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January Weather In the PNW

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#3551
Brennan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:12 AM

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384 of 0z GCR token is nice. I bet we see a trend starting here.... MOON!


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#3552
DJ Droppin

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:18 AM

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I do think we are right on the cusp from seeing much colder Op runs and to some extent colder Ensembles also. I don't know if I expect it just yet, but I wouldn't be surprised. Source: Miss Cleo (Psychic Hotline)

 

--

6z GFS in 8 minutes



#3553
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:29 AM

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That end of the month, first of February...Watch it!


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3554
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:00 AM

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The model chaos is starting, as that frigid Putin airmass starts hacking the wx matrix.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#3555
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:09 AM

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Had just finished a post on what I thought was the new 06z GFS..then realized I was looking at the Euro. Lol.

Blech, I desperately need sleep right now, but man, this wind just won’t let me have it. Both me & the gf are wide awake listening to what sounds like a freight train. 😳
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#3556
WeatherArchive

Posted 13 January 2018 - 07:31 AM

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Day 10 nope, and sure looks different than previous runs.

500h_anom.na.png

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Of course it's different it's more realistic. If there is nothing (upstream?) then there is nothing to tap into. Models schmodels.  Just look up north to see if there is any available then your head won't get spun around.  The models are only as good as the human operators that put in the (expired) data.



#3557
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:17 AM

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Best GFS run yet for Thursday night-Saturday AM. Would be 2-3" of snow up here at face value...Very borderline though.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3558
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:34 AM

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Heavy drizzle! 44 degrees!!

#3559
Timmy

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:34 AM

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I’ve been taking a break from the forums for awhile. Just wanting to make sure we are on for a big MLK day snowstorm? Dewey?
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#3560
Deweydog

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:40 AM

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I’ve been taking a break from the forums for awhile. Just wanting to make sure we are on for a big MLK day snowstorm? Dewey?


#trendedeast
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3561
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:43 AM

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Like where the GFS is heading.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3562
Dome Buster

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:46 AM

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Should rename this the chicken little forum.

#3563
Timmy

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:48 AM

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#trendedeast

Geez Phil, you sure hyped that time period long enough.

#3564
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:52 AM

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Like where the GFS is heading.

 

Well I did.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3565
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:52 AM

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Like where the GFS is heading.

The garbage dump?

#3566
Deweydog

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:53 AM

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Geez Phil, you sure hyped that time period long enough.


This is why I'm shacked up with Phil in this undisclosed basement. I don't know why he was whining about the wind, you can't hear a thing down here.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3567
Jake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:54 AM

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Let's hope the 12Z is a big outlier.



#3568
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:59 AM

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GFS almost extends to February now...still no real eye candy. One month closer to boating season!
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#3569
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:15 AM

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Well I did.

 

 

Its irrelevant now.   We locked in the 00Z GFS run last night.   We have already won.   Game over.



#3570
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:16 AM

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12z decent. Very close to something good.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3571
Farmboy

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:31 AM

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Its irrelevant now. We locked in the 00Z GFS run last night. We have already won. Game over.

It's the will of the people.

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#3572
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:31 AM

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12z decent. Very close to something good.

 

Very close at 336 hours out which is really in the short term range now.     <_<

 

Are you talking about 384 hours?

 

gfs_T850a_namer_49.png



#3573
liquidsnow

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:32 AM

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I'm airing out my tents. Spring is coming!
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#3574
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:33 AM

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My grass is starting to grow.

#3575
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:38 AM

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Very close at 336 hours out which is really in the short term range now.     <_<

 

Are you talking about 384 hours?

 

gfs_T850a_namer_49.png

 

You knew what I meant.

 

Also maybe some snow later next week.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3576
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:42 AM

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You knew what I meant.

 

Also maybe some snow later next week.

 

Maybe some slop above 1,500 feet.    I am fairly certain it will not snow even at my house... let alone the rest of the lowlands.

 

I really don't know what you meant.    This run covers the entire second half of January.    It might be decent for early November but not for late January.  



#3577
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:44 AM

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Very close at 336 hours out which is really in the short term range now. <_<

Are you talking about 384 hours?

gfs_T850a_namer_49.png

Looks chilly northwest of Hawaii!

#3578
HighlandExperience

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:44 AM

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Looks chilly northwest of Hawaii!


Hawaii will get snow before we do

#3579
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:46 AM

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Ensemble isn’t bad.
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#3580
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:55 AM

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Ensemble isn’t bad.

Could you post for Seattle?

#3581
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:55 AM

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Ensemble isn’t bad.

 

The standard term we use every day is "not bad".



#3582
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:59 AM

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The standard term we use every day is "not bad".

I was trying to change it up.

#3583
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:01 AM

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Attached File  81C3648E-68C8-4D9B-819B-D9B65354517E.png   419.54KB   2 downloads
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#3584
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:03 AM

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81C3648E-68C8-4D9B-819B-D9B65354517E.png

Thanks! Not bad!

#3585
Deweydog

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:10 AM

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Thanks! Not bad!


Pretty good.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3586
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:19 AM

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Hawaii will get snow before we do

Hawaii gets snow all the time.   At least on Mauna Kea



#3587
Jake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:20 AM

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Pretty good.

In the old days we never got excited until the ensemble mean got down around -10C. Times have changed.

#3588
liquidsnow

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:21 AM

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Snow advisory for the Pacific Salmon. Could cause many head on collisions.
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#3589
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:22 AM

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http://komonews.com/...cs-snowiest-day

#3590
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:24 AM

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In the old days we never got excited until the ensemble mean got down around -10C. Times have changed.


People have always gotten excited about cooler patterns showing up after long winter dull periods.

#3591
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:24 AM

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Sun is peaking out!

#3592
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:27 AM

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In the old days we never got excited until the ensemble mean got down around -10C. Times have changed.

When was the last time that happened. Feb 2014?

#3593
Jake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:28 AM

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People have always gotten excited about cooler patterns showing up after long winter dull periods.

Yeah but a -4C mean for a couple days followed pretty much by climo for the rest of the run is a bit much.

#3594
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Yeah but a -4C mean for a couple days followed pretty much by climo for the rest of the run is a bit much.


Do you think he shouldn’t have posted it?

#3595
HighlandExperience

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:37 AM

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http://komonews.com/...cs-snowiest-day


That is amazing. Could you imagine 20 inches falling in a day!
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#3596
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:38 AM

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Yeah but a -4C mean for a couple days followed pretty much by climo for the rest of the run is a bit much.

Did someone say they were excited? Moss man asked me to post the map.
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#3597
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:42 AM

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That is amazing. Could you imagine 20 inches falling in a day!


Wish I could have experienced that 1969 Central and South Valley snowstorm that brought 36" to Eugene.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3598
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:46 AM

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My trip to Ace Hardware in North Bend earlier this morning was brightened by seeing them setting up their outdoor garden center.   

 

I thought about buying the entire rack.  :)

 

20180113_103832.jpg



#3599
Jake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:49 AM

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Do you think he shouldn’t have posted it?

Does that follow logically?



#3600
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Does that follow logically?


I guess that would depend on your answer. :D