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January Weather In the PNW


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Phil is rooting for our demise

Actually (being honest here) I really want to see you guys score during this favorable tropical forcing window.

 

Which is why I’m pissed off you guys are rooting for a raging Pacific jet, because it’s going to mess everything up for you if it happens. Maybe folks in BC/Alaska might want that, but otherwise, lol.

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Actually (being honest here) I really want to see you guys score during this favorable tropical forcing window.

 

Which is why I’m pissed off you guys are rooting for a raging Pacific jet, because it’s going to mess everything up for you if it happens. Maybe folks in BC/Alaska might want that, but otherwise, lol.

It’s the same reason Americans voted for trump. We need a reset and this aint working for us.

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Actually (being honest here) I really want to see you guys score during this favorable tropical forcing window.

 

Which is why I’m pissed off you guys are rooting for a raging Pacific jet, because it’s going to mess everything up for you if it happens. Maybe folks in BC/Alaska might want that, but otherwise, lol.

BC/Alaska often do well with similar patterns as WA/OR, quite unbelievably.

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With an active jet those warm anomalies can only move east. The NW Canadian interior can quickly develop cold airmasses at this time of year.

 

gfs_T850a_namer_41.png

Yeah, and it’ll get blasted away even faster without a supportive Siberian Arctic mass gradient.

 

This is your airmass..850s at -3C, still stuck in the clown range.

 

3LtSOHd.png

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Actually (being honest here) I really want to see you guys score during this favorable tropical forcing window.

 

Which is why I’m pissed off you guys are rooting for a raging Pacific jet, because it’s going to mess everything up for you if it happens. Maybe folks in BC/Alaska might want that, but otherwise, lol.

It's likely.

 

It is what it is.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Guest El nina

I would really like a good storm train to hit the PNW, and last all through spring. I know it's unpopular opinion, but I really see no downside to rain. I went for a run today and got totally drenched and it felt great. It's also comforting to look out the window, see the rain and know it's translating to cascade snow. A "crappy" summer would be a nice change after the past 4 torches, too.

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A NE-Siberian High does develop by D11 along with the antecedent -NAM, but that’s way out there in the clown range.

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00z is okay

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I would really like a good storm train to hit the PNW, and last all through spring. I know it's unpopular opinion, but I really see no downside to rain. I went for a run today and got totally drenched and it felt great. It's also comforting to look out the window, see the rain and know it's translating to cascade snow. A "crappy" summer would be a nice change after the past 4 torches, too.

 

Jesse just made sweet love to this post.

 

Tim puked all over it.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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I would really like a good storm train to hit the PNW, and last all through spring. I know it's unpopular opinion, but I really see no downside to rain. I went for a run today and got totally drenched and it felt great. It's also comforting to look out the window, see the rain and know it's translating to cascade snow. A "crappy" summer would be a nice change after the past 4 torches, too.

Tim has officially blacklisted you.

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I would really like a good storm train to hit the PNW, and last all through spring. I know it's unpopular opinion, but I really see no downside to rain. I went for a run today and got totally drenched and it felt great. It's also comforting to look out the window, see the rain and know it's translating to cascade snow. A "crappy" summer would be a nice change after the past 4 torches, too.

I like this guy!

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You’ve gotta love the clown range GFS. Somehow it goes from this:

 

g4Z4IYi.png

 

 

To this, in less than a week, without even moving the polar vortex out of Eurasia. Lol.

 

Z3UzZDV.png

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We're making progress.  Collectively the GEM and GFS are quite blocky and the details are getting close to what we want.  I will be very interested to see the analogs to the GFS.  It has quite a few differences from previous runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We're making progress. Collectively the GEM and GFS are quite blocky and the details are getting close to what we want. I will be very interested to see the analogs to the GFS. It has quite a few differences from previous runs.

Let us know how the analogs look when they come out, very curious to see!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The 00z is a great example of how SSW events can affect weather/climate across the globe.

 

When the PV weakens/disintegrates, that frigid air, depleted of tri-atomic molecules, is no longer dynamically bound to the pole, and can spill equatorward at-will. This process starts a chain reaction that ignites deep tropical convection and cools/raises the tropical tropopause.

 

2-meter temperatures at D7-8:

fSzHrZa.png

 

2-meter temperatures at D15-16:

zOVandS.png

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Yea that is amazing. I might download the app. To bad the euro isn’t on that site.

 

And you can easily zoom in and out to any place on the planet.     Looks like you can only go back to June 2016 though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The WRF shows East Vancouver Island getting slammed once again on Thursday morning. That area has done incredibly well given how marginal the setups have been this year. I'd like to move back up there some day if only the employment situation could support it.

 

wa_snow24.48.0000.gif

Euro shows some snow up here tomorrow night. Not as much as the WRF and overall is less generous with the precip farther north on the island

 

5C321913-D993-459F-A998-A3931E35C804.png

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Euro shows some snow up here tomorrow night. Not as much as the WRF and overall is less generous with the precip farther north on the island

 

attachicon.gif5C321913-D993-459F-A998-A3931E35C804.png

 

Good chance you'll see something out of this. I suspect Nanaimo will be the center of the action this go around. Definitely better to be north in these situations for hanging onto the cold air as the front drags north. Sucks to be stuck in Victoria so close, but missing out once again. I can't remember the last time a marginal situation produced more than an inch here, but then geography is working against us (the Nov 2nd event probably would have had it happened this month).

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Things are finally coming together.  It appears the GFS ensemble is in error showing the mean trough position moving off the coast after briefly digging directly over us.  Probably mishandling the MJO.  Anyway here is the ECMWF ensemble during the 10 to 15 day period.  Besides the 500mb level looking good the 850mb temp anomalies are several degrees C below normal.  No question the models are beginning to react to the reshuffling in the tropics now.

 

 

post-222-0-90397800-1515572329_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Things are finally coming together.  It appears the GFS ensemble is in error showing the mean trough position moving off the coast after briefly digging directly over us.  Probably mishandling the MJO.  Anyway here is the ECMWF ensemble during the 10 to 15 day period.  Besides the 500mb level looking good the 850mb temp anomalies are several degrees C below normal.  No question the models are beginning to react to the reshuffling in the tropics now.

Seems encouraging. Now we just need the ridge to slide further east. Ironic considering earlier this Winter the ridge/block setup too far to the east around 140-130 W.

 

--

6z GFS in 1 hour

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The La Nina is really going nuts now.  Nino 3.4 has dropped below -1.6 on the latest update with an insane trade wind burst going.  Maybe this will trigger the round of global cooling we are due for following the spike caused by the super Nino a while back.  A Nina of this strength means a cold spring is pretty much a done deal for us.  I still say I will be astonished if we don't score a good blast before this winter is done.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Seems encouraging. Now we just need the ridge to slide further east. Ironic considering earlier this Winter the ridge/block setup too far to the east around 140-130 W.

 

--

6z GFS in 1 hour

 

One really interesting thing is EPS shows deep low pressure continuing to dig to the west of high pressure cell over the NC Pacific at the end of the run.  That could spell mega block upcoming.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One really interesting thing is EPS shows deep low pressure continuing to dig to the west of high pressure cell over the NC Pacific at the end of the run.  That could spell mega block upcoming.

Ya, it could. I'll stick with my January 22nd - 29th prediction.

 

--

12z GFS in 7 hours 19 minutes

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Maybe the Seahawks' firing of Bevell can energize the offense like we want the block to energize offshore. Celebratory regional event.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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