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January Weather In the PNW

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#3651
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:10 PM

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Up to 54 at SEA already as the sun is coming out more now.   

 

53 here and partly sunny.    No wind and it feels sort of humid.

 

Looks like Hope is still sitting around freezing. Meanwhile it's a foggy 44F here.

 

726.jpg



#3652
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:11 PM

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Up to a glorious 61 today


That was my dewpoint as of 16hrs ago. 🌴💐☀️😥

I feel like I’m on another planet now. Down 50*F, lol.
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#3653
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:16 PM

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This would also explain why glacial inception (the start of Ice Ages) always begins in NE-Canada, and why much of Alaska and far NW-Canada remains glacier-free during these phases.


From what I always knew the Cordilleran Ice Sheet was massive and extended all the way to present day Olympia. It is what carved out the Puget Sound trough, as well as the various inlets and passages north of there into SE Alaska.

#3654
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:17 PM

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From what I always knew the Corderillan Ice Sheet was massive and extended all the way to present day Olympia. It is what carved out the Puget Sound trough, as well as the various inlets and passages north of there into SE Alaska.


Are you referring to glacial inception or glacial maximum?

Interesting information, btw. I didn’t know that.
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#3655
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:19 PM

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Are you referring to glacial inception or glacial maximum?


Maximum I suppose. I guess that could explain the difference.

#3656
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:29 PM

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Maximum I suppose. I guess that could explain the difference.


That’s fascinating re: glaciers gouging out the Puget Sound trough. The power these ice sheets had is simply amazing to me..how they permanently re-shaped geology in ways that define the landscape even today, and how “quickly”, from a geologic perspective, they were able to do it.

The Great Lakes. The Hudson Bay. Long Island. All thanks to frozen water and cold temperatures.

The Chesapeake Bay was also formed through seasonal meltwater floods when the rapid warming (4-5C in a few centuries) began following the LGM around 18kyrs ago. It must have been insane during those summers, to have a 20 mile wide, raging torrent of meltwater pouring off the ice sheet from June-August, then having it shut off and turn subarctic again from October - April. Not to mention sea levels rising up to 6”/yr.
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#3657
snow_wizard

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:50 PM

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18z is pretty darn good.  Thicknesses down to 525 over SEA at day 10.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#3658
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:54 PM

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It’s actually one of the greatest, yet least spoken-of paradoxes in climate science today.

Given the size of the Great Ice Sheets, even using the most conservative estimates, the amount of additional energy required to melt even 70% of that ice by the early Holocene (less than 5000yrs following the closing stages of the LGM) is so large it almost defies the laws of thermodynamics as we know them, given how much latent heat is absorbed during ice melt. Insolation, seasonality, and GHGes can explain maybe 10% of it.

The only way to “solve” the problem is via a massive increase in heat fluxes from the cool, ice-age tropics. So much heat flux, in fact, that the corresponding increase in moisture transport/snowfall deposition would have to be overwhelmed by melting.

However, [i]that[i] much warm advection would steal so much from the tropical heat budget, that the climate system would actually be losing a significant amount of energy while melting the ice, even after factoring in positive feedbacks like albedo loss and cooling high latitude oceans.

But there are no alternative explanations than I can think of without resorting to hand-waving. There must have been a massive shift in the tropical/global circulation, perhaps a highly nonlinear response to changing orbital forcings, in order to terminate the ice age like that.
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#3659
Deweydog

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:00 PM

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Feels weird outside.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3660
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:01 PM

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Oops. I must have fallen for some sarcasm bait.

I was thinking in terms of a mild start and a chilly finish. But things definitely got active sooner in ‘96.

 

Not that much sooner. The 15th instead of 18th? 

 

Either way, anyone expecting any winter to follow another exactly will be disappointed 100% of the time. There has definitely been similarities to 1995-96 this winter, along with 1989-90, and that looks to continue.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3661
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:01 PM

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Face it, you’re going down with the ship. ;)

VwkZdkq.png

 

You're reading too much into my posts.

 

The month is trending cooler for the West. Take it at face value, it's fact.

 

Attached File  ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png   112.53KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3662
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:04 PM

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And if you want to talk seasonal forecasts, Phil, we both went cold for January. So any ship I'm going down with has you aboard as well.  :)


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3663
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:05 PM

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Just looking back at 1996 in the BC interior, and indeed it turned very cold after the 15th. A lot of -10F to -20F departures the second half of January.

 

Looks like it will turn cold up there around the 20th this month.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3664
Prairiedog

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:07 PM

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Bounced over to Bend Or for a wedding.  62f and low humidity today.  Feels like what a nice April day should be like.  Just feels really wrong for Jan. 13th.  I do like the low humidity and sun though.  But it's still wrong. 


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#3665
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:10 PM

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You're reading too much into my posts.

The month is trending cooler for the West. Take it at face value, it's fact.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png


The models aren’t trending cooler, though, and this MJO wave slowly approaching the WPAC/warm pool is a ticking time bomb.
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#3666
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:11 PM

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Up to a glorious 61 today

 

Awesome day... so warm.      

 

26850156_1562614910473378_37289961388310


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#3667
Jesse

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:14 PM

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The models aren’t trending cooler, though, and this MJO wave slowly approaching the WPAC/warm pool is a ticking time bomb.


How do you even have the heart to say this when we’re in the midst of such an epic torch? :lol:

Really hoping you are dead wrong again.
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#3668
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:14 PM

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Da*mit. Okay, so even though it’s probably wrong, the new 18z GFS is very 2001-esque with the poleward propagation of +AAM after d9. That would be a buzzkill.
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#3669
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:15 PM

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18z is close to decent next weekend and early the following week.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3670
DJ Droppin

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:15 PM

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1f31e.png
What a day! I hope everyone is enjoying this amazing Springuary day. I don't know if it's going to snow in 10 days nor 20, but let's just enjoy this wonderful sunshine, dry weather, and calm winds while we can. What a great day for a BBQ, hiking, or other outdoor activities. LIKE.png

 

--

00z GFS in 4 hours 11 minutes



#3671
MossMan

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:16 PM

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Stopped by the lake house, nice day! Even someone fishing!

Attached Files


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#3672
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:17 PM

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I’m going to be ripped to shreds for this one, but please beware the long range models right now. It’s actually more of a classic Siberian High descent —> +PNA style jet extension that’s being mishandled in the extended range.

The Siberian/NW-Pacific vortex (+WPO) returns following the descending high and could (temporarily) return the pattern to something resembling the ongoing one towards the end of January.

 

 

All LR guidance continues to point to -PNA developing second half of the month.

 

attachicon.gifgfs-ens_z500a_namer_55.png

 

 

I’m not seeing it. I bet it verifies +PNA or neutral, unless the NAO really tanks.

 

 

Anything is possible. Literally anything, except for 4 snow events in Portland. Then again, ya never know the end of January and into February could turn cold/snowy. It would be foolish to suggest that it isn't a possibility. It would be foolish however to expect it.

 

 

Teleconnection Indices forecast
More improvements noted with a tanking PNA and the EPO turns slightly negative as well.

4indices.png

 

--

18z GFS in 42 minutes

 

Phil, this is the exchange I was referring to last night. You were predicting that the LR guidance was wrong, there would be no -PNA the second half of this month.

 

It now appears very likely that the PNA will tank in about 6 days.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3673
Timmy

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:17 PM

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Da*mit. Okay, so even though it’s probably wrong, the new 18z GFS is very 2001-esque with the poleward propagation of +AAM after d9. That would be a buzzkill.

stole the words right out of my mouth.
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#3674
Timmy

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:19 PM

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Feels weird outside.

it’s felt weird all year to me.

#3675
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:21 PM

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The models aren’t trending cooler, though, and this MJO wave slowly approaching the WPAC/warm pool is a ticking time bomb.

 

I said the month is trending cooler. All guidance is now indicating it will be turning cooler for much of the West in about 6-7 days.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3676
Dome Buster

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:23 PM

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I believe they had 47" that month. What was amazing too is that places like Florence on the coast had 2-3' of snow with 20"+ totals all the way south to Bandon on the coast. But yes, basically extreme jet suppression with cold air to the north. Silver Falls at 1350' had about 100" of snow that month with a 51" depth on the 31st.


Good lord. I would be able to milk my own cereal if that happened today. Surely that will happen again. Hopefully in my lifetime.

#3677
Deweydog

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:24 PM

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it’s felt weird all year to me.


Penicillin will clear that right up.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3678
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:27 PM

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How do you even have the heart to say this when we’re in the midst of such an epic torch? :lol:

Really hoping you are dead wrong again.


To be 100% honest about it, I’m actually looking for every excuse possible to be optimistic, in what looks like a losing battle (or maybe a stalemate).

It’s why I’ve been all over the f**king place lately. Siberian Highs causing model fails, trade bursts over warm pools, SSW events..they’re all long-shot *possibilities* that could theoretically change things, but I feel like the inevitable is staring me in the face, at this point, and after the stretch of blowtorch years from 2014-2016, I really do want to see some climatic payback out there.
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#3679
Deweydog

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:31 PM

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To be 100% honest about it, I’m actually looking for every excuse possible to be optimistic, in what looks like a losing battle.

It’s why I’ve been all over the f**king place lately. Siberian Highs causing model fails, trade bursts over warm pools, SSW events..they’re all long-shot *possibilities* that could theoretically change things, but the inevitable is kind of staring me in the face, at this point, and after the stretch of blowtorch years from 2014-2016, I really do want to see some climatic payback out there.


This is payback. Payback for last winter. One year ago today this place was other worldly. Today it is too!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3680
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:32 PM

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Phil, this is the exchange I was referring to last night. You were predicting that the LR guidance was wrong, there would be no -PNA the second half of this month.

It now appears very likely that the PNA will tank in about 6 days.


Read the third quote, man.
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#3681
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:33 PM

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18z ensemble mean is the best yet with placement/strength of the NE Pacific ridge in the long range.

 

Attached File  gfs-ens_z500a_namer_48.png   151.38KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3682
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:36 PM

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Read the third quote, man.

 

Yes, you said you weren't expecting -PNA to verify, unless the NAO "really tanked". There's no indication it will really tank, just drop to near neutral.

 

Plus a day or two later you reiterated that you thought any resulting -PNA from the "jet extension" would be modest at best and very brief. You doubled down on +PNA.

 

I don't make stuff up.  :)


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3683
FroYoBro

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:42 PM

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Definitely a weird spring feel out there today. It was way too nice. 



#3684
Geos

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:45 PM

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Super nice afternoon. Going to be enjoying tomorrow outside. Possibly fishing. 53 right now.

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#3685
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:45 PM

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Record high of at least 58 today at SEA. 


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3686
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:45 PM

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Yes, you said you weren't expecting -PNA to verify, unless the NAO "really tanked". There's no indication it will really tank, just drop to near neutral.

Plus a day or two later you reiterated that you thought any resulting -PNA from the "jet extension" would be modest at best and very brief. You doubled down on +PNA.

I don't make stuff up. :)


As usual, you’re just wrong. The 12z EPS drops the NAO lower than the PNA.

eRqRmCv.png

P4RxJu6.png
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#3687
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:47 PM

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Flatiron could easily set the world record for most factually incorrect posts on a weather forum.

It’s incredible.
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#3688
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:48 PM

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As usual, you’re just wrong. The 12z EPS drops the NAO lower than the PNA.

 

Look at the chart DJ posted above. 

 

Either way, you doubled down on the LR guidance being wrong, and +PNA being the likely outcome. It appears that will turn out to be incorrect.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3689
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:49 PM

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Flatiron could easily set the world record for most factually incorrect posts on a weather forum.

It’s incredible.

 

After I just backed up what I said last night with evidence (factual), this post doesn't make much sense.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3690
Kayla

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:52 PM

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Awesome day... so warm.      

 

What's all that green stuff??  :P


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#3691
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:53 PM

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Look at the chart DJ posted above.


That’s a single 18z GFS run. Please stop.

Either way, you doubled down on the LR guidance being wrong, and +PNA being the likely outcome. It appears that will turn out to be wrong.


Stop lying. I said, verbatim, that if the NAO tanks, then I could see a negative PNA. This is exactly what is happening, contrary to your flamboyant hand waving.

No doubling down necessary.
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#3692
TT-SEA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:54 PM

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What's all that green stuff?? :P


Grass is all dead and dormant... its an illusion. There are no signs of spring here. ;)

#3693
Kayla

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:56 PM

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Grass is all dead and dormant... its an illusion. There are no signs of spring here. ;)

 

Looks like summer never left!


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#3694
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:58 PM

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After I just backed up what I said last night with evidence (factual), this post makes no sense.


Actually, you merely disproved your own claims about what I said, and vindicated mine.

As usual, you’re wrong, and I’m right. :)
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#3695
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:59 PM

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Actually, you merely disproved your own claims about what I said, and vindicated mine.

As usual, you’re wrong, and I’m right.


[Insert summer forecast talking point here]
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#3696
Kayla

Posted 13 January 2018 - 03:59 PM

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That’s a single 18z GFS run. Please stop.


Stop lying. I said, verbatim, that if the NAO tanks, then I could see a negative PNA. This is exactly what is happening, contrary to your flamboyant hand waving.

No doubling down necessary.

 

To be fair, the ECMWF and the GFS have consistently been showing a -PNA by the 19th for a while now. I can also recall you clearly saying the models were incorrectly showing a -PNA for the second half of the month. As of right now, that doesn't look to be the case.


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#3697
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:01 PM

Phil

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To be fair, the ECMWF and the GFS have been consistently been showing a -PNA by the 19th for a while now. I can also recall you clearly saying the models were incorrectly showing a -PNA for the second half of the month. As of right now, that doesn't look to be the case.


Holy mother of god. Nobody reads my posts thoroughly.

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#3698
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:03 PM

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Notice how the PNA has consistently been verifying higher than guidance has forecasted since Thanksgiving. It’s been a theme even within seven days (let alone 14+ days out).

pna.sprd2.gif

Could be that the jet extension will register as a -PNA for something like 5 days, before upstream AAM removal starts slowing down and forcing re-enters into warm pool territory.

 

 

FWIW, I’m not very interested in the upcoming jet extension, as far as western cold is concerned.

When the jet peaks/retracts, I guess a modest -PNA response is possible, but I’m not sure how long it lasts before the NW-Pacific trough/AK-BC ridge/Hudson Bay Vortex pattern returns.

I’m more interested in what could happen in February/March and when the QBO flips @ 50mb, and perhaps if a SSW could accelerate this process.

 

Again Phil, I don't make stuff up. You were downplaying any -PNA potential for this month left and right. It is what it is.


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#3699
Phil

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:05 PM

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You know what, I’m fed up with my words being twisted around and/or taken out of context, all because a certain someone needs to cover his a** after a bad forecast.

I know the majority of readers here can see it, too. It’s very transparent.
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#3700
Front Ranger

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:10 PM

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To be fair, the ECMWF and the GFS have been consistently been showing a -PNA by the 19th for a while now. I can also recall you clearly saying the models were incorrectly showing a -PNA for the second half of the month. As of right now, that doesn't look to be the case.

 

I don't care so much that Phil says so many things, so much that he can almost always point back to something he said and claim he was right. 

 

It's more annoying that he often refuses to man up to things he said that don't end up so favorably. This was the case last summer with refusing to admit to what he had clearly harped on all spring (a cool/wet summer), it was the case with the silly Trump crowd report, and now he's doing it again with his call that we'd probably have to wait until February for a real -PNA regime.

 

I will give him credit for the early January bust - he manned up to that one.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.