2018 California/Southwest Weather Thread

[Anti Marine Layer]

We are pretty much at the half way point of astronomical winter and the weather is about as boring as it can get. Day langth is a tiny bit longer than when we began Pacific Standard Time on November 5. So that means pretty much everywhere the sunrise and sunset are a little over 30 minutes later than November 5.

[Guest happ]

It is absurd that the only measurement of change is that today didn't exceed 79F for the first time in over a week.  Per NWS "ensemble mean gives about a 15 percent probability" for rainfall over the upcoming weekend so I guess there is something to hope for. 

 

79/ 58

[Dan the Weatherman]

This dry pattern is getting ridiculous.

 

I am going to go out on a limb and say if we don't have rain by the beginning of March and there is still no rain in sight in the long range by then, then I am going to declare this season over and that it won't rain at all for the rest of winter or early spring.

 

It has been like pulling teeth in recent years to get it to rain in March for some reason.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Damp and overcast right now, which is quite a change, but we won't get any rain out of it, of course.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cooler day today, but the offshore flow is coming back before more onshore flow and cooler weather for the weekend.

[Guest happ]

If winds pick up tonight it will likely be warmer than this morning but still today's minimum was above average in this year without winter.

 

76/ 52

[Guest happ]

This would be a great improvement 

 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=314832

[Anti Marine Layer]

Mornings starting to become noticably lighter now with the sunrise 10 minutes earlier than Winter Solstice. Sunset is 42 minutes later, however. Solar noon is at its latest this weekend and after that we start to gain more light in the morning than the evenings. Despite the Spring Equinox being more than a month ahead, the time of year at which we have the greatest rate of increasing daylight in the evening is behind us.

 

Daylight Saving Time is still in jeopardy of being stopped in California.

[Guest happ]

Prospects look bleak

 

[Guest happ]

Midden/ Death Valley/ Searchlight have higher probabilities due to summer storms, no doubt.

[Guest happ]

http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

 

[Guest happ]

Daniel Swain https://twitter.com/Weather_West

 

"Interesting development: multiple models now suggesting cut-off low pressure system may "retrograde" (drift westward) to position off CA coast next wk. Cut-offs notoriously erratic, unpredictable. But probably at least chance of warm showers & t-storms in SoCal. Stay tuned! #CAwx"

[Guest happ]

Haven't seen this in a while

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is nice to see above normal rain prospects for Socal, but at the same time it would be nice to see that extended into Norcal as well, so the entire state has a chance of above normal precip. It is definitely better than nothing, though, as Socal has been the driest of all the regions.

[Guest happ]

It is nice to see above normal rain prospects for Socal, but at the same time it would be nice to see that extended into Norcal as well, so the entire state has a chance of above normal precip. It is definitely better than nothing, though, as Socal has been the driest of all the regions.

 

It ain't real yet but a sight for sore eyes

[Guest happ]

All NWS stations nearby [Las Vegas/ Flagstaff/ Phoenix/ San Diego] agree that rain will occur next week; maybe several days of moisture for the Southwest. 

 

Maybe no more 90's for a while.

 

84/ 60

 

Neighbors yard this morning

  

[Dan the Weatherman]

That's a nice shot of a Bird of Paradise (Strelitzia reginae) in bloom. The bottom photo looks like either a dragon tree (Dracaena draco) or some type of yucca.

[Guest happ]

That's a nice shot of a Bird of Paradise (Strelitzia reginae) in bloom. The bottom photo looks like either a dragon tree (Dracaena draco) or some type of yucca.

 

Thanks for the identifying the Dracaena trees [wasn't sure exactly what they were]; they look almost prehistoric.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Weather could get interesting next week just when my brother and his wife are here from Germany hoping to enjoy some warm and sunny weather. Timing could not be any better.

 

I still am thinking it will be more just cool and cloudy weather than any significant rain. It would be nice to get some heavy rain and even some thunderstorms if it will be cool and cloudy.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Thanks for the identifying the Dracaena trees [wasn't sure exactly what they were]; they look almost prehistoric.  

 

That definitely looks like a dragon tree now that you showed it at that angle. If it isn't a dragon tree, then it is a very similar species.

[Guest happ]

That definitely looks like a dragon tree now that you showed it at that angle. If it isn't a dragon tree, then it is a very similar species.

 

https://www.gardenia.net/plant/Dracaena-draco-Dragon-Tree

 

Found out that Dragon trees can live 1000 years.

 

Here are smaller trees in San Diego Balboa Park.

 

@jstnaq          

[Dan the Weatherman]

If I remember correctly, I believe there is a dragon tree in front of the Hotel Del Coronado. 

[Guest happ]

Excited by the unfolding SSW event/ cold troughs & favorable POP's next week.   

[Dan the Weatherman]

Excited by the unfolding SSW event/ cold troughs & favorable POP's next week.   

 

I am, too, and I am really hoping the SSW event changes something in the big picture to get us out of this very warm and dry pattern that has been persistent for the most part since 2013.

 

With how bad this drought has been, I have been worried that we may get almost shut out completely of rainfall if this pattern continues unabated. In the past I have never worried about it not raining at all during the winter.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Another warm day at least during the middle of the day, but temperatures dropped quickly in the late afternoon.

 

Looks like the long awaited SSW event is supposed to bring weeks of bitterly cold weather to Europe, but they don't say much about it affecting California or causing a long term pattern change.

[Dylan]

Maybe we will get some normal winter weather for a change this week.  I might even need to pull out some rain gear or a sweatshirt.  i really hope we don't set a record or near record for drought this winter.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Marine layer has become quite deep this morning. It looks like a spring trough pattern. After one last gasp of Santa Ana Winds possible tomorrow, it looks like it will become more winterlike for a while.

[Guest happ]

Minus details of next week's troughiness it looks like rain at least.

 

Friday: 76/ 55  

[Anti Marine Layer]

It will be quite an abrupt shift from onshore flow to offshore flow and back to onshore flow. I don't think I ever remember having Santa Ana Winds forecast one day and rain the next day, even if it's some pathetic marine layer drizzle that amounts to nothing.

A wet Santa Ana pattern is possible next week as well, but models still have a hard time coming into agreement because a cutoff low is a weatherman's woe.

My brother and his wife should enjoy a nice day tomorrow and the rest of the time they are here will not be great weather for them. They return to Berlin on the 21st, and the polar vortex could cause some record cold and snow due to the SSW event. Regardless of what the weather is like over here, it will be much warmer than Europe. My brother met his wife at a concert in Germany with his band, Horse the Band, so now he has a German wife and lives half way across the globe from us.

[Guest happ]

This has been brutal  but NCEP is very encouraging.

 

"..OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED LOW WILL WOBBLE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEEK BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION."

NWS_Sacramento

[Guest happ]

@pppapin

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/962118691096731648

[Anti Marine Layer]

It is so strange to see leaves still falling in the middle of February. This warm winter so far has been very confusing to nature and it will be interesting to see if some of the leaves remain through spring and summer or if the new spring leaves push them out in a month. Looks like tomorrow is warm again, then Monday and Tuesday are cold and then things warm up again mid week even with a continuing chance of showers.

 

One concern is if we get into a prolonged cool pattern, the trees may think fall/winter has finally arrived and they may not get spring leaves until April or May.

[Anti Marine Layer]

@pppapin

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/962118691096731648

 

Sounds like richard mann's kind of stuff.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Julian may get fogged in briefly tonight by the deepening marine layer before it gets cleared back out overnight.

[Anti Marine Layer]

100% humidity in Julian indicates that they are now fogged in and the marine layer depth has exceeded 4200 ft.

[Guest happ]

Winds haven't surfaced here yet but reports of NNE gusts of 40mph in desert/ mountains tonight. Quite a cool down today w/ plenty of stratus.

 

65/ 53  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Clouds are gone. First day below 70 in quite some time here.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Our brief Santa Ana Wind event is not reaching anywhere near the coast, as there were still a few patchy low clouds at 9 AM along with the usual haze of the marine layer inversion.

[Guest happ]

A sobering assessment: https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe