January Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had a low of 29 to start the new year. Had 6 inches of new snow on the ground when I woke up New Year's Day last year, but I will take todays beautiful weather! My youngest woke up just before midnight. I guess she wanted to be awake for her first New Year's!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Polar Bear Plunge at Rattlesnake Lake this morning... my son is the farthest out in the water. 

 

 

He is either very brave or very crazy!  

[TT-SEA]

He is either very brave or very crazy!

 

Both!  

[FroYoBro]

Had a low of 29 to start the new year. Had 6 inches of new snow on the ground when I woke up New Year's Day last year, but I will take todays beautiful weather! My youngest woke up just before midnight. I guess she wanted to be awake for her first New Year's!

 

Nice picture Andrew.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/

[Jesse]

You’d really think we were in a strong El Niño looking at the 12z Euro.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

When was the last Niña this lame? 2010-11? We didn't have anything down here with that one.

[Jesse]

When was the last Niña this lame? 2010-11? We didn't have anything down here with that one.

That Niña had two fairly major arctic air masses. One in late November and one in late February. Also a decent cold snap right around New Years.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Weren’t there two Arctic blasts that year? One in November and the other in February?

Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

 

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.

[Phil]

That Niña had two fairly major arctic air masses. One in late November and one in late February. Also a decent cold snap right around New Years.

I miss that 2008-2012 period. Mini-hiccup back into the classic -PNA/-NAO/retracted warm pool/climate cooling periods that have featured the country’s greatest winters..albeit a modified version of it.

[Jesse]

I miss that 2008-2012 period. Mini-hiccup back into the classic -PNA/-NAO/retracted warm pool/climate cooling periods that have featured the country’s greatest winters..albeit a modified version of it.

Then anthropogenic global warming grabbed the wheel again.

[TT-SEA]

With nearly 48 inches of rain in 2017, Seattle has experienced the wettest four-year stretch in recorded history.

Seattle typically gets about 37.5 inches of rain each year, but for four years in a row the city has recorded more than 44 inches, according to National Weather Service data. That is the first time in more than 120 years of weather records.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/congrats-seattle-completes-wettest-four-year-stretch-in-recorded-history/

[MossMan]

That Niña had two fairly major arctic air masses. One in late November and one in late February. Also a decent cold snap right around New Years.

Both the Nov 2010 and Feb. 2011 were really nice events up here! Hoping we can at least have a Feb repeat this year.

[ShawniganLake]

[ShawniganLake]

 

15]With nearly 48 inches of rain in 2017, Seattle has experienced the wettest four-year stretch in recorded history.

15]Seattle typically gets about 37.5 inches of rain each year, but for four years in a row the city has recorded more than 44 inches, according to National Weather Service data. That is the first time in more than 120 years of weather records.

D

 

15]https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/congrats-seattle-completes-wettest-four-year-stretch-in-recorded-history/

Didn’t you already post this a few times?

[MossMan]

Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

 

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.

Not sure how the southern folks made out but I had nearly 18” of snow and below freezing for several days at the end of Feb. 2011 (If I’m thinking of the correct year) by the second week of Feb. I had given up on winter...then that top tier (for being late Feb) happened. Highs in the 20’s and lows in the teens for a few days.

[BLI snowman]

Didn’t you already post this a few times?

 

He's going to post it once for every inch of rain that fell in Seattle. For emphasis.

[TT-SEA]

Didn’t you already post this a few times?

 

It was on the front page of the paper today... and the year-end stats are final now.  

[Jesse]

Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

 

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.

That was a fairly cold winter. Although I don’t know about the coast or even where on the coast you lived.

 

Portland had highs near or below freezing and lows in the teens with both events. 2011 then went on to be our coldest year overall since 1985.

[Phil]

Then anthropogenic global warming grabbed the wheel again.

What do you think caused the prolonged global warming from 1700-1950? Certainly that wasn’t us.

 

Just FWIW, from 2000-present, the CO^2 increase has added 0.479W/m^2 of radiative forcing as viewed from the TOA boundary. Meanwhile, swings between phases of the northern annular mode in boreal winter alter the radiative forcing to the surface by over 10W/m^2 based on measurements from MERRA/AIRS/CERES, or in other words, equal to almost a tripling of CO^2 concentrations.

[MossMan]

[Jesse]

Have had snow on the ground for both last New Year’s Day, and today’s!

 

Nice first pic. Didn't realize you could see Oregon from your house.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Jesse]

What do you think caused the prolonged global warming from 1700-1950? Certainly that wasn’t us.

 

Just FWIW, from 2000-present, the CO^2 increase has added 0.479W/m^2 of radiative forcing as viewed from the TOA boundary. Meanwhile, swings between phases of the northern annular mode in boreal winter alter the radiative forcing to the surface by over 10W/m^2 based on measurements from MERRA/AIRS/CERES, or in other words, equal to almost a tripling of CO^2 concentrations.

 

I just want to see the WPAC's teeth get kicked in. Seems its unforeseen prowess fits well with the background warming we have seen and are continuing to see.

[MossMan]

You’d really think we were in a strong El Niño looking at the 12z Euro.

At least the cold air stays fairly close to the west, anything is possible if we can keep it close.

[MossMan]

Nice first pic. Didn't realize you could see Oregon from your house.

Think BIG Jesse...BIG! Deep snow, long snow, cold snow!!

[TT-SEA]

Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

 

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.

 

This was early January 2011... looked pretty good here.  

 

 

Followed by this in late February 2011...

 

 

 

And this was earlier that season in November: 

 

[snow_wizard]

Taking an average of SEA, BLI, and OLM December ended up -1.0.  The month consisted of really weird blend of fake cold, real cold, and low level seepage, but it was pretty wintry.  Pretty hard to complain about the month with the white Christmas and all.  The month ended up being exactly what I predicted.  Now if January can deliver.  Still a lot of hope IMO.

[MossMan]

This was early January 2011... looked pretty good here.

 

 

Followed by this in late February 2011...

 

 

 

And this was earlier that season in November:

 

You’re getting old...look how young your kids looked!

[snow_wizard]

I just want to see the WPAC's teeth get kicked in. Seems its unforeseen prowess fits well with the background warming we have seen and are continuing to see.

 

There is still nothing that has happened that is not within the scope of natural cycle.  We did have the 50 foot plus sea level rise that happened before people were any kind of a factor.  I still say we are going to see a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple of years with the solar min and post super Nino crash.

 

It's pretty hard to understand where you are coming from after the awesome winter you guys had last time around.

[Jesse]

Taking an average of SEA, BLI, and OLM December ended up -1.0.  The month consisted of really weird blend of fake cold, real cold, and low level seepage, but it was pretty wintry.  Pretty hard to complain about the month with the white Christmas and all.  The month ended up being exactly what I predicted.  Now if January can deliver.  Still a lot of hope IMO.

 

PDX ended up -0.6, but at least had a monthly average in the 30s at 39.8F.

 

They would have ended up a good deal cooler if it weren't for the torch the last four days of the month. But I agree with you, it was a wintery feeling month on the whole. Having snow on the ground and highs 35 or lower for four days around Christmas was nice.

[TT-SEA]

Have had snow on the ground for both last New Year’s Day, and today’s!

 

 

This was New Years Day last year.   We have absolutely no snow this year... not even a patch. 

 

[Jesse]

There is still nothing that has happened that is not within the scope of natural cycle.  We did have the 50 foot plus sea level rise that happened before people were any kind of a factor.  I still say we are going to see a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple of years with the solar min and post super Nino crash.

 

It seems like people have been predicting a sharp crash in global temps the next couple of years since this forum started. Phil is the pied piper.

[Jesse]

I want to move to Bend actually. Dry hot summers and usually at least a bit of snow in the winter with much colder temps. Sadly I am suffering from fairly significant epilepsy so I'm stuck where I'm at for now.

 

Where on the coast did you live again?

 

And sorry to hear that.

[MossMan]

This was New Years Day last year.   We have absolutely no snow this year... not even a patch. 

 

The patch was the remains of my Christmas morning driveway shoveling.

[snow_wizard]

It seems like people have been predicting a sharp crash in global temps the next couple of years since this forum started. Phil is the pied piper.

 

It pretty much has to happen.  We have yet to see the post Nino crash this time around that has happened with past super Ninos.  I think the next two years could be really impressive.  We shall see I guess.

[TT-SEA]

My sister and family are skiing at Mt. Hood Meadows today and they said they are sweating and skiing in sweatshirts.   45 degrees with blinding sun reflecting off the snow. 

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GEM was actually quite good and only difference between it and the ECMWF is the ECMWF splits the block which causes the eastern lobe of the block to shove cold off to our east again.  A more consolidated block (which is highly possible) could give us a GEM type result.  It's pretty easy to see on this frame how the block being split ruins the pattern.

 

At any rate until this MJO plays out I'm going to remain optimistic.  No way we will get the same results from every MJO position.  5 is the magic region for us and the ECMWF shows us in 4 just after the 10th, with every sign the wave will progress to 5.  The models will change at some point if the Maritime Continent wave verifies.

 

 

[Dave]

 

With nearly 48 inches of rain in 2017, Seattle has experienced the wettest four-year stretch in recorded history.

Seattle typically gets about 37.5 inches of rain each year, but for four years in a row the city has recorded more than 44 inches, according to National Weather Service data. That is the first time in more than 120 years of weather records.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/congrats-seattle-completes-wettest-four-year-stretch-in-recorded-history/

 

Much drier down here.

 

2014: 37"

2015: 31"

2016: 41"

2017: 32"

 

Eugene is the new Redding.

[Phil]

I just want to see the WPAC's teeth get kicked in. Seems its unforeseen prowess fits well with the background warming we have seen and are continuing to see.

You’re definitely correct about that. The connection between the west-Pacific and warm climate regimes is something all climate scientists (alarmists and deniers alike) agree on. They just disagree on which is the chicken and which is the egg.