January Weather In the PNW

[snow_wizard]

If Bryant is on here today I would be interested to get his take.  He has some talent with this stuff and I have missed his input.

[Phil]

There is still nothing that has happened that is not within the scope of natural cycle. We did have the 50 foot plus sea level rise that happened before people were any kind of a factor. I still say we are going to see a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple of years with the solar min and post super Nino crash.

 

It's pretty hard to understand where you are coming from after the awesome winter you guys had last time around.

Well, sea levels have risen almost 400 feet since the last glacial maximum. They’ve actually fallen a few meters since the Holocene thermal maximum around 7-5kyrs ago. The 12-15” rise since 1700 is a small wiggle by comparison.

[snow_wizard]

You’re definitely correct about that. The connection between the west-Pacific and warm climate regimes is something all climate scientists (alarmists and deniers alike) agree on. They just disagree on which is the chicken and which is the egg.

 

It would be pretty shocking to not see a major global cooling set in this year.  Just too many things argue for it.  That having been said you know how Mother Nature can be.

[snow_wizard]

Well, sea levels have risen almost 400 feet since the last glacial maximum. They’ve actually fallen a few meters since the Holocene thermal maximum around 7-5kyrs ago.

 

Wow!  I thought my number might be too low, but that is insane.

[Jesse]

You’re definitely correct about that. The connection between the west-Pacific and warm climate regimes is something all climate scientists (alarmists and deniers alike) agree on. They just disagree on which is the chicken and which is the egg.

I recall that convection shifting to the IO was even part of your 1993-esque early summer forecast for us last year. Didn’t really pan out.

 

I’ve noticed you have done great with the timing of warm spells and ridging out here, but any troughing or significant cool spell for us seems to be much more fickle/difficult to predict, and has a much higher bust potential.

[MossMan]

Just hit 32, another chilly day.

[Jesse]

It would be pretty shocking to not see a major global cooling set in this year. Just too many things argue for it. That having been said you know how Mother Nature can be.

You’ve been saying this for years dude.

[ShawniganLake]

The 12z GEM was actually quite good and only difference between it and the ECMWF is the ECMWF splits the block which causes the eastern lobe of the block to shove cold off to our east again. A more consolidated block (which is highly possible) could give us a GEM type result. It's pretty easy to see on this frame how the block being split ruins the pattern.

 

At any rate until this MJO plays out I'm going to remain optimistic. No way we will get the same results from every MJO position. 5 is the magic region for us and the ECMWF shows us in 4 just after the 10th, with every sign the wave will progress to 5. The models will change at some point if the Maritime Continent wave verifies.

Phase 5?

 

[Phil]

It would be pretty shocking to not see a major global cooling set in this year. Just too many things argue for it. That having been said you know how Mother Nature can be.

Major cooling takes some time..the oceans have a very high thermal capacity. There needs to be a circulation change that starts removing more OHC through an increase in tropical convection and wind speed..aka a negative global annular mode. That hasn’t happened yet.

[ShawniganLake]

The 12z GEM was actually quite good and only difference between it and the ECMWF is the ECMWF splits the block which causes the eastern lobe of the block to shove cold off to our east again. A more consolidated block (which is highly possible) could give us a GEM type result. It's pretty easy to see on this frame how the block being split ruins the pattern.

 

At any rate until this MJO plays out I'm going to remain optimistic. No way we will get the same results from every MJO position. 5 is the magic region for us and the ECMWF shows us in 4 just after the 10th, with every sign the wave will progress to 5. The models will change at some point if the Maritime Continent wave verifies.

Phase 5?

 

 

[Phil]

I recall that convection shifting to the IO was even part of your 1993-esque early summer forecast for us last year. Didn’t really pan out.

 

I’ve noticed you have done great with the timing of warm spells and ridging out here, but any troughing or significant cool spell for us seems to be much more fickle/difficult to predict, and has a much higher bust potential.

So far, that’s definitely been true. I’ve done better on this side of the country, but you guys seem to have had more cards stacked against you

[Jesse]

So far, that’s definitely been true. I’ve done better on this side of the country, but you guys seem to have had more cards stacked against you

Just one card. Joker/WPAC.

[BLI snowman]

Much drier down here.

 

2014: 37"

2015: 31"

2016: 41"

2017: 32"

 

Eugene is the new Redding.

 

I'm pretty convinced that EUG's rain gauge has changed or become faulty. Compare their precip record to Cottage Grove's, which has a similar historic average, and is even further south aka more Redding-ized.

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or1897

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Where on the coast did you live again?

 

And sorry to hear that.

In Hebo, near Pacific City. It's much nicer in Monmouth, as last winter illustrated with a lot more snow in the valley compared to the coast.

[Phil]

Just one card. Joker/WPAC.

[snow_wizard]

You’ve been saying this for years dude.

 

The super Nino only ended about a year and half ago.

[snow_wizard]

Phase 5?

 

 

A12E35BA-FDE4-4972-A492-BDBB10F52410.png

 

Yup.  In spite of what that shows many of our big blasts come with phase 5.  I've been watching this stuff for years and I'm 100% on that.  When the wave gets to the MC it causes the SOI to skyrocket.  That often triggers a favorable pattern change for us.  It is possible the sequence of events that triggers a Western trough happens when the MJO is in 5, but the wave may be progressed beyond that when it actually hits.  Maybe that accounts for the graphic not matching up.

[ShawniganLake]

Yup. In spite of what that shows many of our big blasts come with phase 5. I've been watching this stuff for years and I'm 100% on that.

I don’t know how accurate those NOAA panels are but that is interesting. Maybe it’s an all or nothing type of thing for us.

[snow_wizard]

Just hit 32, another chilly day.

 

No doubt the northern half of the state has some low level cold air in play.  The Fraser outflow is still cold and yet higher elevations near there are much warmer.

[snow_wizard]

I don’t know how accurate those NOAA panels are but that is interesting. Maybe it’s an all or nothing type of thing for us.

 

I added some to my post that you might want to read.  I think 5 triggers it, but the wave may be move beyond by the time it actually hits us.  I guess it would be more proper to say 5 sets it in motion.

[wx_statman]

The December monthly record? Wow.

 

Yeah, -40 was the monthly record at the old COOP station that existed from 1908-1999. The current readings are coming from an ASOS station in town. Still, they bottomed out at -44 this morning. Within 3F of the all-time record at the old COOP, which was -47 in January 1916. 

[Deweydog]

2018z!

[Phil]

Yeah, -40 was the monthly record at the old COOP station that existed from 1908-1999. The current readings are coming from an ASOS station in town. Still, they bottomed out at -44 this morning. Within 3F of the all-time record at the old COOP, which was -47 in January 1916.

That’s impressive! Thanks for the information.

[ShawniganLake]

[Winterdog]

Topped out at 33F today after a low of 26.  A pleasantly chilly New Years day.  

[Winterdog]

18Z looking promising out to 138

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18Z looking promising out to 138

A step in the right direction. But we need a lot more notches to move. Still not many freezing temps for the lowlands.

[MossMan]

Topped out at 33F today after a low of 26. A pleasantly chilly New Years day.

Same here, ground is quite hard and frost in the shade still.

[Gradient Keeper]

I want to move to Bend actually. Dry hot summers and usually at least a bit of snow in the winter with much colder temps. Sadly I am suffering from fairly significant epilepsy so I'm stuck where I'm at for now.

Bend is amazing. Wow, really sorry to hear that. I hope things improve soon.

 

--

00z GFS in 3 hours 53 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bend is amazing. Wow, really sorry to hear that. I hope this improves soon.

Me too. I am going down to the Bay Area for another scan and will probly have surgery at OHSU sometime this year.

 

And it was more like 18zzzzzzz drunk uncle hangover.

[wx_statman]

January 1916.

 

I remember you posting some numbers for your area from Jan 1916. That month was cuckoo. 

[Phil]

Me too. I am going down to the Bay Area for another scan and will probly have surgery at OHSU sometime this year.

 

And it was more like 18zzzzzzz drunk uncle hangover.

Sorry to hear, man. Hope you find a solution.

[ShawniganLake]

I remember you posting some numbers for your area from Jan 1916. That month was cuckoo.

135” of snow in the first 40 days of 1916. Almost as cold as January 1950

[snow_wizard]

The 18z has some notable improvements.  Still not great, but better.

[snow_wizard]

135” of snow in the first 40 days of 1916. Almost as cold as January 1950

 

That winter was insane.  Seattle had about 60" in that time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Been cold up here. Warmest it has been is 15 degrees with -2 for the lowest.

[Winterdog]

18Z=same old stuff.  Ridge moves too far east, some back door and cold pool action at best.  

[Gradient Keeper]

The 18z has some notable improvements.  Still not great, but better.

Yeah. I do see pretty good backdoor cold into Columbia Basin, but the flow overall is far too progressive.

 

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 55 minutes

[snow_wizard]

It appears we aren't going to be able to escape an Aleutian low before the pattern evolves into something really good.  Maybe it will give us a reset.  Still a chance of another minor cold shot around a week out though.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah. I do see pretty good backdoor cold into Columbia Basin, but the flow overall is far too progressive.

 

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 55 minutes

 

The progressiveness of the pattern could change on future runs, but a lot of the models / ensembles show it.  The 12z Canadian had a really good progression, but it's an outlier right now.  When it comes right down it getting hit any time in January would be great, but I think all of us are impatient right now.