January Weather In the PNW

[Geos]

Same with up near my cabin, I have seen it snow at 2000ft in the area with a 4k snow level. Impossible to predict the area with much detail.

 

Wow, talk about a huge margin of error!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Eastern slopes look to cash in pretty good late week.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/washington/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180112-1200z.html

 

Looking forward to it.  Places to my west, like Lake Wenatchee and Plain, will get even more than me.  There is also a place called Holden Village that you access by taking the ferry on Lake Chelan and then a bus to the village, they might get 2 feet of snow.  One of these winters we will go there.

[Geos]

Looking forward to it.  Places to my west, like Lake Wenatchee and Plain, will get even more than me.  There is also a place called Holden Village that you access by taking the ferry on Lake Chelan and then a bus to the village, they might get 2 feet of snow.  One of these winters we will go there.

 

Yeah easy to tell those areas get a little more moisture. Been to Lake Chelan twice and read about the history of the lake. Plan on visiting Chelan this winter still.

Better map yet: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/chelan/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180112-1200z.html

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah easy to tell those areas get a little more moisture. Been to Lake Chelan twice and read about the history of the lake. Plan on visiting Chelan this winter still.

Better map yet: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/chelan/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180112-1200z.html

3rd deepest lake in us and #28 in world. Pretty cool.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yeah easy to tell those areas get a little more moisture. Been to Lake Chelan twice and read about the history of the lake. Plan on visiting Chelan this winter still.

Better map yet: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/chelan/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180112-1200z.html

It's nice that this will pinpoint your location.  Last night it showed over 2 inches of precip as snow for my location, but I never believed that.  That would challenge some all time records, think this is a bit more realistic.  

[Blizzard777]

Toasty 72 here in Austin Tx

Working outside at my Mother in laws place.

Just doesn’t feel right

 

Jim

[Phil]

Toasty 72 here in Austin Tx

Working outside at my Mother in laws place.

Just doesn’t feel right

 

Jim

Our temperature is up into the 40s today, and it literally feels like a heatwave compared to last weekend.

 

I’d be perfectly happy with the cold staying out west for another month or even longer. A few paste bombs and subfreezing days in February would satisfy me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z!!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

First 7 days of the Drunk Uncle are sober

[Phil]

If we don’t move into a consistent -PDO/-PNA this spring/summer with the oncoming -QBO, then it might be possible to conclude that we’ve entered into a somewhat longer term +PDO/+PNA system state, and that the ongoing Niña is destructively interfering with it in the shorter term.

 

Or, another intriguing possibility is that the PDO/PNA system has (once again) gone dormant. After all, the PDO/PNA system has only been “active” since the mid/late 19th century. Before that, there was no consistent mode of variability there from ~1300 - ~1840, irrespective of ENSO/etc. It was in a very deep negative state before that, from ~ 900-1300.

[Jesse]

If we don’t move into a consistent -PDO/-PNA this spring/summer with the oncoming -QBO, then it might be possible to conclude that we’ve entered into a somewhat longer term +PDO/+PNA system state, and that the ongoing Niña is destructively interfering with it in the shorter term.

 

Or, another intriguing possibility is that the PDO/PNA system has (once again) gone dormant. After all, the PDO/PNA system has only been “active” since the mid/late 19th century. Before that, there was no consistent mode of variability there from ~1300 - ~1840, irrespective of ENSO/etc. It was in a very deep negative state before that, from ~ 900-1300.

Scary stuff.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Toasty 72 here in Austin Tx

Working outside at my Mother in laws place.

Just doesn’t feel right

Jim

64 here in college station

 

I will be in Austin on Thursday morning

[Deweydog]

#528@240!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ton's of mountain snow coming on the 18z.

[MossMan]

Stoned uncle looking better!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If we don’t move into a consistent -PDO/-PNA this spring/summer with the oncoming -QBO, then it might be possible to conclude that we’ve entered into a somewhat longer term +PDO/+PNA system state, and that the ongoing Niña is destructively interfering with it in the shorter term.

 

Or, another intriguing possibility is that the PDO/PNA system has (once again) gone dormant. After all, the PDO/PNA system has only been “active” since the mid/late 19th century. Before that, there was no consistent mode of variability there from ~1300 - ~1840, irrespective of ENSO/etc. It was in a very deep negative state before that, from ~ 900-1300.

So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?

[MossMan]

Snow at my location at hr 264!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Tidbits' 2m temp slides are slow AF compared to the MSLP/precip

[TT-SEA]

Tidbits' 2m temp slides are slow AF compared to the MSLP/precip

 

I have seen all sorts of issues with speed on Tropical Tidbits while loading maps.   Never happens on my phone.  

[Bryant]

So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?

Pretty sure you can draw your own conclusions. Even less snow than you already get would be one...

[Jesse]

So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?

I’ll probably be moving for starters. Call me a climate refugee.

[Phil]

So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?

Depends which one (if either) is correct. The first one would make long range forecasting easier, though it wouldn’t be well-received on this forum.

 

The second one would be a forecasting nightmare and could produce a number of outcomes, from cold/dry to warm/dry to warm/wet to cold/wet, to a combination of these with no tendency or bias towards any in the long run.

[Jesse]

Depends which one (if either) is correct. The first one would make long range forecasting easier. The second one would be a nightmare in that regard.

Are you just sitting around trying to dream up nightmare scenarios for us lately?

[Deweydog]

So what implications does that have for us in the PNW in the coming decades if this assertion is correct?

We'll have winters and summers. Some cold, some warm, some just right!

[WeatherArchive]

Stoned uncle looking better!

JUST 10 DAYS AWAY! OH MY GOD!   (Head explodes).http://www.cool-smileys.com/images/288.gif   All right everybody rinse and spit!  Just kidding!  

 

Hopefully we can get some decent gusts out of the Thursday system.  There is 0.83 of rain since yesterday afternoon.

[Winterdog]

Snow at my location at hr 264!

Unfortunately it's at 1500'.

[Phil]

Are you just sitting around trying to dream up nightmare scenarios for us lately?

The PNA/PDO system was dormant during the LIA..that doesn’t mean the same thing as a protracted positive phase. I don’t know what will happen, but we’re obviously not in a -PDO/-PNA background state right now, despite a very healthy La Niña.

 

And before you ask, no, it’s not because of global warming..the system does this stuff all the time, for reasons mostly unknown.

 

Heck, it might be a good thing. The MWP was actually dominated by -PNA/-PDO. Perhaps that’s *not* where we want the system state, long term. There’s a theory out there that the deep -PDO/-PNA from the 1950s-1970s (strongest -PNA/-PDO since the MWP) actually preconditioned the system for the 1970s climate shift to +PDO/+PNA/+NAO, almost like the backswing of a pendulum.

[Phil]

Again, I don’t have the answers. I’m just throwing some ideas out in the open for debate.

[MossMan]

Unfortunately it's at 1500'.

It shows a pretty blue color right over our houses!

[TT-SEA]

It shows a pretty blue color right over our houses!

 

The GFS surface maps are very optimistic about the colors it uses for precipitation... particularly on the west side of the mountains.   It appears to use the same parameters that typically mean snow in the Midwest and NE and that does not usually work here. 

[HighlandExperience]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know...The GFS kinda starts getting good...Then it all goes to hell.

[Jesse]

You know...The GFS kinda starts getting good...Then it all goes to hell.

Perma +PNA already taking hold.

[TT-SEA]

Randy... payback time today for the c-zone which has been parked over the I-90 corridor all day while its dry up there. 

 

But I guess its better now than on the weekend.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The GFS surface maps are very optimistic about the colors it uses for precipitation... particularly on the west side of the mountains.   It appears to use the same parameters that typically mean snow in the Midwest and NE and that does not usually work here. 

And hour 264 is much lower resolution, so the grid areas are that much bigger, meaning areas that might actually get snow are lumped in with areas that will get rain, but the grid has to choose one precip type for that really large area (the lower the resolution, the larger the size of one section of the grid), and it makes it look like the whole area gets snow (or rain), when really only parts do.

[Front Ranger]

It would be nice to be able to come in here and not read a post where people are attacking other people.

 

Odd timing. I didn't see any of that going on this morning.

 

Especially compared to some recent days.

[MossMan]

Randy... payback time today for the c-zone which has been parked over the I-90 corridor all day while its dry up there.

 

But I guess its better now than on the weekend.

Yeah I’m currently looking out at sunshine from my office window! I had a bonus day off yesterday and it was dry so that was nice!

And it looks to be just plain old rain at Snoqualmie currently.

[Front Ranger]

You know...The GFS kinda starts getting good...Then it all goes to hell.

 

I'm paying more attention to this, which is improving.

 

[Phil]

Random weather/climate stat (Graph by Dr. Klotzbach).

 

December 2017 featured the second highest Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on record. The AMM is defined by the contrast between SSTAs between the NATL and SATL.

 

 

[The Swamp]

I would take his input over yours any day of the week.

That's not saying much about you.