a good cold snap.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

According to the Weatherbell site the ECMWF had the WPO dropping to -5 next week on it's 12z run today. Forecasts for PNA and EPO have turned negative on both the GFS and ECMWF on recent runs. On paper that should equate to a good cold snap.

Do we really care about what is on paper or in our backyards? Now I am confused on what we are supposed to want... this is all so hard... weird year... MJO

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In my mind, that shortwave dropping into the Yukon at hour 240 explodes into the existing omega block and drops to 499dm. Sub 480dm thicknesses into Deer Park. The moisture-laden Arctic front stalls on a line from Wilsonville to McMinnville.

 

Thank you, mind.

Lol. I love you guys (and girls)

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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You post whatever fits your narrative, because "I'm better than everyone else" Tim is never wrong

 

Well... everyone sort of posts based on a narrative that interests them.

 

For example... I don't see Jesse posting warm anomaly maps.   Jim does not post warm anomaly maps.   It does not interest them.   That is fine.  

 

I certainly post interesting things both warm and cold.   I post endless snowfall maps that show lowland snow.   I posted maps just this week showing a trend towards retrogression and cold from EPS.     

 

I was mocked by Phil for saying the ECMWF looked like it was heading toward full on retrogression at the end of the run.   Which narrative is that?   The one that might lead to an arctic blast here?     

 

You cherry pick.   Its BS.   You are pretty much the only person on this board launching genuine personal attacks on a daily basis.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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