January Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

I never believe anything until the ECMWF is on board... good or bad.  

 

Fortunately, the GFS is not coming out of left field with this. The Euro and CMC have been showing a pretty similar progression through day 10. Model agreement on the overall pattern isn't bad at this point.

[Front Ranger]

It snows. It snows a lot.

 

 

Making America White Again.

[Kayla]

Like I said, it would be nice if the coldest air would be on our side of the planet so the Columbia Basin were just a notch colder, then those lows would build the cold air dam enough that the southern end of it can get as far south as Corvallis.  Sadly, it's just not going to be cold enough over there.

 

It's payback for our good winter last year.

 

On this run, the coldest air is on our side of the planet...

 

[Phil]

Fortunately, the GFS is not coming out of left field with this. The Euro and CMC have been showing a pretty similar progression through day 10. Model agreement on the overall pattern isn't bad at this point.

Eh..there hasn’t been much ensemble support for a solution like this one. From either the EPS or GEFS.

 

Pending the 00z GEFS/EPS, of course.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Remember kids the Ecmwf is ALWAYS right.

[Kayla]

Eh..there hasn’t been much ensemble support for a solution like this one. From either the EPS or GEFS.

 

Pending the 00z GEFS/EPS, of course.

 

Through hour 144 you do see similar progression on all models. Things begin to spread from there though, not surprising of course.

[Phil]

On this run, the coldest air is on our side of the planet...

 

Well..those are anomalies. These are the actual 850mb temperatures:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On this run, the coldest air is on our side of the planet...

 

 

Look TigerWoodsLibido, the anomalies are actually more significant over Oregon.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice 00z GFS Op. We are not quite there yet for an arctic blast, but big improvements SO FAR on the 00z GFS/GEM Op runs at the least. I notice this most with the 500mb pattern west of 150 W with better ridge organization, amplification, and the Asian jet is held back west of the date line. Let's see how the Ensembles look and the important ECMWF of course.

 

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00z ECMWF in 30 minutes

[Front Ranger]

Eh..there hasn’t been much ensemble support for a solution like this one. From either the EPS or GEFS.

 

Pending the 00z GEFS/EPS, of course.

 

I don't put much stock at all in the clown range GFS. I'm just talking about model agreement through the somewhat believable 10 day range. 

 

The Euro only goes to day 10, so obviously it will be through day 10 that we're comparing it to the GFS.

 

Beyond that, as I mentioned the 18z ensembles were definitely improved in the LR. Hopefully 0z follows suit.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Like I said, it would be nice if the coldest air would be on our side of the planet so the Columbia Basin were just a notch colder, then those lows would build the cold air dam enough that the southern end of it can get as far south as Corvallis.  Sadly, it's just not going to be cold enough over there.

 

It's payback for our good winter last year.

 

It's just a start. Please think positively. We need to believe. 

[Kayla]

Well..those are anomalies. These are the actual 850mb temperatures:

 

Point still stands! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Like I said, it would be nice if the coldest air would be on our side of the planet so the Columbia Basin were just a notch colder, then those lows would build the cold air dam enough that the southern end of it can get as far south as Corvallis.  Sadly, it's just not going to be cold enough over there.

 

It's payback for our good winter last year.

The air on the "other side" is only about 5-10 degrees colder than the air in Northern BC, so that is not the problem.  The problem is that the air in Northern BC, which is plenty cold, with some temps at -30, just doesn't get that far south.  If those temps in BC were -100 it wouldn't matter if it doesn't get far enough south.  

[Phil]

Actual 850mb temps or streamflow are probably the easiest maps to understand, and the least deceptive.

 

All three of these are from 240hrs, but they can can be deceptive in their own ways.

 

 

 

[HighlandExperience]

Hey Phil just for fun post the wxbell snowfall map just for Washington and Oregon

[Front Ranger]

0z ensemble mean isn't as good as 18z. 

[Phil]

[Phil]

Hey Phil just for fun post the wxbell snowfall map just for Washington and Oregon

The resolution leaves something to be desired..guess it’s an epic run for Tim/Andrew/etc. Not sure about the super lowland folks but that’s not my area of expertise.

 

[Kayla]

...

 

I'm actually pleasantly surprised to see -42F in western North America. Didn't think it was that cold at first glance.

[Phil]

I'm actually pleasantly surprised to see -42C in western North America. Didn't think it was that cold at first glance.

There is? The coldest I see is -36.8C

[Deweydog]

The resolution leaves something to be desired..guess it’s an epic run for Tim/Andrew/etc. Not sure about the super lowland folks but that’s not my area of expertise.

 

Poor Bryant. Maybe some kind hearted folks in Lincoln City can truck some up there and dump it on his lawn.

[Kayla]

There is? The coldest I see is -37C.

 

Fahrenheit. You caught it before my edit! 

[Phil]

Fahrenheit. You caught it before my edit!

Oh, haha. In that case, brrr. Though I guess given snowcover that’s not too surprising.

 

Verbatim, of course.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

D+11 00Z GFS ANALOG COMPOSITE showing a very high correlation score for the last week of January 1969. I will take something like that. It snowed almost 4 feet in Eugene the last week of January 1969.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[Phil]

(OT). The dewpoint has dropped by ~ 60*F here in 24hrs.

 

I’m trying to recall the last time that happened, but I’m drawing a blank.

[Phil]

D+11 00Z GFS ANALOG COMPOSITE showing a very high correlation score for the last week of January 1969. I will take something like that. It snowed almost 4 feet in Eugene the last week of January 1969.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

All of those periods had SSW events too. Hmm..

[Guest Dome Buster]

Debate is a healthy part of online discussion, and in fact many relationships. People have different opinions, and it's one way to learn, both for yourself and from others. Just depends on how it's done.

Phil is a very unhappy little child. He has proven it many times with the things he says. You can only hide behind pseudo-acronymic science blabbering for so long. It gets tiring. Maybe when he gets older he will understand that real weather forecasting involves relating to the masses.

 

He screwed up his whole winter forecast including Xmas day over here and points east. I described and forecasted it perfectly with plain English. Jesse called me a fake forecaster but I was right on point. I know how to analyze weather maps and real time visible satellite pictures.

[ShawniganLake]

Phil is a very unhappy little child. He has proven it many times with the things he says. You can only hide behind pseudo-acronymic science blabbering for so long. It gets tiring. Maybe when he gets older he will understand that real weather forecasting involves relating to the masses.

 

He screwed up his whole winter forecast including Xmas day over here and points east. I described and forecasted it perfectly with plain English. Jesse called me a fake forecaster but I was right on point. I know how to analyze weather maps and real time visible satellite pictures.

Aren’t you a teenager?

[Phil]

The 00z GEFS members are all over the freaking map by the end of the run. Like, literally almost every solution imagineable shows up.

[Gradient Keeper]

LOL D**n even I might have to get some Jiffy Pop going

 

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6z GFS in 3 hours 35 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Really good run tonight.  Looks like we might be closing in on something.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing to see all of those Jan 1969 analogs showing up.

[ShawniganLake]

Since tropical tidbits isn’t working for the CMC

[snow_wizard]

It's just a start. Please think positively. We need to believe. 

 

It's hard to imagine anyone not being encouraged by this GFS run.  there have been a number a decent runs the past two days now.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 2

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/048/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Phil]

Flatiron was right about the 00z GEFS. Clusterf**k.

[Phil]

(I hit the delete button instead of the edit button. Apologies for the repost).

 

Phil is a very unhappy little child. He has proven it many times with the things he says. You can only hide behind pseudo-acronymic science blabbering for so long. It gets tiring. Maybe when he gets older he will understand that real weather forecasting involves relating to the masses.

 

He screwed up his whole winter forecast including Xmas day over here and points east. I described and forecasted it perfectly with plain English. Jesse called me a fake forecaster but I was right on point. I know how to analyze weather maps and real time visible satellite pictures.

I didn’t screw the whole thing up. December went pretty much how I thought, and I never made an “Xmas forecast”.

 

The progression after Xmas got messed up for a number of reasons, but I didn’t *plan* for that to happen. I tried to get it right, but you know, sometimes it just doesn’t work out that way. If you think you can do better, then by all means, make your own seasonal forecast and post it here. I’m sure we’d all be interested in reading it.

 

Oh, and FWIW, I’m perfectly happy. Most of my friends think of me as the jester type, actually. And unlike your sorry a**, I don’t feel the need to degrade women or initiate character attacks.

[Phil]

Making America White Again.

Oh lord.

[Phil]

This Euro run is way different, even at 48hrs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/096/500h_anom.na.png