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January Weather In the PNW

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#3601
Jake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Did someone say they were excited? Moss man asked me to post the map.

 

No.  Perhaps excited was the wrong word.  No reflection on you at all.  The 12Z ensemble is pretty close to the past several days of runs in that it shows some cooling but no indication of anything promising for the lowlands.  Didn't mean to cause any turmoil.


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#3602
Jake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:51 AM

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I guess that would depend on your answer. :D

 

My heads gonna burst!!!  :wacko: 


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#3603
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:54 AM

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The drizzle has finally stopped! Trends and notches!
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#3604
Deweydog

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:59 AM

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Nice day.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3605
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:00 AM

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Lake Goodwin was frozen over one year ago today.

Attached Files


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#3606
Jake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:00 AM

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When was the last time that happened. Feb 2014?

Didn't we get close last January?  



#3607
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:09 AM

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The month is trending cooler. That much is clear.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3608
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:10 AM

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The drizzle has finally stopped! Trends and notches!

 

Went from drizzly, dark, and foggy here at 9:30 to pretty much sunny now and it feels really warm out there.   I was just using the hose to wash down the driveway with bare feet.  :)



#3609
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:12 AM

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A friend currently vacationing in Hawaii got this as her wake up call...

Glad it was a false alarm.

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#3610
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:12 AM

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Added bonus... the 12Z ECMWF keeps Monday totally dry now with highs in the low 60s here and upper 50s to low 60s across most of the region.    



#3611
Guest_El nina_*

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:13 AM

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Up to 51 already. Looks like Jesse's prediction several days ago will be correct that places push 60 today.

#3612
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:15 AM

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My trip to Ace Hardware in North Bend earlier this morning was brightened by seeing them setting up their outdoor garden center.

I thought about buying the entire rack. :)

20180113_103832.jpg


:rolleyes:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3613
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:15 AM

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Nothing too exciting on the rest of the 12Z ECMWF run... temps are coolest one week from today in the low to mid 40s with rain and then upper 40s again by the end of the run.  



#3614
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:16 AM

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:rolleyes:


When you respond the beast just gets stronger. You just lost the game.
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#3615
BLI snowman

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:20 AM

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The month is trending cooler. That much is clear.

 

Keep the dream alive.



#3616
BLI snowman

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:23 AM

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Weenie flavored journalism!

 

http://www.oregonliv...t2box_targeted_


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#3617
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:30 AM

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The month is trending cooler. That much is clear.

Looks like a dead ringer for 1996.

#3618
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:37 AM

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Didn't we get close last January?

We probably got close. I could be wrong, but I don’t remember 850s dropping to -10 here. I thought we bottomed out around -8 or -9.

#3619
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:40 AM

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Up to 54 at SEA already as the sun is coming out more now.   

 

53 here and partly sunny.    No wind and it feels sort of humid.



#3620
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:42 AM

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Looks like a dead ringer for 1996.


The progression has felt somewhat similar.

#3621
weatherfan2012

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:47 AM

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Had just finished a post on what I thought was the new 06z GFS..then realized I was looking at the Euro. Lol.
Blech, I desperately need sleep right now, but man, this wind just won’t let me have it. Both me & the gf are wide awake listening to what sounds like a freight train.

it's no wonder Dave tolleris has been so off this winter on snow events the Ecmwf has been next to awful which is his go to model of choice DT is lol any way.it use to be a good model but lately it has been really performing badly I just wonder if the last update or so they did to it effected it's performise in any way?

#3622
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:49 AM

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Weenie flavored journalism!

http://www.oregonliv...t2box_targeted_


Seems like a mostly reasonable take on things to me. Aside from the five snow events part.

#3623
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:49 AM

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The progression has felt somewhat similar.

I don’t remember 1996. But I do know we were in the mid 30s with deep snow after mid month. Not happening this year.

#3624
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:51 AM

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I don’t remember 1996. But I do know we were in the mid 30s with deep snow after mid month. Not happening this year.


Oops. I must have fallen for some sarcasm bait.

I was thinking in terms of a mild start and a chilly finish. But things definitely got active sooner in ‘96.
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#3625
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:56 AM

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The month is trending cooler. That much is clear.


Face it, you’re going down with the ship. ;)

VwkZdkq.png
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3626
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:01 PM

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Yeah in 1996 there was cold air in western Canada that got dropped down.  There is not a source of cold air to bring down as all of the coldest air is on the other side of the planet in Russia, it's not going to happen this winter.  Time to start thinking about the draft and finding a better kicker.

 

Next winter will be a wild card too. I predict weak +ENSO with one good regional event.


Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3627
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:19 PM

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Yeah in 1996 there was cold air in western Canada that got dropped down. There is not a source of cold air to bring down as all of the coldest air is on the other side of the planet in Russia, it's not going to happen this winter. Time to start thinking about the draft and finding a better kicker.

Next winter will be a wild card too. I predict weak +ENSO with one good regional event.

But it’s an 08-9 winter. Those are always good.

When aren’t our winters a wild card?

#3628
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:23 PM

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Beautiful spring day! Went down and got some river rock for a yard project, helped a goat that was stuck in a fence. Beautiful sunshine and 50 up here. Very warm month.


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3629
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:30 PM

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Beautiful spring day! Went down and got some river rock for a yard project, helped a goat that was stuck in a fence. Beautiful sunshine and 50 up here. Very warm month.


It is beautiful... up to 55 here and 56 at SEA. Might end up with 3 consecutive days with a high of 60 or warmer here. Awesome for mid January and a holiday weekend too. :)

#3630
Dome Buster

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:33 PM

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Unreal that Eugene had a 36" snowstorm. What setup made that happen? Gorge influenced cold northerlies with a Pineapple Express?

#3631
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:39 PM

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Almost 50 at Snoqualmie Pass now... my son said it feels like April skiing up there.

 

58 at SEA.



#3632
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:39 PM

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Unreal that Eugene had a 36" snowstorm. What setup made that happen? Gorge influenced cold northerlies with a Pineapple Express?

 

I believe they had 47" that month. What was amazing too is that places like Florence on the coast had 2-3' of snow with 20"+ totals all the way south to Bandon on the coast. But yes, basically extreme jet suppression with cold air to the north. Silver Falls at 1350' had about 100" of snow that month with a 51" depth on the 31st. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3633
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:40 PM

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Just looking back at 1996 in the BC interior, and indeed it turned very cold after the 15th. A lot of -10F to -20F departures the second half of January.

#3634
DJ Droppin

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:44 PM

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Seems like a mostly reasonable take on things to me. Aside from the five snow events part.

Anything is possible. Literally anything, except for 4 snow events in Portland. Then again, ya never know the end of January and into February could turn cold/snowy. It would be foolish to suggest that it isn't a possibility. It would be foolish however to expect it.

 

 

Teleconnection Indices forecast
More improvements noted with a tanking PNA and the EPO turns slightly negative as well.

4indices.png

 

--

18z GFS in 42 minutes



#3635
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:53 PM

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The D15 12z EPS is beginning to show the +WPO response to the Siberian blast, which will re-activate the NPAC jet and surf zone as we close out the month of January.

KyA3HvH.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3636
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:55 PM

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The D15 12z EPS is beginning to show the +WPO response to the Siberian blast, which will re-activate the NPAC jet and surf zone as we close out the month of January.

KyA3HvH.png


The climatological response to this is +PNA/-EPO with the MJO entering the WPAC/WHEM next month..but if we pull off a SSW or something else off-domain..who knows.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3637
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:05 PM

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The EPS was noticeably colder in western Canada than the 0z run in the day 8-13 range.

Attached File  58A1E730-6EB7-430D-BF84-AD8B52349A5C.png   190.77KB   0 downloadsAttached File  BA7386CD-7597-4C72-9EC0-D47C9D461781.png   215.92KB   0 downloads
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#3638
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Brian Brettschneider (aka the map king) just added these to his website.

This fascinates me. I understand why the Arctic would lag the middle latitudes in the seasonal cycle, but why the west leads the east in the seasonal cycle makes less sense to me.

LgQaBut.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3639
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:10 PM

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The only reason I can think of is that western North America is more easily influenced by the seasonal cycle of the Pacific SSTs/ITCZ, and the Rockies protect eastern North America from that influence somewhat, such that temperatures east of the Rockies are more synchronized with those in the Arctic compared to those west of the Rockies.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3640
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:10 PM

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The climatological response to this is +PNA/-EPO with the MJO entering the WPAC/WHEM next month..but if we pull off a SSW or something else off-domain..who knows.


Luckily, that Siberian blast is going to cause model chaos once it interacts with the pacific. +PNA cancelled.
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#3641
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:13 PM

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The only reason I can think of is that western North America is more easily influenced by the seasonal cycle of the Pacific SSTs/ITCZ, and the Rockies protect eastern North America from that influence somewhat, such that temperatures east of the Rockies are more synchronized with those in the Arctic compared to those west of the Rockies.


This would also explain why glacial inception (the start of Ice Ages) always begins in NE-Canada, and why much of Alaska and far NW-Canada remains glacier-free during these phases.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3642
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:16 PM

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Brian Brettschneider (aka the map king) just added these to his website.

This fascinates me. I understand why the Arctic would lag the middle latitudes in the seasonal cycle, but why the west leads the east in the seasonal cycle makes less sense to me.

LgQaBut.jpg


What’s interesting, though, is that things flip around afterwards, as western North-American summers begin very late compared to the rest of the country, until you get into central Alaska/NW Canada, where the inverse is true.

I assume this has something to due to the seasonality of the Pacific High.

JIUOk26.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3643
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:25 PM

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Fun at the river...

 

26685255_2011680322439155_45329111370900


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3644
BLI snowman

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:30 PM

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Blasting the AC today. Could be an uncomfortable sleeping night.

#3645
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:39 PM

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Based on this map, the west certainly looks like a more difficult and complex place to forecast for, with all the topography and microclimates everywhere. 😬

xHACPys.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3646
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:42 PM

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Fun at the river...

26685255_2011680322439155_45329111370900


Wonderful picture, man.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3647
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:51 PM

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Okay, so..looks like seven of the 12z EPS members have a large Arctic blast developing around d13-15, but the rest are average to mild with nothing in sight.

No middle ground, apparently..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3648
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:57 PM

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So, the stratospheric polar vortex (aka: the Alcatraz for Arctic air) takes a significant body blow next week.

It tries to recover, but what happens afterwards could actually be very important..

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3649
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:03 PM

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Wonderful picture, man.

 

:)


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3650
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:03 PM

luvssnow_seattle

    Epic is always possible... 1% of the time!

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