January Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

I don't remember a winter so boring up to this point. Even 2002-03 had some AR events. This one has been a snoozer so far. Like others, I anticipate we will have 50 degree highs in June and summer won't start til July 5 as per usual.

As per usual? We have had scorching early summers lately. We hit 100+ the last two Junes, and June 2015 was one of the most anomalously hot months on record for our region.

[Phil]

Well we know we can write off the next 7-10 days...So that certainly narrows the window. I feel like we have some minor potential in the January 20-25 range still. Then maybe again the first 10-15 days of February...

Yeah, there are definitely leads/lags both ways (tropics influence extratropics, extratropics influence tropics), but they’re not always clear-cut and/or modeled properly. The system is full of inertia, etc. There’s almost a “memory” to some of these wavetrain tendencies over time..it’s so fascinating.

 

You might be correct, though. Interesting that most of these mixed QBO analogs have western trough/eastern ridge for February and flip to eastern trough/western ridge for March. However...the few analogs that do have eastern trough/western ridge for February flip to western trough/eastern ridge for March.

 

Looked more closely at these..all of them had active mid/late winter MJOs, and the reason for the differences in pattern timing were related to the location of the MJO and state of the stratospheric PV at the time (since the MJO is heavily influenced by the stratosphere, and vice-versa the stratosphere is heavily influenced by the MJO).

[WeatherArchive]

If I were Soros or even his son instead of destroying economies and destabilizing nations I'd use that money to build better radars in blind spots and more sensors.etc

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the latest EPS, it's actually slightly better than previous runs. Certainly no worse. Pattern change is still a go.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

 

Yeah I still don't know if that does anything more than some snow mixed in on the higher hills...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I were Soros or even his son instead of destroying economies and destabilizing nations I'd use that money to build better radars in blind spots and more sensors.etc

 

Yeah, if he wasn't evil personified. 

[Phil]

If I were Soros or even his son instead of destroying economies and destabilizing nations I'd use that money to build better radars in blind spots and more sensors.etc

Umm..okay?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it depends on how deep/slow this MJO wave is going forward. A deeper wave = a slower wave and a deeper -PNA through the rest of January, but it also means a deeper/slower wave when it reaches the WPAC and probably another western ridge/eastern trough in February as a result.

 

A shallower wave probably precludes an exciting event this month/less -PNA in the near term, but it also implies a weaker WPAC event in February and a faster orbit through the unfavorable domains..so maybe a return to the favorable Indo-Pacific domain my mid/late February.

 

I may be missing something, but I don't see really any potential in the next 15-20 days for the west. Aside from slightly cooler than normal conditions and maybe some decent mountain snows. 

[Phil]

I may be missing something, but I don't see really any potential in the next 15-20 days for the west. Aside from slightly cooler than normal conditions and maybe some decent mountain snows.

Well that’s beyond my pay grade. I’m just talking about the large scale pattern. I have to leave the mesoscale and microclimatic details to you guys. Hard to have a thorough understanding of the microclimatic “nuts and bolts” without actually living there.

[MossMan]

It never started so how can winter be over?

It did start and end! Started on 12/24 and ended 12/26!

[James Jones]

As per usual? We have had scorching early summers lately. We hit 100+ the last two Junes, and June 2015 was one of the most anomalously hot months on record for our region.

 

Yeah, we've had early starting summers for the past 5 years, the last time we really did have one start in July was 2012. With a decent Nina going right now we have a good chance of a wetter and cooler than average Feb-June period... perfect for setting up our September blowtorch!

[WeatherArchive]

We never learn. I am still clinging to hope for February.

https://youtu.be/SHhrZgojY1Q We Won't Get Fooled again!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well that’s beyond my pay grade. I’m just talking about the large scale pattern. I have to leave the mesoscale and microclimatic details to you guys. Hard to have a thorough understanding of the microclimatic “nuts and bolts” without actually living there.

 

Makes sense, but there is definitely not going to be arctic air anywhere near the PNW in the next two weeks. That takes us to the last week of January.

[Phil]

Makes sense, but there is definitely not going to be arctic air anywhere near the PNW in the next two weeks. That takes us to the last week of January.

Well, the MJO should still be favorably located by then, especially if it’s a deeper/slower wave, though it will be approaching the west-Pacific warm pool soon after, and once it gets there...well, that’s several weeks from now so let’s not talk about it.

[ShawniganLake]

EPS day 11-15

 

 

[BLI snowman]

EPS day 11-15

 

B46F63D6-CE63-4AA7-9AEE-7E917FE2460C.png

 

D1929CB9-7E12-47F5-8316-6FEC9FA694F0.png

 

 

Wet snow!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS day 11-15

 

B46F63D6-CE63-4AA7-9AEE-7E917FE2460C.png

 

D1929CB9-7E12-47F5-8316-6FEC9FA694F0.png

 

The problem is by the time we have a good pattern, there is no cold air to work with.

[MossMan]

The 18z will be a trend setter!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

The problem is by the time we have a good pattern, there is no cold air to work with.

Sad story, but true.

 

This has been the case for a very long time. We always have ther perfect setup come March/April. I have been saying this for years with sarcasm but some honesty in my early fall posts on here but in the end it is a reality and super repeatable year after year. We can about write this winter off unless you're into slop and melting/marginal snow events.  This is and WILL not be a modified arctic pattern in time to mean anything this year. This is becoming more and more clear and something we just have to accept as what is normal here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 18z will be a trend setter!!

Yep... trend toward marginal and 10+ days away.  Count on it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z will be a trend setter!!

Yeah one way or another!

[MossMan]

A real shame that we couldn’t tap into all the cold air just to our north right now...a real shame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A real shame that we couldn’t tap into all the cold air just to our north right now...a real shame.

 

It is. We will have a pattern for delivery about as soon as all that cold air is gone.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah I still don't know if that does anything more than some snow mixed in on the higher hills...

 

The odds of anything better than that before day 10 are low.

 

Still, it's better than the current pattern and moving in the right direction. 1996.....

[Front Ranger]

I may be missing something, but I don't see really any potential in the next 15-20 days for the west. Aside from slightly cooler than normal conditions and maybe some decent mountain snows. 

 

I think there's definitely potential days 10-20. Just because you're not seeing GFS runs spit out Arctic outbreaks in fantasy land (which doesn't even go to day 20) doesn't mean there's not potential. 

 

Day 20 puts us at Jan 30, a full week before Feb 2014's glory.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[crf450ish]

Once we do get slammed good are we all gonna look back and feel silly for whining? No? Ok.....

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I think there's definitely potential days 10-20. Just because you're not seeing GFS runs spit out Arctic outbreaks in fantasy land (which doesn't even go to day 20) doesn't mean there's not potential.

 

Day 20 puts us at Jan 30, a full week before Feb 2014's glory.

I would love a February 2014 repeat but that event in terms of getting the Arctic air was well advertised ahead of time. I remember the ECMWF weeklies showing it like 3 weeks ahead of time.

[Deweydog]

I think there's definitely potential days 10-20. Just because you're not seeing GFS runs spit out Arctic outbreaks in fantasy land (which doesn't even go to day 20) doesn't mean there's not potential.

 

Day 20 puts us at Jan 30, a full week before Feb 2014's glory.

Flatiron's calling for a 2-14 redux with lower sun angles!!!

[Phil]

Seasonal SSTA loop. Note the persistent warmth in the subtropical west-Pacific, between 10N - 30N.

 

That’s been a b*tch all winter. At least so far.

 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.html

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I would love a February 2014 repeat but that event in terms of getting the Arctic air was well advertised ahead of time. I remember the ECMWF weeklies showing it like 3 weeks ahead of time.

Here is what the ECMWF weeklies showed in 2014 preceding the Arctic blast in February.

 

[Phil]

Seasonal SSTA loop. Note the persistent warmth in the subtropical west-Pacific, between 10N - 30N.

 

That’s been a b*tch all winter. At least so far.

 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.html

You want the warm waters biased SW of the Indonesian islands, towards the west coast of Australia and across the east-Indian Ocean. Not the subtropical west-Pacific.

 

The N/NE-biased warm pool/residual +SIOD shifts the west-Pacific ITCZ/Hadley Cell northward, which tightens the east-Asian jet, and favors a +PNA in the long run. The oncoming -QBO will try to change this, but it’s still questionable whether it downwells from aloft in time to actually matter.

[Jesse]

You want the warm waters biased SW of the Indonesian islands, towards the west coast of Australia and across the east-Indian Ocean. Not the subtropical west-Pacific.

 

The N/NE-biased warm pool/residual +SIOD shifts the west-Pacific ITCZ/Hadley Cell northward, which tightens the east-Asian jet, and favors a +PNA in the long run. The oncoming -QBO will try to change this, but it’s still questionable whether it downwells from aloft in time to actually matter.

What exactly is a -QBO?

[Phil]

Here is what the ECMWF weeklies showed in 2014 preceding the Arctic blast in February.

 

Yeah, that was a true, long-period anticyclonic retrogression. We tried that in late December, but the steroidal west-Pacific/QBO in a mid-life crisis put the kibosh on it before the process could finish.

[Front Ranger]

Flatiron's calling for a 2-14 redux with lower sun angles!!!

Let's start with March 2012 redux with MUCH lower sun angles.

[Phil]

What exactly is a -QBO?

The QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) is a 20-25 month cycle in the zonal winds/temperatures above the equatorial tropopause (technically defined by said variations over the equatorial Pacific). These variations in zonal winds start at the stratopause and downwell towards the tropopause, where they alter the thermodynamics that govern the temperature and height of the tropopause, before dissipating. So obviously, the QBO affects the behavior of tropical convection around the globe, year-round, through its modulation(s) of the spatial dynamics and overall integral of static stability in the deep tropics.

 

A negative (easterly) phase of the QBO denotes easterly zonal winds above the equatorial tropopause, as well as a colder/raised tropopause with deeper convection in the ITCZ, constrained modestly closer to the equator, which is found to modestly contract and intensify the Pacific Hadley Cell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I cried like a baby because I got warm nosed about 24 hours before SLE mixed out in February 2014. Looking back, I have a much greater appreciation for that event in hindsight. I pulled off a 23/13 with 5" of snow on the 6th...That was only my 3rd winter up here...I don't think I realized how abnormal that was...

[High Desert Mat!]

The QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) is a 20-25 month cycle in the zonal winds/temperatures above the equatorial tropopause (technically defined by said variations over the equatorial Pacific). These variations in zonal winds start at the stratopause and downwell towards the tropopause, where they alter the thermodynamics that govern the temperature and height of the tropopause, before dissipating. So obviously, the QBO affects the behavior of tropical convection around the globe, year-round, through its modulation(s) of the spatial dynamics and overall integral of static stability in the deep tropics.

 

A negative (easterly) phase of the QBO denotes easterly zonal winds above the equatorial tropopause, as well as a colder/raised tropopause with deeper convection in the ITCZ, constrained modestly closer to the equator, which is found to modestly contract and intensify the Pacific Hadley Cell.

English dude, English.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a TON of mountain snow starting the middle of next week.

[High Desert Mat!]

I cried like a baby because I got warm nosed about 24 hours before SLE mixed out in February 2014. Looking back, I have a much greater appreciation for that event in hindsight. I pulled off a 23/13 with 5" of snow on the 6th...That was only my 3rd winter up here...I don't think I realized how abnormal that was...

That winter was one for memories here. Dec of '13 tied our all time record low of -27 and it was brutal. Then Feb of '14 came in and it snowed off and on for five days and I recorded 33" in my backyard which then it turned very cold and also tied the all time record low once again. Crazy winter.

 

My buddy was on his way back from Chicago during the big snowstorm here and couldn't make it in to PDX due to zr and snow there. Great memories.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately I don't see much snow below 2000' based on what is currently being modeled. However, the airmass is cold enough there could locally be snow in convergence zone areas, or if we get an anafront.