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January Weather In the PNW

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#3351
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:07 PM

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Don't recall that. And it's actually now two weeks into the month and there's literally no support for any cold anomalies until the 20th, at the earliest. There's plenty to support the idea that you want badly for your forecast to verify though.

 

It's in the winter predictions thread.

 

I've said it before, with seasonal forecasting, I never expect to hit every month perfectly. That would just be lucky. I just try to be generally right for the season.

 

No denying there's a long way to go before we can grade this winter. Especially since my seasonal forecast was Dec-Mar.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3352
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:08 PM

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I bet there would be a way to tell that without even looking at the observed weather, just using frequency and tone of certain posts here as a proxy.

 

That never seems to fail.



#3353
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:09 PM

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Its not much different than the 00Z run.

 

I was not talking about nothing but warmth.   I said the next below freezing day at the pass was on day 8.   Now its day 7.    And specifically in reference to better skiing conditions.  

 

My son was not happy about it.   His response was 'its frickin January... come on'

 

If snow at the pass and low to mid 40s with rain in Seattle is our goal and considered success in the middle of January... then bravo.   We will achieve it!  

 

You mentioned upper 40s in Seattle at day 10. Whatever, you're clearly in a bitchy mood tonight.  :P


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3354
Jesse

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:10 PM

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It's interesting because we all laughed off the loose connections to the big December +PNA pattern.

 

I remember getting into a very lengthy argument with you about that that eventually went to PM.

 

You were actually the one arguing against 2005 similarities, or at least trying to frame things in a manner that highlighted differences at the surface while I was just attempting to point out the rough similarities at 500mb.



#3355
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:10 PM

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It's interesting because we all laughed off the loose connections to the big December +PNA pattern.

 

Tough to argue this January has been, or looks to be, much at all like Jan 2006, though.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3356
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:12 PM

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It's interesting because we all laughed off the loose connections to the big December +PNA pattern.

 

Chickens are coming home to roost. I also recall making a post back in October, about how 9/15-10/15 was the coolest at PDX since 2005. And of course, our holiday week 1" snow bonanza was VERY 2005-ish. 



#3357
BLI snowman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:13 PM

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This is tracking to be our lamest -ENSO January since 2006.


2014 was pretty sad.
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#3358
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:14 PM

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This ain't happening.

 

Attached File  cd71.218.95.91.11.19.14.6.prcp.png   399.3KB   5 downloads

 

 


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3359
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:16 PM

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Last year did not have drought conditions. It was an extremely wet spring. Hot summer temperatures tend to dry the soil and vegetation out quickly regardless, though.
 
We also had extensive smoke from the fires in the Cariboo region of BC and down south in the Siskiyous, among other places. Not just the Eagle Creek fire.


Yeah hot summer temps dry the soil fast and lately we've had early starts to summer with hot temperatures in June. So the soil is very dry once August comes around. That probably plays a bigger factor in it.

#3360
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:17 PM

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2014 was pretty sad.

 

That crossed my mind. I gave it a pass for a 25 degree reading it produced. 



#3361
Jesse

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:17 PM

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Yeah hot summer temps dry the soil fast and lately we've had early starts to summer with hot temperatures in June. So the soil is very dry once August comes around. That probably plays a bigger factor in it.


Yup. Point being of course if you love summer heat and hate wildfires you will probably end up being disappointed somewhere.

#3362
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:18 PM

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This ain't happening.

 

attachicon.gifcd71.218.95.91.11.19.14.6.prcp.png

 

January 2006 was in a class of its own for torching across the northern tier. Unlike this month. 

 

Our backyard reality wasn't much different however. Lame then, lame now. 



#3363
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:19 PM

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This ain't happening.

cd71.218.95.91.11.19.14.6.prcp.png


Yeah Tulsa had a 60/33 average that month or something insane like that. About a +12 anomaly. This month I think they are well below average. Or will be after next week at least.

Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3364
Jesse

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:24 PM

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I remember getting into a very lengthy argument with you about that that eventually went to PM.

You were actually the one arguing against 2005 similarities, or at least trying to frame things in a manner that highlighted differences at the surface while I was just attempting to point out the rough similarities at 500mb.


I just don't think it will be all that similar, other than the fact it's overlaying the same chunk of calendar. Beyond that the comparisons are pretty sketchy given the fact it was such a hybrid. This one, at least to begin with is pretty much a straight up +PNA bomb. It's nothing personal.



#3365
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:25 PM

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January 2006 was such a joke. I've explored some of its numbers before. Bismarck, ND never fell below 5 degrees that month. Every other January since 1874 has fallen to at least -7. That's a mind-boggling gap. 

 

Prince George, BC didn't fall below 12. For comparison, January 1950 never rose above 14...and fell to -58. 



#3366
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:25 PM

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January 2006 was in a class of its own for torching across the northern tier. Unlike this month. 

 

Our backyard reality wasn't much different however. Lame then, lame now. 

 

Lame to this point? Sure. 

 

But overall, really very little like 2006. Obviously the national pattern has been vastly different, but even locally, PDX has had a low in the 20s this month. They hadn't had one lower than 37 to this point in 2006. Plus, I don't recall much snowfall/ice around the border in BC in 2006.

 

That month also torched the PNW all the way through to the end, and that looks unlikely this month.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3367
Deweydog

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:25 PM

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I remember getting into a very lengthy argument with you about that that eventually went to PM.

You were actually the one arguing against 2005 similarities, or at least trying to frame things in a manner that highlighted differences at the surface while I was just attempting to point out the rough similarities at 500mb.


I simply pointed out in a very diplomatic manner that the 500mb nuances of the 2005 pattern made it unique with two distinct clippers and a backdoor push just prior to the transition. Last month's big ridge was far more traditional from a mid winter ridge/inversion perspective.

But yes, I'm sure you flew off the handle over PM about it...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3368
Jesse

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:28 PM

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I simply pointed out in a very diplomatic manner that the 500mb nuances of the 2005 pattern made it unique with two distinct clippers and a backdoor push just prior to the transition. Last month's big ridge was far more traditional from a mid winter ridge/inversion perspective.

But yes, I'm sure you flew off the handle over PM about it...


Actually not at all. The conversation was mostly civil, aside from the typical condescending stuff from you displayed here.

I posted the last message of it to refresh your memory.

#3369
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:29 PM

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Lame to this point? Sure. 

 

But overall, really very little like 2006. Obviously the national pattern has been vastly different, but even locally, PDX has had a low in the 20s this month. They hadn't had one lower than 37 to this point in 2006. Plus, I don't recall much snowfall/ice around the border in BC in 2006.

 

That month also torched the PNW all the way through to the end, and that looks unlikely this month.

 

Agreed on all counts. You have to remember what I said. This month is tracking to be the lamest -ENSO January since 2006. That's still my opinion.  ;)

 

I'll be jumping for joy if we get slammed later this month. Or fall to 25. 


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#3370
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:30 PM

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Jan 1996 was totally lame for PDX until the last week of the month. Food for thought!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3371
Deweydog

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:32 PM

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This ain't happening.

cd71.218.95.91.11.19.14.6.prcp.png


Not really the point. It's a frustration analog.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3372
Jesse

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:32 PM

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Jan 1996 was totally lame for PDX until the last week of the month. Food for thought!


January 1989 also was pretty warm. PDX hit 60 the first week of the month, and 56 the week before the blast.

#3373
Deweydog

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:34 PM

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Jan 1996 was totally lame for PDX until the last week of the month. Food for thought!


For those not following along, Flatiron is saying things could change.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3374
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:34 PM

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Jan 1996 was totally lame for PDX until the last week of the month. Food for thought!

 

That one got going mid-month. We had the severe-warned squall line on 1/15, then a surprise 2" to 4" out in NE Portland on the 18th followed by 50 mph south wind gusts that evening. Little bit of fun at least. 


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#3375
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:36 PM

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Yup. Point being of course if you love summer heat and hate wildfires you will probably end up being disappointed somewhere.


Last year's Eagle Creek fire was just bad. We were suppose to make a run at record high temperatures but the wildfires kept temperatures down more than anticipated. If not for those kids we probably would have had clear skies and record high temps.

#3376
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:36 PM

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1956 is one of the better examples of a lame January that flipped to awesome during the last week. 


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#3377
Jesse

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:38 PM

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Last year's Eagle Creek fire was just bad. We were suppose to make a run at record high temperatures but the wildfires kept temperatures down more than anticipated. If not for those kids we probably would have had clear skies and record high temps.


Missing out on record highs was definitely the worst aspect of that event.

#3378
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:38 PM

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It's in the winter predictions thread.

I've said it before, with seasonal forecasting, I never expect to hit every month perfectly. That would just be lucky. I just try to be generally right for the season.

No denying there's a long way to go before we can grade this winter. Especially since my seasonal forecast was Dec-Mar.

March what?... so we can be fair and accurate. Because I am sure March will feature some marginal cold and some wet snow. I believe that is about the time a good winter type pattern should establish. Still, it would be a pretty epic fail of a winter overall, even with a cold and wet March— which I suspect will be the outcome.

#3379
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:39 PM

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Not really the point. It's a frustration analog.

 

Weenies gone wild!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3380
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:43 PM

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January 1989 also was pretty warm. PDX hit 60 the first week of the month, and 56 the week before the blast.

 

Yep. Or you have Jan 1990, which featured a huge blowtorch the first half of the month, including a 61 on the 9th.

 

More than a couple of us acknowledged this could end up being a backloaded winter. Nothing really shocking has happened to this point.

 

If there was no sign in the models still of things trending cooler the second half of the month, then I might start getting worried.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3381
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:44 PM

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Missing out on record highs was definitely the worst aspect of that event.


Well of course nobody wants their homes burned down. I live near the Gorge so for a while I was actually concerned it might reach my house. The wildfire was out of control.

#3382
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:45 PM

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March what?... so we can be fair and accurate. Because I am sure March will be some marginal cold and some wet snow as that is about the time a good winter type pattern should establish. Still would a pretty epic fail of a winter overall even with our cold and wet March which I suspect will be the outcome.

 

I think there's a very good chance some fun will happen well before March.

 

I also think it's ironic that Tim and Andrew were the ones bitching the most this AM about the winter so far, as they both will probably have huge second halves.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3383
Jesse

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:46 PM

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I think there's a very good chance some fun will happen well before March.

I also think it's ironic that Tim and Andrew were the ones bitching the most this AM about the winter so far, as they both will probably have huge second halves.


I will agree with that. Two baby-men living in the foothills.

#3384
TT-SEA

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:46 PM

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You mentioned upper 40s in Seattle at day 10. Whatever, you're clearly in a bitchy mood tonight.  :P

 

Not at all.   I am in a great mood.   And its Friday evening before a decent weekend.

 

It was about the same... mid 40s vs upper 40s.   I will have to remember to jump on all runs immediately or otherwise I am hiding the ECMWF.   I am pretty tired right now after a busy week... what If I cannot make it until almost 11 when the 00Z run finishes?   Am I hiding cold and snow maps while I sleep??    

 

Like I don't post cold and snow maps?   I probably post the most of those maps of all people here as well.   So now I am running and hiding from marginally different ECMWF runs?    :lol:

 

Its so stupid.  



#3385
Phil

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:47 PM

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I think there's a very good chance some fun will happen well before March.

I also think it's ironic that Tim and Andrew were the ones bitching the most this AM about the winter so far, as they both will probably have huge second halves.


He’s going all in!
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

Live Weather Stream:

#3386
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:47 PM

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That one got going mid-month. We had the severe-warned squall line on 1/15, then a surprise 2" to 4" out in NE Portland on the 18th followed by 50 mph south wind gusts that evening. Little bit of fun at least. 

 

Yeah, but PDX didn't even have a low below 33 until the 27th. That's pretty lame.

 

This month looks to turn much more active in about a week.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3387
Phil

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:48 PM

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My wager: We’re back into +PNA by the middle of February. Probably intraseasonal, but it could also be an extended affair.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

Live Weather Stream:

#3388
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:50 PM

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My wager: We’re back into +PNA by the middle of February. 

 

It's getting pushed back...good sign.  ;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3389
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:51 PM

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My wager: We’re back into +PNA by the middle of February. Probably intraseasonal, but it could also be an extended affair.


And we won’t have sun angles helping us score inversions.

Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3390
Phil

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:52 PM

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You disagree?


I’m getting more worried about west-Pacific interference.

Those waters from 0-20N just refuse to cool down..it’s been the Achilles heel this entire winter, so why would that change now? The Siberian Arctic discharge might shake things up, but that process involves another +PNA/jet extension, and when that completes, there’s the question of where the MJO is, etc.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

Live Weather Stream:

#3391
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:52 PM

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For the record I think February will be cooler and wetter than average. I am actually still fairly optimistic about February.

Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3392
TT-SEA

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:54 PM

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I think there's a very good chance some fun will happen well before March.

 

I also think it's ironic that Tim and Andrew were the ones bitching the most this AM about the winter so far, as they both will probably have huge second halves.

 

Its all relative dummy... based on location.   And I am not complaining about this winter at all.   Its been pretty good in my opinion.    Lots of dry days... plenty of sunshine here.    And a white Christmas too.  

 

I said the same thing about last winter at this point and the Feb-April happened.     I expect something similar this year.     

 

Luckily we are about to embark on a busy travel period from now until early May.   



#3393
wx_statman

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:55 PM

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Yeah, but PDX didn't even have a low below 33 until the 27th. That's pretty lame.

 

This month looks to turn much more active in about a week.

 

True, PDX temps were about as lame as it gets for January until the last week. 



#3394
Phil

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:56 PM

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It's getting pushed back...good sign. ;)


No. This would be a separate +PNA episode from the current one (which has yet to peak).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

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#3395
weatherfan2012

Posted 12 January 2018 - 06:59 PM

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I’m getting more worried about west-Pacific interference.
Those waters from 0-20N just refuse to cool down..it’s been the Achilles heel this entire winter, so why would that change now? The Siberian Arctic discharge might shake things up, but that process involves another +PNA/jet extension, and when that completes, there’s the question of where the MJO is, etc.

yeah this certainly isn't a pattern that is in any hurry in changeing in the means it will change sooner or later but if one thinks it going to be an over night thing you maybe dissapointed.

#3396
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:02 PM

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Its all relative dummy... based on location. And I am not complaining about this winter at all. Its been pretty good in my opinion. Lots of dry days... plenty of sunshine here. And a white Christmas too.

I said the same thing about last winter at this point and the Feb-April happened. I expect something similar this year.

Luckily we are about to embark on a busy travel period from now until early May.


We are going to be doing a ton of traveling too. I am worried I will miss something good in March 😀.

Oklahoma in a couple weeks, then DC in March for work and then an extra week going to Kentucky and Pennsylvania. New Orleans in April and then San Diego in May. I’m getting exhausted thinking about it.

Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3397
Front Ranger

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:02 PM

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No. This would be a separate +PNA episode from the current one (which has yet to peak).


I'm talking about the +PNA you said would return following the brief "jet extension" coming up next.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3398
Phil

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:06 PM

Phil

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I'm talking about the +PNA you said would return following the brief "jet extension" coming up next.


???

Jet extension = +PNA.
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#3399
Phil

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:07 PM

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yeah this certainly isn't a pattern that is in any hurry in changeing in the means it will change sooner or later but if one thinks it going to be an over night thing you maybe dissapointed.


I’ve been all over the place lately..I can’t do it. :lol:

Such a stupid regime to forecast. We have the tropics in a solidly Niña state and the extratropics trying to pull things back into a Niño-esque state. Except for the WPAC burst next month, I don’t know what will happen.

The last time this sort of think happened was back in January 2013. And it culminated in a SSW. Maybe...?
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#3400
MossMan

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:07 PM

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This last week has been truly awful, 40’s with rain, 40’s with light rain, 40’s and drizzle...I would love to have December weather again...dry and cool.