Jump to content

January Weather In the PNW


stuffradio

Recommended Posts

The Euro is going to piss us off

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This run looks bad for CA to this point, but Day 5 looks like the trough is digging further south.

I think the ridge goes, but the surf zone is already equatorward on this run by 84hrs, which suggests to me that the NPAC block will be weaker and/or farther west this run in the d7-10 range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At one week out the ECMWF certainly agrees with the GFS on very low AO.  Jan 1969 had a good trifecta of very minus PNA, NAO, and AO. 

 

The GFS has the PNA at -3 at day 10.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, this run is almost certainly wrong over Eurasia and the NW-Pacific, regardless of how it turns out.

 

Edit: Eh, well, it probably is. I don’t want to speak too confidently about something that far off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Day 9

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/216/500h_anom.na.png

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

Man, that’s almost 100% reliant on the Greenland/Baffin Bay block.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is that a retracted EPAC Hadley Cell @ D10?

 

If that verifies, it’d be more shocking than Trump winning the 2016 election. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At one week out the ECMWF certainly agrees with the GFS on very low AO. Jan 1969 had a good trifecta of very minus PNA, NAO, and AO.

 

The GFS has the PNA at -3 at day 10.

January 1943 had -WPO/-EPO/-PNA/-AO/-NAO.

 

Would be crazy to repeat that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Dome Buster

(I hit the delete button instead of the edit button. Apologies for the repost).

 

 

I didn’t screw the whole thing up. December went pretty much how I thought, and I never made an “Xmas forecast”.

 

The progression after Xmas got messed up for a number of reasons, but I didn’t *plan* for that to happen. I tried to get it right, but you know, sometimes it just doesn’t work out that way. If you think you can do better, then by all means, make your own seasonal forecast and post it here. I’m sure we’d all be interested in reading it.

 

Oh, and FWIW, I’m perfectly happy. Most of my friends think of me as the jester type, actually. And unlike your sorry a**, I don’t feel the need to degrade women or initiate character attacks.

Fair enough. I don't degrade women. They are just jokes.

 

I do know that long range forecasts are a very fickle thing, a lot like people.

 

You do know that anything past 5 days is around 15-20% accuracy. If that. It's ok to stick your neck out there but we all know it is a guess, a poor guess at best.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

January 1943 had -WPO/-EPO/-PNA/-AO/-NAO.

 

Would be crazy to repeat that.

 

I'm not surprised.  That was some extreme blocking on that one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fog advisory has been issued for Vancouver Island. That’s exciting

 

I was going to mention the fog here is ridiculous tonight.  It formed very rapidly.  Probably the warmest dense fog I've ever seen in January with a current temp of 46.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Should be an interesting night shift. Didn't expect both the GFS and EC ops to show an inch of snow out to 240

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z ECMWF was a little cooler than the 12Z run.... but still does not have a day below 40 in Seattle over the next 10 days.     The coolest day appears to be next Friday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS and ECMWF control are both progressive with the pattern all the way through day 15.   

 

Mountains are certainly going to do well in this chilly onshore flow pattern.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 with light fog here.

 

51 and clear here (53 in North Bend)... mesonet map shows lots of lows 50s along the foothills tonight.    I see low 50s across parts of the Portland area as well... from Troutdale to Tigard.   Impressive for the middle of the night...

 

Untitled.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The German ICON looks promising for next weekend. I'm liking our chances from about the 20th into early February. Troughing was hard to come by in December, we now seem to be entering a pattern where the PNW will be favored for troughing. Many runs have also been showing ridging building into the Bering Strait / Western AK. IMO, there are more possibilities for this to evolve favorably than the ridgefest we had in early December.

 

icon_z500_mslp_namer_61.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The German ICON looks promising for next weekend. I'm liking our chances from about the 20th into early February. Troughing was hard to come by in December, we now seem to be entering a pattern where the PNW will be favored for troughing. Many runs have also been showing ridging building into the Bering Strait / Western AK. IMO, there are more possibilities for this to evolve favorably than the ridgefest we had in early December.

 

 

Yeah, I completely agree. Seems probable that the Asian jet is held back near or west of the date line. If so, Winter will arrive over BC, WA, OR with full force. I like our chances now far more than back in December. I'm sticking with my January 22nd - 29th prediction.

 

--

12z GFS in 4 hours 18 minutes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unfortunately not much hope in the ensembles. If anything Phil's +PNA signal is starting to emerge by the end of the month.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Typical January morning... 57 degrees in Snoqualmie and 54 in North Bend at 6:30 a.m.  

 

 

nb_1_14.png

 

Currently sitting at 40 here under clear skies. About as warm as  it gets this time of year with clear skies and calm winds...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CFS now showing a very strong cold signal for February. It shows conditions below normal Jan. 20-27 and then rebounding to near normal 27-Feb. 3, before going well below average the next 3 weeks.

 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png

 

And wet...This would be -PNA I assume...

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mid 50s right now on the Oregon coast. Unreal.

 

Most valley locations are in the 30s, save PDX which is at 45. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...