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2018 California/Southwest Weather Thread

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#1
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 31 December 2017 - 10:10 PM

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California had record rainfall and snowfall last winter followed by record dryness this past fall and early winter. This created lots of fuel for the past December's wildfires, including the Thomas Fire, which is the largest in modern California history. The Pacific Northwest also had record rainfall last winter followed by record dryness the past summer, which led to similar fire problems there. Sadly, people say these changes from one extreme to another could be a feature of climate change.

 

As 2018 begins, Southern California still awaits its first significant storm of the 2017-18 water year. Will it ever rain again?

 

First week of 2018 looks to be mostly dry in Southern California with some rain possible for Central and Northern California.



#2
happ

Posted 31 December 2017 - 11:35 PM

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The safe call is for skepticism as the models are all over the place. The degree of frustration is causing interpersonal conflict on Weather West  :lol: But seriously, we are in serious trouble. I'm holding off on irrigating some large trees on the slope, hoping it will rain. At least we are not on water restrictions yet so we can't go to jail for overwatering.



#3
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:52 AM

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I truly am wondering if California is cursed but then I look at the positive departures in places like Alaska/ Arctic and soberly realize the extent of global warming. Looking back 4-5 years you see examples of extremely high temperatures occurring in winter/ spring: Jan 2014 average max: 76.3°, March 2015 aver max : 81.0, Feb 2016: 79.5°. Very warm and humid summers. And with the exception of last year's rain total, every year has experienced well below or barely normal rainfall since 2011. 

 

This winter's Baja ridge hasn't allowed any kind of moisture though some areas lucked out on monsoon showers [ie. Palm Springs] last summer. Pacific NW is relatively dry also but w/ at least intrusions of modified arctic air on occasion. I don't want extreme cold only because California agriculture is so important but it would be nice for some sub 40° minimums. Last minimums in the 30's were in Jan 2013 [3 nights in a row].

 

I originally posted this in the old California thread, not realizing that a 2018 thread had been created.

 

I have been saying this from time to time over on Weather West. That is, I am really beginning to believe that the industrialization of Asia, particularly China and India, during the last 20 years has led to insane amounts of emissions and pollution that is affecting the Arctic region, causing a lot of this recent warmth and ice melt. I know that there has been a slow warming trend in the past from emissions such as CO2 going back further, but it seems that the warming and melting has really accelerated starting in the late 1990's and especially the 2000's to the present. There has been a huge amount of manufacturing that has been outsourced from the United States and other Western countries since the 1990's and the timing of all this seems to correlate with the rapid warming. As a result of this manufacturing, there have been more coal plants built, and the amount of coal burning going on in Asia has skyrocketed in recent years, which is one of the main reasons the air quality has been so awful in the large metro areas of China and India.

 

The warming of the Arctic I feel has led to changes in our climate here in CA, and all this very warm and drier than normal weather in recent years I believe is a result of this in one way or another. This is all simply an opinion of mine, but the more I see things, the more compelling it is becoming to me.


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#4
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:53 AM

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Happy New Year everyone! Let's hope the New Year will bring us a positive change in the overall weather pattern so that we finally get beneficial rain and mountain snow statewide.



#5
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 January 2018 - 07:14 AM

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Someone needs to pin this.

Fog has not reached this far inland, but it did yesterday and still could push in after sunrise.

#6
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:23 AM

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Attached File  KFULTemps2017.png   22.8KB   0 downloads

Attached File  KFULDepAvg2017.png   21.64KB   0 downloads

Attached File  KFULPrecip2017.png   16.13KB   0 downloads


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#7
Eujunga

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:28 AM

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I know personal weather station numbers don't mean much, but I ran a +10.5 average temperature departure for December -- far and away the warmest in my 25 year record.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#8
happ

Posted 01 January 2018 - 09:35 AM

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Sky over Orange county this morning

 

@OCSkywarn

 

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#9
richard mann

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:02 AM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/


---twitter_logo-t12.png

#10
Thunder98

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:05 PM

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uPnpklJ.png


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#11
happ

Posted 01 January 2018 - 03:06 PM

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Not very encouraging, Richard :(



#12
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 January 2018 - 06:38 PM

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Not very encouraging, Richard :(

 

It does sound more promising going from January 8 to January 16, when he is predicting a southward movement of colder air, which I am assuming is a trough over our area. The 6-10 Day Outlook above actually correlates to this time quite well, so maybe we will finally see some action during the second week of January.



#13
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 January 2018 - 07:42 AM

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Dense fog this morning has survived the weak offshore flow and high cloud shield.

Tonight's sunset is the latest of any day of the work week since Daylight Saving Time ended, but sunrise will continue to get a few seconds later each day until January 7 or 8.

Otherwise the forecast sounds like a broken record for the next week. partly cloudy every day with very slight chances of light rain at times.

#14
happ

Posted 02 January 2018 - 10:19 AM

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The difference this month is that the chance of rain is greater w/ more clouds than in Dec. Eventually rain has to occur.

 

Monday: 72/ 51



#15
happ

Posted 02 January 2018 - 01:33 PM

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CPC has been singing this tune for the longest time!

 

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#16
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 January 2018 - 05:38 PM

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NWS sites are running very slow today.

 

Most of the day had sunshine, but thick high clouds returned just in time for sunset, which did not allow me to see the higher sun position on my first day back at work since December 22.



#17
happ

Posted 02 January 2018 - 07:01 PM

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The nuances of the clouds seemed to determine temperature; less cirrus today allowed maximum heating w/ inland 80's. 

 

81/ 55



#18
happ

Posted 02 January 2018 - 09:50 PM

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Indication of a warm winter night: crickets.



#19
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 January 2018 - 07:35 AM

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No dense fog here this morning, but the high clouds are very thick and there appears to be some virga falling and evaporating in the dry air below.

But wait, there is some dense fog in Miami this morning.

#20
happ

Posted 03 January 2018 - 08:19 AM

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Cloudy/ windy night held the temp in the 60's overnight. Rain is close but the ridge hangs on for another day, it appears.

 

L: 63



#21
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 January 2018 - 02:07 PM

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Lots of clouds today. Some rain is falling in Central California.



#22
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 January 2018 - 04:55 PM

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Significant rain chances still one week away and the cutoff low is a weatherman's woe. Hopefully the rain chances stick in the forecast and don't die out at the last minute.

Lots of clouds today and virga also seen throughout the day, but nothing reached the ground.
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#23
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 January 2018 - 05:09 PM

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Monterey only got a trace of rain so far.
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#24
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 04 January 2018 - 07:42 AM

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The sun is back out this morning with latest sunrise date 3 days away. It has been one month since the earliest sunset and since then we have gained a little over 13 1/2 minutes in the afternoon.

Models still not able to come into full agreement for next week's storm.
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#25
happ

Posted 04 January 2018 - 11:37 AM

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Still waiting for rain. European model shows significant rain totals especially in Santa Barbara & Ventura counties next week. 

 

@SoCalWxWatcher

 

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#26
Thunder98

Posted 04 January 2018 - 04:13 PM

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The airport received 0.31". The rain station in Orcutt received 0.38" The storm overperformed in my area.

 

 

Attached File  24hourraintotals.PNG   377.11KB   0 downloads


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#27
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 04 January 2018 - 04:58 PM

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We may get some good rain next week. Only problem is possible mudslides in the burn areas. Also I'm not sure why Creek Fire has been stuck at 98% containment ever since the Winter Solstice. Hopefully the rain will get it to 100%. Unless we get some unexpected rain overnight, San Diego will have it's driest water year up to January 5 on record.

Also today was the first day the sun was up above the hills when I left work since mid-November. The sunsets are already later than when Standard Time started on November 5. With just over 10 hours of daylight for the first time since about December 8, everything has shifted by about 13 minutes (sunrise, solar noon, and sunset).

I'm hoping for some major rain next week, but there are still chances for things to change, especially with a cutoff low.
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#28
happ

Posted 04 January 2018 - 05:21 PM

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Hope this warm/ dry month will eventually transition into winter some day soon.

 

77/ 56



#29
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 04 January 2018 - 06:30 PM

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Still waiting for rain. European model shows significant rain totals especially in Santa Barbara & Ventura counties next week. 

 

@SoCalWxWatcher

 

That would be great news for Lake Cachuma it it verifies! Not only that, it is good news for all of Socal.



#30
happ

Posted 04 January 2018 - 06:34 PM

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That would be great news for Lake Cachuma it it verifies! Not only that, it is good news for all of Socal.

 

Yeah, it could cause mudslides but that is just collateral damage in a desperately dry year.



#31
happ

Posted 04 January 2018 - 07:21 PM

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Beautiful sunset in San Diego tonight

 

@SDjimgrant

 

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#32
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 05 January 2018 - 12:28 PM

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A marine layer sits over the ocean today, but not many clouds reached the land except near Santa Barbara.

NWS LA and NWS San Diego are in disagreement over which day of the weekend will be warmer.

#33
Thunder98

Posted 05 January 2018 - 03:57 PM

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The Big Storm is coming! Can't wait!

 

Attached File  SantaMariaNWSforecast48.PNG   398.21KB   0 downloads


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#34
Thunder98

Posted 05 January 2018 - 04:12 PM

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The Marine layer is already gone and thick Altostratus clouds completely fills the sky.

 


#35
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 05 January 2018 - 04:52 PM

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Thicker high clouds are arriving here as well. San Diego has officially had its driest start to the water year since records began being kept in 1850.
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#36
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 05 January 2018 - 05:11 PM

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Lack of semitransparent high clouds have made for a boring sunset.


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#37
happ

Posted 05 January 2018 - 07:19 PM

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Welcomed rainfall for all of California

 

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#38
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 06 January 2018 - 07:32 AM

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It's foggy this morning. One good thing about the upcoming storm is that it should mix out this stagnant, hazy air for a while.


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#39
Thunder98

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:00 AM

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Welcomed rainfall for all of California

 

Expect for the Imperial Valley, Looks like very little to rain there unfortunately. Though it's a extremely dry desert anyways. 



#40
happ

Posted 06 January 2018 - 11:12 AM

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Really enjoying the onshore flow after weeks and weeks of very low dew points. I kept the bedroom window open overnight to let the moist coolness in like a humidifier for my fever [caught the flu] and actually dreamt of showers. 

 

Friday: 74/ 58

 

NWS_SD is increasing projected rain totals

 

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#41
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 06 January 2018 - 03:23 PM

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June Gloom situation at the beaches with high clouds elsewhere. If the high clouds do not become opaque before sunset, we should have a nice one tonight.

Hopefully the forecasted rain storm does not weaken and pounds the Thomas Fire area without causing any mudslides.

#42
happ

Posted 06 January 2018 - 09:14 PM

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It has been almost a year since we've had this kind of winter weather. Sorry for the burn areas though.  

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
651 PM PST Sat Jan 6 2018

...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND VERY STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

.A strong storm system will generate strong and potentially
damaging southerly winds gusting up to 70 mph across the mountains
of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, including Interstate 5 near
the Grapevine. Light snowfall could begin at the higher elevations
Monday afternoon, with heavier snowfall possible Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. Snow levels will rapidly drop early
Tuesday morning, with scattered snow showers persisting into
Tuesday evening. Snow levels will initially be 8000 to 9000 feet
Monday into Monday night, lowering rapidly to 4000 to 5000 feet on
Tuesday. There will still be enough moisture to potentially bring
light snow and icy conditions across the Interstate 5 Corridor
near the Grapevine Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

CAZ054-071330-
/O.NEW.KLOX.WS.A.0001.180109T0000Z-180110T0600Z/
Los Angeles County Mountains excluding the Santa Monica Range-
Including the cities of Acton, Mount Wilson, and Sandberg
651 PM PST Sat Jan 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Winter Storm Watch, which is in effect from Monday afternoon
through Tuesday evening.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 to 18 inches above 8000 feet, 3 to 6
  inches between 6000 and 8000 feet, and 1 to 3 inches possible
  between 4000 and 6000 feet.

* SNOW LEVELS...Initially 8000 to 9000 feet Monday into Monday
  night, lowering rapidly to 4000 to 5000 feet Tuesday.

* WINDS...Southerly winds 25 to 40 mph with damaging gusts to 70
  mph possible. Strongest at higher elevations and near the
  Grapevine.

* IMPACTS...Heavy snow, gusty winds, low visibilities in blowing
  snow and icy roads make for dangerous driving conditions and
  could lead to road closures and travel delays. In addition,
  extended exposure to cold and wind could be life threatening.
  Light snow accumulations and icy conditions will be possible for
  Interstate 5 near the Grapevine Tuesday into Tuesday evening


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#43
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:46 AM

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Really enjoying the onshore flow after weeks and weeks of very low dew points. I kept the bedroom window open overnight to let the moist coolness in like a humidifier for my fever [caught the flu] and actually dreamt of showers. 

 

Friday: 74/ 58

 

NWS_SD is increasing projected rain totals

 

The flu has really been going around recently. I have been sick since the day after Christmas, and just now have begun to feel better the last 2 days. Apparently the flu vaccine hasn't been very effective on one of the predominant flu strains this year. I have hardly ever caught the flu since getting a flu shot on a regular basis, but I believe I have been fighting the flu over the last 2 weeks.


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#44
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:39 AM

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The flu has really been going around recently. I have been sick since the day after Christmas, and just now have begun to feel better the last 2 days. Apparently the flu vaccine hasn't been very effective on one of the predominant flu strains this year. I have hardly ever caught the flu since getting a flu shot on a regular basis, but I believe I have been fighting the flu over the last 2 weeks.


I was in California for Christmas. There was a stomach bug going around my family. I was deathly afraid I'd be lucky enough to catch it on the plane ride back. Miraculously, I didn't catch it at all.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 0

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

 

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season (so far): 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#45
happ

Posted 07 January 2018 - 09:13 AM

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The flu has really been going around recently. I have been sick since the day after Christmas, and just now have begun to feel better the last 2 days. Apparently the flu vaccine hasn't been very effective on one of the predominant flu strains this year. I have hardly ever caught the flu since getting a flu shot on a regular basis, but I believe I have been fighting the flu over the last 2 weeks.

 

I was sick as a dog [per the peculiar saying] and surprised since I had the flu shot. Also had a nagging cold earlier in December and wonder if the dry dusty winds this autumn/ winter played a role in the worst allergy season I can recall.



#46
happ

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:07 AM

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Fog socked in the coast/ basin and some valley areas this morning but all eyes are on the developing storm :)

 

Saturday: 70/ 59



#47
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:56 AM

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Marine layer fog burned off here late this morning while the Central Valley is having their infamous tule fog. We had our latest sunrise of the year this morning in Standard Time.



#48
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 07 January 2018 - 04:04 PM

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Lots of high clouds again giving another chance for a nice sunset tonight. Sunset times become later than 5 PM this week. Still waiting for the big storm.

#49
happ

Posted 07 January 2018 - 04:36 PM

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Very pleasant pop-up ridge before the trough offshore moves in.

 

75/ 55



#50
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 08 January 2018 - 07:09 AM

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Light rain this morning, but nothing measurable.