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January Weather In the PNW

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#51
Deweydog

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:00 AM

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Some people on here get very giddy about it dropping a little below 32 at night. :)

I was watching some New Years Eve celebrations on TV last night... it was 12 degrees in Nashville while Keith Urban was performing. :)


Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!2018!!!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#52
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:09 AM

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Some people on here get very giddy about it dropping a little below 32 at night.  :)

 

I was watching some New Years Eve celebrations on TV last night... it was 12 degrees in Nashville while Keith Urban was performing.  :)

 

Shows how pathetic our recent cold snap has been. 



#53
Timmy

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:11 AM

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Gem is pretty decent in the LR

#54
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:15 AM

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Gem is pretty decent in the LR

DEAR LORD... Rinse repeat.



#55
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:19 AM

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Currently 27 and sunny.

#56
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:19 AM

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Shows how pathetic our recent cold snap has been.


Sounds like you had a nice white Christmas. Practice gratitude.

#57
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:20 AM

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Gem is pretty decent in the LR

Just looked, indeed it is, perhaps the ECMWF will follow.

#58
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:22 AM

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Some people on here get very giddy about it dropping a little below 32 at night. :)

I was watching some New Years Eve celebrations on TV last night... it was 12 degrees in Nashville while Keith Urban was performing. :)


What is wrong with you? It is a very negative human trait to kick people when they are down and twist the knife like this. Pretty disgusting. Why does it bring you joy?
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#59
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:22 AM

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Currently 29F and cloudy. Snow depth is 3.5”. Happy new year all.

#60
Jake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:24 AM

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The GFS 12Z shows Seattle having very few days with 850's below 0C for the whole run.  This has to turn around. Rung in the new year with a low of 26F.  I hope you all have a great new year.



#61
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:24 AM

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What is wrong with you? It is a very negative human trait to kick people when they are down and twist the knife like this. Pretty disgusting. Why does it bring you joy?

 

Down?   Don't think so.  



#62
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:28 AM

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Down? Don't think so.


You know he is. Comes off vicious and hateful. Very strange.

#63
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:29 AM

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Beautiful New Years Day... much less snow than Christmas Day but this is almost as good.  

 

20180101_092518.jpg



#64
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:30 AM

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You know he is. Comes off vicious and hateful. Very strange.

 

I have seen no evidence of that.  


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#65
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:31 AM

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Sounds like you had a nice white Christmas. Practice gratitude.


I am thankful. But when the fed is printing trillions dollar notes why settle for 100 dollar bills 😂
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#66
Jginmartini

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:32 AM

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Got down to 28.5
Nice white frosty morning greeted me
Good morning 2018
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Blast of Arctic air please

#67
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:37 AM

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GFS ensembles still has quite a few cold members around the 10-13. I have seen worse runs.

#68
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:48 AM

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Brutal cold in Montana and North Dakota. Cut Bank put up a -15/-31 day on New Year's Eve. Hettinger, ND dropped to -42 before midnight, breaking the December record low of -40 from 1917. Currently sitting at -41 at 4:00 AM local time.


The December monthly record? Wow.
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#69
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:49 AM

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The December monthly record? Wow.

That was supposed to be Seattle’s
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#70
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:50 AM

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Some people on here get very giddy about it dropping a little below 32 at night. :)

I was watching some New Years Eve celebrations on TV last night... it was 12 degrees in Nashville while Keith Urban was performing. :)


Dropped to 6.4*F back home. Not close to the daily record but a solid -18*F departure on the low. Probably payback for last year’s furnace.
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#71
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:50 AM

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One of the better pieces of news is the ECMWF is clearly progressing the MJO wave into the Maritime Continent with decent amplitude as we get into the 10th to 15th range.  As always the GFS is mishandling the MJO.  Apparently this just might be an uglier transition than I had hope for.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#72
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:51 AM

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That was supposed to be Seattle’s

 

The target has been January for quite a while now.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#73
Timmy

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:56 AM

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The target has been January for quite a while now.

yeah ever since December flopped

#74
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:57 AM

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The target has been January for quite a while now.

I’m just giving Phil a hard time, I think he knows I appreciate his input here. I’m pretty sure there was talk of a New Years blast.

#75
stuffradio

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:57 AM

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Joe Bastardi this morning said this east coast cold pattern won't last as long as models are showing. In this instance he was more directly referring to the CFS showing east coast cold for 3 months, but the message remains that he sees the PNW getting back to the nina state pattern.


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#76
Deweydog

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:00 AM

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Joe Bastardi this morning said this east coast cold pattern won't last as long as models are showing. In this instance he was more directly referring to the CFS showing east coast cold for 3 months, but the message remains that he sees the PNW getting back to the nina state pattern.


We're officially f*cked.

Too bad the U-Haul places are all closed today.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#77
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:04 AM

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I am thankful. But when the fed is printing trillions dollar notes why settle for 100 dollar bills 😂


Difference being you can theoretically do some things to get more money. Complaining about the weather will get you nothing. 😂
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#78
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:20 AM

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I’m just giving Phil a hard time, I think he knows I appreciate his input here. I’m pretty sure there was talk of a New Years blast.


All good. I’m definitely fair game, given my earlier rhetoric.
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#79
Deweydog

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:21 AM

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Coldest start to January since 2015 at PDX!

#takethateastcoastpussies
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#80
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:23 AM

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Polar Bear Plunge at Rattlesnake Lake this morning... my son is the farthest out in the water.  :)

 

26170388_1550258495042353_83686726222435


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#81
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:36 AM

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Had a low of 29 to start the new year. Had 6 inches of new snow on the ground when I woke up New Year's Day last year, but I will take todays beautiful weather! My youngest woke up just before midnight. I guess she wanted to be awake for her first New Year's!

 

26512907_636936094164_2046260106_o.jpg?o


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#82
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:38 AM

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Polar Bear Plunge at Rattlesnake Lake this morning... my son is the farthest out in the water.  :)

 

26170388_1550258495042353_83686726222435

 

He is either very brave or very crazy! :) 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#83
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:42 AM

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He is either very brave or very crazy! :)

 

Both!  



#84
FroYoBro

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:42 AM

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Had a low of 29 to start the new year. Had 6 inches of new snow on the ground when I woke up New Year's Day last year, but I will take todays beautiful weather! My youngest woke up just before midnight. I guess she wanted to be awake for her first New Year's!

 

26512907_636936094164_2046260106_o.jpg?o

Nice picture Andrew.


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#85
richard mann

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:57 AM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/


---twitter_logo-t12.png

#86
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:57 AM

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You’d really think we were in a strong El Niño looking at the 12z Euro.
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#87
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:16 AM

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When was the last Niña this lame? 2010-11? We didn't have anything down here with that one.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#88
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:18 AM

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When was the last Niña this lame? 2010-11? We didn't have anything down here with that one.


That Niña had two fairly major arctic air masses. One in late November and one in late February. Also a decent cold snap right around New Years.
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#89
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:21 AM

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Weren’t there two Arctic blasts that year? One in November and the other in February?

Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#90
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:24 AM

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That Niña had two fairly major arctic air masses. One in late November and one in late February. Also a decent cold snap right around New Years.


I miss that 2008-2012 period. Mini-hiccup back into the classic -PNA/-NAO/retracted warm pool/climate cooling periods that have featured the country’s greatest winters..albeit a modified version of it.
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#91
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:25 AM

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I miss that 2008-2012 period. Mini-hiccup back into the classic -PNA/-NAO/retracted warm pool/climate cooling periods that have featured the country’s greatest winters..albeit a modified version of it.


Then anthropogenic global warming grabbed the wheel again.

#92
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:32 AM

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With nearly 48 inches of rain in 2017, Seattle has experienced the wettest four-year stretch in recorded history.

Seattle typically gets about 37.5 inches of rain each year, but for four years in a row the city has recorded more than 44 inches, according to National Weather Service data. That is the first time in more than 120 years of weather records.

 

https://www.seattlet...corded-history/



#93
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:32 AM

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That Niña had two fairly major arctic air masses. One in late November and one in late February. Also a decent cold snap right around New Years.

Both the Nov 2010 and Feb. 2011 were really nice events up here! Hoping we can at least have a Feb repeat this year.

#94
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:33 AM

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Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.

That was a good winter farther north. November blast and February blast. We had a huge snow storm in January too. (17”). I would assume expectations for the Oregon coast are pretty low in winter. You should consider moving farther north. 🤔

#95
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:34 AM

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15]With nearly 48 inches of rain in 2017, Seattle has experienced the wettest four-year stretch in recorded history.

15]Seattle typically gets about 37.5 inches of rain each year, but for four years in a row the city has recorded more than 44 inches, according to National Weather Service data. That is the first time in more than 120 years of weather records.

D

15]https://www.seattlet...corded-history/


Didn’t you already post this a few times?

#96
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:36 AM

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Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.

Not sure how the southern folks made out but I had nearly 18” of snow and below freezing for several days at the end of Feb. 2011 (If I’m thinking of the correct year) by the second week of Feb. I had given up on winter...then that top tier (for being late Feb) happened. Highs in the 20’s and lows in the teens for a few days.

#97
BLI snowman

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:36 AM

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Didn’t you already post this a few times?

 

He's going to post it once for every inch of rain that fell in Seattle. For emphasis.


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#98
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:40 AM

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Didn’t you already post this a few times?

 

It was on the front page of the paper today... and the year-end stats are final now.  



#99
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:43 AM

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Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.


That was a fairly cold winter. Although I don’t know about the coast or even where on the coast you lived.

Portland had highs near or below freezing and lows in the teens with both events. 2011 then went on to be our coldest year overall since 1985.

#100
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:43 AM

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Then anthropogenic global warming grabbed the wheel again.


What do you think caused the prolonged global warming from 1700-1950? Certainly that wasn’t us.

Just FWIW, from 2000-present, the CO^2 increase has added 0.479W/m^2 of radiative forcing as viewed from the TOA boundary. Meanwhile, swings between phases of the northern annular mode in boreal winter alter the radiative forcing to the surface by over 10W/m^2 based on measurements from MERRA/AIRS/CERES, or in other words, equal to almost a tripling of CO^2 concentrations.
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