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2018 California/Southwest Weather Thread


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California had record rainfall and snowfall last winter followed by record dryness this past fall and early winter. This created lots of fuel for the past December's wildfires, including the Thomas Fire, which is the largest in modern California history. The Pacific Northwest also had record rainfall last winter followed by record dryness the past summer, which led to similar fire problems there. Sadly, people say these changes from one extreme to another could be a feature of climate change.

 

As 2018 begins, Southern California still awaits its first significant storm of the 2017-18 water year. Will it ever rain again?

 

First week of 2018 looks to be mostly dry in Southern California with some rain possible for Central and Northern California.

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The safe call is for skepticism as the models are all over the place. The degree of frustration is causing interpersonal conflict on Weather West  :lol: But seriously, we are in serious trouble. I'm holding off on irrigating some large trees on the slope, hoping it will rain. At least we are not on water restrictions yet so we can't go to jail for overwatering.

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I truly am wondering if California is cursed but then I look at the positive departures in places like Alaska/ Arctic and soberly realize the extent of global warming. Looking back 4-5 years you see examples of extremely high temperatures occurring in winter/ spring: Jan 2014 average max: 76.3°, March 2015 aver max : 81.0, Feb 2016: 79.5°. Very warm and humid summers. And with the exception of last year's rain total, every year has experienced well below or barely normal rainfall since 2011. 

 

This winter's Baja ridge hasn't allowed any kind of moisture though some areas lucked out on monsoon showers [ie. Palm Springs] last summer. Pacific NW is relatively dry also but w/ at least intrusions of modified arctic air on occasion. I don't want extreme cold only because California agriculture is so important but it would be nice for some sub 40° minimums. Last minimums in the 30's were in Jan 2013 [3 nights in a row].

 

I originally posted this in the old California thread, not realizing that a 2018 thread had been created.

 

I have been saying this from time to time over on Weather West. That is, I am really beginning to believe that the industrialization of Asia, particularly China and India, during the last 20 years has led to insane amounts of emissions and pollution that is affecting the Arctic region, causing a lot of this recent warmth and ice melt. I know that there has been a slow warming trend in the past from emissions such as CO2 going back further, but it seems that the warming and melting has really accelerated starting in the late 1990's and especially the 2000's to the present. There has been a huge amount of manufacturing that has been outsourced from the United States and other Western countries since the 1990's and the timing of all this seems to correlate with the rapid warming. As a result of this manufacturing, there have been more coal plants built, and the amount of coal burning going on in Asia has skyrocketed in recent years, which is one of the main reasons the air quality has been so awful in the large metro areas of China and India.

 

The warming of the Arctic I feel has led to changes in our climate here in CA, and all this very warm and drier than normal weather in recent years I believe is a result of this in one way or another. This is all simply an opinion of mine, but the more I see things, the more compelling it is becoming to me.

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Not very encouraging, Richard :(

 

It does sound more promising going from January 8 to January 16, when he is predicting a southward movement of colder air, which I am assuming is a trough over our area. The 6-10 Day Outlook above actually correlates to this time quite well, so maybe we will finally see some action during the second week of January.

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Dense fog this morning has survived the weak offshore flow and high cloud shield.

 

Tonight's sunset is the latest of any day of the work week since Daylight Saving Time ended, but sunrise will continue to get a few seconds later each day until January 7 or 8.

 

Otherwise the forecast sounds like a broken record for the next week. partly cloudy every day with very slight chances of light rain at times.

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We may get some good rain next week. Only problem is possible mudslides in the burn areas. Also I'm not sure why Creek Fire has been stuck at 98% containment ever since the Winter Solstice. Hopefully the rain will get it to 100%. Unless we get some unexpected rain overnight, San Diego will have it's driest water year up to January 5 on record.

 

Also today was the first day the sun was up above the hills when I left work since mid-November. The sunsets are already later than when Standard Time started on November 5. With just over 10 hours of daylight for the first time since about December 8, everything has shifted by about 13 minutes (sunrise, solar noon, and sunset).

 

I'm hoping for some major rain next week, but there are still chances for things to change, especially with a cutoff low.

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That would be great news for Lake Cachuma it it verifies! Not only that, it is good news for all of Socal.

 

Yeah, it could cause mudslides but that is just collateral damage in a desperately dry year.

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Really enjoying the onshore flow after weeks and weeks of very low dew points. I kept the bedroom window open overnight to let the moist coolness in like a humidifier for my fever [caught the flu] and actually dreamt of showers. 

 

Friday: 74/ 58

 

NWS_SD is increasing projected rain totals

 

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